Hwasong-14 as Space Launch Vehicle

[JucheJuiceMan]

Paektusan-1 | Length 24m | Weight 21t

1st stage | Length 12.1m | Diameter 1.25m | Total Weight 13.38t | Propelant 11.15t UDMH/AK27 | Thrust 280kN | Burn 95sec

Interstage Length 0.50m

2nd Stage | Length 9.4m | Diameter 0.88m | Weight 6.8t | Propelant 5.73t UDMH/AK27 | Thrust 135.5kN | Vernier 4 30kN | Burn 90sec

3rd stage | Length 1.5m / 2.5 Fairing | Diameter 0.88m | Weight 0.57t | Propelant 0.52t Solid | Thrust 44.5kN | Burn 27sec | Payload 0.015-0.02t (LEO 218km)

http://www.b14643.de/Spacerockets_1/Rest_World/Paektusan-1/Description/Frame.htm

Hwasong-14 | Length 19.5m | Total Weight 33.8t

1st stage | Length 13.4m | Diameter 1.7m | Weight ? | Propelant 26.64t UDMH/N204 | Thrust 394.1kN | Vernier 4 70kN | Burn 151sec

2nd stage | Length m | Diameter 1.25m | Weight ? | Propelant 2.86t UDMH/N204 | Thrust Vernier 2 35.4kN | Burn 235sec | Payload ?  | Range 12,000km with <300kg payload?

Janes estimates 255 to 360kg weight for North Korean thermonuclear bomb.

http://www.janes.com/images/assets/111/75111/North_Korea_bargains_with_nuclear_diplomacy.pdf

http://www.b14643.de/Spacerockets/Specials/Hwasong-14/index.htm

Unha 3 simulated

Unha 3 OSFS

 

Hwasong-12 simulated

Hwasong-12 | Length 16.5m | Diameter 1.5m | Weight 24.7t | Propelant 21.32t UDMH/N204 | Thrust 394.1kN Vernier 4 70kN | Burn 120sec | Payload 500-650kg?

http://www.b14643.de/Spacerockets/Specials/Hwasong-12/index.htm

Hwasong-14 put few dozen or even one hundred kilogram object into low earth orbit atleast as attempt with Paektusan-1 in 1998 at 218km?

Edited November 3, 2017 by JucheJuiceMan
updated 12's and 14's weight

[DerekL1963]

In theory, any practical ICBM can serve as an orbital launcher.  (And the existence proof of this theory is abundant.)

[mikegarrison]

41 minutes ago, DerekL1963 said:

In theory, any practical ICBM can serve as an orbital launcher.  (And the existence proof of this theory is abundant.)

Well, one might argue that the existence of a "practical ICBM" is yet to be proven, but I'm OK with that continuing to be the case.

[YNM]

Rockets slightly more than 10% the mass of Hwasong-12 can just reach orbit, with the right payload.

 

So all comes down to how good (reliable) the rockets are and how good they are at steering their rockets.

[JucheJuiceMan]

1 hour ago, YNM said:

Rockets slightly more than 10% the mass of Hwasong-12 can just reach orbit, with the right payload.

More fair comparison would be Paektusan-1 due to having 3 stages, 12% of its weight and capable of placing satellite 1/5th the mass that Paektusan-1 was capable of.

So all comes down to how good (reliable) the rockets are and how good they are at steering their rockets.

Both Hwasong 12 and 14 use same engine and last 5 launches were successful, if 6th was to be successful then engine is reliable enough for them to make SLV as capable as Long March 3A and send a satellite to LTO.

 

Edited October 29, 2017 by JucheJuiceMan
minor correction

[YNM]

On 30/10/2017 at 5:34 AM, JucheJuiceMan said:

More fair comparison would be Paektusan-1 due to having 3 stages, 12% of its weight and capable of placing satellite 1/5th the mass that Paektusan-1 was capable of.

(...)

Both Hwasong 12 and 14 use same engine and last 5 launches were successful, if 6th was to be successful then engine is reliable enough for them to make SLV as capable as Long March 3A and send a satellite to LTO.

All of them is about the same. They're as capable as those who have reached orbit I think. You just need someone willing to make them. Here's an example.

Alas, as Von Braun had been misquoted through times, there's the saying : The rocket worked perfectly... except for landing on the wrong planet.

[JucheJuiceMan]

4 hours ago, YNM said:

All of them is about the same. They're as capable as those who have reached orbit I think. You just need someone willing to make them. Here's an example.

Alas, as Von Braun had been misquoted through times, there's the saying : The rocket worked perfectly... except for landing on the wrong planet.

Iran managed to orbit a satelite before North Korea which has been overambitious while Iran was more methodical with development of SLV technology.

Shame that NK didn't try a second time with Paektusan-1 type SLV.

[JucheJuiceMan]

Norbert Brugge has released own weight estimate for Hwasong 12 and 14. Have updated the OP.

[JucheJuiceMan]

Latest ICBM launch by North Korea, 3 missiles apparently.

Vertical 4420km Horizontal 920km https://mobile.twitter.com/RebeccaRambar/status/935604667320553473

Time 53min https://mobile.twitter.com/willripleyCNN/status/935607771742978048?p=v

Range over 13000km with light payload https://mobile.twitter.com/ArmsControlWonk/status/935609727987343360?p=v

Capable of orbiting https://mobile.twitter.com/RocketSchiller/status/935607214013931521?p=v

[DDE]

10 hours ago, JucheJuiceMan said:

light payload

NK’s ambassador boasted to the Russian press that the warhead is supposed to be ‘superheavy’.

Very specific, I know.

[JucheJuiceMan]

15 hours ago, DDE said:

NK’s ambassador boasted to the Russian press that the warhead is supposed to be ‘superheavy’.

Very specific, I know.

They just released pictures...

9-axle truck carries at least 2 meter diameter and at least 21 meter long missile which has two nozzles thus it is complete Paektusan engine with 80 ton thrust thus this missile at least close to 60 tons.

If used as space launch vehicle then dare I say it would be as capable as Unha-3 launcher also I am not surprised by full Paektusan being used as 4475 x 950 x 53 was enough for me to consider such possibility.

This thing can throw a very heavy warhead, if North Koreans wanted they could have MIRV with 3-4 20-30kt nuclear warheads instead of single heavy thermonuclear. BMD is loveed in that case.

[sevenperforce]

Any idea what the putative difference between Hwasong-14 and Hwasong-15 is?

I see three possibilities:

1. This is just Hwasong-14 flying without a payload
2. This is a Hwasong-14, but they are adjusting the mixture ratios in-flight to maximize thrust at launch and maximize ISP before S1 burnout
3. This is a Hwasong-14 with a new upper stage engine

[DerekL1963]

19 minutes ago, sevenperforce said:

Any idea what the putative difference between Hwasong-14 and Hwasong-15 is?

According to what I've seen, the belief is that the -15 is -14 with an improved second stage.

[JucheJuiceMan]

1 hour ago, DerekL1963 said:

According to what I've seen, the belief is that the -15 is -14 with an improved second stage.

I already wrote what Hwasong-15 is from latest available information.

Imagine a SS-18 Satan/R-36, now imagine having it 1/3 of it and truly mobile instead of it being silo only missile.

Simplest way to explain this is that Hwasong-15 is Hwasong-14 times 2.

[sevenperforce]

18 hours ago, DerekL1963 said:

According to what I've seen, the belief is that the -15 is -14 with an improved second stage.

That's not good.

[snip]

[JucheJuiceMan]

[snip]

Hwasong-12 and 14 are precursors to 15. Step by step.

[YNM]

From weight it's kind of like the Topol. But I question it, as Topol is solid yet lighter than the ones from NK, and the NK one is liquid.

Edited November 30, 2017 by YNM

[DerekL1963]

[snip]

17 hours ago, sevenperforce said:

That's not good.

No, it isn't good at all.  The second stage was the key limiter of the -14's performance.

[tater]

The thing looks like a Titan II.

[kerbiloid]

Kinda a copypasted R-29 family.

Edited November 30, 2017 by kerbiloid

[DDE]

2 hours ago, kerbiloid said:

Kinda a copypasted R-29 family.

This makes me wonder: for the purposes of this thread, can they do an UR-500?

[kerbiloid]

12 minutes ago, DDE said:

This makes me wonder: for the purposes of this thread, can they do an UR-500?

This is very early idea of Chelomei's UR-500 rejected even before its project has started.
It has very clear purpose: to make and use the same set of cylinder parts for several rockets with different payloads (UR-100,200,500,530,700).

R-29 is a product of Makeev's bureau, it doesn't relate to the UR family, it's a standalone family of SLBM based on R-27 single-stage rocket.
It wasn't mentioned as a lego rocket kit, its stages are even not separated from each other, its engines are drowned in the fuel, it's completely from another tale.

Edited November 30, 2017 by kerbiloid

[JucheJuiceMan]

[snip]

11 hours ago, kerbiloid said:

This is very early idea of Chelomei's UR-500 rejected even before its project has started.
It has very clear purpose: to make and use the same set of cylinder parts for several rockets with different payloads (UR-100,200,500,530,700).

R-29 is a product of Makeev's bureau, it doesn't relate to the UR family, it's a standalone family of SLBM based on R-27 single-stage rocket.
It wasn't mentioned as a lego rocket kit, its stages are even not separated from each other, its engines are drowned in the fuel, it's completely from another tale.

Hwasong-15 is more like R-36/SS-18 Satan.

The engines used for it are comparable as it is the looks, its smaller size road mobile ICBM that isn't limited to silo launch.

[DDE]

@kerbiloid, a Makeyeev-style “dry SLBM” certainly complicates things, although I’m not sure we can make conclusions with just a few photographs and some expert guesstimates - after all, why would NK go through the trouble of fully emulating an SLBM for land service?

I was talking about the general idea of clustering entire ICBMs to produce a bootstrap launch vehicle, which this thread is about.

[JucheJuiceMan]

5 hours ago, tater said:

The thing looks like a Titan II.

Titan's engines are gimballed/rotateable and would you look at that, Hwasong-15s engine does the same with difference being Titan has two separate engines while 15 has two noozles/chambers and one large preburner feeding them in one package.