Who will be next to land people on the Moon?

[Ol’ Musky Boi]

With a newfound interest, both commercially and internationally, for returning people to the moon - who do you think will make it first?

(Specifically thinking about who gets them there, not necessarily the nationalities of the people involved).

Edited March 23, 2019 by Ol’ Musky Boi

[MaverickSawyer]

China.

[tater]

5 minutes ago, MaverickSawyer said:

China.

China is talking about the 2030s. That's a long time away.

[Ol’ Musky Boi]

28 minutes ago, tater said:

China is talking about the 2030s. That's a long time away.

That is true, but given NASA's currently highly impractical moon mission architecture, SpaceX's probably over-optimistic timelines, and Blue Origin's general focus on unmanned operations (as far as we know) China may still have a fighting chance. Personally I think it's a little too early to tell for sure, so much is subject to change in the next decade. Particularly with NASA, Jim Bridenstine seems to be well aware of the issues with SLS / LOP-G, so they may opt for a Moon-Direct architecture in the future that could put them in the lead again (although that would probably involve a commercial / governmental collaboration, I should add that to the poll).

[tater]

Just now, Ol’ Musky Boi said:

That is true, but given NASA's currently highly impractical moon mission architecture, SpaceX's probably over-optimistic timelines, and Blue Origin's general focus on unmanned operations (as far as we know) China may still have a fighting chance. Personally I think it's a little too early to tell for sure, so much is subject to change in the next decade. Particularly with NASA, Jim Bridenstine seems to be well aware of the issues with SLS / LOP-G, so they may opt for a Moon-Direct architecture in the future that could put them in the lead again (although that would probably involve a commercial / governmental collaboration, I should add that to the poll).

I agree, but that said, the one thing about the SpaceX timeline is that they sort of need to build their next-gen rocket regardless, given even their accelerated dev pace. They have to compete with New Glenn, and I'm pretty confident it flies in the sort of timeframe that Blue has been pitching. The existence of Starship/Super Heavy at pretty much any level of functionality is a game changer, and starts allowing all kinds of choice in architectures for lunar bases. Even just as a LEO vehicle, the mass to orbit is transformative in that space assuming any reuse. Obviously if it doesn't work, we're still in a sort of F9/FH and NG future for a while, which is useful, but not substantially different that what we have already.

[Nivee~]

I also think it is going to be China. Unlike other countries with space programs, they have an added advantage: the ability to focus and chase a goal without any political distractions. Sure, there will be light power tussles, but those would be miniscule, compared to the politicking in democracies.

Nope for Russia, for obvious reasons... *coughcrewdragoncough*

Blue Origins is painfully slow and has no ambition to land on the moon, unless there's profit in it...

America...hmmm....why is that even an option??

An international effort? Nope, just nope... It's like a project group in school... two kids will do all the work in a group of 6, and when the project is completed, all 6 will fight to take credit....... I am pretty sure it would take them 2 years to decide on the decals of the spaceship.. And another year to decide who's going to walk on the Moon first, and we still can't discount a particularly zealous Taikonaut, shoving a Cosmonaut and a Gaganaut aside to be the first to walk on the moon, shouting "HAIL HYDRA!!"

But by the Gods i want SpaceX to win!!

[Bill Phil]

Considering the sheer number of super-heavies in development in the US... probably the USA, though likely in the form of a government/commercial partnership.

[Canopus]

Considering the launch cadence of manned Chinese Spacecraft and current plans to build a modular Space station, i highly doubt it will be the chinese. 

Next on the moon will be the ISS partners. With or without SpaceX as on of many launch providers.

Edited March 23, 2019 by Canopus

[tater]

3 hours ago, Nivee~ said:

Blue Origins is painfully slow and has no ambition to land on the moon, unless there's profit in it...

This is entirely wrong on the second part. Blue Origin is Jeff Bezos doing philanthropy (in his mind). Making money would be desirable, but he is very much like Musk in his goal. BO exists so that "millions of humans will live and work in space." That's his goal, not making money (he already owns a money factory). Since he's a Gerry O'Neill fan, he's actually all about the Moon.

I'll admit they are very gradatim, I hope that once NG flies things speed up some.

Edited March 24, 2019 by tater

[sevenperforce]

40 minutes ago, tater said:

This is entirely wrong on the second part. Blue Origin is Jeff Bezos doing philanthropy (in his mind). Making money would be desirable, but he is very much like Musk in his goal. BO exists so that "millions of humans will live and work in space." That's his goal, not making money (he already owns a money factory). Since he's a Gerry O'Neill fan, he's actually all about the Moon.

I'll admit they are very gradatim, I hope that once NG flies things speed up some.

SpaceX beats BO by a year or two. I fanboy a bit over SpaceX sometimes, but on this point it is clear. Mars is aspirational; Luna is firmly within reach.

[magnemoe]

Its three players, China, SpaceX and Blue origin. SpaceX looks to be in lead now even if New Glen is much nearer to fly than we suspect and beat starship simply because starship is more capable. 
If its not China it will be they who pays for the mission. It might be well be NASA, the IIS group or some millionaire like the Japanese who bought the moon flyby. 

[tater]

40 minutes ago, sevenperforce said:

SpaceX beats BO by a year or two. I fanboy a bit over SpaceX sometimes, but on this point it is clear. Mars is aspirational; Luna is firmly within reach. 

I agree with this completely.

The Moon is certain for SpaceX assuming Starship works. That's a huge if, no question, but it's a real thing now, and it's making progress, so we'll have some answers in a surprisingly short time span I think. Blue is much more opaque.

[StrandedonEarth]

At this point, it seems like launch vehicles aren't a problem. The winner will be whoever come up with a lunar lander. And since Starship is designed to land and be refuelled (not necessarily in that order) that gives SpaceX an edge, if it works as planned

[kerbiloid]

Either SpaceX or SLS/Orion, to plant one more flag and forget about the Moon for next several decades until the nukes.

[Ol’ Musky Boi]

5 hours ago, StrandedonEarth said:

At this point, it seems like launch vehicles aren't a problem. The winner will be whoever come up with a lunar lander. And since Starship is designed to land and be refuelled (not necessarily in that order) that gives SpaceX an edge, if it works as planned

I agree. There are so many heavy lift vehicles in development that at this point the only hurdle is the lunar hardware. This is why I see a governmental / commercial collaboration as the most likely future, SpaceX and Blue Origin don't really have the money or the workforce to design and maintain a lunar base on their own. And NASA (i.e the US government) won't ignore the capabilities of commercial LVs when SLS class boosters come online (Starship / New Armstrong?). In many ways we are already seeing this happening: NASA has repeatedly said that if commercial alternatives to the SLS exist then they will be utilised, and in a recent Senate hearing with Jim Bridenstine (director of NASA) they even discussed launching EM-1 on a commercial rocket! It's not too much of a stretch to imagine a commercial crew programme but for resupplying a moon base (we've already got the commercial lunar payload services), that way NASA could build and operate the base but the recurring costs would be minimal, making it more popular with the government and less likely to be cancelled.

Edited March 24, 2019 by Ol’ Musky Boi

[Codraroll]

Whoever lands next on the Moon, I think it will ultimately be China who makes them go there. If the Chinese economy was to dip, or social unrest began to stir, announcing a Moon landing would be a very useful thing to re-ignite some national pride and faith in the Chinese government. A reminder of national grandeur for the population to rally behind. Unlike the various American players, China actually has a reason to launch a Moon program. Sure, NASA and co. would probably like the PR, but they're in no hurry and the benefits aren't quite justifying the costs. But China would use it to divert attention from really pressing matters, they could feasibly be put in a situation where they "need" to land on the Moon.

The US government would probably take it as a challenge, though, and get the private companies stirring to get there first. So they could probably win another Moon race, but they wouldn't be the ones to initiate it.

[YNM]

Too early to tell.

But we don't know if anyone is hiding something up their bottom...

[Green Baron]

Though it touches politics, that is a point imo. Footprints on the moon is a mere status / prestige thing. There is nothing of interest there, at least nothing robots couldn't accomplish or mess up :-)

I don't know who's next, if at all. Maybe one of the private companies. Just to show that they can do it and keep up the funding and public attention.

[Starstruck69]

My money is on China i think they have a point to prove. It has to be a good thing that we have a few in the race though. Hopefully it stirs up more funding for space exploration..

[Ol’ Musky Boi]

2 hours ago, Starstruck69 said:

My money is on China i think they have a point to prove. It has to be a good thing that we have a few in the race though. Hopefully it stirs up more funding for space exploration..

Absolutely, competition drives innovation (just look at the space race).

Also, welcome to the forums!

[Starstruck69]

Thanks Musky 

[sevenperforce]

10 hours ago, tater said:

I agree with this completely.

The Moon is certain for SpaceX assuming Starship works. That's a huge if, no question, but it's a real thing now, and it's making progress, so we'll have some answers in a surprisingly short time span I think. Blue is much more opaque.

Elon's transpiration cooling approach had me a little worried about margins for success, but with a metallic TPS as sacrificial fallback then it's much more viable. 

Even without actually landing Starship on the Moon, the ability to send 150 tonnes to LEO for unbelievably cheap enables virtually any lunar landing architecture anyone would want. 

[tater]

3 minutes ago, sevenperforce said:

Even without actually landing Starship on the Moon, the ability to send 150 tonnes to LEO for unbelievably cheap enables virtually any lunar landing architecture anyone would want. 

Yeah, exactly.

I'm seriously wondering about the plume interaction with the unprepared lunar surface for something as huge as Starship, too.

[Green Baron]

@Starstruck69, your first post ? Welcome !

[Starstruck69]

Thanks baron:))