totm april 2020 Coronavirus

[Spacescifi]

9 hours ago, tater said:

This is cool:

 

 

I am not surprised.

German culture is renowned for both efficiency and punctuality.

It's the same reason they were able to hold their own, at least for a while before losing in two world wars.

Every culture has something they excel at.

[kerbiloid]

11 hours ago, tater said:

He said that he was called to intubate a guy, he put his full gear on (taped seams, no air in except through filter), and asked the patient if he could roll over onto his stomach. the guy did, and his O₂ sat almost instantly shot up where he didn't need to be vented. That was a couple days ago, guy is still breathing on his own.

Let them have a bed with a big hole against the belly and elastic net below to support.

[TheSaint]

32 minutes ago, kerbiloid said:

Let them have a bed with a big hole against the belly and elastic net below to support.

Someone needs to get in touch with a patent lawyer....

[kerbiloid]

I offically declare this idea a public property (unless it's already patented).

Edited April 12, 2020 by kerbiloid

[tater]

6 minutes ago, kerbiloid said:

I offically declare this idea a public property (unless it's already patented).

This "donut bed" could also have a way to feed the fat prone person donuts (to maintain their body geometry during this difficult period).

[kerbiloid]

8 minutes ago, tater said:

This "donut bed" could also have a way to feed the fat prone person donuts (to maintain their body geometry during this difficult period).

Btw. The pillow for pregnants.

Spoiler

The reason differs, but the principle is the same.

Edited April 12, 2020 by kerbiloid

[tater]

Navajo Nation (~350k people) has half the number of cases as NM (2.095M people).

https://www.krqe.com/health/coronavirus-new-mexico/navajo-nation-confirms-101-new-cases-of-covid-19-total-now-to-698/

Wow.

[tater]

 

And this is interesting:

 

[insert_name]

sounds like the PRC is censoring research into the coronavirus

https://www.newsweek.com/china-censoring-research-covid-19-origins-deleted-page-wuhan-university-website-suggests-1497467

[tater]

The Los Alamos paper I mentioned up the thread with the crazy high R₀:

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article#tnF1

R₀ 5.7 (range: 3.8 - 8.9)

Herd immunity @ 82% of population.

Only question I really have is that if R₀ is that high, what % must have already had this by now?

 

On the continuing "don't be obese" front:

https://www.zdnet.com/article/nyu-scientists-largest-u-s-study-of-covid-19-finds-obesity-the-single-biggest-factor-in-new-york-critical-cases/

And the paper discussed in the link above:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.08.20057794v1.full.pdf

For hospital admission, the 2 largest factors are:

Age ≥65

BMI ≥30

 

 

 

[sevenperforce]

26 minutes ago, tater said:

The Los Alamos paper I mentioned up the thread with the crazy high R₀:

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article#tnF1

R₀ 5.7 (range: 3.8 - 8.9)

Herd immunity @ 82% of population.

Only question I really have is that if R₀ is that high, what % must have already had this by now?

I think one of the things that makes this so legitimately terrifying, over and above the raw R₀ numbers, is the astounding range of health outcomes. You can have one person who catches it, is an asymptomatic carrier, and is in fact spreading it to other people while testing negative. Another person right next to them will catch it and be dead within days. Yes, there are broad correlations to pre-existing health conditions, but they aren't exclusive to people with health conditions. The uncertainty is horrifying. It's like if pet cats suddenly began turning feral overnight and started ripping out their owner's throats...it wouldn't be very comforting to hear "Don't worry, this will only affect one in 500 cats and we have a good idea about which ones a lot of those will be but no idea how to predict for sure the rest."

[DDE]

15 hours ago, insert_name said:

sounds like the PRC is censoring research into the coronavirus

https://www.newsweek.com/china-censoring-research-covid-19-origins-deleted-page-wuhan-university-website-suggests-1497467

Of course. It messes with the seemingly unofficial narrative of COVID-19's US origins.

A narrative that is already taking root and leading to... very vigorous social exclusion initiatives at citizen level.

[tater]

6 hours ago, sevenperforce said:

Yes, there are broad correlations to pre-existing health conditions, but they aren't exclusive to people with health conditions. The uncertainty is horrifying.

This is true for everything, though. Maybe it's because I spend so much time with docs, but as my wife says, "Everyone is healthy until they're not." She tells surprisingly young adults (most cancers are people over 50) that they have really awful cancer all the time (she doesn't see kids).

Dose also likely matters, which might explain the oddball case of someone healthy getting really sick (and it is oddball cases). There is also the chance that people don't know they have underlying illness, and this hits them as well. It's not like the docs can do a zerba hunt for your underlying cancer if they're just trying to keep you alive from COVID infection.

If it really is that infectious, I can't see any attempt to keep this under wraps, we just need to get herd immunity already (a vaccine in 18 months is wishful thinking). Heck, in places where there is evidence that the peak soon will not be that bad, we might need t infect more people—the area under the curve is the same, if 82% of people need to get it, that's who needs to get it, as long as the system is not overwhelmed. Heck, keep the old/infirm at home, and send others out, the IFR is only actually really high because of old people. If you locked down people over 60, might work out better. What's the average IFR if all the large numbers are removed from the average?

Edited April 13, 2020 by tater

[tater]

 

[tater]

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm

^^^^ very interesting thay have total death counts, then they have the number of all cause deaths, then the % of expected deaths for this week (all are below 100%, so deaths in general are down). There are actual fewer people dead right now for the period 2/20 through 4/4 than there should be, including the 4k+ COVID deaths. Of course there are more deaths now, but I doubt they even make up the difference.

Very interesting, tracks pneumonia deaths with no COVID or flu, with flu AND covid, and with just flu.

Edited April 13, 2020 by tater

[DDE]

25 minutes ago, tater said:

 

Addicts.

*eye roll*

[tater]

3 minutes ago, DDE said:

Addicts.

*eye roll*

*Drinks third espresso of the morning*

Re: that CDC link. In February and March, the US had fully 63,000 fewer deaths than expected, even with COVID-19. If the IHME prediction is correct, we end up by June with fewer net deaths than we should have.

Open things up, but with stay at home for the elderly suggested, and people wash their %$#@ing hands, and COVID-19 probably ends up saving net lives.

[sevenperforce]

5 minutes ago, tater said:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm

^^^^ very interesting thay have total death counts, then they have the number of all cause deaths, then the % of expected deaths for this week (all are below 100%, so deaths in general are down). There are actual fewer people dead right now for the period 2/20 through 4/4 than there should be, including the 4k+ COVID deaths. Of course there are more deaths now, but I doubt they even make up the difference.

Very interesting, tracks pneumonia deaths with no COVID or flu, with flu AND covid, and with just flu.

I was discussing with my wife the high likelihood that we will see fewer-than-expected total deaths across the board. As you have pointed out (repeatedly, I've noticed), many of those who are susceptible already had a higher-than-average chance of dying in the next six months. Reduced driving and other activities correlates to fewer accidental deaths.

 

[tater]

2 minutes ago, sevenperforce said:

I was discussing with my wife the high likelihood that we will see fewer-than-expected total deaths across the board. As you have pointed out (repeatedly, I've noticed), many of those who are susceptible already had a higher-than-average chance of dying in the next six months. Reduced driving and other activities correlates to fewer accidental deaths.

Driving typically killed 6-700 people per week in the US, so it's a real improvement, but not significant compared to the 50k a week who die each and every week.

I'm becoming more and more convinced we need to tell the at risk to stay home, then just go back to normal (though I think the filthy animals who don't wash their hands after using the bathroom need to wash their hands every time going forward and join civilization).

The risk for people under retirement age is not substantial, and if we can keep the elderly out of the hospital, the system will not be overwhelmed. The rare younger person who gets really sick will have full access to care. If R₀ is really anything like 5.7, everyone who is going to get this is going to get it anyway. Right now the societal solution is that we saw a cockroach in the kitchen, so we decided to burn the house down.

 

 

[sevenperforce]

14 minutes ago, tater said:

I'm becoming more and more convinced we need to tell the at risk to stay home, then just go back to normal (though I think the filthy animals who don't wash their hands after using the bathroom need to wash their hands every time going forward and join civilization).

The risk for people under retirement age is not substantial, and if we can keep the elderly out of the hospital, the system will not be overwhelmed. The rare younger person who gets really sick will have full access to care. If R₀ is really anything like 5.7, everyone who is going to get this is going to get it anyway. Right now the societal solution is that we saw a cockroach in the kitchen, so we decided to burn the house down.

I disagree. I think we saw thousands of cockroaches in the basement, so we fumigated the entire house, and now it's time to open up the upstairs but we should keep the basement locked and fumigate it repeatedly for a few more weeks.

We've blunted the curve (not as effectively as we should have, but that's something to deal with in November). Good. Roll out widespread serological testing and allow everyone who's immune to immediately return to work. If two weeks pass with no surge,  allow low-risk individuals to return to work. Wait for the second surge, then allow the rest of the population to return to work after it crests. Exercise caution until we get a vax.

[DDE]

1 hour ago, tater said:

Open things up, but with stay at home for the elderly suggested, and people wash their %$#@ing hands, and COVID-19 probably ends up saving net lives.

This doesn't square too well with New York's mass graves. Seems the mortality pattern at least shifted geographically.

[tater]

Younger people are not at substantial risk. We haven't fumigated at all. Killing the economy for a few years is not fumigating, it's burning the house down.

A large % of the population already has or had this I bet. The basal level of subclinical infection will remain high, so as soon as anyone goes out, it will spread faster than any contact tracing is possible. A vaccine is not coming for years. This 12-18 months is wishful thinking. We get all vaccinations in our household—but I would wait a while before getting vaccinated for this if it comes out quickly, as there is no possible way to adequately test it in a short time period (I think Paul Offit (Rotovirus vaccine guy) is right).

Also, the people who are not actually at risk—below 60, basically—are at risk of having health issues fester for lack of care at this point. The next most at risk group, the 50YOs (looks in mirror) are at more serious risk for illness that is treatable if detected early than COVID, but they are not going to the doctor right now. In addition, apparently vaccinations in general have stopped as it is "elective" care. This is a recipe for disaster.

The idea that this shutdown BS becomes some "new normal" is appalling, I'd honestly prefer the unmitigated casualties if this would need to continue for years. (that said, people would wash their hands, and old people would be careful, so "unmitigated" is simply not a thing just because people have voluntarily changed behavior, so I'm not worried about unmitigated spread being a thing, regardless).

 

10 minutes ago, DDE said:

This doesn't square too well with New York's mass graves. Seems the mortality pattern at least shifted geographically.

No, it's that a % of the pop that usually dies spread out over some months died at once, and the burial industry can't deal with surges, particularly when the economy is basically shut down.

NY State normally has ~3k deaths a week. The total NYS deaths approaching 10k has happened in just a few weeks, and half in NYCm, so it has stressed the funeral business.

Edited April 13, 2020 by tater

[TheSaint]

1 hour ago, DDE said:

Addicts.

*eye roll*

Since I've been working from home I've taken to drinking a cup of coffee every morning, since my wife is making it and it's there. But, I'm not an addict, I can stop at any time....

[DDE]

1 hour ago, tater said:

but I would wait a while before getting vaccinated for this if it comes out quickly, as there is no possible way to adequately test it in a short time period

Implying that you'd be given a choice. If there ever was a time people'd be able to ram mandatory vaccination or medical passports or any other form of epidemiological discrimination through any and all public objections, it will be now.

Too many people are hung up on the Soviet response to the Moscow smallpox outbreak of 1960 to ignore such an option.

[tater]

This is counterintuitive as %$#@...