To EV or not to EV, that is the question...

[StrandedonEarth]

I want an EV.

Do I need an EV? Do I even need to replace my 09 Yaris, currently pulling 6.xL/100km for my 100km(round trip)/120kph highway commute? It has about ~250Mm on the clock. For a Toyota, that's just about broken in

Nope to both. But I want one anyways. Call it a mid-life crisis want. The old stereotype is buying a Porsche. I want an electric car. So let's have a look...

So first, a little background....

Spoiler

We're currently in the final stages of refinancing our townhouse to pay off LoC, CC, and our truck, as well as free up money for a kitchen reno, because we plan on being here a long time and the kitchen is way too cramped The wife has wants too, right? Happy wife is a happy life and all that, right? But budget creep being what it is and getting less than expected on the refinance due to miscommunications, there won't be nearly enough left to make a significant down payment, let alone buy an EV outright. But another factor with having a reno going on is we'll need an electrician anyways, which would make installing a plug for an EV charger a tiny bit cheaper.

We currently pay almost $700/mo on our RAM, which will be freed up with the re-finance, along with other interest charges. Of course, our mortgage payment will go up, but not nearly that much, so we should have some room in our operating budget again. It'll be nice to get rid of those payments; the last thing we want to do now is add another payment again or rack up other debt again. We should probably be throwing as much into savings as we can while still reasonably enjoying life. But yet, in current conditions, I can't stop thinking that turning around and buying an EV may not be a terrible idea....

So let's look at some numbers: While I haven't been tracking fuel too closely, I'd say the car burns 40-50L/wk with work and other errands. When Covid hit my 2-man carpool broke up, but the price of gas crashed, so that hit wasn't too bad. But now gas is tracking back to historical highs in this region (we consistently get gouged at the pump here. it's often reported that we are paying more than market conditions would indicate, but it continues) While not back to $1.50/l yet, it's been at $1.48/L last week, so it's foreseeable. and it's a nice, round number, so let's go with that. My car seems to be tracking the high 6.xL/100km these days, although I thought it used to be closer to 6. Maybe I'm driving my average highway speed has been faster, or the car is older, dunno. So say my 100km trip to work is likely to cost me >$10/day or $220/mo in fuel. Not including other errands, such as a nightly short jaunt to the school for our mountain labernese to have her  run. The engine is usually cold, so it's burning a disproportionate amount of gas for that short trip.

A gas wrinkle:

Spoiler

What I hear is that when Covid hit and the world stopped and gas demand (and price) crashed, many tanker drivers were laid off and found new jobs. As the world cranks up again, demand for gas is rising again but there aren't enough tanker drivers around, and as one can imagine hauling a tanker full of flammable liquid requires extra certification over a regular Class 1 truck driver. For that matter there's a shortage of drivers in general, and autonomous trucks just aren't going to be quite ready fast enough. But platooning them will help. Anyways, a potential shortage of drivers means a potential shortage of gas, with the result of prices going even higher. Which makes EVs more attractive, but supply is small. So while the inclination is to wait, I fear if I wait the used EV pool will get both more expensive and dry up at the same time. Which makes me not want to wait.

Hydro: I see efficiencies of 25-30kWh/100mi thrown around. Choosing 30 for roundness and worst-case estimating, that's roughly 18kWh/100km. Round up to 20kWh from the meter and a 2nd tier hydro rate of over $0.14/kWh (call it 15. Billing here is two-tier instead of ToD, which I think would be better esp. with an EV) or $3/100km, which compares favorably with $10.50/100km. Not including insurance or maintenance. I still need to get insurance quotes, but maintenance should be big savings. But the energy savings alone should amount to at least  $7/day  or $154/mo savings just on energy for commuting. Hmm, maybe not as big a savings as I hoped. Maybe if I can con my boss  into installing a charger so I can charge for free at work...

Another wrinkle:

Spoiler

My teenage stepson was working at weekends at McD's, so I'd rack up another 20km on days he worked. But now he's finished all his credits for graduation and will be coming to work with me at the tire plant for the rest of the year, then hopefully into trades training in February. So scratch that errand, and he will now be making globs of money to save for school and contribute to the household when he's not in school. While we weren't planning on charging him rent just yet if he saves most of his money first, throwing an EV into the picture changes things, and he's good with that. But we'd have to be prepared to do without his contribution when he goes back to school. Also, he just got his learner's license. It'll be a year before he can get his Newbie  Novice license, so no point in hanging onto a third car for him until then, making the Yaris available for trade-in bait. But we'd be more comfortable with him learning in a much less expensive car, although with modern safety features? Things that make you go Hmmmmm

Although my youngest son is likely to replace him at McD's, so I'll probably still have that errand after all. Bus service to that location is excessively inconvenient.

Now let's see what's available. Of course I want a Tesla, but at first glance that's way out of my price range. From what I've gathered so far, the Chevy Bolt is the next best thing, and I've chosen to ignore the others for now as I was raised on Chevy and they've led the traditional automaker's tortoise race to useable full electrification. And at a cursory glance the Bolt is slightly less expensive than the others. As for pricing (Cdn$):

Well, the smartest (read: less expensive overall) thing to do if I insist on an electric car would be to buy a used Bolt. But If I'm spending this kind of money (that I don't have to) I may as well make it worthwhile, and I would want nothing less than the Premier trim w/ the optional (this safety stuff should NOT be optional IMO, especially at a list price of under $1k for the option) auto-braking, lane-keeping, pedestrian-braking etc. Especially with a new driver in an expensive vehicle. That cuts down on the used Bolts I see in the Fraser Valley region on CarGurus quite a bit, but there are some, depending how far I want to go. I see around (depending on mileage) $27k for a fully loaded 2017 Bolt. But total price isn't everything, right, what about the payments? The "informational purposes only" financing calculators say for a typical used-car financing term of 60months gives a monthly payment of ~$500, or a 72month for $420. Which is about $350/mo (or less) after fuel savings for the 60mo term, not including trade-in (2k if I'm lucky? No idea really).

But wait! With new-car financing terms of 96 months, a brand-new Bolt, going for ~$43k after 8k in govt rebates and some advertised $2k dealer rebates, has a monthly payment  still around $500/mo. I'm just in hock for a 8 years (again) with a new vehicle, instead of 5 years with a used one, or until we refinance the mortgage again.

But wait! If I'm creeping up to $43k, well, that's about where used Model 3s are starting. But that's back to used car financing terms of 60-72 months, with a payment over $700/mo. Nope, too rich for me now. So much for that dream. I'll just dream over to the Tesla site..... Waitaminute.... Again with rebates, an SR+ is in the same price range as a Bolt? $7500 down will get me a new Model 3 SR+ for $548/mo?? Over 8 years, of course, but, now I'm drooling... Not that we expect to have that much of a down payment, but it is do-able.... After fuel and other savings, the net cost should be under $400/mo. Still high but not much more than a Bolt, aside from the down payment. That puts  a Tesla actually in plausible reach... As long as I'm dreaming, let's see, a Model 3 AWD w/FSD works out to a payment of over $800 *sigh* yup, firmly in dreamland now....

So here I am, conflicted. I shouldn't even consider buying another vehicle, let alone financing one. But deep down, I badly want an electric car, ideally a Tesla, but I certainly don't need one. At least writing this post forced me to do a little more research, such as electricity cost. So my off-the-top-of-my-head estimated fuel savings of $250/mo becomes a (lowballed; I may save more) net energy cost savings closer to $150, depending on fuel prices. If fuel prices skyrocket, I'll look like a genius. Regardless, ICE vehicles will be mostly obsolete (there will always be a valid, if rare, use case for ICE, IMO) sooner or later, probably sooner.

So, what are people's thoughts on my conundrum? Opinions on various EVs? I gotta go for now, but I'll put up a poll soon.

Edited May 2, 2021 by StrandedonEarth

[StrandedonEarth]

Of course, part of making that post was convincing myself that I shouldn't do it, at least not yet. And the two votes so far to stand pat back that up. So I really need to follow the advice I gave my newly-out-on-her-own stepdaughter when she was pondering financing a new car: throw the money I would be spending on payments into a savings account, to see if we can hack it. Then if I do decide to pull the trigger, we'll have saved that much already. Which my wife will then decide to spend on a trip to Florida. She wants DisneyWorld and I want Kennedy, of course.

If I wait, and gas prices spike, while used EV availability may plummet, new vehicles should still be available, although the wait list may grow. Right now, ordering a new M3 has a wait time of 6-9 weeks, according to the website.

*sigh*  I need to postpone this particular dream...

[YNM]

13 hours ago, StrandedonEarth said:

Do I even need to replace my 09 Yaris, currently pulling 6.xL/100km

That's surprisingly more efficient than the one we have at home (2011 Yaris, usually do like 13-15 km per liter, but it is exclusively used in the city with a lot of congestion).

Since both of your choice is full EV then there're a few simple dealbreakers to think of :

1. Is there enough range to cover your occasional long-distance trip ?

2. Are there charging stations within the maximum range for that long-distance trip, if the range doesn't fully cover it ?

3. If you're buying a used car, are the primary batteries still going to be covered by warranty ? (personally think this one is also important as it changes the long-term financial position)

One thing to consider IMO are hybrids. There are hybrids out there that works as full EV for the short distance commute, but will only start use ICE when the range has been depleted. Here we don't have a lot of the necessary infra for long-distance EV driving, and there're many cases of flooding (which poses risk for batteries) so hybrid vehicles are gaining traction more than full EV.

 

That being said, saving up first is definitely a better option than doing something on an impulse. In the future hopefully there'll be cheaper EV cars with better stuff.

Edited May 3, 2021 by YNM

[Elthy]

I would suggest waiting. The EV market is just starting, i would compare it to the early smartphone market of about 2010. Every year you wait will yield you better vehicles for cheaper prices, propably improving in a faster rate than what you would be saving on fuel.

[pandaman]

Why not get the electrics for the EV charging point fitted anyway while you are having stuff done?  It will be less outlay and hassle when/if you do get one, and maybe add a little property value too.

[TheSaint]

Apparently, from what I've been reading, the vehicle market is stupid right now anyway. COVID put the smackdown on new vehicle production, so the new vehicle market is tight. With all of the stimulus money flowing around, everyone is buying cars, so the used vehicle market is tight too. Prices are high all around. We bought a new-to-us car back in January, and the inventory and prices are crap now compared to just four months ago. Shoot, if I had held onto our old Pilot for four months I could have gotten half-again what I got for it on Craigslist. It's a good time to sell if you have an extra vehicle lying around, or if you can bike to work. Otherwise, it's a good time to sit on what you've got.

[Ben J. Kerman]

I think that electric vehicles are an okay idea, but they are too expensive and not efficient enough yet to be practical. I don't really know much about them though, so maybe I am wrong.

Spoiler

But... If you do want to get an EV, I suggest the Liebherr LR 1200.1 Unplugged or the LR 1250.1 Unplugged, the world's first battery powered crawler cranes.

 

[StrandedonEarth]

5 hours ago, pandaman said:

Why not get the electrics for the EV charging point fitted anyway while you are having stuff done?  It will be less outlay and hassle when/if you do get one, and maybe add a little property value too.

Yeah, I was thinking that, as long as an electrician  is coming in, may as well....

1 hour ago, Ben J. Kerman said:

I think that electric vehicles are an okay idea, but they are too expensive and not efficient enough yet to be practical. I don't really know much about them though, so maybe I am wrong.

  Hide contents

But... If you do want to get an EV, I suggest the Liebherr LR 1200.1 Unplugged or the LR 1250.1 Unplugged, the world's first battery powered crawler cranes.

 

Those may be a little slow for my commute, but at least I could move the traffic jams out of the way... 

[Ben J. Kerman]

On 5/2/2021 at 3:16 PM, StrandedonEarth said:

Call it a mid-life crisis want.

Although I am not even anywhere close to the mid point of my life, mine is wanting a Liebherr LTM 1060-3.1 (Even an LTM 1030-2.1 would be fine!) Unfortunately, I don't have about half a million dollars jut lyin' around. Even little tiny skid steers (Often called a Bobcat. It's a brand name thing, like Kleenex, Coke, Xerox, etc.) cost about as much or even more than a new car

.

 

58 minutes ago, StrandedonEarth said:

Those may be a little slow for my commute, but at least I could move the traffic jams out of the way...

Yes, on the Liebherr website it says that the LR 1250.1 Unplugged's max speed is 1.60 km/h (1 mph) You would probably be late to work at that speed! Also, the metal tracks mess would up the road anyway. That is why you often see wheeled excavators used for roadwork rather than crawler excavators. But, with a maximum capacity of 250 tonnes, you could easily move cars on the road front of you, if the driver would let you put straps around their car so you have something to hook on to. 

[kerbiloid]

On 5/2/2021 at 10:16 PM, StrandedonEarth said:

The old stereotype is buying a Porsche. I want an electric car. So let's have a look...

https://www.porsche.com/international/aboutporsche/e-performance/#:~:text=The Porsche Taycan models are the currently available all-electric models.&text=They have an all-electric,Porsche plug-in hybrid models.

Electroporsche.

[YNM]

On 5/4/2021 at 10:44 PM, TheSaint said:

Apparently, from what I've been reading, the vehicle market is stupid right now anyway.

Have the opposite here. They've been putting discounts on new vehicles, and the gov't has actually lowered the new vehicle tax.

On 5/4/2021 at 11:13 PM, Ben J. Kerman said:

battery powered crawler cranes.

Honestly I want to have a truck (HGV/Class 8) driving license... Would at least help me know what it's like to drive on the roads in very large vehicles, if I ever end up designing roads at work.

Or trains. Those are often electric.

On 5/5/2021 at 1:11 AM, StrandedonEarth said:

Those may be a little slow for my commute, but at least I could move the traffic jams out of the way...

Better yet if it's actually your work in the crane... Trucks have had bunk beds in them, why not heavy equipment and machinery ?