Spaceception

Can't launch the SHLV they want, so they're launching the SHLV they have. It's been a pretty big year for SpaceX all things considered, 3 launches of FH with 1 more on the way, maybe 2 this year, outstripping their annual launch record with almost half a year to go, completing their crew contract, and making the first test flight of their next generation vehicle. And like they posted recently, its only been 15 years since their 1st rocket succeeded in flight.

So back in May, Helion signed a deal with Microsoft to provide a 50 MW reactor by 2028. https://www.helionenergy.com/articles/helion-announces-worlds-first-fusion-ppa-with-microsoft/ And today, Helion announced another deal with Nucor (a steel manufacturing plant) to build a 500 MW reactor. No date has been given. https://www.helionenergy.com/articles/helion-nucor-collaboration-to-deploy-500-mw-fusion-power-plant/ Personally, between these two announcements, I'm tentatively optimistic that Helion is the real deal. But really, the company can only go one of 2 ways. Either Helion is the next Theranos, or they are legitimately in a position to crack fusion first.

As many as they can get away with, which likely depends on how well IFT-2 goes, and if the new pad holds up. If it does, we can expect them to push for IFT-3 immediately after, if not by the end of the year, then early 2024, with subsequent flights every couple months or so, give or take. So I vote 4-5 next year, with the possibility of at least one successful landing attempt by the booster and/or ship before 2025. And this can either be on land, or a soft water splashdown. 2025 will be the year the Starship program really gets rolling, as they'll transition from testing to operations, and begin achieving critical milestones for both their internal and HLS goals, like reuse and refueling.

Its been a long time coming, but I'm really looking forward to seeing a fully stacked New Glenn on the pad. I hope it's not much longer, relatively speaking.

Something that crosses my mind when I see stuff like this, even though it's probably already evident, is that it's interesting that they took a lot of inspiration for Falcon 9's development in Starship's test program. Where they started out with basically a minimum viable rocket, and gradually upgraded everything over time to block 5, Starship is going down a similar path while still in development before they declare it operational. Raptor 1-3 (and possibly 4+ in the next several years), stretching Starship's tanks, adding hot staging, not to mention the more fundamental changes like carbon fiber to steel, and 12 to 9m. If they had decided to freeze the design earlier and focus on orbit, could they be flying right now? Maybe, maybe not, steel was still a relatively recent change for that, but they also likely want to avoid getting themselves stuck in a potentially limiting design like Falcon 9, and not having more room to work on reusability and turnaround, at least not without more of a cost. So they're working on a design they like while everything is still in flux.

As of late last year, 1.65 tonnes, fully reused. Not bad https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/10/stoke-space-aims-to-build-rapidly-reusable-rocket-with-a-completely-novel-design/ Which is pretty high for most small lift vehicles. Falcon 1 was about 670 kg max, Electron does 300 kg, Firefly Alpha can do just over a ton, 1,030 kg, and Terran 1 can do just short of 1.5 tonnes, 1,470 kg.

They managed their first landing within a month of SpaceX's. So it was impressive that they beat them there, but it wasn't by much. I really look forward to seeing Stoke's first full launch. There's a lot of players working on small lift vehicles before making their way to medium lift. SpaceX was (one of) the first, but there's also Rocket Lab, Relativity, Firefly, and (not really) Blue Origin who are doing the same. So I hope Stoke has similar plans, though I'll admit I haven't seen the EDA video about it, so they could've mentioned something.

This has to be teaching SpaceX a lot about spacesuit development, I wouldn't be surprised if they're getting started on more advanced EVA suits for planetary environments (or already have a while ago), given how the development of this, comparatively, simpler suit is going.

Webb discovers Methane, Carbon Dioxide, in atmosphere of K2-18 b. https://www.nasa.gov/goddard/2023/webb-discovers-methane-carbon-dioxide-in-atmosphere-of-k2-18 This looks incredibly interesting. "A new investigation with NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope into K2-18 b, an exoplanet 8.6 times as massive as Earth, has revealed the presence of carbon-bearing molecules including methane and carbon dioxide. Webb’s discovery adds to recent studies suggesting that K2-18 b could be a Hycean exoplanet, one which has the potential to possess a hydrogen-rich atmosphere and a water ocean-covered surface." "The abundance of methane and carbon dioxide, and shortage of ammonia, support the hypothesis that there may be a water ocean underneath a hydrogen-rich atmosphere in K2-18 b. These initial Webb observations also provided a possible detection of a molecule called dimethyl sulfide (DMS). On Earth, this is only produced by life. The bulk of the DMS in Earth’s atmosphere is emitted from phytoplankton in marine environments. The inference of DMS is less robust and requires further validation. “Upcoming Webb observations should be able to confirm if DMS is indeed present in the atmosphere of K2-18 b at significant levels,” explained Madhusudhan."

Wen launch? This sounds pretty promising for a license in the near future though, with a launch attempt within a week or so if IFT-2 has a similar timeline as IFT-1. The license then was given 3 days before the first attempt.

I don't believe so, which could mean that they concluded it was minor enough to go forward with flight. Do we know what they consider minor though? Superheavy can get by with 3 engines out, and they likely accept higher odds of something like that happening in early test flights, considering IFT-1.

Yeah, but I want to temper my expectations, so I'm sandbagging a bit. And while GSE/sensor issues could be the root cause behind the premature engine outs in B9's static fire, we still don't have all the details, so if it was something that may need more of a fix, and other engines face those same issues, then there's no guarantee that IFT-2 will go all the way.

Predictions for this one? I think it'll make it to stage separation and ignition of Starship. Bit more iffy whether it'll burn the full duration to its semi-orbit, and definitely uncertain if it'll survive reentry. The booster should make boostback, and possibly a soft ocean landing after. And the pad will survive. Overall, it'll be a much smoother test than IFT-1, even if I still don't think it'll meet its objectives.

Full duration fire, it looked better than last time.

From what I've gathered (just by reading threads of people talking about it), the process that was laid out how to create it seems to be incomplete, so researchers need to experiment a bit to find the right mix. Once people have a consistent idea of how to get the results SK and other labs are getting that shows promise of superconductivity, we'll see if it's legitimate or a false alarm.

Possible room(ish) temperature ambient pressure super conductor discovered. It hasn't been peer reviewed yet, but it can function at >400K (127C), so not quite room temperature. https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/2307/2307.12008.pdf I'll be honest, skimming through the paper, I can't find what the actual pressures were.

New Glenn reusable upper stage, similar concept as Stoke with an aerospike and actively cooled heatshield.

Yeah, I goofed there. But is this sooner than most of us were expecting?

Are they planning a test of the whole system once everything is installed? That would be cool to see ahead of the next booster static fire. I saw a graphic earlier today that showed most of it was installed already.

I don't know if this deserves its own topic now (or an old thread revival), or soon given that there's a lot of interest on TRAPPIST-1 from Webb and elsewhere, but in case it simply belongs here, I'm just going to reply to this topic for the time being. TRAPPIST-1c was not found to possess a thick atmosphere like Venus, with a dayside temperature of ~107 Celsius, just above the boiling point (anyone able to determine what the Terminator temperature should be?). If it has an atmosphere, it's more likely to be akin to Mars than Earth. https://webbtelescope.org/contents/news-releases/2023/news-2023-125 This is in spite of the planet being roughly the same size as Venus, with a similar insolation as Venus as well. Researchers believe this indicates the system has little water, or at least the planet itself. That's 2/7 planets down, but researchers want to observe them again this year to see how the temperature changes from the day to night side, and constrain the possibility of an atmosphere further. https://www.stsci.edu/jwst/phase2-public/3077.pdf

No idea how solid the science part will be, but I'm interested in seeing this. It looks like an original movie, and was written by the director and screenwriter of Rogue One, Gareth Edwards and Chris Weitz respectively. Edwards is directing as well. Poster: And if anything else

SN25/B9 are next for flight testing.

So... Boeing and Lockheed are both part of the National Team with Blue Origin https://www.blueorigin.com/news/nasa-selects-blue-origin-for-mission-to-moon/ Link in case anyone needs it. In light of that, what do you think the odds are ACES will be revived? Lockheed will be working on the Cislunar transporter, which will specifically be refueling the lander. Could ULA get the green light again to develop Centuar V into an ACES type stage?

I actually really like the look of the new lander. And they're adding some interesting elements to it. Also still working on hydrolox, and a way to get long term propellent storage to work? Wonder if there will be any work with ULA on that considering the parent companies are a part of the team, we could see an ACES revival. Or New Glenn's own second stage/JARVIS could employ it as well for LEO to Lunar payloads. It seems losing the last bid really led them to improving on the original design. And it has a respectable payload mass to the surface. I don't think anything's going to really touch Starship for a while, so just seeing it well in the double digits is cool to see. What was it last time? About the same? Iirc Blue Moon is like 5-ish tonnes or so.