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SpaceX Mars colony predictions

Spaceception

By Spaceception
in Science & Spaceflight

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When will SpaceX put a colony on Mars?  

146 members have voted

  1. 1. When will SpaceX begin putting a colony on Mars?

    • 2026
      12
    • 2028
      9
    • 2030
      21
    • 2032
      10
    • 2034
      6
    • 2036
      12
    • Beyond- i.e. 2038-50
      41
    • It won't happen, and Elon will be really sad
      35

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PB666

PB666

Posted
Posted
46 minutes ago, Spaceception said:

I guess we'll just have to wait until September for the fine details, Elon isn't budging :P

Until then, lets just dive into what we know now :)

If he isn't budging it probably means his futurama team is still working on some aspects of the plan. 

2 hours ago, Spaceception said:

Mars by 2024, so immediately 2 years after the first Red Dragon, I guess they're gonna just send a few dozen at once? Damn.

The video where he talks is here, don't mind the thumbnail, this was a unoffical reupload. But I don't know where he said it so here! Article! http://www.cnbc.com/2016/06/02/musk-we-intend-to-launch-people-to-mars-in-2024.html

 

You do know that sometimes the earth and mars are on in solar opposition. Its not like you can get on a Harley and take a joy ride to Mars. If it were the case theses missions would need far less planning. If wishes were horses beggars would ride. 

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Rakaydos

Rakaydos

Posted
Posted

"People to mars in 2024"

"Life support"

So lets say the rumors for the MCT BFS are true, that is designed to carry 100 people to mars.

Lets furthur say that for this first mission, he only sens say, 5. That's a lot of life support mass (and payload mass) they can repurpose for canned air and CO2 scrubbers.
 

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PB666

PB666

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Rakaydos said:

"People to mars in 2024"

"Life support"

So lets say the rumors for the MCT BFS are true, that is designed to carry 100 people to mars.

Lets furthur say that for this first mission, he only sens say, 5. That's a lot of life support mass (and payload mass) they can repurpose for canned air and CO2 scrubbers.
 

It can be done, getting them to Mars, getting the down or back tobEarth is a problem. Ut can be done, dont see the monetary support or the infrastructure for the number of launches required, but that's just me. 

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juanml82

juanml82

Posted
Posted

None has ever put a centrifugal habitat in orbit rotating at enough speed to simulate Martian gravity and made mouses pregnant there.

I find it particularly hard to believe that human fetuses would develop without any sort of complication (if they develop at all) in less than 40% of Earth's gravity. And if pregnancies in Mars aren't viable, then any idea of colonizing Mars (and by extension, any other body in the solar system except poisonous, acid Venus) hits a brick wall and could very well be stored alongside "manned interstellar exploration".

Space exploration attracts due the different worlds, the hardware, the sci-fi, maybe even orbital mechanics. But, at the end of the day, to get a viable colonization of space, we need women sweating and hurting to push little, healthy, humans out of their bodies.

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wumpus

wumpus

Posted
Posted

Colonize?  Have you *seen* the size [and mass] of biosphere2?  And that it isn't good enough to support 6-8 (or however many, it wasn't much more) people?  We won't *colonize* anywhere off Earth anywhere this century.  Not to say we can't have a permanently manned base (something like the South pole), but I wouldn't claim a real colony unless it has a real chance to survive on its own.

I'm pretty sure PB666 has a thread with a link to data on biosphere2.  Note that I suspect it was designed to copy the Earth's biosphere and not specifically act as human life support, but I expect that any functional life support system will require more mass than we could conceivably bring to Mars with barely-post-20th century gear.

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PB666

PB666

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Posted
1 hour ago, wumpus said:

Colonize?  Have you *seen* the size [and mass] of biosphere2?  And that it isn't good enough to support 6-8 (or however many, it wasn't much more) people?  We won't *colonize* anywhere off Earth anywhere this century.  Not to say we can't have a permanently manned base (something like the South pole), but I wouldn't claim a real colony unless it has a real chance to survive on its own.

I'm pretty sure PB666 has a thread with a link to data on biosphere2.  Note that I suspect it was designed to copy the Earth's biosphere and not specifically act as human life support, but I expect that any functional life support system will require more mass than we could conceivably bring to Mars with barely-post-20th century gear.

Presumbably the problem of O2 and CO2 could be corrected with gas flux. The food problem couldn't. With out a good source of fat and protein people tend to become carb o philes, so they eat more grains. Thats a problem on Mars because the lower amount of sunlight.. Bioshere 2 would be horrifically expensive on mars. I would have a fusion reactor and built the horticulture facility underground using LEDs. Deep underground it would be easier to keep temperture and pressure elevated. You could roate crews between the surface and the facilities. Meat is a luxury on mars that could be imported at a very high price. 

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RedKraken

RedKraken

Posted
Posted

A lot of things have to go right for MCT to meet that 2024 date. I think it will slip. Too many unknowns.

But the Dragon2 landings will happen and will provide an opportunity to pre-position supplies for a later mission.

If you could group three successful landings in 2018,2020 and 2022 ( a big if... mars eats spacecraft for breakfast ).... you might be tempted to send... 

A 2024 Dragon2 with two adventurous souls aiming to land near 6 years of food, water, power, and shelter. Pickup by MCT later in the decade (2030?). Or maybe never. Just keep sending them supplies.

It will be stinky, uncomfortable and dangerous as hell. But so were all the space race missions.

I suspect there would be many capable, experienced people (crew from ISS, shuttle, or Tiangong) who would volunteer to go in an instant. And with no exact prospects of returning to earth.

Interesting times.

 

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Nibb31

Nibb31

Posted
Posted (edited)

 

The whole BFS thing is as big as an Apollo program, but on limited private funds. No way is it going to be flying in less than 8 years. They still have land to purchase, the biggest factories and launch pads in the world to build, and the biggest rocket and manned spacecraft ever imagined to build and test, as well as plenty of other work just to earn the money to build those things.

 

 

Edited by Nibb31
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tater

tater

Posted
Posted (edited)
12 hours ago, wumpus said:

Colonize?  Have you *seen* the size [and mass] of biosphere2?  And that it isn't good enough to support 6-8 (or however many, it wasn't much more) people?  We won't *colonize* anywhere off Earth anywhere this century.  Not to say we can't have a permanently manned base (something like the South pole), but I wouldn't claim a real colony unless it has a real chance to survive on its own.

I'm pretty sure PB666 has a thread with a link to data on biosphere2.  Note that I suspect it was designed to copy the Earth's biosphere and not specifically act as human life support, but I expect that any functional life support system will require more mass than we could conceivably bring to Mars with barely-post-20th century gear.

I agree (assuming this was at all directed to me). The only destination for people off the earth needs to be entirely constructed. If humans ever live permanently in space, I suspect it will be in space, and spun for pseudo gravity. Still, we get people like Musk pushing to colonize, when as @juanml82 so aptly says, we have zero data on martian gravity and humans. If a spun hab somewhere closer shows martian gravity to be insufficient, all the Mars colonial dreams are just nonsense. Seems to me the very first step is not to build MCT, but to find out if the one part of Mars that nobody can change or engineer around is a total roadblock.

If martian gravity is insufficient for health, then the rest doesn't matter, and the rest is still incredibly difficult.

Edited by tater
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Rakaydos

Rakaydos

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Nibb31 said:

 

The whole BFS thing is as big as an Apollo program, but on limited private funds. No way is it going to be flying in less than 8 years. They still have land to purchase, the biggest factories and launch pads in the world to build, and the biggest rocket and manned spacecraft ever imagined to build and test, as well as plenty of other work just to earn the money to build those things.

 

 

They've already started on most of that, and only the actual construction and testing is dependant on the competion of the other events.

The Raptor has been designed and tested in isolation, the bo chika pad is under construction, and Elon has stated he's going to reveal the MCT program this year, which impies at least completed paper studies for the BFR and BFS.

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  • 3 months later...
Mitchz95

Mitchz95

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Spaceception said:

With recent events in BO and SpaceX, do you think it's more like 1 to 2 years? or are you sticking with 5?

Yeah, 1 or two seems a little more realistic now that they've starting hitting milestones.

Still projecting 2030s+ for the actual colonization, though.

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_Augustus_

_Augustus_

Posted
Posted
21 hours ago, Spaceception said:

With recent events in BO and SpaceX, do you think it's more like 1 to 2 years? or are you sticking with 5?

Well, the next flight after the Falcon 9 return-to-flight will be a re-used rocket..... So you could say it's already here.

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tater

tater

Posted
Posted

The economics of reuse are entirely unknown until there are a decent number of such launches so that the actual costs can be determined. Every shutdown due to an accident ups the cost of the program, and the total cost per launch should really be treated as a little higher as a result (depending on how they amortize such stuff).

I still maintain a Mars colony is somewhat absurd (sadly).

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Ultimate Steve

Ultimate Steve

Posted
Posted

Predictions:

  • Another Falcon 9 will explode (excluding landing failures) before Red Dragon is launched.
  • SpaceX will do its best to launch Red Dragon in 2018. I think there is a 70% chance of launch by this date.
  • SpaceX will carry crew to space in 2017. If not, the first quarter of 2018.
  • The MCT/ITS will definitely be delayed beyond 2026. I appreciate Elon's goals, but I think that the MCT/ITS will definitely slip. Potentially to the 2030's.
  • SpaceX will launch an MCT/ITS.
  • SpaceX will land the first man on Mars, provided they don't go bankrupt.
  • SpaceX has a low chance of going bankrupt - reasons.

That being said, I am a major SpaceX fanboy and optimist.

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