Where will we be in terms of Space exploration in 10 years? (Very Optimistically)

[Spaceception]

The title says it all, here's my thoughts (By the way, you don't have to make it extremely detailed, and you can make your own ideas and divert from current plans, as long as they make at least some sense):

2016: SpaceX launches 18 times, with mostly reused first stages, they also successfully launch the Falcon heavy, Osiris rex launches, and Juno arrives at Jupiter

2017: TESS launches and begins looking for Exoplanets like Earth, the VAIMR thruster is placed on the ISS, Falcon 9 does 30 launches, mostly re-launches from reused first stages and Cygnus, Dream chaser, and Dragon V-2 begin their ISS flights

2018: JWST launches and begins taking over for some of Hubble's duties, and the SLS/Orion launches with a successful mission, and the Angara rocket receives full funding and support

2019: ESA begins testing the SABRE engine, the Vulcan rocket has a successful first flight, and New horizons flies past 2014 MU69

2020: SpaceX test launches their MCT, and NASA launches the Mars 2020 rover, Ariane 6 has a successful first flight and NASA diverts its Mars plans to the Moon and Venus as SpaceX/Bigelow is taking huge strides to establishing a colony, and NASA isn't needed for that, however, NASA is still supporting/giving research to Spacex/Bigelow

2021: India successfully launches their first manned space mission, Skylon is successfully flown, and Vulcan begins reusing its engine block

2022: NASA launches Astronauts to lunar orbit to get ready for the 2023 mission and the Europa clipper launches And the Angara rocket has its first test flight

2023: NASA launches Astronauts to lunar orbit to study the boulder Osiris rex  brings back

2024: NASA lands people back on the Moon with co-op from Europe, China, and Russia, the ISS gets decommissioned, and JWST gets strong evidence for Alien life on an Exoplanet less than 20 ly away

2025 SpaceX launches the Falcon 9/Heavy 80 times and planetary resources begins Asteroid mining

2026: SpaceX launches 100 people to Mars, the colonization of Mars has begun and NASA/ESA/CSA/RSC establish a small lunar mining outpost

I don't know of any more big missions, or potential big missions beyond 2020, so that's why it seems like only one or two things are happening.

Also, yeah, a few things seem really out there, but keep in mind, this is my optimism for where we'll be in space in the next decade. And yes, I know there's a lot more planned, but I'm focusing on really big things.

Edited February 3, 2016 by Spaceception

[Gaarst]

33 minutes ago, Spaceception said:

The title says it all, here's my thoughts (By the way, you don't have to make it extremely detailed, and you can make your own ideas and divert from current plans, as long as they make at least some sense):

2016: SpaceX launches 30 times, with mostly reused first stages, they also successfully launch the Falcon heavy, Osiris rex launches, and Juno arrives at Jupiter

2017: TESS launches and begins looking for Exoplanets like Earth, and Falcon 9 does 40 launches, mostly re-launches from reused first stages

I don't think SpaceX plans on doing 30 launches this year, and I also don't think that they are going to reuse recovered stages that soon. They can't even recover them successfully yet.

33 minutes ago, Spaceception said:

2018: JWST launches and begins taking over for Hubble, and the SLS/Orion launches with a successful mission, and the Falcon 9s 2nd stage successfully returns for a soft landing

Recovering a 2nd stage at 7 km/s is a lot harder than a 1st stage at 2 km/s. You'd need heavy shielding and this will greatly reduce the launcher's efficiency. Then again, I don't see this happening this soon.

33 minutes ago, Spaceception said:

2019: ESA begins testing the SABRE engine, and New horizons flies past 2014 MU69

The SABRE engine has been in development for over 20 years, without much success. While a success in a few years is very possible, it is not guaranteed.

33 minutes ago, Spaceception said:

2020: SpaceX test launches their MCT, and NASA launches the Mars 2020 rover and NASA diverts its Mars plans to the Moon as SpaceX is taking huge strides to establishing a colony, and NASA isn't needed for that

Establishing a colony on Mars ? When we haven't been to the Moon for 50 years, and when the only launcher that is capable of setting up a Mars mission would have flown only once ? Also, the MCT is supposed to be the big rocket that sends 100 people to Mars ? I don't think it is going to take off in 4 years, but why not, after all ?

33 minutes ago, Spaceception said:

2021: India successfully launches their first manned space mission

Nothing to say about that, other than good luck to them !

33 minutes ago, Spaceception said:

2022: NASA launches Astronauts to lunar orbit to get ready for the 2023 mission and the Europa clipper launches

2023: NASA launches Astronauts to lunar orbit to study the boulder Osiris rex brings back

According to the current schedule, SLS's second flight is planned in these years, and it is supposed to put people in Moon orbit. The thing is, only one manned mission is planned for now, not two in a row. They will have to choose between sending more people there, or sending the Europa Clipper.

33 minutes ago, Spaceception said:

2024: NASA lands people back on the Moon with co-op from Europe, China, and Russia and JWST gets strong evidence for Alien life on an Exoplanet less than 20 ly away

And we are going to find Prothean artifacts on Mars ?

While it would be the best thing that could happen to the space industry, such a cooperation is not very likely, and it sending people on the Moon that soon is even less likely.

33 minutes ago, Spaceception said:

2025 SpaceX gets ready for a manned Mars mission and they launch the Falcon 9/Heavy 80 times

2026: SpaceX launches 100 people to Mars, the colonization of Mars has begun and NASA/ESA/CSA/RSC establish a small lunar mining outpost

Elon Musk's optimism... 

Even though this would be great, I seriously doubt it's going to happen.

And SpaceX are not magicians, if a cooperation of the most powerful countries' space agencies esablish a small lunar base, then I don't think a private company will land 100 people on Mars in the meantime. A mission this size is longer to plan, and SpaceX are not going to launch 100 people to Mars on their first mission there.

 

Overall, this, while possible, is extremely optimistic. Even if I am a bit pessimistic, there are just so much parameters that could screw up SpaceX's miraculous Mars colonisation plans. Amongst which: money, time (building space stuff takes time; the bigger, the more time it takes) and possible failures and other unplanned events.

 

For my optimistic thoughts, take basically what you said, add a few years between each major mission, and replace SpaceX by a cooperation of space agencies and companies, that is still to be created (and AFAIK such cooperations are not even planned).

[tater]

How could SpaceX possibly launch 30 times this year? The title should not read "Optimistically," but "Fantasy." They are scheduled for 14 right now: http://spaceflightnow.com/launch-schedule/

The list gets farther from reality as it goes on.

Edited February 3, 2016 by tater

[kunok]

Sometimes i think this section should be called

Science & Spaceflight & Space X hype

I was expecting something realistic somewhat debatable but that's pure fantasy I'm tired off all that hype from space X

 

 

Edited February 3, 2016 by kunok

[DerekL1963]

3 hours ago, Spaceception said:

2016: SpaceX launches 30 times, with mostly reused first stages, they also successfully launch the Falcon heavy

Given SpaceX's rather spotty record of launching on time, and equally spotty record of putting new developments on the pad in time, I wouldn't bet the rent money.  Plus Elon announced a delay in the Falcoln upgrades just yesterday.

 

12 minutes ago, kunok said:

Sometimes i think this section should be called

Science & Spaceflight & Space X hype

I was expecting something realistic somewhat debatable but that's pure fantasy I'm tired off all that hype from space X

Seriously, kunok's right here - folks need to get a grip.

[Bill Phil]

2018: SLS cancelled

2021: Dark age of spaceflight begins. Lasts until 2050. Perhaps much later. 

Oh, you wanted optimism? Well, what I said us still optimistic. Relative to my usual super pessimism regarding spaceflight.

[Motokid600]

Ten years?

That's where we'll be.

[tater]

A dark age of spaceflight would be LESS likely if SLS was cancelled.

[Gaarst]

5 minutes ago, tater said:

A dark age of spaceflight would be LESS likely if SLS was cancelled.

I wouldn't be so sure, the SLS is an actual rocket, unlike some stupid concept I'm not going to name here that drained NASA's billions for 40 years and did bring somewhat of a dark age of spaceflight. Even if the SLS doesn't fulfill its planned goals, it will still be useful for putting things in orbit for a reasonable (depending on how spaceflight market evolves) cost.

Anyway, seeing the struggle NASA had to get its heavy launcher, it's going to be the same for any ambitious project of the same kind. No more going to the Moon in 10 years...

[Sanic]

NASA: Boldly going where they've gone before, many times over

[HebaruSan]

1 hour ago, Bill Phil said:

2018: SLS cancelled

2021: Dark age of spaceflight begins. Lasts until 2050. Perhaps much later. 

Oh, you wanted optimism? Well, what I said us still optimistic. Relative to my usual super pessimism regarding spaceflight.

Optimistically:

• 2026: Alien warships show up in LEO and demand tribute, and the lucky ones of us get to travel the galaxy as slaves

[Bill Phil]

32 minutes ago, tater said:

A dark age of spaceflight would be LESS likely if SLS was cancelled.

Here's the thing: if spending billions for many years can still result in a cancellation, then who would want to invest?

[cubinator]

Ideal: <everyone in power> "Why the heck are we still sitting on this tiny spot of dust when we could be in spaaace? Let's put lots of money into it and land on everything! We can even make space tourism so we can make more money to invest in more space exploration!" 

Optimistic: SLS gets those asteroid samples and the Mars 2020 rover lands, we get some satellites around the Moon, people land on the Moon again.

Probable: We won't have people on the moon until the '30s.

 

[tater]

1 hour ago, Gaarst said:

I wouldn't be so sure, the SLS is an actual rocket, unlike some stupid concept I'm not going to name here that drained NASA's billions for 40 years and did bring somewhat of a dark age of spaceflight. Even if the SLS doesn't fulfill its planned goals, it will still be useful for putting things in orbit for a reasonable (depending on how spaceflight market evolves) cost.

Anyway, seeing the struggle NASA had to get its heavy launcher, it's going to be the same for any ambitious project of the same kind. No more going to the Moon in 10 years...

A reasonable cost? They have to beat the bushes and make up payloads for it since it's a rocket without payloads. 1 launch per year is the dead minimum just to not have NASA fold under the strain of keeping SLS active. It would not be reasonable without more launches than that. Also, to be reasonable, they have to have already needed the launcher. NASA doesn't want it, the congresscritters in the districts that make it want it.

There would be less of a dark age is NASA got the same budget, but was allowed to buy what they want with that money.

Edited February 3, 2016 by tater

[Matuchkin]

6 hours ago, Spaceception said:

The title says it all, here's my thoughts (By the way, you don't have to make it extremely detailed, and you can make your own ideas and divert from current plans, as long as they make at least some sense):

2016: SpaceX launches 30 times, with mostly reused first stages, they also successfully launch the Falcon heavy, Osiris rex launches, and Juno arrives at Jupiter

2017: TESS launches and begins looking for Exoplanets like Earth, and Falcon 9 does 40 launches, mostly re-launches from reused first stages

2018: JWST launches and begins taking over for Hubble, and the SLS/Orion launches with a successful mission, and the Falcon 9s 2nd stage successfully returns for a soft landing

2019: ESA begins testing the SABRE engine, and New horizons flies past 2014 MU69

2020: SpaceX test launches their MCT, and NASA launches the Mars 2020 rover and NASA diverts its Mars plans to the Moon as SpaceX is taking huge strides to establishing a colony, and NASA isn't needed for that

2021: India successfully launches their first manned space mission

2022: NASA launches Astronauts to lunar orbit to get ready for the 2023 mission and the Europa clipper launches

2023: NASA launches Astronauts to lunar orbit to study the boulder Osiris rex brings back

2024: NASA lands people back on the Moon with co-op from Europe, China, and Russia and JWST gets strong evidence for Alien life on an Exoplanet less than 20 ly away

2025 SpaceX gets ready for a manned Mars mission and they launch the Falcon 9/Heavy 80 times

2026: SpaceX launches 100 people to Mars, the colonization of Mars has begun and NASA/ESA/CSA/RSC establish a small lunar mining outpost

I don't know of any more big missions, or potential big missions beyond 2020, so that's why it seems like only one or two things are happening.

Also, yeah, a few things seem really out there, but keep in mind, this is my optimism for where we'll be in space in the next decade. And yes, I know there's a lot more planned, but I'm focusing on really big things.

But of course another president is going to come, and all of that will go down the toilet.

[kerbiloid]

An alternative roadmap looking more realistic for me:

2018. SpaceX successfully tests chutes for unmanned Dragon capsule, again.

2020. SpaceX and several other companies or space agencies have successfully tested their reusable rockets.
Partially reusable - only the 1st stage, only one flight.
In the name of Safety, none of them was used twice.
Leading experts optimistically confirm that in perspective, the reusable rockets will cost not much than twice against a expendable rocket.
SpaceX declares a new plan: magnetic levitation space lift to LEO.

2024. ISS exploitation is prolonged for 5 years more, till 2029. If nobody will oppose in 2029, it will be automatically prolonged again, till 2034.

2030. A jubilee. Soyuz-TMAXYZ-114 meets Orion in its third flight.

2032. World space agencies agree to fly at least on something manned to the Moon orbit no later than 2038.

2038. ISS exploitation is automatically prolonged till 2044.

 

Edited February 3, 2016 by kerbiloid

[Nibb31]

10 years from now? 10 years is a short time in space history.

The ISS will be ended in 2024, or severely winding down. NASA funding with be transferred to the next best thing. 

Russia: still broke, with big plans for a new lunar space station, maybe a module or two, but I don't think PPTK will make it to 2026.

USA: I see two major paths:

Either the next president instructs NASA to refocus on the Moon in order to find a purpose for SLS/Orion. I don't think we'll have an actual Moon landing in 10 years, but work on landing infrastructure will be underway and we might have an EML gateway. ESA will probably be trying to cooperate in order to get some European flags up there.

Meanwhile, SpaceX is still dabbling with reusable rockets. Since there is little competition, launch prices will pretty much stay the same because they are still the cheapest shop in town, by far. They might have started building mockups for their MCT, but they will still be looking for a business plan or a customer willing to pay for it.

Or

The next president cancels SLS/Orion. A lot of internal debate and major budget reductions ensue, heads roll, and NASA is instructed to focus on Mars. NASA issues a Commercial Mars Development Program, that SpaceX wins with its MCT proposal. By 2026, we might be nearing the first unmanned test flight of the rocket. I don't expect a Mars landing until NET 2030 in any case.

China: They'll still be happily flying Shenzhou to their station, which might have 2 or 3 modules by 2026. They might also have done a circumlunar flight with Shenzhou, now that I think of it.

India: They might have launched a couple of astronauts into space.

ESA: I really don't see them going anywhere. They'll still be providing instruments and unmanned exploration I guess, bartering for seats on whatever NASA is doing by then.

Edited February 3, 2016 by Nibb31

[fredinno]

2 hours ago, Nibb31 said:

10 years from now? 10 years is a short time in space history.

The ISS will be ended in 2024, or severely winding down. NASA funding with be transferred to the next best thing. 

Russia: still broke, with big plans for a new lunar space station, maybe a module or two, but I don't think PPTK will make it to 2026.

USA: I see two major paths:

Either the next president instructs NASA to refocus on the Moon in order to find a purpose for SLS/Orion. I don't think we'll have an actual Moon landing in 10 years, but work on landing infrastructure will be underway and we might have an EML gateway. ESA will probably be trying to cooperate in order to get some European flags up there.

Meanwhile, SpaceX is still dabbling with reusable rockets. Since there is little competition, launch prices will pretty much stay the same because they are still the cheapest shop in town, by far. They might have started building mockups for their MCT, but they will still be looking for a business plan or a customer willing to pay for it.

Or

The next president cancels SLS/Orion. A lot of internal debate and major budget reductions ensue, heads roll, and NASA is instructed to focus on Mars. NASA issues a Commercial Mars Development Program, that SpaceX wins with its MCT proposal. By 2026, we might be nearing the first unmanned test flight of the rocket. I don't expect a Mars landing until NET 2030 in any case.

China: They'll still be happily flying Shenzhou to their station, which might have 2 or 3 modules by 2026. They might also have done a circumlunar flight with Shenzhou, now that I think of it.

India: They might have launched a couple of astronauts into space.

ESA: I really don't see them going anywhere. They'll still be providing instruments and unmanned exploration I guess, bartering for seats on whatever NASA is doing by then.

ISS: Hopefully operating until 2028-2030. I hope, that way, we can squeeze all of its design life out without having to do costly repairs.

NASA/ESA: I would hope that the first moon landing happens at the end of the ten years, to the same site Armstrong stepped at, to see the effects of long-term Moon exposure.

Space industry competion is strong, and new markets support Blue Origin and OrbitalATK's ventures into the larger rocket buisness. 

Also, Ariane 6 is supposed to have similar payload and be about the same cost as a Falcon Heavy. I really hope that industrial competion prevails, and SpaceX doesn't generate a huge amount of control over the launch market.

SLS is cancellation-proof. HR-365 basically made it so that if SLS is cancelled, we still need to pay up all the lost money that they would oterwise get to contractors. I think Constellation's cancellation left a bad taste in both the Public and Congress' mouths. I don't think it's very reasonable to expect cancellation of SLS will happen-even without HR-365, as by the time the next president somes in, in two years,the rocket is beginnning test flights. It's probably gone too far by this point.

Hmm, I doubt China will do a circumlunar flight any time soon. There isn't much to gain, and China would need to extensively mod their capsule.

[fredinno]

2 hours ago, kerbiloid said:

An alternative roadmap looking more realistic for me:

2018. SpaceX successfully tests chutes for unmanned Dragon capsule, again.

2020. SpaceX and several other companies or space agencies have successfully tested their reusable rockets.
Partially reusable - only the 1st stage, only one flight.
In the name of Safety, none of them was used twice.
Leading experts optimistically confirm that in perspective, the reusable rockets will cost not much than twice against a expendable rocket.
SpaceX declares a new plan: magnetic levitation space lift to LEO.

2024. ISS exploitation is prolonged for 5 years more, till 2029. If nobody will oppose in 2029, it will be automatically prolonged again, till 2034.

2030. A jubilee. Soyuz-TMAXYZ-114 meets Orion in its third flight.

2032. World space agencies agree to fly at least on something manned to the Moon orbit no later than 2038.

2038. ISS exploitation is automatically prolonged till 2044.

 

"SpaceX declares a new plan: magnetic levitation space lift to LEO."

...wait, what?

And not using a rocket stage twice misses the entire point of reuse.

 

Soyuz will never meet with an Orion- its provisions for deep space were removed long ago. And ONLY 3rd flight by 2030?  Orion already has 3 manifiested missions, all the way up to 2024. It's almost certain by then, some sort of payload will be developed for it, as even Congress knows it'll look stupid otherwise.

6 hours ago, tater said:

A reasonable cost? They have to beat the bushes and make up payloads for it since it's a rocket without payloads. 1 launch per year is the dead minimum just to not have NASA fold under the strain of keeping SLS active. It would not be reasonable without more launches than that. Also, to be reasonable, they have to have already needed the launcher. NASA doesn't want it, the congresscritters in the districts that make it want it.

There would be less of a dark age is NASA got the same budget, but was allowed to buy what they want with that money.

No space agency is ever really allowed to do what they want with their money, so NASA really isn't alone. 

And I made a thread today, a bunch of thhreads below this one, showing that SLS has a 1-launch per yr manifest to 2024. Of course, if ARM isn't cancelled, otherwise, that manifiest only goes up to 2023. 

 

But yeah, NASA needs payloads for that monster. But UHLVs are useful, losing Saturn V was a big loss.

[fredinno]

8 hours ago, Bill Phil said:

Here's the thing: if spending billions for many years can still result in a cancellation, then who would want to invest?

And we'd still have to pay the contractors Billions for cancellation fees. SLS was largely made to mitigate this, now the full brunt of it will hit NASA, and their flagship manned program WILL be cancelled for a few years.

7 hours ago, cubinator said:

Ideal: <everyone in power> "Why the heck are we still sitting on this tiny spot of dust when we could be in spaaace? Let's put lots of money into it and land on everything! We can even make space tourism so we can make more money to invest in more space exploration!" 

Optimistic: SLS gets those asteroid samples and the Mars 2020 rover lands, we get some satellites around the Moon, people land on the Moon again.

Probable: We won't have people on the moon until the '30s.

 

Actually, i'd say Lunar Orbital stations by 2025, and Lunar Surface by 2029-2031, since NASA already has much of the base technology needed to do both- and ESA wouldlikely be happy to jump aboard. But that's just me.

12 hours ago, tater said:

How could SpaceX possibly launch 30 times this year? The title should not read "Optimistically," but "Fantasy." They are scheduled for 14 right now: http://spaceflightnow.com/launch-schedule/

The list gets farther from reality as it goes on.

Also, LC-40 can only sustain 15 launches, so unless LC-39A opens to full use, or they have a LOT of polar launches, 30 times is too much.

[Nibb31]

5 minutes ago, fredinno said:

ISS: Hopefully operating until 2028-2030. I hope, that way, we can squeeze all of its design life out without having to do costly repairs.

As long as the ISS is around, NASA isn't going anywhere. The only way to fund any of NASA's exploration goals is to cancel the ISS asap.

 

5 minutes ago, fredinno said:

Also, Ariane 6 is supposed to have similar payload and be about the same cost as a Falcon Heavy. I really hope that industrial competion prevails, and SpaceX doesn't generate a huge amount of control over the launch market.

Ariane 64 is supposed to be 10,5 tons to GTO, which puts it right between Ariane 5 ME and ECA variants, way below Falcon Heavy. It might end up slightly cheaper than Ariane 5, but I doubt it will be competitive against Falcon 9. The main purpose of Ariane 5 is the GTO comsat market and a couple of institutional payloads.

 

5 minutes ago, fredinno said:

SLS is cancellation-proof. HR-365 basically made it so that if SLS is cancelled, we still need to pay up all the lost money that they would oterwise get to contractors. I think Constellation's cancellation left a bad taste in both the Public and Congress' mouths. I don't think it's very reasonable to expect cancellation of SLS will happen-even without HR-365, as by the time the next president somes in, in two years,the rocket is beginnning test flights. It's probably gone too far by this point.

Hmm, I doubt China will do a circumlunar flight any time soon. There isn't much to gain, and China would need to extensively mod their capsule.

H-365 is a law. Congress can do and undo laws. Nothing is cancellation-proof. If it sits around costing billions with nothing to launch, common sense will prevail, even with Congress. Then again...   That's why I really think that it has a 50% chance either way.

If they do have to keep SLS, then I think NASA will have to reorient itself towards the Moon instead of Mars. Whichever way you turn it, SLS and Orion are designed and scaled for cislunar missions, not Mars. It doesn't make any sense to shoehorn them into any other role.

[fredinno]

13 hours ago, Spaceception said:

The title says it all, here's my thoughts (By the way, you don't have to make it extremely detailed, and you can make your own ideas and divert from current plans, as long as they make at least some sense):

2016: SpaceX launches 30 times, with mostly reused first stages, they also successfully launch the Falcon heavy, Osiris rex launches, and Juno arrives at Jupiter

2017: TESS launches and begins looking for Exoplanets like Earth, and Falcon 9 does 40 launches, mostly re-launches from reused first stages

2018: JWST launches and begins taking over for Hubble, and the SLS/Orion launches with a successful mission, and the Falcon 9s 2nd stage successfully returns for a soft landing

2019: ESA begins testing the SABRE engine, and New horizons flies past 2014 MU69

2020: SpaceX test launches their MCT, and NASA launches the Mars 2020 rover and NASA diverts its Mars plans to the Moon as SpaceX is taking huge strides to establishing a colony, and NASA isn't needed for that

2021: India successfully launches their first manned space mission

2022: NASA launches Astronauts to lunar orbit to get ready for the 2023 mission and the Europa clipper launches

2023: NASA launches Astronauts to lunar orbit to study the boulder Osiris rex brings back

2024: NASA lands people back on the Moon with co-op from Europe, China, and Russia and JWST gets strong evidence for Alien life on an Exoplanet less than 20 ly away

2025 SpaceX gets ready for a manned Mars mission and they launch the Falcon 9/Heavy 80 times

2026: SpaceX launches 100 people to Mars, the colonization of Mars has begun and NASA/ESA/CSA/RSC establish a small lunar mining outpost

2017:  LC-39A + LC-41 can only support 30 launches, and that's if there are no delays. They would need 10 polar missions too, something I donot think is reasonable.

2018: JWST can't take over Hubble for things like Ultraviolet imaging, so saying JWST "replaces" Hubble is misleading. Also, the F9 second stage cannot be reused without signifcantly reducing the payload, or doing something like first stage diameter increase, which would mean that SpaceX would need to build barges for transport. It's not really possible at the moment.

2023: OsRis-Rex isn't designed for Orion retriveal. Orion+robotic sample return DOES work, just not with Osris Rex. Also, did you mean ARM? NASA's NET date for that is 2024.

2026: SPACEX FANBOYISM DETECTED!

[fredinno]

8 minutes ago, Nibb31 said:

As long as the ISS is around, NASA isn't going anywhere. The only way to fund any of NASA's exploration goals is to cancel the ISS asap.

 

Ariane 64 is supposed to be 10,5 tons to GTO, which puts it right between Ariane 5 ME and ECA variants, way below Falcon Heavy. It might end up slightly cheaper than Ariane 5, but I doubt it will be competitive against Falcon 9. The main purpose of Ariane 5 is the GTO comsat market and a couple of institutional payloads.

 

H-365 is a law. Congress can do and undo laws. Nothing is cancellation-proof. If it sits around costing billions with nothing to launch, common sense will prevail, even with Congress. Then again...   That's why I really think that it has a 50% chance either way.

If they do have to keep SLS, then I think NASA will have to reorient itself towards the Moon instead of Mars. Whichever way you turn it, SLS and Orion are designed and scaled for cislunar missions, not Mars. It doesn't make any sense to shoehorn them into any other role.

I agree SLS will only go to the moon. I really doubt anyone in a higher position really believes SLS will go to Mars, and the goal is being kept where it is becasue of Obama.

 

Actually, FH Reusable and Ariane 6 have similar GTO capability.https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/2bz9dw/what_is_the_leo_payload_of_a_fully_reusable/

With full (land) reuse of core and boosters, the GTO capacity of FH is 7T. With the land reuse of boosters, and sea landing of the core, it should be around 10T, which is the same as Ariane 6. 

And both have the same cost of $90 million per launch.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ariane_6#Ariane_62_and_Ariane_64

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_Heavy

[kerbiloid]

35 minutes ago, fredinno said:

"SpaceX declares a new plan: magnetic levitation space lift to LEO."

...wait, what?

And not using a rocket stage twice misses the entire point of reuse.

 

Soyuz will never meet with an Orion- its provisions for deep space were removed long ago. And ONLY 3rd flight by 2030?  Orion already has 3 manifiested missions, all the way up to 2024. It's almost certain by then, some sort of payload will be developed for it, as even Congress knows it'll look stupid otherwise.

No space agency is ever really allowed to do what they want with their money, so NASA really isn't alone. 

And I made a thread today, a bunch of thhreads below this one, showing that SLS has a 1-launch per yr manifest to 2024. Of course, if ARM isn't cancelled, otherwise, that manifiest only goes up to 2023. 

 

But yeah, NASA needs payloads for that monster. But UHLVs are useful, losing Saturn V was a big loss.

I just presumed that when SpaceX will be enough bothered with re(-try-to-)launchable rocket attempts and maglev train, a new super-idea would be - to combine them together and launch trains ("Dragon Express" of course) directly to Mars.

I mean - the third manned Orion flight. And still Soyuz, still being updated. As it happened with all previous great space programs.

[Pipcard]

14 hours ago, kunok said:

Sometimes i think this section should be called

Science & Spaceflight & Space X hype

I was expecting something realistic somewhat debatable but that's pure fantasy I'm tired off all that hype from space X

 

 

 

14 hours ago, Bill Phil said:

2018: SLS cancelled

2021: Dark age of spaceflight begins. Lasts until 2050. Perhaps much later. 

Oh, you wanted optimism? Well, what I said us still optimistic. Relative to my usual super pessimism regarding spaceflight.

Actually, with statements like this^, this section is both "overly optimistic SpaceX hype" and "overly pessimistic doom and gloom." And I disagree with both.

Edited February 3, 2016 by Pipcard