Weather Chat Megathread

[IncongruousGoat]

If nothing else, this thread has given me even more reason to never ever move to the tropics. The winters here may be harsh by southern standards, but having to deal with hurricanes on a yearly basis is a bit too much for me. At least the blizzards up here don't go knocking houses down, most of the time.

[ProtoJeb21]

Tropical Depression 14 has formed near the Yucatán Peninsula and could already be a tropical storm. Current Dvorak estimates suggest an intensity of 35-40 kt (40-45 mph), which will either be confirmed or disproven by an aircraft recon flight heading to investigate the system right now. Future Michael will be limited by horizontal wind shear, but that will weaken by 48 hours and allow thfor system to take advantage of the otherwise favorable conditions in the Gulf of Mexico. Several models are suggesting that Future Michael could rapidly intensify into a Category 2 or maybe even a Category 3 before making landfall on Wednesday. 

For anybody living on the Gulf Coast, start getting prepared NOW.

Edited October 7, 2018 by ProtoJeb21

[Green Baron]

[yesterday's data]

Edited October 8, 2018 by Green Baron

[SaturnianBlue]

I'm back! Hurricane Sergio might have weakened from its stint as a major hurricane, but at the same time, it has undergone a rather spectacular transition into an annular hurricane, doubling the size of its hurricane force wind field. The upcoming u-turn will also be quite interesting to watch, as it heads towards the Mexican coast. With the ACE of the EPAC/CPAC basin at 286, only one more unit has to be created before it surpasses 2015 in terms of ACE, placing it in a close 2nd behind 1992. 

Leslie, wherever it ends up going, will be a strange storm—either it will affect the Canary islands, Portugal, or even continental Africa, or it may have a high chance of becoming the longest lived tropical cyclone in the Atlantic.

Tropical Storm Michael will be a threat of some kind, and the threat seems to continuously rise. Even the NHC predicts a Category 2 at landfall on the Gulf Coast, and with the possibility of rapid intensification, there is some chance Michael could reach even higher wind speeds, especially since the storm will have double the amount of time over the Gulf of Mexico that Nate had last year.

[YNM]

On 10/5/2018 at 11:05 AM, IncongruousGoat said:

this thread has given me even more reason to never ever move to the tropics.

Brazil and The Guyanas doesn't see any cyclone. Nor Indonesia. You just have to move to dead center of the equator.

(that being said we have a crazy ton of active faults and volcanos, so probably Brazil. Or Ecuador and such.)

Edited October 8, 2018 by YNM

[Mrcarrot]

How to describe the last three weeks: rain. Rain. Rain.

I'm not entirely certain MInnesota has not been moved to Britain.

[SaturnianBlue]

@ProtoJeb21 Major Hurricane Michael has continued to be a shock—while the storm seemed to have an open eyewall earlier, it has closed off with an impressive amount of convection. -80C cloud tops are usually only seen in the West Pacific, but Michael is the exception. Now that the storm's eye is beginning to clear out, the storm might have yet another round of strengthening... 

[ProtoJeb21]

4 minutes ago, SaturnianBlue said:

@ProtoJeb21 Major Hurricane Michael has continued to be a shock—while the storm seemed to have an open eyewall earlier, it has closed off with an impressive amount of convection. -80C cloud tops are usually only seen in the West Pacific, but Michael is the exception. Now that the storm's eye is beginning to clear out, the storm might have yet another round of strengthening... 

You beat me to it!

Originally I wasn’t too sure that Michael would become a Category 4, but it seems almost certain now. Current recon flights have recorded winds of over 115 kt (130 mph) in some parts of the storm, and its pressure continues to drop by 1 mbar or more for each pass through the center. That ring of -80 C convection is even more concerning. The last time I saw anything like that was with Hurricane Norman when it peaked at 150 mph in late August, but it’s possible it was stronger than initially estimated. If Michael reaches Norman’s intensity, the impacts would be nothing short of catastrophic.

 

To anyone in Michael’s path, take NO chances with this storm. If you have the chance to evacuate, do it. I’m dead serious when I say that this could be worse than Irma’s Florida landfalls. 

[ProtoJeb21]

Hurricane Michael has rapidly intensified into a 140 mph Category 4 storm, and is expected to get even stronger in the ~12 hours before landfall. As I said last night, if you’re in the path of Michael and have the chance to evacuate, do so immediately. This is nothing to take lightly at all. Don’t risk your life by trying to ride it out. 

[tater]

https://weather.us/satellite/862-w-301-n/satellite-superhd-meso12.html#play8

Stay safe, FL peeps!

[ProtoJeb21]

Hurricane Michael may now be a Category 5 hurricane. The most recent recon pass has found a pressure as low as 920 mbar and winds around 160 mph. This is an absolute worst-case scenario. To everyone who didn’t evacuate, please stay safe. This is now life or death. 

EDIT: follow the recon flights here: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/

Edited October 10, 2018 by ProtoJeb21

[DarkOwl57]

Hearing your warnings are making me really glad that I'm living in West Texas, about 400 miles inland. 

[YNM]

We don't have atmospheric maelstrom but we definitely had a sea maelstrom.

[TheSaint]

48 minutes ago, DarkOwl57 said:

Hearing your warnings are making me really glad that I'm living in West Texas, about 400 miles inland. 

When the remnants of Rosa were headed our way, Thing Two was having a minor freakout. "We're going to get hit by a hurricane!" No, dude, by the time it gets to us it will be a bad rain storm. Relax.

[Silavite]

Spoiler

 

 

Mexico City Beach is in shambles... 

 

Spoiler

The eyewall has begun to contract, but until it collapses, the storm will not weaken very quickly. It is possible that we will see major hurricane force winds in Georgia and a small swath of Alabama later today.

[ProtoJeb21]

I’m still shocked that Hurricane Michael intensified so much all the way up until landfall. Officially, it struck as the second strongest Category 4 in Atlantic history, with 155 mph winds and a pressure of 919 mbar. Its pressure is second only to Hurricane Opal at 916 mbar (which did have lower winds of 150 mph). However, recon data suggests Michael may have gotten to Category 5 status right before landfall, but this will be hard to confirm or deny due to the very short time frame this took place in. 

If there’s any remotely promising news, it’s that Michael’s eye is (finally) starting to collapse, which should result in rapid degeneration of the storm through Friday. Unfortunately, it’s not weakening fast enough. Winds are still at Category 4 force, with the NHC assessing Michael as a 140 mph storm as of their latest advisory. 

[SaturnianBlue]

19 minutes ago, ProtoJeb21 said:

I’m still shocked that Hurricane Michael intensified so much all the way up until landfall. Officially, it struck as the second strongest Category 4 in Atlantic history, with 155 mph winds and a pressure of 919 mbar. Its pressure is second only to Hurricane Opal at 916 mbar (which did have lower winds of 150 mph). However, recon data suggests Michael may have gotten to Category 5 status right before landfall, but this will be hard to confirm or deny due to the very short time frame this took place in. 

If there’s any remotely promising news, it’s that Michael’s eye is (finally) starting to collapse, which should result in rapid degeneration of the storm through Friday. Unfortunately, it’s not weakening fast enough. Winds are still at Category 4 force, with the NHC assessing Michael as a 140 mph storm as of their latest advisory. 

For how long its been overland already, it's shocking that it hasn't weakened more—after 3 hours, winds are still at 125 mph, and the pressure has only increased to 932 millibars. Georgia is going to feel impacts from a major hurricane.

[TheKorbinjer]

A few days ago, my state (Oklahoma) recieved flooding rains, snow in the panhandle, 2 tornadoes, and an earthquake.

[LordFerret]

Please, don't hype and sensationalize this any more than the news... typically, they're doing a fine job of it as it is. Yes, it's a hurricane, and they're bad news period. This isn't Florida's first, nor will it be the last... and as always, people will rebuild.

Sit back for a moment and imagine what it was like before we had all of these fancy hi-tech warnings and science and data. You guys don't know what you're missing out on.

[razark]

52 minutes ago, LordFerret said:

Sit back for a moment and imagine what it was like before we had all of these fancy hi-tech warnings and science and data.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1943_Surprise_Hurricane

Quote

The hurricane occurred during World War II, with activity from a German U-boat expected in the Gulf of Mexico. As a result, ship reports were silenced. At the time, the Weather Bureau relied primarily on ship and land weather station observations for issue storm warnings. Additionally, advisories had to be cleared through the Weather Bureau office in New Orleans, Louisiana, causing them to be released hours late; moreover the advisories contained no forecast information, which would have allowed for preparation before the storm struck. ... After the loss of life in this storm, the Government of the United States has never censored hurricane advisories again.

 

[LordFerret]

@razark

That was a bit before my time, but I do remember being told the tale by my dad and uncle (both of them, Navy).

Edited October 11, 2018 by LordFerret

[razark]

It's before my time as well.  Your post just brought it to mind, and I thought it was one of those bits of history that people should hear about.

Even with it's local impact, you hardly ever hear about it in the area.

[Green Baron]

Lesley will be passing as a (post) tropical storm north of the Canaries tonight.

---------------

As expected, Michael has caused vast destruction and in some places there isn't much left. But fortunately only few people died.

[Kernel Kraken]

On 10/8/2018 at 8:57 AM, Mrcarrot said:

How to describe the last three weeks: rain. Rain. Rain.

I'm not entirely certain MInnesota has not been moved to Britain.

Same where I am. A cold front moved in and carried Lake Erie with it, the water levels are just starting to go down. There are lakes where there used to be fields.

[ProtoJeb21]

The long-lasting storms of the past two weeks are finally coming to a close. Hurricane Sergio has degraded to a remnant low after making landfall in Baja California, and Hurricane Leslie, while still a Category 1, is set to become post-tropical sometime tomorrow. I was hoping Leslie would curve back out into the Atlantic and last even longer, but that doesn’t seem to be the case anymore. It may make an exceptionally rare hurricane-force landfall in the Iberian Peninsula after passing very close to the Canary Islands. 

Hurricane Michael has also degraded to a rather strong remnant low/post tropical cyclone while passing south of New England. Yesterday it brought heavy rain and flash flood alerts. This morning, the rain had stopped, but the winds were quite high, with gusts up to tropical storm force. By about noon EST, all of Michael’s winds and convection had left, leaving a nearly perfectly clear sky. That would be great for looking at Mars or something, if I didn’t have a club meeting until 9 pm. Hopefully there’s some time afterwards. 

Edited October 12, 2018 by ProtoJeb21
Time, not tim