Weather Chat Megathread

[Frybert]

Spoiler

 

Just took this picture from my back door.  This winter just will not end!

[Ultimate Steve]

Yay, my county is under a tornado warning...

[ProtoJeb21]

For weeks, I’ve been complaing that it’s too cold. Now I’m complaining about it being too hot. And by “too hot” I mean over 85 degrees Fahrenheit for the last two days. Right now it’s 89 F out and likely to reach or slightly exceed 91 F.

[LordFerret]

Yep... 90 degrees F today. We're sitting out in the yard, sipping cold drinks, watching all the critters. I'm tempted to make a run over to the beach, although I know the water is still frigid.

Edited May 3, 2018 by LordFerret

[qzgy]

TOO DAMN HOT. Same as the Lord of Ferrets, ~90F (~32 degrees In normal units), and kinda humid too.
Pollen is also a problem for my eyes....

[XB-70A]

If anybody is interested, here is a link to access some data from GOES-16, covering the Americas, and Himawari-8, covering Oceania and Western Pacific.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=10848&y=10848&z=0&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p[0]=16&opacity[0]=1&hidden[0]=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

 

You can easily select many different frequency options, such as I.R. or short-wave albedo. Really interesting to see the different path of the storm systems from the 2017 Atlantic & Pacific Season.

 

Also, for the SKEW-T fanatics this web site is interesting:

http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/sounding.html

I tended to always look at it on launch days, but the Cape Canaveral AFS is not available here anymore.

Hopefully, it is still available here:

http://weather.unisys.com/upper_air/skew/ua_sound.php?type=no&city=kxmr&region=se&t=cur&expanddiv=hide_bar

https://www.weather.gov/smg/KSCSNDG

Edited May 4, 2018 by XB-70A

[cubinator]

I hear a nice thunderstorm...

[SaturnianBlue]

5 days before the official start of the 2018 Pacific Hurricane Season, Tropical Depression One-E has formed! Just one year and one day since Tropical Storm Adrian set the record for the record earliest formation in the East Pacific.

[TheKosanianMethod]

We had a large storm roll over us last night, big dark clouds. Couple lightning flashes, a little rain. It was hot enough that I wore shorts while playing baseball. It's 75F right now,

[ProtoJeb21]

On 5/10/2018 at 6:15 PM, SaturnianBlue said:

5 days before the official start of the 2018 Pacific Hurricane Season, Tropical Depression One-E has formed! Just one year and one day since Tropical Storm Adrian set the record for the record earliest formation in the East Pacific.

Too bad it won’t ever get to tropical storm strength. It would’ve been cool to have three consecutive years of before-season named East Pacific storms. 

10 hours ago, TheKosanianMethod said:

We had a large storm roll over us last night, big dark clouds. Couple lightning flashes, a little rain. It was hot enough that I wore shorts while playing baseball. It's 75F right now,

Same here. It was not fun. 

[CobaltShock]

Hey! I'm from Northern Virginia (just outside of Washington DC), and I'm a big fan of weather. Particularly winter weather. Hearing word about the potential for a Derecho in the coming hours , which will probably mean no power for days. One of the many reasons I'm not a big fan of severe weather

On 7/17/2016 at 9:19 PM, ProtoJeb21 said:

How weird, crazy, or dangerous has your weather gotten? 

I've got a full list. Living in the DC area, we aren't used to severe storms, blizzards, bitter cold, intense heat, or hurricanes, even though we can get each and every one of these (albeit rare)

1) February 10th 2010 Blizzard

I was very young at the time, but I remember this one well. A storm that transferred off the coast and had wind speeds of up to category 2 battered our area with some of the strongest winds in a winter storm. Some areas to the North got around 2 feet (61cm), while we got only about a foot (30.5 cm) of snow. Despite this, winds were the huge story, with non-stop blizzard conditions. What makes this even more crazy was that just 4 days prior we got one of our all time greatest snowstorms on February 5th-6th (20-30" or 50-76 cm regionwide), and were already shutdown from this. Coupled with 2 smaller storms before that, and most areas had over 36" (91.5 cm) of snow on the ground, with drifts up to the 2nd story on some buildings. Despite no snow after that and one of the hottest springs in our region, some snow piles survived until May (which is unheard of at our latitude). Oh yeah, and we average around 20" (50 cm) of snow a year, and that year we got around 60-80" (152-203 cm)

2) February 5-6th 2010 Blizzard

The big blizzard. One of the largest winter storms in the history of the DC area. One of the airports just West of DC recorded 32" of snow (81 cm), breaking the previous record by a foot of snow. The storm started wet and clingy with snow, and so before long many lost power. A gigantic tree in our backyard fell in the middle of the night as well, and so we're lucky that we didn't get hit by the tree. Winds weren't as insane, but waking up to over a foot of snow after falling to sleep with less than half a foot of snow is something special (and something I'll always remember)

3) June 29 2012 Derecho

Don't remember too many details, but all I remember was the pounding winds and hail. We lost power almost instantly, and it was impossible to sleep during that night. Glad nobody was caught out in it, but it was still a sight to see. The following days felt sort of like an apocalyptic-type scenario, as we didn't get our power back for nearly a week..

4) October 27-29 Hurricane Sandy

Again, don't remember too much. My dad picked up a generator, and so we dodged a bullet as most people in the neighborhood lost power for about 4 days. The hurricane just basically parked over us and dropped mountains of rain on us. Wasn't particularly dangerous, but for costal areas off to our east it was a dangerous situation

5) January 26th 2011 Snowstorm

The date I will probably remember for the rest of my life, being the day that I got into weather. A thump of snow turned to rain in the first wave as we were waiting for the 2nd wave of snow. I was eagerly watching the weather channel waiting for the immediate changeover. Before I knew it, at around 2 or 3 pm, the changeover to snow happened. At that time I couldn't believe my eyes. Despite being above freezing (at near 34 F or 1 C), the snow instantly stuck everywhere, including roads. That was about the heaviest I had ever seen snow fall. We got about 8" of snow in 6 hours, except about 5 or 6 of falling in nearly 2 hours. The snow was coming down in sheets, almost like a summer rainstorm. Here's a link to the immediate changeover time (the darker blues show the intensity of the storm. I live just north of the southern extent of the snow): https://imgur.com/a/iHfjaO2

 

Another notable event would be a blizzard in 2016, although that storm was not nearly as unique as all of these other events. 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited May 14, 2018 by Steeeeve

[CobaltShock]

Looks rather ominous on radar

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=LWX-N0Q-1-12

 

Edited May 14, 2018 by Steeeeve

[NSEP]

It was pretty darn hot in the Netherlands, last week it was like 28C for 3 days. The weather channel keeps sayigng its going to turn back to Autunm weather but thats not happending.

[CobaltShock]

Rotation with the storm now. Should miss that rotation to the South. Reports of baseball sized hail with it. 

Edit: am now in tornado warned storm. 

Edit Edit: Storm weakened a decent big before it hit us. Power flickered multiple times. Still an impressive storm

Edited May 15, 2018 by Steeeeve

[TheKosanianMethod]

16 hours ago, Steeeeve said:

Rotation with the storm now. Should miss that rotation to the South. Reports of baseball sized hail with it. 

Edit: am now in tornado warned storm. 

Edit Edit: Storm weakened a decent big before it hit us. Power flickered multiple times. Still an impressive storm

My power went out around 6PM, it came back around midnight. I was pulling stuff off my front lawn when a recycling bin flew at me. That was fun. I also got some good pictures, I'll put them up at some point.

[ProtoJeb21]

A monster storm is heading towards my area now, with the threat of 70 mph wind gusts and quarter-sized hail. I am freaking out here...

[CobaltShock]

9 hours ago, TheKosanianMethod said:

My power went out around 6PM, it came back around midnight. I was pulling stuff off my front lawn when a recycling bin flew at me. That was fun. I also got some good pictures, I'll put them up at some point.

Do you live in Maryland by any chance? If so, check this out. From tonight's storm. wow

 

[TheKosanianMethod]

On 5/15/2018 at 9:04 PM, Steeeeve said:

Do you live in Maryland by any chance? If so, check this out. From tonight's storm. wow

 

Nope one state south. Not gonna say exactly where, but I will say that it's still drizzling here. Now nature is just trolling us.

[Guest]

Just hot. 95+°F(35+°C) highs this week, and predicted highs of 100°F or more next week.

[adsii1970]

On 5/15/2018 at 2:56 PM, ProtoJeb21 said:

A monster storm is heading towards my area now, with the threat of 70 mph wind gusts and quarter-sized hail. I am freaking out here...

As an old salty person, let me be the first to tell you - never fear the weather. Only show her you respect her power. As Frank Herbert wrote in Dune, "fear is the mind-killer."

I've survived hurricanes, tornadoes, dust storms, hail storms, and lightening storms (even went through a thunder-snowstorm one time). I'm one of those crazies who will sit on the back porch and watch the storms come in...

[ProtoJeb21]

The tropics are coming alive again. Invest-91E has been designated in the Eastern Pacific and has an almost defined closed circulation. The NHC gives it a 100% chance of developing within the next two days, and they note it will likely become a tropical storm or depression later tonight. When it reaches tropical storm strength it will be given the name Aletta. Another area of low pressure is expected to form in the next few days in 91E's tail and is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone as well by this weekend, likely getting the name Bud. I checked the GFS model on Tropical Tidbits and the model on Ventusky, and both suggest Invest-91E could become a very powerful storm. Like, potentially a Category 5. Although I think the estimated peak intensity of ~930 mbar and ~160 mph is overblown, the very high sea surface temperatures (SSTs) where 91E is developing (around 30 to 31 Celsius) will allow for a good amount of intensification. I expect it to reach major hurricane status pretty easily by Thursday or Friday. Meanwhile, the second area of low pressure will stay closer to this 30+ Celsius hotspot, unlike 91E, which will move closer to the Baja California peninsula and into colder waters. Ventusky suggests that future Bud could reach wind speeds of over 165 mph, which I also think are blown out of proportion. Maybe a Category 4 at peak intensity, but I find it hard to believe that a Category 5 hurricane could form in the East Pacific in June. Based on previous seasons, this seems unlikely. Category 5s in the East Pacific are uncommon to begin with, and one (or two) in June is pushing the limit of possibility. But who knows, it could be possible. One thing's for certain, though. Both future systems will spend most of their lifespans in very favorable conditions with extremely warm water, which will likely get one or both of them to Category 3 intensity or higher.

[SaturnianBlue]

@ProtoJeb21 Personally, I think the storms will be much, much weaker. The NHC forecast has been fairly reliable, and Aletta has only become slightly stronger over the past days, and it'll soon run out of time to strengthen before it hits cooler waters and wind shear. So my guess would be a category 1 hurricane. As for Bud, possibly a little stronger, but nothing major.

[ProtoJeb21]

15 hours ago, SaturnianBlue said:

@ProtoJeb21 Personally, I think the storms will be much, much weaker. The NHC forecast has been fairly reliable, and Aletta has only become slightly stronger over the past days, and it'll soon run out of time to strengthen before it hits cooler waters and wind shear. So my guess would be a category 1 hurricane. As for Bud, possibly a little stronger, but nothing major.

Yeah, it looks like Aletta won’t reach major hurricane status. I spent a good 20 minutes going over various models and forecasts and maps on Tropical Tidbits, and my conclusion is that Aletta will max out as a Category 2 hurricane somewhere around Saturday. Almost all models that don’t underestimate the strength of a storm suggest it will bottom out at around 965 to 970 mbar, comparable to a Category 2 or high-end Category 1 hurricane. While Aletta is currently in warm oceans of about 28 C, those waters will quickly become much cooler around Aletta’s location at the end of the weekend. Meanwhile, Future Bud will stay much closer to that 30+ C hotspot off the coast of Mexico. It’s future is uncertain at the moment, but development is likely between late Friday and early Sunday, and it has a chance of surpassing Aletta’s predicted max intensity. I’m guessing Future Bud will peak as a Category 2 or Category 3, but we’ll just have to wait and see. Even more uncertain is Future Beryl. I noticed that in most models, a low pressure area forms in the southwest Caribbean on Sunday/Monday and moves north, becoming a tropical storm when passing by Cuba and potentially striking the Florida panhandle as a Category 1 hurricane next Wednesday. Since this is pretty far out in the future, the forcast will likely chance, but it’s definitely something to keep an eye on. Currently, Future Beryl looks like it will end up being a storm similar to last year’s Hurricane Nate or this year’s Subtropical Storm Alberto. 

UPDATE: Tropical Tidbits says that Aletta has reached hurricane intensity with winds of 65 kt/75 mph and a minimum central pressure of 987 mbar. 

[ProtoJeb21]

@SaturnianBlue I was right! According to Tropical Tidbits, Hurricane Aletta has reached Category 2 intensity with winds of 85 kt/100 mph. Looks like it’s begun a phase of rapid intensification. I wonder how far it’ll go before less favorable conditions limit additional strengthening. 

[SaturnianBlue]

@ProtoJeb21 It's official—Aletta has undergone rapid intensification to become at Category 2 hurricane. Look like it has a serious shot at major hurricane status in the next day before it starts hitting cooler waters.

To quote the NHC:

The chance of a another 20-kt
increase in the next 12 hours is just under 50 percent, so it's not
out of the question that Aletta could reach major hurricane
strength on Friday.

The invest behind is slowly becoming more likely to develop.

Edited June 8, 2018 by SaturnianBlue