Will we ever have to evacuate the solar system?

[magnemoe]

10 minutes ago, HebaruSan said:

If I recall correctly: Build a giant tube, stick it in Uranus, then induce fusion inside so exhaust shoots out the end of the tube and pushes the planet. Eventually maneuver it to fling Earth into orbit of Jupiter.

This, and yes compared with the fleet of worlds is very realistic  
no need for reactionless engines able to push planets up to relativistic speeds. That while not getting pushed trough the crust of the planet nor boiling the area around the engine. 

Now you could do the world out of time part in an more realistic way, you need an huge and solid asteroid, put an fusion engine on it, send it on an earth flyby with an gravity turn, you want it solid to not break up on flyby, then new slingshot around Jupiter or Saturn and new Earth flyby, continue this for geological time and you will change earth orbit. 

[kerbiloid]

Not much sense in a standalone Earth evacuation, because why do you need a frozen Earth?

 

[magnemoe]

58 minutes ago, kerbiloid said:

Not much sense in a standalone Earth evacuation, because why do you need a frozen Earth?

 

Good point, think purpose here was to move it outward a bit to compensate for sun getting hotter. 

[peadar1987]

While our activities on earth are pretty catastrophic for large parts of the ecosystem, and are going to lead to huge suffering for many humans, we're still a looooooong way off from making the planet less hospitable for life than space. Even full-on nuclear war scorching the surface to a cinder, you'd be better off living underground in a bunker pressurised to 1.1 bar. Any leaks would go out the way, and filtering contaminated air is a lot easier than complete closed-loop life support.

Even for something like Seveneves, underground is an infinitely better option.

[radonek]

On Monday December 05, 2016 at 2:21 AM, Starman4308 said:

The timescales for any reasonable threat to the solar system (i.e. the evolution of the Sun into a red giant) are so far out that they're not worth worrying about; we need to fix up our situation here before worrying about going interstellar. I don't know of anything that could even pose a threat to the solar system before the Sun becomes too hot to sustain life on Earth. Even a supernova has to be within about 3 parsecs to threaten Earth's biosphere

I heard a figure of about 400ly safe distance for Ia type supernova. And much more for some other types. There are also gamma ray busts, whole catalogue of inconveniently close encounters of dangerous kinds or just good 'ol rocks on collision course. And yes, our dear dirtball survived a lot of this fun stuff so far. But even if you may think that "mass extinction event" sounds like a great party, none of this is proof that bigger rock may not do it.
 

[Green Baron]

The dirt is just superficial. Can be blown off without much effort (GRB, impact, ...). GRB comes statistically and out of the blue. Impact is improbable and needs to be really big. It was pretty improbable that it got that far in the last 4by. Given the way we treat our environment and ressources it gets ever more probable that one day soon(tm) there will not be enough room for everybody. So far so clear.

But evacuate ? Whom ? Where ? With what ? How to make a living elsewhere ? And who guarantees that things go better there ? It'll be a very vulnerable and unstable artificial environment. Of course everything is possible in a science fiction movie and in "Science & Spaceflight" :-)))

The biggest dangers are our own changes to the environment. The realistic approach is to be more careful with what we got. I have my doubts that we're intelligent enough, history (not pre-history !) teaches us that humans only care about the future on a personal and short-term basis, the own offspring is not included. We are selfish (i mean hat personal, not as a species) and that alone is a counterargument that such an effort will ever work. Not speaking of the technological impossibilties of an evacuation.

[magnemoe]

1 hour ago, radonek said:

I heard a figure of about 400ly safe distance for Ia type supernova. And much more for some other types. There are also gamma ray busts, whole catalogue of inconveniently close encounters of dangerous kinds or just good 'ol rocks on collision course. And yes, our dear dirtball survived a lot of this fun stuff so far. But even if you may think that "mass extinction event" sounds like a great party, none of this is proof that bigger rock may not do it.
 

It looks like the major extinction level events is linked to impacts or geological events. 
Not supernovas or gamma ray burst, later looks very bad. 
Benefit of asteroids or comets is that they can be redirected. 

And something being dangerous is not the same as an its an  extinction level event. 

[kerbiloid]

3 hours ago, magnemoe said:

Benefit of asteroids or comets is that they can be redirected. 

If one is speaking about the Earth redirection, asteroids are just a dust.

The same with terraforming, If you can plow over a whole planet, then giant asteroids getting close are just cheap pieces of ore, nothing more.
So the idea "Let's terraform Mars to have a backup against a giant asteroid" looks strange.

Edited December 6, 2016 by kerbiloid

[radonek]

3 hours ago, magnemoe said:

It looks like the major extinction level events is linked to impacts or geological events. 
Not supernovas or gamma ray burst, later looks very bad.

GRB is suspected of at least one extinction. Well, IMO more than anything it says that we actually do know little about this stuff, one way or other. And our view is bound to be kinda biased, at least until we can visit some other star systems, count remnants of civilizations (or lack thereof) and do a proper statistic.  But I don't want to sound panicky, I totally agree that homo-so-called-sapiens presents much more immediate danger.
 

[Jonfliesgoats]

Would it be necessary to evacuate earth?

As others pointed out, not for a human-induced ecological catastrophe.  We may screw up and kill many billions of ourselves, but this planet will be able to grow some biomass.

For major geological or impact events, we almost certainly need leave Earth given sufficiently long periods of time.

Evacuating the solar system?  It's possible.  The Sun is going to die, eventually.  Survival of the species depends on having a presence off Earth.  Presumeably the same factors would encourage us to leave our solar system.

 

[KAL 9000]

Colonization will be a lot easier in 50 years. We're going bionic, so we won't need water, food, air, or crops. Just energy and spare parts. 

Or there will be an AI/robot uprising. Same easiness. 

MEATY FLESHBAGS, YOUR PLANET WILL SOON BE OURS!

Edited December 7, 2016 by KAL 9000

[PB666]

Lol, giant tube in Uranus. We have the stellorator, the toroid, and now the enima fusion reactor.

Lets consider that the rate of acceleration would be so small that the orbit would be elliptical that Saturn or Jupiter would toss Uranus into the grass of outerspace.

Someday Earthlings may leave the solar system, I seriously doubt it will be 'we' by any stretch of the imagination. We are currently progressing at highest velocities of about 10,000 m/s per generation and to get to the nearest habitable system would take a reasonable 100 years at 0.1 c (meaning 3x10⁷ m/s) and we are talking about 3 x 10³ years. We are doomed unless we dont markedly alter the education and political system on the planet, so don't see us lasting that long.

Yeah, lots of fantastic speculation here, nothing much in the way of reality.

I think the next big break through in speed will come when we fundamentally understand how quantum space-time resolves.

[GoSlash27]

 I don't ever envision an emergency evacuation of Earth.

If we lack the technology to transport and sustain a colony in interstellar flight, there's no point in trying it. If we have the technology to do that, then they'd already be living out there.

Best,
-Slashy

[DrunkenKerbalnaut]

On December 5, 2016 at 5:45 PM, HebaruSan said:

If I recall correctly: Build a giant tube, stick it in Uranus, then induce fusion inside so exhaust shoots out the end of the tube and pushes the planet. Eventually maneuver it to fling Earth into orbit of Jupiter.

Richard Gere has managed some startling research in this field. Or at least the internet would have me believe. 

...

In the theory of colonizing asteroids and 'metabolizing' them for use as both ship and reaction mass; what fuels this process? 

[Ozymandias_the_Goat]

I don't think it is practical for a mass exodus from the solar system without a faster than light method of propulsion. Hopefully by the time we figure out how to build that, or can 100% guarantee it is impossible, we will hopefully have fixed the Earth by then. If we do not clean up our act by then, there will probably not be any more humans around to build an FTL drive.

With near light speed,you could reach other planets, if you intend to never come home. If this is truly and evacuation, then that might be possible, but not practical. But hopefully this will not be a problem in our lifetime...

[DoctorDavinci]

I recommend this channel for all who are interested ... There is a wealth of information and ideas in these videos and many of them directly adress what is being discussed here

Issac Arthur is the dude's name and I have found the things he has talked about in his video's are quite interesting

Channel Link: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCZFipeZtQM5CKUjx6grh54g

Website Link: www.IsaacArthur.net

 

Edited January 2, 2017 by DoctorDavinci

[mikegarrison]

On 12/4/2016 at 10:58 PM, todofwar said:

Wonder how scalable that Asimov scenario is. Would it be possible to put the Earth itself into an escape trajectory? Attach some big <SNIP> lamps (BFL, patent pending) to the moon to let it simulate the sun for us and take it along for the ride. I'm assuming the earth is already screwed for life aside from us, why not make it a spaceship? This would be for a "we spotted a rogue black hole approaching that will absorb the sun" type scenario.

It's been done before in fiction.

Probably my favorite version is the Alan Dean Foster short story "With Friends Like These ..." (found in the collection of the same name).

Edited January 5, 2017 by Frybert

[SR]

In 5 billion years the sun will expand and destroy the Earth, Venus and Mercury.

It will also increase the temperature of Mars massively.

[Bill Phil]

On ‎1‎/‎6‎/‎2017 at 3:11 PM, SR said:

In 5 billion years the sun will expand and destroy the Earth, Venus and Mercury.

It will also increase the temperature of Mars massively.

Way before that, however, Earth will be rendered uninhabitable. The sun gets hotter with time.

Now, if our god-like descendants could put a lense in front of the Earth...

[Robotengineer]

Assuming we don't wipe ourselves out/get wiped out, yes. It's not going to happen anytime soon, and there are much more pressing concerns (climate change, AI, and sustainable energy). 

[kerbiloid]

All we need is to invent a time machine and put the Earth into a time loop.
This will exclude any possible disaster, including the Sun heating and the Universe Heat Death. As well, no future alien invasions or so.

[wumpus]

Best way to learn this is to watch what Kitibati does.  Kiribati is an island nation in the Pacific steadily going underwater.  I can't say I wasn't at all surprised that New Orleans is still populated despite being below sea-level and on the Gulf of Mexico.

PS.  The tech required to move billions of people out of the solar system is so far beyond the tech required to lift them to LEO is unthinkable.  It would be like a "world wide airlift" at a "Star Wars" tech level.

PPS.  Assuming that we couldn't "just" move to Mars/terraform Venus, the star Proxima Centuari orbits should be good for roughly the life of much of the universe (or at least much longer than the universe has already existed).  You would almost certainly have to genetically engineer *all* humans to be less destructive, or there's no way we could keep a planet intact for even a million years.

[magnemoe]

On 11.1.2017 at 8:19 PM, wumpus said:

Best way to learn this is to watch what Kitibati does.  Kiribati is an island nation in the Pacific steadily going underwater.  I can't say I wasn't at all surprised that New Orleans is still populated despite being below sea-level and on the Gulf of Mexico.

PS.  The tech required to move billions of people out of the solar system is so far beyond the tech required to lift them to LEO is unthinkable.  It would be like a "world wide airlift" at a "Star Wars" tech level.

PPS.  Assuming that we couldn't "just" move to Mars/terraform Venus, the star Proxima Centuari orbits should be good for roughly the life of much of the universe (or at least much longer than the universe has already existed).  You would almost certainly have to genetically engineer *all* humans to be less destructive, or there's no way we could keep a planet intact for even a million years.

Kitibati has an issue being coral reef on top of old volcanic islands. After the volcanoes died only the coral reed growth keeps it up wile the volcanoes sink down and as the corrals only live underwater.
The coral islands survived the end of the ice age and the 125 meter rise in ocean level, the islands was probably underwater for thousands of years making them impractical to live on, then people start colonizing the pasifc islands they had already build up above sea level. 
Underwater cities are either because you dam up sea bottom to get more land like in Holland or because ground level sink because you pump out the ground water, both has some dangers. 

Both of this are easy to fix compared to evacuate an planet, even more so to another star system Both are very sci-fi today. 
 

[WinkAllKerb'']

some will leave some will stay, sound fairly simple to me, and imho leaving without as much diversity as possible is counter darwin and a dead end.

https://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=dna+macro+fragment+assimilation+and+post+processing+over+generations

just my lite autistic view & 2cp around the topic

 

Spoiler

primitive soup + https://cestpasdessalades.files.wordpress.com/2014/07/you_are_here1.png + wow this tree grow slowly compared to human lifespan and your telling me that sometime thing don't interact with post and back inter crossing processing, well i doubt

 

Edited January 24, 2017 by WinkAllKerb''