YNM Posted May 7, 2021 Share Posted May 7, 2021 10 hours ago, sevenperforce said: Last update for the night. I like how ocean splashdown is 70% vs 30% for on-land impact... just like the average sea : land ratio... XD So yeah, fingers cross, will see if any of us wins a jackpot ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sevenperforce Posted May 7, 2021 Share Posted May 7, 2021 3 hours ago, YNM said: I like how ocean splashdown is 70% vs 30% for on-land impact... just like the average sea : land ratio... XD So yeah, fingers cross, will see if any of us wins a jackpot ! The actual amount of water coverage in this particular region is about 74% so it's a little less ideal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerbiloid Posted May 7, 2021 Share Posted May 7, 2021 I remember same hype before the Skylab fall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beccab Posted May 7, 2021 Share Posted May 7, 2021 7 minutes ago, kerbiloid said: I remember same hype before the Skylab fall. Well, debris from that did hit land, so it seems kind of justified Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerbiloid Posted May 7, 2021 Share Posted May 7, 2021 8 minutes ago, Beccab said: Well, debris from that did hit land, so it seems kind of justified But it weighted 80+ tonnes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YNM Posted May 7, 2021 Share Posted May 7, 2021 3 hours ago, sevenperforce said: The actual amount of water coverage in this particular region is about 74% so it's a little less ideal. 4% more chance for everyone to receive their jackpot... 2 hours ago, kerbiloid said: But it weighted 80+ tonnes. Still a quarter of it, not that bad I suppose Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoeSchmuckatelli Posted May 7, 2021 Share Posted May 7, 2021 Is any of this tracking /prediction info being provided by CNSA or is it all coming from western commercial / government sources? Seems like a public relations nightmare waiting to happen if they are not out in front of it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCgothic Posted May 7, 2021 Share Posted May 7, 2021 And Russia is being surprisingly open with their tracking data as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tater Posted May 7, 2021 Author Share Posted May 7, 2021 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sevenperforce Posted May 7, 2021 Share Posted May 7, 2021 2 hours ago, JoeSchmuckatelli said: Is any of this tracking /prediction info being provided by CNSA or is it all coming from western commercial / government sources? It's all coming from international (non-Chinese) sources. China keeps insisting there is no danger and that it will definitely come down in the water. They have a 72% (by my latest numbers) chance of being right, so they're bluffing. For any of y'all here in the States, I did a ground track map. The chance of it re-entering over the United States is 5.85%. If it does come down over the United States, the breakup could be visible for up to half the country. The most likely re-entry path (that will be visible to the U.S. at least) will be the one that goes from Texas to Delaware between 12:49 AM and 12:55 AM EDT. Coincidentally that's also the one that's most likely to drop debris on me. If current predictions hold until morning (that is, if the window narrows about 50% without moving) then the odds of entry in Asia, Australia, South America, or the Mediterranean will be negligible and it will be the ocean at 74%, Africa at 11%, and North America at 9%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tater Posted May 7, 2021 Author Share Posted May 7, 2021 I'm liking that ~6:40 am pass, hopefully some lands in my yard (as long as it misses the house itself ). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tater Posted May 7, 2021 Author Share Posted May 7, 2021 Actually, what's the visual magnitude of that puppy? Wonder if we can see it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tater Posted May 7, 2021 Author Share Posted May 7, 2021 @sevenperforce what TZ are the times listed in? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xd the great Posted May 8, 2021 Share Posted May 8, 2021 1 hour ago, tater said: @sevenperforce what TZ are the times listed in? EDT? Upper right hand corner. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tater Posted May 8, 2021 Author Share Posted May 8, 2021 Just now, Xd the great said: EDT? Upper right hand corner. Doh! Missed that Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nothalogh Posted May 8, 2021 Share Posted May 8, 2021 On 5/1/2021 at 5:04 PM, sevenperforce said: but below New York Sadly Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOXBLOX Posted May 8, 2021 Share Posted May 8, 2021 2 hours ago, sevenperforce said: The most likely re-entry path (that will be visible to the U.S. at least) will be the one that goes from Texas to Delaware between 12:49 AM and 12:55 AM EDT. Coincidentally that's also the one that's most likely to drop debris on me. LOL, me too. It goes straight over me here in East Texas. I actually kinda hope it does fall around here. I wanna see that thing break up... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cubinator Posted May 8, 2021 Share Posted May 8, 2021 Satflare's map shows a US reentry to be unlikely: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xd the great Posted May 8, 2021 Share Posted May 8, 2021 I propose we launch jeb to fix the 2nd stage. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tater Posted May 8, 2021 Author Share Posted May 8, 2021 (the thread goes on about other areas) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YNM Posted May 8, 2021 Share Posted May 8, 2021 (edited) 4 hours ago, cubinator said: Satflare's map shows a US reentry to be unlikely: Well, the orbit that passes close to my city is gone as well... Still some chance of it re-entering in the territory though ! EDIT : Although honestly that map's cutoff is not great. Edited May 8, 2021 by YNM Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerbiloid Posted May 8, 2021 Share Posted May 8, 2021 (edited) 26 minutes ago, YNM said: the orbit that passes close to my city is gone as well The rocket reads this thread and filters out those who is aware of, because it anyway can't surprise them. Edited May 8, 2021 by kerbiloid Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YNM Posted May 8, 2021 Share Posted May 8, 2021 (edited) 13 minutes ago, kerbiloid said: The rocket reads this thread and filters out those who is aware of, because it anyway can't surprise them. Yeah from the prediction from Aerospace Corp. 8 hrs ago, my 'lucky' path would be the very last pass on the prediction. Should be weeded out soon I suppose, it's not on satflare or EUSST already. <br /> Edited May 8, 2021 by YNM Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDE Posted May 8, 2021 Share Posted May 8, 2021 Roscosmos places its bet on the Timor sea, May 9 2:30 MSK (UTC+3). https://tass.ru/kosmos/11327129 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YNM Posted May 8, 2021 Share Posted May 8, 2021 (edited) 1 hour ago, DDE said: Timor sea, May 9 2:30 MSK (UTC+3). So about May 9 07:30 UTC+8 / 06:30 UTC+7... Would be some bolide I guess... From CSpOC : EDIT : EUSST coming up with 02:11 UTC +- 190 mins : Edited May 8, 2021 by YNM Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.