Chinese Space Program (CNSA) & Ch. commercial launch and discussion

[tater]

 

Edited May 8, 2021 by tater

[YNM]

... Right, so Roscosmos was stating my place as the start of the predicted re-entry point. Midpoint still on the same orbit plane (ground track plane ?) as the EUSST prediction.

If there're any Australians here, probably from Perth or Tasmania, you're having the highest chance of a jackpot I say...

(EDIT 2) Aerospace Corp. has updated their predictions :

EDIT : Space-Track has updated theirs as well :

Spoiler

(EDIT 3) Comparison of the five predictions, arranged from the fastest re-entry prediction (midpoint of re-entry window) :

 

Edited May 8, 2021 by YNM
Updated Aerospace Corp. (2), Added SatFlare (3)

[kerbiloid]

1 hour ago, YNM said:

If there're any Australians here, probably from Perth or Tasmania, you're having the highest chance of a jackpot I say...

From China with love.

P.S.
Canadians gained a (partially) whole reactor in their time.
Lucky ones.

Edited May 8, 2021 by kerbiloid

[YNM]

6 hours ago, kerbiloid said:

From China with love.

Given the new Aerospace Corp. predictions might be Middle East instead (being in between all four predictions).

18-SPCS/CSpOC update next in 6 hrs.

EDIT : As of 16:22 UTC, Satflare prediction's midpoint is before the Americas :

Satflare continuously updates their main images however :

Spoiler

Still a bit less chance for Australia, given the midpoint, probably extra for Middle East.

EDIT 2 : Images.

EDIT 3 (slow news version) : Reminder of what happened last time when a CZ-5B 1st stage re-entered :

Spoiler

 

EDIT 4 : Celestrak visualization based on latest 18-SPCS/CSpOC TLE data (which should be updated maybe in 4 hrs) :

Altitude is probably not very accurate since other trackers than 18-SPCS/CSpOC have reported perigee altitudes lower than 150 km.

Edited May 8, 2021 by YNM

[YNM]

EUSST narrowing down their prediction to 3 passes of the Earth :

Spoiler

Australia is looking likely...

Edited May 8, 2021 by YNM

[kerbiloid]

Last bets, good sirs.

[YNM]

Latest from 18-SPCS/CSpOC, narrowing it down to +- 1 hour (so 1.5 orbits) :

 

Edited May 8, 2021 by YNM

[Beccab]

9 minutes ago, YNM said:

Latest from 18-USPS/CSpOC, narrowing it down to +- 1 hour (so 1.5 orbits) :

Which trajectory is that?

[YNM]

1 hour ago, Beccab said:

Which trajectory is that?

Seems like the same as with EUSST, just that the middle of the window is off Portugal, before the EUSST prediction (which is in Australia as it's 28 mins later so roughly 1/4 or 1/3 of the world away).

EDIT : And just to spice things up, Aerospace Corp. 's prediction has their middle-of-reentry-window roughly 1 orbit after 18-SPCS/CSpOC 's middle-of-reentry-window prediction :

EDIT 2 : Said 18-SPCS/CSpOC prediction plot :

Spoiler

The three most update predictions, from the earliest mid-window to latest :

EDIT 3 :

2 hours ago, kerbiloid said:

Last bets, good sirs.

Also, from SatFlare, orbit is getting reeeally low :

Edited May 8, 2021 by YNM

[YNM]

Aerospace Corp. predictions shifting earlier :

Seems like Australia is in...

Orbit dropping fast (18-SPCS/CSpOC data) :

Spotted yesterday (Friday) over Missouri :

EDIT : SatFlare's latest prediction (screenshot as they don't update the image link) :

A hair earlier than 18-SPCS/CSpOC... might be in the Indian Ocean or Europe or Arabian Peninsula still...

EDIT 2 : Still last update from 18-SPCS/CSpOC expected :

EDIT 3 : Unexpected update from Roscosmos, locking it in the Central America - West Indies - Atlantic Ocean - Iberia - Arabia - Indian Ocean - Australia segment (times in MSK, UTC +3) :

 

Edited May 8, 2021 by YNM

[JoeSchmuckatelli]

I like this one:

 

 

...helped me explain stuff to the kids

 

[YNM]

18-SPCS/CSpOC last update :

Mid-window location is roughly in the Greek Islands (north of Kriti Island).

Arabian Peninsula or Indian Ocean then, comparing all the mid-windows.

EDIT : Graphics up.

So, comparing all the last predictions :

SatFlare :

Spoiler

18-SPCS/CSpOC :

Spoiler

Roscosmos :

Spoiler

EUSST :

Spoiler

Aerospace Corp :

Spoiler

EDIT 2 : Perigee and apogee data from 18-SPCS/CSpOC, and the re-entry windows :

EDIT 3 : Even if you aren't in the right spot...

It has passed as close as it can get to where I live. The clouds and the houses didn't help, probably a bit too far as well. Fingers crossed, go get some jackpot

 

16 hours ago, kerbiloid said:

It's the new station orbit, and new heavy rocket. Everyone have chances to win jackpot next time.

Given they're planning for 2 more station modules and 1 orbiting telescope that'll use the rocket configuration then we have 3 more times for chances to get the jackpot !

Edited May 9, 2021 by YNM

[YNM]

 

Spoiler

Earlier this morning from Japan :

 

 

EDIT : There are a lot of passes, but honestly the parts of the world it's passing over isn't on the best position I suppose.

Edited May 9, 2021 by YNM

[tater]

 

[YNM]

Will have to wait from the guys with radars and automated tracking telescopes I guess...

Retweeted by Space-Track.org's twitter account :

EDIT : Only fair to include the ones who launched the thing, even if it's pretty close to the end.

 

Edited May 9, 2021 by YNM

[sevenperforce]

China. Task failed successfully. 

[kerbiloid]

Missed.

But nobody should worry about that.

It's the new station orbit, and new heavy rocket. Everyone have chances to win jackpot next time.

Except Russia and Canada, as nobody will increase the inclination to the Baikonur latitude.

Edited May 9, 2021 by kerbiloid

[DDE]

3 hours ago, sevenperforce said:

China. Task failed successfully. 

Uncontrollably ended up in the standard region for ditching spent stages, too.

[kerbiloid]

1 hour ago, DDE said:

Uncontrollably ended up in the standard region for ditching spent stages, too.

Soon there will grow a rocket stage atoll.

Edited May 9, 2021 by kerbiloid

[YNM]

Just for recap :

China officially placed the re-entry/landing point before Maldives.

18-SPCS/CSpOC putting their re-entry position at Arabian Peninsula (+- 15 mins) :

Plot of the 18-SPCS/CSpOC prediction and the Chinese location report :

EUSST keeping their predicted mid-window but with the uncertainty +- 25 minutes (so very easily over Arabian Sea and Maldives as well) :

 

[cubinator]

2 hours ago, YNM said:

Given they're planning for 2 more station modules and 1 orbiting telescope that'll use the rocket configuration then we have 3 more times for chances to get the jackpot !

Indeed. Or, alternatively, 3 chances for them to fix their damned rocket.

[YNM]

11 minutes ago, cubinator said:

Indeed. Or, alternatively, 3 chances for them to fix their damned rocket.

Hey, you don't get light shows for free elsewhere... XD

 

Speaking for calling things out and getting it right, I guess this guy got it. If any of you is interested in finding trails or similar from various imagery services...

 

[kerbiloid]

3 hours ago, cubinator said:

Or, alternatively, 3 chances for them to fix their damned rocket.

It's not a sci-fi thread.

***

https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=&sl=ru&tl=en&u=http://russian.people.com.cn/n3/2021/0506/c31517-9846745.html

China is going to send a spacecraft to 100 AU distance (to arrive there by 2049),
but somebody more informed would better bring a more informative link.

[K^2]

6 hours ago, cubinator said:

Indeed. Or, alternatively, 3 chances for them to fix their damned rocket.

The fact that there have been no repercussions for this one is only going to make them more careless.

[JoeSchmuckatelli]

59 minutes ago, K^2 said:

The fact that there have been no repercussions for this one is only going to make them more careless.

Perhaps not.  PRC has a low tolerance for losing face. 

 

Of course, this event never happened - the stage ended up where it was supposed to go... As planned. 

Edited May 9, 2021 by JoeSchmuckatelli