[space] Is Mars-one a scam?

[Nibb31]

And if Elon Musk doesn't think Mars One is viable, all the better. It means M1 is not a competitor to his project, so there really is no reason not to sell the rockets.

He won't have any participation in it if it thinks it will fail. It would be stupid to have Falcon and Dragon associated with people dying on Mars (in the worse case) or a legal investigation for fraud (in the most optimistic case). Any negative experience would be highly counter-productive if he wants to convince people to risk their lives in his own Mars project.

Also, do we really need a new thread on this when we've already said everything that is to be said here:

http://forum.kerbalspaceprogram.com/threads/47036-space-Is-Mars-one-a-scam

Could mods merge them ?

Edited August 24, 2015 by Nibb31

[Frida Space]

I don't get how people can still believe in Mars One. I get it that at the beginning it looked cool and all, but after everything that's happened so far there is seriously not a single hint that Mars One is not a scam. They recently lost their television deal, which was basically their main revenue, and they cancelled all their contracts with Lockheed Martin, Surrey Satellite Technologies, etc... Recently, they even postponed all their mission by two years... for the second time.

[lajoswinkler]

From the first minute I've heard about Mars One, I had zero confidence in it and was mocking it. It's a ridiculous, sensationalist, stupid claim to the point of possible scam. It's as if a typical journalist of today made the mission in their head.

The whole idea is a giant mountain of human excrement. It's not even funny and I'm not sure why the hell are people debating it. It's pointless, absurd.

Edited August 24, 2015 by lajoswinkler
typo

[tater]

From the first minute I've heard about Mars One, I had zero confidence in it and was mocking it. It's a ridiculous, sensationalist, stupid claim to the point of possible scam. It's as if a typical journalist of today made the mission in their head.

The whole idea is a giant mountain of human excrement. It's not even funny and I'm not sure why the hell are people debating it. It's pointless, absurd.

Thanks for putting it so well! My reaction was the same, hence my inability to understand how anyone ever took it seriously as it is so self-evidently dumb.

[Luna-Industries]

My first thought was to take it semi seriously, though my reaction was still thinking that they hadn't a snowball's chance on Moho of pulling it off. Then I read more and found out it was a scam. Shame really, preying on people's enthusiasm for space exploration for financial gain with nothing in return...

[Mazon Del]

Has anyone ever taken Mars 1 seriously?

I did. They had a few points in their favor from my perspective.

First: They admitted they weren't intending to do the R&D themselves. The rockets would be Falcon Heavy's, the transit module would be a clone of an ISS module (the R&D for those is done, all they have to do is just order them from the companies that built them, this was their point), etc. Most of their "R&D" costs would be in any minor re-purposing adjusting and systems integration.

Second: The guy in charge of the whole thing DID have the media connections (he invented the show Big Brother) that he was saying he'd leverage to get a lot of the funding side going.

Third: As I've said before, I looked at it from a punnet square perspective. It's a scam, it's not a scam. I pay the $40, I don't. In the first crossing it is a scam and I pay $40, "Oh no! $40. I guess I won't have sushi this week as a punishment to equal out my finances.", regret over. In the second, it is not a scam and I did not pay the money. I will for the rest of my life sadly wonder if I could have been one of the people to have gone to Mars. In the third crossover, I don't pay the money but it was a scam "Hah! I beat the scam!" and my money is no different. And in the final situation where I paid and it wasn't a scam, even if I didn't get chosen (I didn't incidentally) at best I go to Mars, and at worst I know that at least I tried to go and couldn't have done any better (for that attempt).

I heavily value not regretting a failure to spend a pittance on the chance for a massively desired life situation over $40. Any regret over that money lasts at most a week. The other regret is forever.

Do I think they are going to succeed? Not anymore.

Do I regret what I did? Not at all.

[Nibb31]

First: They admitted they weren't intending to do the R&D themselves. The rockets would be Falcon Heavy's, the transit module would be a clone of an ISS module (the R&D for those is done, all they have to do is just order them from the companies that built them, this was their point), etc. Most of their "R&D" costs would be in any minor re-purposing adjusting and systems integration.

Someone still has to pay for that R&D. In the private sector, the price of the R&D is paid by the end customer. Which is why rockets aren't cheap. They couldn't even afford a single launch, without even adding the cost of the hardware.

And there is no such thing as "minor re-purposing" of space hardware. Spacecraft are not Legos.

Third: As I've said before, I looked at it from a punnet square perspective. It's a scam, it's not a scam. I pay the $40, I don't. In the first crossing it is a scam and I pay $40, "Oh no! $40. I guess I won't have sushi this week as a punishment to equal out my finances.", regret over. In the second, it is not a scam and I did not pay the money. I will for the rest of my life sadly wonder if I could have been one of the people to have gone to Mars. In the third crossover, I don't pay the money but it was a scam "Hah! I beat the scam!" and my money is no different. And in the final situation where I paid and it wasn't a scam, even if I didn't get chosen (I didn't incidentally) at best I go to Mars, and at worst I know that at least I tried to go and couldn't have done any better (for that attempt).

With that reasoning, you would go broke by sending Western Union transfers to all the Nigerian widows of rich billionnaires. That must be the most ridiculous justification of buying into a scam that I've ever seen.

[Torquemadus]

For those who haven't seen it, here is the video of the Mars One debate.

[Mazon Del]

Oh but that is a rather different situation altogether, those situations are not providing me with something I so desperately desire and believe I cannot obtain on my own. Sure, they say they'll give me vast wealth, etc. But as an egotistical inventor, I believe that it is simply a matter of time before one of my various projects tips the scales for me.

As far as the R&D comment, the point was that the vast quantity of it was already done. Sure, that ISS module would need some minor reworking to add on the solar panels to the outside and such, but generally speaking the work could be done to maximize the carryover of the modules previous "space-worthiness" certification.

As far as the "spacecraft are not Legos" comment....they kind of are. A rather substantial portion of missions and satellites done these days are "cobbled together" (of course a lot more effort than that wording implies, but considering what is usually done, still apt) out of parts from craft that never flew. Given a large enough part, all you need to necessarily custom build is a docking collar arrangement to connect them together and depending on what the items in question are, this could simply just be a matter of producing a few more of one of the current flavors that already exist.

Now of course if I had been chosen and I was looking at the aforementioned cobbled together craft and receiving training on it, if I felt that their integration of the disparate parts was putting the mission in danger then my willingness to accept such a craft will change. But at the same time, I've been part of enough multi-million dollar projects at work that end up requiring random junk from around the office soldered and hammered into position to make work that I am aware that just because a square peg was literally sledge hammered into a round hole, this doesn't actually mean the object in question is likely to fall apart.

[Nibb31]

As far as the "spacecraft are not Legos" comment....they kind of are.

Not wanting to play the Argument Clinic here, but... No they're not.

As far as the R&D comment, the point was that the vast quantity of it was already done. Sure, that ISS module would need some minor reworking to add on the solar panels to the outside and such, but generally speaking the work could be done to maximize the carryover of the modules previous "space-worthiness" certification.

There is no such thing as "minor reworking". The studies for repurposing alone would be millions. The integration with existing systems, the various interfaces to get the cobbled together systems to talk to each other. Mars One couldn't even have paid for time in a vibration or acoustic testing facility or a vacuum chamber.

When it comes to space hardware, although it might sound counter-intuitive to laymen, it's usually cheaper to custom build for a purpose than to cobble together parts that are laying around.

[monstah]

Do I think they are going to succeed? Not anymore.

Do I regret what I did? Not at all.

I don't have too much to add to this discussion, but I'd like to point out that, as above, I also believed in them, and am not ashamed of that.

Besides, I'm still not convinced it was a scam. Pipe dream, probably; infeasible, most likely; but 'scam' implies deliberate lying for personal profit. Say what you want, I don't believe Bas had such intentions.

[Albert VDS]

So I have seen this article, and I'm amazed. Paragon themselves admits that Mars One can't do it and yet Bus Landthrope over there still says that they can.

Look at this claim:

http://static2.techinsider.io/image/55d3e9cb2acae76e098bff1b-960-697/screen%20shot%202015-08-18%20at%2010.25.17%20pm.png

There is no way that they can launch that many Falcon Heavies for $6 billion, when just the cost of launching the Falcons is 10.26 billion dollars.

Add the Dragons and it's more like 25 billion.

Mars One is ridiculous...

That $6 billion part isn't the total cost of Mars One, it's totally taken out of context of this page.

After discussions with potential suppliers for each component and close examination, Mars One estimates the cost of putting the first four people on Mars at six billion US$. The six billion figure is the cost of all the hardware combined, plus the operational expenditures, plus margins. For every next manned mission, Mars One estimates the costs at four billion US$.

That's for a base for 4 people, the total cost would be $38 billion instead of the $6 billion that the infograph states.

The problem with this idea is not that it's not feasible from a technical standpoint.

It's not feasible because people would rather watch the #'s season of "the Voice" or "<country name> Idol" and of course to them space travel is a waste of money.

But not the shows where the #th super star is born, because those show really help humanity...

Edited August 24, 2015 by Albert VDS

[FishInferno]

So SpaceX isn't going to help Mars One, leaving them with no other options for suitable launch vehicles that won't cost a bajillion dollars.

They won't supply the habs or transit craft, but they would still provide launches if M1 could scrape up the funds.

[Shpaget]

He won't have any participation in it if it thinks it will fail.

Elon Musk is a businessman first. I don't see a reason not to sell the rockets as he is not responsible for what happens after they reach orbit.

It would be stupid to have Falcon and Dragon associated with people dying on Mars (in the worse case)

Those people will die on Mars, no question about it. If they die because Mars One didn't provide them with enough food, it's not Elon Musk's fault. There would be no fallout for SpaceX, everybody would blame the M1, just like no one blames McDonnell Douglas and their Delta II for the failure of Mars Climate Orbiter.

or a legal investigation for fraud (in the most optimistic case).

What fraud? That makes no sense. Do automobile companies face investigation for fraud after a person uses a car to drive to place he then robs at gunpoint?

Any negative experience would be highly counter-productive if he wants to convince people to risk their lives in his own Mars project.

People die and get forgotten. Remember Challenger accident? The shuttle was grounded for a few years and then everybody moved on.

[FishInferno]

It would be stupid to have Falcon and Dragon associated with people dying on Mars

not to be rude, but have you even SEEN SpaceX's plan for Mars? Colonization= people die there eventually. It won't be because of no food or a disaster or no more air, people just die eventually

[tater]

What is Mars-One's revenue stream for continuing to supply these people in perpetuity, with zero return on investment, exactly? What happens if they can't buy several Falcon Heavy launches every 26 months any more?

Is the revenue ads from people watching them on TV go slowly crazy, alone on Mars?

- - - Updated - - -

Those people will die on Mars, no question about it. If they die because Mars One didn't provide them with enough food, it's not Elon Musk's fault. There would be no fallout for SpaceX, everybody would blame the M1, just like no one blames McDonnell Douglas and their Delta II for the failure of Mars Climate Orbiter.

Obviously, the people die. But with youtube videos on the net of Mars "colonists" begging Elon for some "free" launches so they don't die with the internet watching, the press for SpaceX would be not so great. People are not terribly smart in general, they will "feel" he should do it.

Edited August 24, 2015 by tater

[Shpaget]

Which can happen in any case, whether SpaceX launches the stuff or not, with one difference being that if SpaceX sells the rockets, the cost of the free ones would be partially offset by the revenue from the ones that were sold earlier.

[vger]

not to be rude, but have you even SEEN SpaceX's plan for Mars? Colonization= people die there eventually. It won't be because of no food or a disaster or no more air, people just die eventually

Also, taking into account the total history of exploration, our time in space has yielded an INSANELY good track record for keeping people alive. It's so good that the Grim Reaper would probably accuse us of cheating.

A staggering number of human settlements in previously unexplored locations, simply died off from disease, famine, etc. And that was all on a planet where we could breathe.

Edited August 24, 2015 by vger

[hugix]

People already said a lot about Mars one in this thread (I started ) http://forum.kerbalspaceprogram.com/threads/47036-space-Is-Mars-one-a-scam

[Scotius]

Pigs will start flying before MarsOne gets off the ground.

[Godot]

...

Obviously, the people die. But with youtube videos on the net of Mars "colonists" begging Elon for some "free" launches so they don't die with the internet watching, the press for SpaceX would be not so great. People are not terribly smart in general, they will "feel" he should do it.

Unlikely to happen IMHO ...

signals that arrive from Mars are so faint and noisy that you need the huge radio dishes of the deep space network to receive them in any form that is usable ..

and afterwards they will have to run through some algorithms in order to separate signal and noise.

This is not something that can easily be done by any radio amateur.

Therefore I´d guess that Mars One will have the monopoly on messages frfom the mars colony

and will have every opportunity to edit/filter anything from the Mars Colony, before it gets into public domain.

And I am sure that pics/messages of dying/begging mars colony members will surely be among those that will be edited out

[peadar1987]

Pigs will start flying before MarsOne gets off the ground.

Elon Musk discusses the viability of the Mars One Project:

[Mitchz95]

Obviously, the people die. But with youtube videos on the net of Mars "colonists" begging Elon for some "free" launches so they don't die with the internet watching, the press for SpaceX would be not so great. People are not terribly smart in general, they will "feel" he should do it.

SpaceX's colony will have return ships available every two years. People will be able to evacuate if necessary.

[Vanamonde]

Overlapping threads have been merged to keep the discussion from getting scattered around the forum.

[tater]

SpaceX's colony will have return ships available every two years. People will be able to evacuate if necessary.

I'm not talking about spacex, I'm talking about Mars One. M1 plans to buy falcon launches. When they run out of money (under the insane assumption they ever actually have any in the first place), the likely very public colonists will have to convince someone to resupply them or die. The obvious choice would be to beg Musk to throw some launches their way and bail them out.