Weather Chat Megathread

[RoadRunnerAerospace]

looks like the delta pilots will actually truthfully reporting some "light chop" now

[ProtoJeb21]

1 hour ago, SaturnianBlue said:

@ProtoJeb21 I wouldn't say Irma is annular—though its eye is quite large, it is nothing close to that of Isabel, for example. There's also a lot of outflow, and Wilma was kind of the opposite of annular—it had the smallest eye for a hurricane ever. I don't think it'll reach it's previous strength, but a category 5 is quite possible. 

Jose could prove to be a second hit for the Leewards, and it doesn't help that Irma damaged a lot of structures still standing

Surprising that Katia hasn't become a major—it intensified much slower than I would've expected, and it's got 6 hours to go till landfall. 

Even without Jose becoming a Cat 5, or Katia becoming a major, the Atlantic has produced more ACE today than any other day on record.  We're already at the average ACE for a season, and we've had three category 4+ storms in a row (1st time), and three category 2+ storms at once (2nd time). Lastly, we've had two storms at 150 mph winds at once, which has never been recorded. The 2017 hurricane season is doing things that even the 2005 season never did.

Yeah, Irma is not nearly as annular as Isabel, although it looks a lot like Isabel and Wilma had a really fat baby.

Jose is either going to be a second devastation or the Storm that Cried Armageddon.

I also find it odd that Katia has yet to strengthen a whole lot, considering how favorable of an environment it's in. It's possible it has strengthened, but we'll have to wait for the Hurricane Hunters results.

The amount of records being smashed in just a few days is ridiculous. I would assume some of them would've already been held by 2005 and be unable to beat. However, it looks like this year will be all about smashing records and any smash-able coastal area possible. I mean, the season isn't even halfway over and it's already at 91 ACE! And Irma is responsible for, like, half of that. 

 

If it makes anyone feel better, North America won't be the only area suffering from tropical devastation. Taiwan is likely to be hit by Tropical Depression 20W, which appears likely to become a very strong Category 4 or even a Category 5 by landfall in ~5 days. It may be another Meranti (which is one of only two storms stronger than Irma at landfall).

[SaturnianBlue]

6 minutes ago, ProtoJeb21 said:

Yeah, Irma is not nearly as annular as Isabel, although it looks a lot like Isabel and Wilma had a really fat baby.

Jose is either going to be a second devastation or the Storm that Cried Armageddon.

I also find it odd that Katia has yet to strengthen a whole lot, considering how favorable of an environment it's in. It's possible it has strengthened, but we'll have to wait for the Hurricane Hunters results.

The amount of records being smashed in just a few days is ridiculous. I would assume some of them would've already been held by 2005 and be unable to beat. However, it looks like this year will be all about smashing records and any smash-able coastal area possible. I mean, the season isn't even halfway over and it's already at 91 ACE! And Irma is responsible for, like, half of that. 

 

If it makes anyone feel better, North America won't be the only area suffering from tropical devastation. Taiwan is likely to be hit by Tropical Depression 20W, which appears likely to become a very strong Category 4 or even a Category 5 by landfall in ~5 days. It may be another Meranti (which is one of only two storms stronger than Irma at landfall).

Looking at the GOES imagery, it looks like Katia just collapsed—the eye isn't visible anymore. 

Irma's getting close to Cuba, which may be of help for weakening the storm.

Edited September 8, 2017 by SaturnianBlue

[Mrcarrot]

It's times like this that I'm glad I live in Southwest Minnesota, where the worst storm we can expect is an F-5 tornado- and even an F-1 is very rare. Last time there was a tornado in my area, it was 2011 and I was away. That one was F-3. I do feel sorry for those of you who live in an area where Irma will hit or Harvey did hit, though. On a more positive note, we have not been having bad weather here. Just the normal, 55-65 Fahrenheit weather in early September.

[Maelstrom Vortex]

2 hours ago, ProtoJeb21 said:

I think Irma may be rapidly intensifying into a sub-910 mbar storm. With its Eyewall Replacement Cycle completing, Irma has become a very well-defined, annular tropical cyclone with a shrinking but deep eye. This is reminding me too much of Hurricane Wilma, and how it looked similar to this when rapidly intensifying into an 882 mbar hurricane. Right now there are two Hurricane Hunters recon flights out in the storm, so we won't have to wait long for an answer. In the meantime, the updated NHC track shows Irma re-attaining Category 5 intensity just south of the Florida Keys on September 10th.

Jose also has some impressive satellite imagery. It has a huge, clear eye and a ring of tall and powerful thunderstorms around the eyewall. I wouldn't be shocked if it becomes a Category 5.

 

Such photogenic monstrosities.

[Just Jim]

18 minutes ago, Maelstrom Vortex said:

Such photogenic monstrosities.

I can see my house from here!  

[ProtoJeb21]

RECON UPDATE: The first Irma flight is leaving the storm, after spending a few hours in there. On its final pass around the eye it recorded winds between 145 and 165 knots (167 to 190 mph), indicating that it may be a Category 5 again. The second flight has only just entered the cyclone. Meanwhile, the recon flight to Jose found that pressures have dropped to around 936 mbar near the Eyewall - but it isn't even in the center of the storm yet. There is also evidence of winds close to or at Category 5 intensity.

@SaturnianBlue Katia is most likely done for. However, I seriously doubt that Cuba can do much to stop Irma. Its center is still over some of the warmest waters on the entire planet with very low wind shear and abundant moisture. A perfect place for regaining Category 5 intensity.

Edited September 9, 2017 by ProtoJeb21

[LordFerret]

My friend, who left Vero Beach early this morning, has still not reached her destination (western South Carolina). I received a message from her, stating that she's hit traffic (St. Augustine area) and, as @Just Jim noted, gas and 'supplies' shortages are a thing. I did try to warn her.

 

@ProtoJeb21, I like the data and images you've been posting, but your speculations are starting to sound like the endless rant of 'talking heads' on tv. Sorry.

 

@Maelstrom Vortex There was a guy named David Nabhan who claimed (still claims) to have an accurate earthquake prediction model. You might find his work interesting.

 

lol... her ears must have been ringing.

Just after I submitted my previous post, my friend texted me. She's got 199 more miles to go. Says, because of the traffic, the crawl through Georgia was 3 mph, and now over the border into South Carolina it's 3 to 5 mph.

[ProtoJeb21]

20 minutes ago, LordFerret said:

@ProtoJeb21, I like the data and images you've been posting, but your speculations are starting to sound like the endless rant of 'talking heads' on tv. Sorry.

I have no idea what those talking heads are, and I don't want to know because it's probably horrifying. But I have been right about many predictions over the last week. I have been going absolutely crazy with Ventusky and Tropical Tidbits, as this is the first time I've had any advanced modeling when tracking tropical cyclones. As a result I can't stop posting any interesting or concerning updates regarding these storms. 

[Maelstrom Vortex]

33 minutes ago, LordFerret said:

My friend, who left Vero Beach early this morning, has still not reached her destination (western South Carolina). I received a message from her, stating that she's hit traffic (St. Augustine area) and, as @Just Jim noted, gas and 'supplies' shortages are a thing. I did try to warn her.

 

@ProtoJeb21, I like the data and images you've been posting, but your speculations are starting to sound like the endless rant of 'talking heads' on tv. Sorry.

 

@Maelstrom Vortex There was a guy named David Nabhan who claimed (still claims) to have an accurate earthquake prediction model. You might find his work interesting.

 

lol... her ears must have been ringing.

Just after I submitted my previous post, my friend texted me. She's got 199 more miles to go. Says, because of the traffic, the crawl through Georgia was 3 mph, and now over the border into South Carolina it's 3 to 5 mph.

Possibly. The types of quakes mine would "predict" would be rare at best, (X class flares and cmes aren't your every day occurrence) and the worst part is it can't tell you where in the world it would hit, just that a large scale geologic event is imminent.

Edited September 9, 2017 by Maelstrom Vortex

[LordFerret]

38 minutes ago, ProtoJeb21 said:

I have no idea what those talking heads are, and I don't want to know because it's probably horrifying. But I have been right about many predictions over the last week. I have been going absolutely crazy with Ventusky and Tropical Tidbits, as this is the first time I've had any advanced modeling when tracking tropical cyclones. As a result I can't stop posting any interesting or concerning updates regarding these storms. 

Don't get me wrong, I'm not trying to diminish your efforts and reporting. Maybe it's your excitement I'm picking up on and interpreting as a sort of 'sensationalizing'... which is what those 'talking heads' on TV news do. TV news reporters tend to sensationalize, especially ramping-up and expounding anything that's negative... like; what might, what could, etc.

Don't mind me, daghlili da pircushi.

[Cabbink]

1 hour ago, LordFerret said:

 

 

@ProtoJeb21, I like the data and images you've been posting, but your speculations are starting to sound like the endless rant of 'talking heads' on tv. Sorry. .

Wait...

Talking heads..

Do I..

A. Need to be on their song contest tv show?

B. Have the possibility to be DISQUALLIFED because "BOO. NOT COOL."

C. Have the possibility to SHOW THEM WHAT I GOT?

I hope someone got that. 

[tater]

The only plus to this track is if it stays west and doesn't direct-hit Miami, and this is really only from an economic standpoint. The west coast hit means increased surge (Naples and Ft Myers are gonna get clobbered), and the storm is wide enough that Miami could still be hammered badly. The other plus is that KSC is far safer with this track (sorry, but this forum attracts people with a certain bias, and I'm one of them). All things equal, and with people evacuating and sheltering appropriately, if property is to be damaged, I'd rather have KSC safer than not.

[SaturnianBlue]

Hurricane Irma is back up to category 5 status, despite scraping along the Cuban coast. This seems like a Donna 2.0 scenario, with the hurricane traveling along the Florida west coast and the keys. In my un-official, totally instinct-based opinion, Irma will landfall as a category 4 like Charley, but much bigger, leading to hurricane force winds across much of the peninsula. I'm under the impression that the GFS model is unreliable.

Hurricane Jose is the strongest a category 4 can be, and while an OTS (out-to-sea) scenario is likely, it won't be before the leewards take yet another beating. 

Hurricane Katia has been heavily weakened, but it nonetheless poses a threat to Mexico.

Edited September 9, 2017 by SaturnianBlue

[cubinator]

My god, it's full of stars!

A beautifully clear night here, I'm hoping the aurora will spread down to where I can see them.

[ProtoJeb21]

Something tells me that Irma is actually TRYING to break as many records as possible. Last night it made landfall in northern Cuba as a Category 5, which only adds to the huge list of areas it has hit at that intensity. In fact, Irma has made the most landfalls as a Category 5 than any other storm in recorded history. 

The GFS models still say that it has a pretty decent chance of strengthening back into a Category 5 before a Florida landfall.

[XLjedi]

Irma track looks to be settling in on the Florida west coast.  Good news for me, bad for  @JustJim

[tater]

Supposedly it's shearing quite a bit, and some of the discussions I have read shows it as not restrengthening as much as people worried about.

How is landfall windspeed measured, exactly? It has to be sustained winds at the rated windspeed, not just gusts, right? What about altitude? Then simultaneous with the eyeball making contact with land?

I think a cat 3 is not that big a deal for Floridians, so the sooner it slows down, the better. I say this because since Andrew don't many houses now have shutters, etc, due to code changes?

[LordFerret]

My friend finally arrived at her destination; I got the call at 4am this morning. She said the traffic was unreal, and trying to pull into a rest stop or off an exit was unbelievable - so many people all milling around looking for the same things, of which little to none were available.

[Green Baron]

17 minutes ago, tater said:

How is landfall windspeed measured, exactly? It has to be sustained winds at the rated windspeed, not just gusts, right? What about altitude? Then simultaneous with the eyeball making contact with land?

 

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/crn/measurements.html

Model calculations are usually for a height of 10m above ground. That would be a huge difference though as speed and direction even over a flat surface can be considerable between 1.5 and 10m.

[tater]

1 minute ago, Green Baron said:

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/crn/measurements.html

Model calculations are usually for a height of 10m above ground. That would be a huge difference though as speed and direction even over a flat surface can be considerable between 1.5 and 10m.

That link says the anemometer is 1.5m above ground. Model calculations are not observations, however. I would assume that they must measure a constant wind at 1.5m for any such reading to be official. What happens when an instrument is fine and accurate up to some velocity, but any higher gust wrecks it? Gusts don't count, sustained winds do. The storm could be at one level, and a higher gust destroys instrument.

Clearly tree height is a critical height, given that trees cause a lot of damage, and roughly scale to small building heights (high-rises are built to better standards, usually).

 

My wife has a meeting next month in Naples, at a hotel right on the water. Unsure if it gets moved/cancelled or not. Anyway, that got me looking at the sat images... 

What is with the housing market in FL? There are neighborhoods under a km from the ocean, and there is a network of roads, and an equal network of canals---because every house needs water access, right? This in a hurricane zone. I certainly hope the insurance is set up in such a way that the taxpayers are not responsible for people's housing choice to make sure the structure is as likely as possible to flood.

[Green Baron]

5 minutes ago, tater said:

I would assume that they must measure a constant wind at 1.5m for any such reading to be official.

Just read the link :-)

[Just Jim]

11 minutes ago, tater said:

What is with the housing market in FL? 

It's insane actually. And constantly growing. The area I'm in is constantly expanding, and I know of several major building projects in the works.

11 minutes ago, tater said:

There are neighborhoods under a km from the ocean, and there is a network of roads, and an equal network of canals---because every house needs water access, right?

Our whole town (Port Richey) is right on the Gulf coast. All houses west of US19 have been evacuated. And my house... is maybe 2-3 km from the water... as the seagulls fly.

Edited September 9, 2017 by Just Jim

[tater]

Wow. I didn't realize you were on the West coast, I thought you were central. A neighbor's kid is at Admiral Farragut Academy (got an unsolicited near full ride sports scholarship)... just sent a text to see if they got evacuated.

I read the link, but previous stuff I read said that wind speed was measured as a 2 minute constant speed (sustained without dipping below whatever). Perhaps it has changed over time.

[ProtoJeb21]

1 hour ago, tater said:

Supposedly it's shearing quite a bit, and some of the discussions I have read shows it as not restrengthening as much as people worried about.

Cuba definitely is taking a toll on Irma's convective structure, but both the NHC and GFS models predict Irma returning to strong Category 4 (MAYBE Cat 5) intensity by later today and Sunday.

Meanwhile, Jose may become a Category 5 around Bermuda in a few days. Some models suggest the possibility of a New England landfall at Category 4 or 3 intensity. Oh no...