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SpaceX Discussion Thread


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6 hours ago, CBase said:

Since it got a little bit lost into some discussions: SpaceX targets today another attempt !

A little surprising as I thought the TFR was cancelled.

It was reinstated, but was lost in this thread as well

6 hours ago, CBase said:

 

 

Edited by Cuky
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17 hours ago, tater said:

True again—but there is literally no path to SpaceX making a gazillion dollars as a launch service company. They have already secured most of the commercial launch market, and much of the US government market. While they only got 40% of Space Force vs ULA's 60%, they likely get some of ULA's flights as Vulcan is not gonna be there at the expected time, and even then—it's a finite pie, and not likely to grow terribly much.

What's the counterfactual goal of SpaceX if not colonizing Mars?

Earning slightly more Space Force and NASA money than they do so that they can eventually make as much as Tesla does in a month or two?

Global satellite internet is gazillion dollar market. All Musk's decisions so far are very consistent with that objective.  All rocket development will pay itself easily if it can transport few tens of thousands of satellites on LEO and maintain the fleet. Selling launches for others is a nice bonus but not necessary.  Reliable, cheap high capacity launch vehicle is of course necessary for colonizing space too and they can say it is an ultimate objective but so far Musk has not used his money to develop anything specific to long duration manned operations. I am certain that he thinks money first. If not, he could never have achieved a position in which developing rockets is more than a vague fantasy.

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1 minute ago, Hannu2 said:

Global satellite internet is gazillion dollar market. All Musk's decisions so far are very consistent with that objective.  All rocket development will pay itself easily if it can transport few tens of thousands of satellites on LEO and maintain the fleet. Selling launches for others is a nice bonus but not necessary.  Reliable, cheap high capacity launch vehicle is of course necessary for colonizing space too and they can say it is an ultimate objective but so far Musk has not used his money to develop anything specific to long duration manned operations. I am certain that he thinks money first. If not, he could never have achieved a position in which developing rockets is more than a vague fantasy.

It's possibly a large market, unknown. Also, Starlink likely goes public and is split off.

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OK, this can't be the A-team for SpaceX, right?

"It's called the Superheavy, and the name says it all. It's super. It's heavy."

"The engines use staged combustion, which means it combusts the fuel in stages."

Edited by mikegarrison
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Just now, Spaceception said:

I'm taking an aloof approach to this stream. I followed it pretty closely on Monday, so I'm going to do other things until the countdown is close. That's scientific, right?

I usually do not follow launches directly. Especially if something interesting is going on. There is so small possibility that launch actually happens at intended time.  Now I have good position and time so I can follow it, if it is not delayed. So, I know my luck and it is maybe 10 % probability to proceed to liftoff. Sorry Musk and all enthusiasts over the world, but if you give a couple of millions for not watch direct stream, I will close it.

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INSPRUCKER

4 minutes ago, mikegarrison said:

OK, this can't be the A-team for SpaceX, right?

"It's called the Superheavy, and the name says it all. It's super. It's heavy."

"The engines use staged combustion, which means it combusts the fuel in stages."

They've gotta assume this is getting a bunch of viewers who are much less familiar with rocket science.

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3 minutes ago, mikegarrison said:

OK, this can't be the A-team for SpaceX, right?

"It's called the Superheavy, and the name says it all. It's super. It's heavy."

"The engines use staged combustion, which means it combusts the fuel in stages."

Maybe they're expecting a bunch of new people. Don't they repeat themselves a lot how the F9 works in those streams? With this launch getting so much more coverage than normal, a lot of people not familiar with spaceflight are probably tuning in on top of the enthusiasts.

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4 minutes ago, tater said:

It's possibly a large market, unknown. Also, Starlink likely goes public and is split off.

There is no certain large markets without established competition. Can't Musk keep most of shares even if company is splitted off? If he can, they will produce huge profits even there is other owners.

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Just now, Hannu2 said:

There is no certain large markets without established competition. Can't Musk keep most of shares even if company is splitted off? If he can, they will produce huge profits even there is other owners.

Regardless, SS has more capacity than Starlink needs—if it was just about Starlink, they could put wings on it.

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7 minutes ago, sevenperforce said:

They've gotta assume this is getting a bunch of viewers who are much less familiar with rocket science.

But really, "Superheavy is super and heavy"? Is that particularly helpful or interesting to viewers who are much less familiar with rocket science?

Some of the stuff they have said is fine, but when I first tuned in they were just kind of babbling.

Edited by mikegarrison
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Just now, RCgothic said:

Wow this is tense

They're getting very close.

Closing out prop load on the header tanks.

Starship main tanks already closed out and pressed.

Still loading Superheavy.

That up-close shot showing the booster vibrations at the frost line...wow. This thing is a beast.

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Wow I remember watching Falcon Heavy in this very thread 5 years ago, and now I'm actually studying aerospace engineering.  Glad to see so many of the same people here!

 

Prop loading complete!

Edited by DAL59
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