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Everything posted by SunlitZelkova
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totm dec 2023 Artemis Discussion Thread
SunlitZelkova replied to Nightside's topic in Science & Spaceflight
It would loosely resemble this. I have no idea if it would be feasible to modify Starship to do that or not. Worst case scenario you could build a lander that looks like this and stick it on top, and use Starship as a space tug instead. -
As much as this post disparages the idea of a Mars colony, I think one will come about one day. It will just be centuries from now, after violence and the “anything worth doing must be profitable” and “anything worth doing must benefit me personally or I won’t do it” mentalities have gone the way of slavery and cannibalism. I think these concepts of “colonies as resorts” are very poor and flawed, because that means that if the resort ceases to be profitable, everyone will pack up and leave. There were entire towns here along the Oregon coast that were prosperous as resorts in the late 1800s, but once the demand declined they couldn’t be maintained anymore. Today there is not a single trace of them remaining. To expand beyond a place where we don’t have to worry about securing the existence of the entire food supply or having breathable atmosphere will require a revolution in human thinking. Trying to do things by the current “needs to be profitable to be worthwhile” mentality just points in the direction of space colonization being not feasible at all.
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I don’t know if you have kids that have disabilities in school or not, but that was not my experience in the early 2010s. In middle school, Special Ed was more focused on simply helping kids learn at that time. It was similar in high school. There was never any emphasis on whether that sort of thing could be applied to careers or not because K-12 has little to do with careers anyways. It’s all about the diploma. We were expected to take the learning strategies we received into college, so there was some sort of preparation for when the support would fade. These labels weren’t created for the heck of it. The kids actually have a disability and the logic goes is that the only reason we would realize they would have it is if they show trouble in school and it gets noticed that way. I don’t know what you experienced, but no one is forced into special ed. I simply got a 504 plan and then an IEP, but only during the worse (my condition was worse) later years did I attend special ed classes, and only after the two plans didn’t work. In the 2010s at least, the only people in special ed were those who really needed to be. There’s also an effort to promote tolerance and acceptance of people with disabilities. They aren’t just separated away from the normal kids, who then are left to their own devices to form opinions about the special ed people. Whether it’s working or not IDK. I personally never experienced any prejudice over it. There were classmates of mine with disabilities far more severe than mine, and perhaps they suffered prejudice, but I was not friends with them and kept to myself so I don’t know. I also have no idea what their futures will turn out to be. Their disabilities were so severe, that I feel that if their condition was not to improve, they were the kind of people who would require a caretaker or placement into a facility for the rest of their lives. I couldn’t see them managing a job even if they had heavy supports.
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Shuttle derived is more about using existing components for political reasons (keeping contractors in key states busy) than actual performance reasons, IMO.
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totm dec 2023 Artemis Discussion Thread
SunlitZelkova replied to Nightside's topic in Science & Spaceflight
It’s a problem but they’re working on it. For those not in the know it’s a good introductory article. I don’t know how many people are silent readers in this thread. If there’s anyone visiting for the first time it will be good for them, but a number of us who have been following this stuff for years as it comes along are already aware of the challenges. Note that that article never suggests replacing Starship. It just talks about the challenges and questions the feasibility of a 2026 landing. It doesn’t question feasibility of any landing. -
My mom sent me an article about Armani Williams, the first autistic NASCAR driver. It’s a very cool read for someone like me with my own mental disability. Something catches my eye below the Facebook post with the link. Facebook calls it “the most relevant comment.” It says “most relevant is selected, some comments may have been filtered out.” It is written by a bigot, who believes autism and ADHD are “educational and parental cop-outs.” He tells people to “educate their stupid kids” because “the world isn’t going to tiptoe around them just because they have some weird habits.” And then there is another “most relevant comment.” It’s a racist bit by the same guy. Armani is one of the few black NASCAR drivers. Odd timing, because I have been trying to combat my depression by doing an “informational detox” and reducing the number of my world building projects I work on as hobbies, and decreasing my use of social media, among other things. One thing I was debating at the time was whether the internet should have existed or not. The sole project I’m now working on is an alternate history where the USSR lands on the Moon first. I’m pretty convinced the world would be better off without the internet. So long as big companies like Meta and Twitter use algorithms that amplify the bad people speaking out on it, and together with the need for “buzz” to get advertising revenue, sane and moderate discourse is passed over in favor of extremes on either side of the argument that enrage people and gain more clicks, the internet will have proven to be more negative than positive. For me, of course. Others are entitled to their opinions. Luckily the internet is pretty easy to erase from my timeline. Because the Space Race continues, it will be pretty easy to cut funding for it sometime in the mid 70s and prevent it from becoming a major thing. P.S. I feel a lot of the strife in my life and those of my generation would be prevented if there was no internet. I feel I made the right decision as a kid beginning middle school to forgo video games and cell phones, even as people around me played Minecraft and posted on Instagram. Once I started to use them after moving away to another city, in order to try and communicate with them, my depression increased and I became very volatile. I feel that the record breaking mental health crisis among youth would be greatly lessened if not eliminated if the internet did not exist. My cousin has three kids. One is just a baby but the other two are just starting schooling. They’re already addicted to games and streaming children’s shows that my cousin shows them on her phone. I look at them and just think this world is doomed.
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totm dec 2023 Artemis Discussion Thread
SunlitZelkova replied to Nightside's topic in Science & Spaceflight
I’d be skeptical these can be called delays when Artemis has never had a realistic timeline to begin with. When it began, the first landing was scheduled for 2024- a purely political date. Instead of reassessing a choosing a realistic goal, they have only been moving milestones back by a year at a time as new issues in development come to light. Meanwhile, SLS has been delayed for years, as tater described. According to the original plan, EM-1 (Artemis I) would be in 2016, and then EM-2 (Artemis II) would be in 2018. I think a landing in 2025 or 2026 would have been achievable if Artemis had kicked off in 2017 or so. At that time NASA was still planning for the silly ARM mission. Apollo the Moon landing program began in 1961 and landed in 1969. Roughly 8 years. Artemis began in 2019, so a better date would be 2027 or 2028 (the latter of which is Ars Technica’s predicted date). -
totm dec 2023 Artemis Discussion Thread
SunlitZelkova replied to Nightside's topic in Science & Spaceflight
Incorrect, IMO. SLS is the primary source of delays. Artemis I was originally scheduled for November 2021 but was pushed back by a year due to delays. We might have been closer to Artemis II if it weren't for the delays between the rocket's inception circa 2011 and the completion of the first vehicle in 2021. I would bet $1000, that yes they were. It's well known NASA and SpaceX have had good communication with each other on HLS development progress. There is no evidence they did this, but if they did, then I believe SpaceX would inform NASA. -
totm dec 2023 Artemis Discussion Thread
SunlitZelkova replied to Nightside's topic in Science & Spaceflight
I like this proposal. My understanding of it is that SLS missions to the Moon would then wait for EUS. Perhaps they got some radiation readings they didn’t like during the multiple passes through the Van Allen belts with ICPS. Does Artemis II still use that profile? Or is it more direct because it’s just a flyby? Edit for clarity- waiting for EUS gives them time to realize SLS is unworkable and cancel it and then just use Dragon as a LEO taxi. Better than producing more ICPS and more cores that then need to be used to avoid wasting money, prolonging SLS’ service life. -
What if we’re the ones in a fish tank, and fish control us? An inverse fish tank, to be exact. They exist in a fifth dimension above our 4D world, and are the masterminds behind everything in history and the designers of the laws of physics.
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For Questions That Don't Merit Their Own Thread
SunlitZelkova replied to Skyler4856's topic in Science & Spaceflight
Let’s say there is a limited nuclear war. Military sites and major cities are hit by ICBMs, but bombers are called off mid-flight and only a few SLBMs are launched before a ceasefire is agreed upon. High tech factories were destroyed in the cities they were in, but rural fossil fuel industries remain intact. What is the best option for restoring power to the country during recovery? I was thinking about this in the shower and wondering if survivors of a nuclear war would ever be able to have hot showers again. Would coal be the most viable route for a quick recovery? I’ve heard China has mastered building them pretty quickly. Or would renewables like solar and wind make sense, if countries that have industries for producing such infrastructure escape the war unscathed? -
Color me skeptical that jet engine maintenance can be translated to rocket engines. The stresses out on them in flight and the temperatures they operate at are completely different. What is your basis for suggesting this? I am also skeptical of this. Current Raptors that fly are not intended for reuse right now, so there would be no reason to run them at lower power.
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totm dec 2023 Artemis Discussion Thread
SunlitZelkova replied to Nightside's topic in Science & Spaceflight
I had a thought. I don’t think we will ever see the government built Artemis Base Camp habitat. Instead, after 3-4 missions, SLS will retired, because in a few years the holders of the purse will come around and see SLS as an interim system like how Shuttle was never meant as a permanent means of launching astronauts to the ISS. Artemis Base Camp will instead be outsourced to someone like Axiom or Gravitics, perhaps even i-Space (the Japanese company that wants to colonize the Moon), similar to how the ISS replacement will be an all commercial station. Artemis will become a completely privately run program, apart from NASA sending astronauts and funding experiments and research. By then (circa 2033) focus will then shift to funding technology and experiments for a crewed Mars mission, as international tensions will have heated up with China and there will be a perceived threat of them landing first. I don’t expect Starship to fly to Mars for a long time, at least not until a few Artemis missions are flown, because SpaceX will want data of how Starship behaves when landing on the Moon before trying to land on Mars. Data from landing on concrete pads on Earth or getting caught by chopsticks won’t contribute to the problem of landing on Mars without infrastructure, and landing on the Moon allows more tests to be carried out instead of waiting for every transfer window to launch to Mars. Also by this time, I would expect the 7 seat version of Crew Dragon to fly, for the transport to the ISS replacement station and LEO taxi to the waiting Starship HLS which will take more astronauts to the Moon than the initial Orion missions. -
From a certain Pixar movie everyone loves. I did this on mobile, I hope it isn’t too big.
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https://x.com/dsshhh114/status/1778708684044165449?s=46&t=Jd73T2beq0JLNtwTy1uR5A The new lunar communications relay sat, Queqiao-2, is in lunar orbit. Chang’e 6 will launch on May 3rd. It will attempt to bring back samples from the South Pole. It’s a shame there can’t be more cooperation. NASA would surely benefit from having access to some samples ahead of VIPER’s launch. Meanwhile, Shenzhou 18 will launch soon too, on April 25th- just a day after China’s space day. https://x.com/dsshhh114/status/1779861392167928280?s=46&t=Jd73T2beq0JLNtwTy1uR5A Curiously, while the crew “has been selected,” the names have not been announced. https://x.com/raz_liu/status/1775426422469013897?s=46&t=Jd73T2beq0JLNtwTy1uR5A And finally, the first flight of one of the various Chinese F9 “visual clones” inches closer. While ZQ-3 may look like F9, it is made of stainless steel and uses methalox.
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Bad science in fiction Hall of Shame
SunlitZelkova replied to peadar1987's topic in Science & Spaceflight
Depends on your definition of using aircraft. Japanese scout planes dropped flares over Allied cruisers at night time during one of the Guadalcanal battles, and then the surface ships attacked. Counterpoint to that: during one of the Guadalcanal battles, Japanese and Allied ships got so close they were able to use their AA mounts against each other as well as the main guns. It was brutal, but neither side suffered total devastation of the lighter mounts. -
totm may 2024 Mars Sample Return discussion thread
SunlitZelkova replied to Minmus Taster's topic in Science & Spaceflight
True. Although I remember reading somewhere NASA currently has a requirement that MSR must happen before sending a crewed mission. On the other hand… The 1969 proposal had the Mars spacecraft having small probes attached that could take samples and bring them up to the ship to confirm whether there was life or not before landing. Meanwhile DRM 5.0, using Constellation equipment, assumed no MSR and thus took into account landing at somewhere akin to Jezero in order to have a good chance of finding life. ——— My 2 cents- I’m a bit of a two face when it comes to this. On the one hand, I think robotic MSR is necessary to have pristine samples and thus not risk contaminating the area, which astronauts might do. On the other hand, much like how the Soviet Luna sample return missions obviated the need for a Soviet crewed lunar landing and helped kill that program, MSR might have people asking questions about why we need to go to Mars. In which case I’d rather see a crewed mission and no MSR. Simply because landing people is cooler, not with any care for rather we have a responsibility to try and find life or not. -
The idea of humanity reaching out into space and colonizing stars, living forever beyond the death of the sun, is a fantasy. It is the religious concept of humanity ascending into (the) heaven(s) and individuals having eternal life, a fantasy found in many humans, but dressed up in scientific lingo. The true fate of humanity, when we take a scientific look rather than philosophical or religious one, is to go extinct one day. The idea of humanity never ending dates to a time when we didn't even know extinct species existed. It relies on the idea of us being different than all of the animals that came before us, again a religious concept now popularized into secular discourse. In reality, we are simply animals. Even the most ardent space colonization supporters expect wars to continue to occur in space. It is all forms of conflict that will destroy the species. Culture is not evidence we can be saved. The Neanderthals made paintings too. A collapse will come eventually. I look forward to the Age of Corvidae and the Age of Rattus.
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totm may 2024 Mars Sample Return discussion thread
SunlitZelkova replied to Minmus Taster's topic in Science & Spaceflight
It's much more about looking for life rather than geology. Or areology. -
Bad science in fiction Hall of Shame
SunlitZelkova replied to peadar1987's topic in Science & Spaceflight
It's actually okay, and happens from time to time. It was the Japanese officer he ends up saving. -
totm nov 2023 SpaceX Discussion Thread
SunlitZelkova replied to Skylon's topic in Science & Spaceflight
The issue is that Artemis is currently eating up funding right now. A crewed mission would be much more expensive than a robotic one. On the other hand, I could see “Polaris 11” funded by Isaacman being the first crewed mission to Mars. But I highly doubt government space agencies will have much money to spare to partake in such a mission for quite awhile. All focus is on the Moon. -
Bad science in fiction Hall of Shame
SunlitZelkova replied to peadar1987's topic in Science & Spaceflight
Dimension, universe, and reality are used interchangeably in sci-fi and it’s really annoying. -
totm may 2024 Mars Sample Return discussion thread
SunlitZelkova replied to Minmus Taster's topic in Science & Spaceflight
China has been pretty good at doing things on time, both in the field of crewed and robotic spaceflight. I would expect a delay to 2035 at most, similar to how Tianwen-1 got pushed from 2018 to 2020. -
Bad science in fiction Hall of Shame
SunlitZelkova replied to peadar1987's topic in Science & Spaceflight
I’m amazed this thread has died. It seemed like it got updated at least once a week in 2021-2022. So here’s a new one: Fallout (2024), Terminator: Genisys (2015), The Wolverine (2014)- -
I’m two episodes in too. I have never played the games but I became really interested in the lore in middle school after a War Thunder YouTuber I watched started doing Let’s Plays of it. The show really hit the mark: it has the same disturbing, yet captivating qualities that hooked me on the lore.