Which New Frontiers Mission would you choose for launch in 2021?

[fredinno]

In 2017, the competition for New Frontiers missions for launch in 2021 begins. New Frontiers missions have a cost cap of $1 Billion, and are used for medium class missions larger than discovery, but smaller than Flagship. Keep in mind that we know little about the design of these probes themselves, so this thread is more about where you would launch a mission. Missions may use an RTG or Ion Drive.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Frontiers_program

There are 6 Mission proposals being considered currently:

 

Titan/Enceledus Mission:
NASA recently sent out a call for New Frontiers proposals to study Titan and/or Enceladus. Currently, little is known about what such a mission would look like. It could do multiple flybys of Titan and Enceladus (like Europa Clipper, though radiation is not an issue at Saturn), orbit either Titan or Enceladus, or land on Titan.

Pros: 
- Both moons could harbour life, and are considered excellent scientific destinations.
- Would be great for NASA publicity- almost as much as New Horizons.
- A multi-flyby probe could help replace the lost science capability once Cassini ends its mission.
- A RTG-powered probe would likely be able to launch on a smaller Falcon Heavy via a Jupiter flyby, but would have a more expensive probe, while a solar-powered probe (like Juno, but at Saturn) would require a Jupiter Flyby, and a SLS- but the probe would likely be cheaper. Both assume we use a direct trajectory to the outer planets, and not something like VEEGA, which would increase the transit time A LOT.

Cons:
- Probably better to reserve for a Flagship mission, as it has a higher of going over-budget and being cancelled than the other missions, due to the distance to Saturn (something none of us would want).
- Would either need giant Solar panels or RTGs, due to the distance to Saturn.
- An SLS, though it would not be included in the project costs (launch costs are not included in Discovery, Explorer, and New Frontiers missions), but would still cost an arm and a leg. So would an RTG. And a VEEGA-like trajectory would give us less science data due to the lower lifetime from having to linger around the inner solar system.
- We know nothing about this mission proposal (so DON'T blindly choose this one!)

 

Saturn Atmospheric Entry Probe:
A Galileo-style entry probe carrying a carrier/relay spacecraft, which would carry the entry probe, and send data back to Earth. It would give scientists critical data about Saturn's atmosphere, including isotopic ratios, and noble gas abundances, which they apparently really want. The entry probe would survive to at least five bar, but would continue to operate until it is crushed by the atmosphere.

Pros:
- Highly important science data will be collected.

Cons:
- Mission will likely not generate any publicity.
- Mission would last for very little time despite the approx. 7 year transit time to Saturn. (4 years transit for SLS)
- Faces the same power problems as the Enceladus/Titan Mission, but with the added twist of needing a high-G entry probe- something that might be too much for the limited New Frontiers budget.

 

Venus In-Situ Explorer:
Similar to a comet probe-less VEGA, or a extended VERITAS also designed to land on Venus, Venus In-Situ Explorer would send a lander, and possibly an aero-bot or another kind of probe, to study Venus's entire atmosphere, especially of trace and noble gases. It would also study the crust and lower atmosphere in detail, something impossible from orbit. It would also obtain surface samples for study.

Pros:
- Would retrieve very high-importance science data.
- Would have less of a chance of breaking the budget due to Venus being closer.
- Venus In-Situ Explorer would make a great follow-up to VEGA.
- We need to study Venus more.

Cons: 
- It would likely be a relatively short mission-perhaps 2 days in length.
- Power is likely limited to how much you can carry in your batteries.

 

Trojan Tour and Rendezvous:
The Trojan Tour and Rendezvous mission would likely be similar to an extended version of the proposed LUCY, and would study a completely new kind of object- a Jupiter Trojan. It would flyby two or more Trojan asteroids, then settle in orbit around one of them. 

Pros:
- It would provide good scientific data on a completely unknown category of asteroids- Trojan Asteroids are thought to be very different than the ones closer into the solar system.
- It might provide a SLS mission for the empty SLS launch manifest.
- It would study multiple objects in the Trojans, getting more science data on a variety of objects there.

Cons:
- If Juno https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Juno_(spacecraft) is any indication, such a asteroid mission would need an SLS Block I or an RTG to reach the Jupiter Trojans, both which cost an arm and a leg.
- Transit time is surprisingly 10 years, no matter if you launch on SLS or Atlas V + VEEGA. SLS would provide 6x the payload capacity, though.

 

Comet Surface Sample Return:
A Comet Surface Sample Return Mission would acquire and return to Earth a small amount of cometary material from the nucleus (by landing) of a comet in a way that preserves organic compounds in the sample. It may also get a sample from multiple locations on the comet, though obviously this increases cost. It would get important data on the condition and constituents of the early Solar System, especially water and organics. It has also been suggested such a mission land near an active cometary jet. This mission would also study the comet's structure, composition, age, texture, structure, regolith, and evolution as it passes close to the Sun.

Pros:
- Good Science data can be obtained from this mission.
- Depending on the comet, and intercept location, can have less or greater risk of breaking the budget.
- Can be a good follow-up to the Rosetta/Philae mission.
- Gets cometary material not able to be obtained by the Stardust mission.

Cons:
- It might be better to wait until the next New Frontiers mission, where a Lunar space station, or Orion can retrieve the capsule- this will increase the sample size enormously, as it can ride on a much larger capsule, and reduce the mass of the spacecraft for moar! boosters!. A Lunar Space station would be especially advantageous, as it could be incorporated into the crew's mission without having to send a dedicated, expensive mission to retrieve it.

Lunar South Pole - Aitken Basin Sample Return:
A Lunar South Pole Sample Return Mission would return samples of the early Moon's deep crust(the Aitken Basin is an enormous, deep impact crater) - something the region targeted is thought to contain. It would also obtain previously unobtainable surface samples not biased by Near-side Impact basin formation at the South Pole of the Moon. Most of the science objectives, however, such as trying to understand Lunar thermal evolution, would be accomplished via the returned samples.

Pros: 
- Good science data can be obtained from this mission.
- The first lunar dust samples from the poles (and partially far side) of the Moon can finally be obtained- giving scientists an idea of what a human mission to the Moon might get at the poles/far side.
- Probably less likely to break the budget.
- Would test a NASA heavy lander (like Morpheus) that would help in building a manned lunar lander- it would launch on an Atlas 431.

Cons:
- Possibly better to wait until a Lunar Space Station (which is likely, due to the new deep space HAB work going on in NASA)+Orion can pick up the samples for Earth Return, which would increase the payload/ regolith the mission would return to Earth.

 

An Io Orbiter and Lunar Geophysical Network are proposed for a later New Frontiers mission, and are not in this New Frontiers mission contest. Information on these can be found here:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Frontiers_program#Io_Volcano_Observer

 

So, which New Frontiers Mission would you choose for launch in 2021?

Edited January 23, 2016 by fredinno

[Nibb31]

I'd take either the Venus probe or the Moon sample return. It's a shame to have to choose, they are all interesting proposals.

[Kryten]

It should probably be noted that, while the rest of those should definitely be doable, the comet surface sample return mission is something of an aspirational target. Equipment to return cometary material at cryogenic temperatures is still pretty low TRL, and it would take a very innovative and well-organised team to pull it off anytime soon.

So, CSSR is removed because probably not doable right now, Aitken Basin sample return can be ruled out for now as the Chinese will probably do it anyway with Chang'e 6, Titan/Enceladus is out because I'm pretty sure it would end up breaking the bank for NF, Saturn probe and VISE would be very short-term missions with limited data return, and Venus surface is better suited to Discovery right now; looks like my vote is Trojan Tour and Rendezvous. 

[fredinno]

6 minutes ago, Nibb31 said:

I'd take either the Venus probe or the Moon sample return. It's a shame to have to choose, they are all interesting proposals.

You can now choose one for New Frontiers 4 and one for New Frontiers 5.

 

And what do you think about integrating HSF with Sample return from a Cis-lunar space station?

 

I would choose The Trojan Tour and Rendezvous for NF 4 , and Lunar Sample Return for NF 5.

[Spaceception]

Titan/Enceladus mission with a Titan landing, only this time I hope the lander lasts longer, or even better, (Very unlikely) a rover.

Although, the Venus mission would also be a good choice, if we ever decide to put humans in the upper atmosphere of Venus.

[fredinno]

2 minutes ago, Kryten said:

Aitken Basin sample return can be ruled out for now as the Chinese will probably do it anyway with Chang'e 6,

Do we really have any clue? Lunar Pole Sample Return is more difficult than Lunar Near Side, and the Aiken is actually slightly to the far side. Also, we have no idea what that mission is like, so we can't really make any assumptions here. I think it's still a good possibility. The Chinese will probably choose somewhere else if they learn the Americans are going to the Aitken Basin. There's a lot of interesting places on the Moon.

[Kryten]

2 minutes ago, fredinno said:

Do we really have any clue? Lunar Pole Sample Return is more difficult than Lunar Near Side, and the Aiken is actually slightly to the far side. Also, we have no idea what that mission is like, so we can't really make any assumptions here. I think it's still a good possibility. The Chinese will probably choose somewhere else if they learn the Americans are going to the Aitken Basin. There's a lot of interesting places on the Moon.

We don't know for certain, but everything we know about Chang'e 4 points to it being preparation for a far side sample return mission, and for that the Aitken basin is the obvious target.

[fredinno]

10 minutes ago, Kryten said:

We don't know for certain, but everything we know about Chang'e 4 points to it being preparation for a far side sample return mission, and for that the Aitken basin is the obvious target.

Not really. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tsiolkovskiy_%28crater%29

Tsiolkovvsky had enough potential to considered for Apollo Lunar Landings. Not to mention it is on the Far side.

[Kryten]

The Aitken basin is the one prioritised by scientists, that's the whole reason it's in the NF programme. Apollo site selections were based on far more primitive knowledge of lunar geology than we have now, and were heavily constrained by non-science factors.

[fredinno]

Bump

[fredinno]

On January 23, 2016 at 3:11 PM, Kryten said:

The Aitken basin is the one prioritised by scientists, that's the whole reason it's in the NF programme. Apollo site selections were based on far more primitive knowledge of lunar geology than we have now, and were heavily constrained by non-science factors.

Still, doesn't mean that's the ONLY interesting place on the Lunar Farside. And even if one mission went to Aiken, the other might be able to make adjustments. The NASA lunar sample return is going to launch by 2024, compared to China's at 2020. If by some miracle, they don't announce their landing site beforehand, NASA still has enough time to make those adjustments.

Edited January 25, 2016 by fredinno

[fredinno]

Anyone? Nobody interested?

[Spaceception]

1 hour ago, fredinno said:

Anyone? Nobody interested?

How long do you think we would run a Cassini "2.0" and would there be a small chance they could put a lander on both Enceladus, and Titan?

(if it gets picked of course)

[fredinno]

1 hour ago, Spaceception said:

How long do you think we would run a Cassini "2.0" and would there be a small chance they could put a lander on both Enceladus, and Titan?

(if it gets picked of course)

That would be in the Flagship Program- Cassini cost about $3.26 billion and costs here are limited to 1 billion.

Edited January 25, 2016 by fredinno

[Spaceception]

27 minutes ago, fredinno said:

That would be in the Flagship Program- Cassini cost about $3.26 billion and costs here are limited to 1 billion.

Oh, but haven't costs for sending stuff into space dropped? And it shouldn't cost a lot less if you just bring a couple of lightweight landers, instead of a full-blown Cassini-like craft? And what if you launch it from a Falcon Heavy? I'm just throwing around possibility's at this point

[fredinno]

8 minutes ago, Spaceception said:

Oh, but haven't costs for sending stuff into space dropped? And it shouldn't cost a lot less if you just bring a couple of lightweight landers, instead of a full-blown Cassini-like craft? And what if you launch it from a Falcon Heavy? I'm just throwing around possibility's at this point

It would still be way over Cassini. It's possible to have a New Horizons mission to Titan, but it has to really be descoped. Something like this:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Titan_Mare_Explorer

And New Frontiers costs don't include launch, so that side of the equation is null anyways. You might as well launch on an SLS, but you probably need specal permission for something that huge.

[insert_name]

And it's down to two finalists, a Titan quadcopter and a 67p g/c (Rosetta's comet) sample return mission

https://spaceflightnow.com/2017/12/20/nuclear-powered-titan-drone-comet-sampler-picked-as-finalists-for-new-nasa-mission/

[DDE]

Gib roubles plox, Luna-25 also wants that Aitken ice.

[NSEP]

This was hard to choose.

[kerbiloid]

67P samples look better for me.
Why send a drone to Titan before really exploring it from a personal titanian orbiter? Drone are for close proximities of interesting places.

[insert_name]

Dragonfly has been selected as the next new frontiers mission

https://solarsystem.nasa.gov/news/986/nasa-selects-flying-mission-to-study-titan-for-origins-signs-of-life/