Weather Chat Megathread

[Green Baron]

Tropical storms can form over tropical (warm) waters all around the world. They are called hurricanes in the Atlantic and eastern Pacific and Typhoons in the western Pacific.

Indian ocean also sees tropical storms, just not as frequently as the larger waterbodies (this should be checked).

Edited September 11, 2017 by Green Baron

[ProtoJeb21]

Oh, hello there.

Tropical Depression 15-E just formed out of the remnants from Hurricane Katia several hundred miles southwest of the tip of Baja California. Barely any strengthening is anticipated, and the chances are low that this will develop into a name storm. The second area in the EPac under investigation still has potential to impact Mexico as a named storm. The third area may become a strong hurricane that may threaten the Baja California peninsula.

[Just Jim]

20 hours ago, Ultimate Steve said:

The nonchalance with which I imagine you saying that has me laughing out loud...

I had a good idea of what they were, but there was still an awe factor to it. 

19 hours ago, LordFerret said:

I am truly at a loss for words.....

Actual Fla. Sheriff's Tweet: Do Not Shoot the Hurricane

Yeah, it doesn't surprise me. Florida is nuts. 

12 hours ago, ProtoJeb21 said:

Jose's future path is...weird. The models for the next week or so show it looping around like crazy while moving north and possibly hitting New England or Atlantic Canada. 

The same models also suggest that one of the areas of interest in the EPac could develop into a VERY strong hurricane - Cat 4 or 5 - before making landfall in Baja California, moving into the bay there, re-intensifying, and making a second landfall in Mexico. The next EPac name would be Max.

Not liking the idea of a storm named Max

[TheKosanianMethod]

Getting cloudy here in VA... it was 49F this morning. I was wearing jeans... in September! 

[DarkOwl57]

On 9/11/2017 at 6:44 AM, The Space Dino said:

Hurricanes develop on the West Coast of the U.S. too? I didn't know that?

They're generally Typhoons or Cyclones but yeah; they're basically hurricanes

 

[SaturnianBlue]

57 minutes ago, DarkOwl57 said:

They're generally Typhoons or Cyclones but yeah; they're basically hurricanes

 

On the West Coast they're still called hurricanes, actually.

[DarkOwl57]

15 hours ago, Just Jim said:

Yeah, it doesn't surprise me. Florida is nuts. 

Didn't a Floridian try to eat someone a while back?

[XLjedi]

On ‎9‎/‎12‎/‎2017 at 10:02 AM, DarkOwl57 said:

Didn't a Floridian try to eat someone a while back?

That was a neighborhood about a mile or two to the north of me.  I'd try to make a joke about it... but he killed the poor folks in their garage for no reason.  Toxicology reported no drugs in his system and he was otherwise a typical high school kid with no prior issues.  To me, it seemed consistent with psychosis brought on by synthetic drugs and/or bath salts.  

Back on the weather track...  We just got back from our "vacation" to Tallahassee and Pensacola.  No damage to speak of and we got our power back last night (Woohoo, go FPL!).  The only casualty thus far is one of my nVidia  cards lost a cooling fan somehow?  The PC wouldn't boot.

Looking around, not much damage here, we feel like we dodged another bullet.  The Keys, not so lucky. Locally, some (8) poor old folks at a nursing home died due to lack of AC.  ...and some people out in Belle Glade left animals chained to trees to die.  I think criminal charges should follow in both cases.

Edited September 14, 2017 by XLjedi

[LordFerret]

53 minutes ago, XLjedi said:

(8) poor old folks at a nursing home died

Yes, this is true. The loss of power disabled their A/C system. I don't know the full story, but such a facility should have had a backup generator. Supposedly there was some power restored, but the facility was relying on portable A/C units. I'm sure some wrong-doing will be declared about this, incompetence and mismanagement.

In another report I saw (on national news), pure incompetence if not outright neglect, was video of a room full of elderly patients in a nursing home which was flooded out... some of them bed-bound in wet beds, still others just sitting there in wheelchairs in water up to their chests. Where was the facility's staff?!? What idiot would leave disabled elderly unattended as such?!?

The 'shake my head' moment of the day was watching home owners returning to their devastated homes in the Keys, crying about their losses while discussing how they'll rebuild. My taxes help pay for this folly. So do yours.

[SaturnianBlue]

Active tropics today: Hurricane Jose has weakened to a tropical storm, and has a some chance of affecting the eastern coast of the US as it begins to trek northwards. Still looks like a big blob.

The East Pacific is busy again, with hurricane Max showing up, having intensified rapidly as it nears the Mexican coast. It also looks like a blob, but an eye showed up on satellite.

Tropical storm Norma has also showed up, and is heading north, and is forecasted to become a hurricane.

TD-15 E is still active, and could become a tropical storm.

In the West Pacific, Typhoon Talim peaked as a category 4 before weakening to a category 2. It's got a distinct, giant eye, but it's convection is shockingly low. It's headed towards Japan.

There's also Doksuri, which is intensifying, and is headed towards Vietnam.

 

Edited September 14, 2017 by SaturnianBlue

[tater]

 

[Mrcarrot]

On 9/11/2017 at 8:30 PM, TheKosanianMethod said:

Getting cloudy here in VA... it was 49F this morning. I was wearing jeans... in September! 

Not a big deal in SW MN.

[ProtoJeb21]

Quite a lot of tropical activity lately. The EPac is back in action, with Tropical Depression 15, Tropical Storm Norma, and Hurricane Max forming just this week. The latter became the third Mexico hurricane landfall THIS YEAR. Meanwhile, Jose should become a hurricane again, while Tropical Depression 14 (soon to be Lee) has formed. There's some more stuff that I will do an actual analysis on later. 

[XLjedi]

On ‎9‎/‎13‎/‎2017 at 9:36 PM, LordFerret said:

The 'shake my head' moment of the day was watching home owners returning to their devastated homes in the Keys, crying about their losses while discussing how they'll rebuild. My taxes help pay for this folly. So do yours.

Try taking a map of the US and circling all the areas that should be uninhabitable due to possible disaster. 

You can start by circling the entire city of New Orleans for existing below sea level, the Mississippi river basin for flooding, tornado alley from northern Texas, up through Kansas and into Missiouri, everything west of the San Andreas fault line in California, the whole state of Florida, the entire eastern seaboard of the US, and all the states bordering the Yellowstone mega volcano.     

Paying for a few mobile home parks in the Keys and rebuilding state infrastructure doesn't concern me too much...  The folks that are rebuilding their winter condos down there aren't going to qualify for FEMA aid. 

On the other hand, terrorists could mount an effective attack against New Orleans by showing up with a shovel!   

New Orleans Elevation Map

 

[tater]

Below sea level (NOLA) is a no-brainer place to start. Insurance should be ridiculous, and the taxpayers should be on the hook for nothing there.

I think the question is not if a disaster is possible, but the chance of such a disaster, combined with zoning to mitigate it.

If I lived in OK, for example, I'd build an earth-sheltered house. 

If you had something like this:

Each window/door opening like this could also have angled shutters that "fair" the opening to the ground in front along the slope line. 

Living in a such a place in a stick home seems silly, and insurance should reflect that. In places like the coasts, hurricanes are possible, but proper buildings can survive, they are just more expensive. In short, it's just an engineering problem most places.

[ProtoJeb21]

Hurricane Jose update: Things are looking worse for where I live. Ventusky models (I'm continuing to use the site because of how accurate it's been with previous storms) suggest that Jose will begin to rapidly intensify tomorrow, possibly becoming a Category 4 hurricane - albeit not as strong as before - off the coast of the Carolinas this weekend. It is then forecasted to get VERY close to New York, New Jersey, Long Island, Connecticut, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island. And by very close I mean just tens of miles off the coast. Over the last two days Jose's forecasts have put it closer and closer towards the New England/Tri-State Area coastline, and this makes me believe that a direct landfall is likely, possibly in my state. Oh snap. Even worse, Jose could STILL be a Category 3 at this time. @LetsGoToMars! @_Augustus_

Meanwhile, in the Caribbean, Invest-96L seems likely to quickly develop into a major hurricane. Ventusky suggests it may become a Category 5 - the second of the year - before slightly weakening and smashing into Santo Domingo, DR on the 20th/21st. Thankfully, the island will take quite a toll on this storm (which will likely be named Maria), but within a few days it will stall over the Bahamas and regain Category 4 status. This stalling is forecasted to be caused by Hurricane Jose moving south to the area around Bermuda. Any forecasts beyond the Dominican Republic and Haiti should be taken with a grain of salt, as Jose's final days are very uncertain and will possibly have an influence on Future-Maria's track. However, potential United States impacts seem inevitable with this storm. Stay safe guys...and me, too, I guess.

In other tropical news: nothing else (except for Norma in the EPac and whatever's left of Typhoon Talim) is set to impact land within the next 10 days. Poor little Tropical Depression 14 (which is actually the 13th tropical depression in the Atlantic) seems unlikely to become anything significant, and could possibly fail to attain tropical storm status. I was hoping that this would just manage to become a Category 1 so the 2017 season could have SEVEN straight hurricanes. Since TD14 is just going to meander in the open Atlantic, it being a hurricane is no concern to anyone except for the Seagull Empire.

[_Augustus_]

12 minutes ago, ProtoJeb21 said:

Oh snap. Even worse, Jose could STILL be a Category 3 at this time. @LetsGoToMars! @_Augustus_

 

It's barely a hurricane at all right now. 

[The Space Dino]

1 minute ago, _Augustus_ said:

It's barely a hurricane at all right now. 

You never know.... 

[Just Jim]

I'm finally back.... here's what I woke up to the morning of Irma. This is the house across the street from me.

Needless to say, it was... interesting... 

Edited September 16, 2017 by Just Jim

[SaturnianBlue]

Tropical storm Lee has formed, but will likely pose no threat to land as it remains a weak storm over the course of the next few days. The bigger threat is PTC 15, which is likely to become Hurricane Maria, heading towards the very areas that were devastated by Irma in the Leewards. I think it's far too early to debate the impacts on the US or the intensity, but we could very well have a major hurricane.

 

@ProtoJeb21 Seems unlikely... The NHC forecast for a Category 1 storm that gradually weakens is far more likely in my opinion.

Edited September 16, 2017 by SaturnianBlue

[ProtoJeb21]

56 minutes ago, SaturnianBlue said:

Tropical storm Lee has formed, but will likely pose no threat to land as it remains a weak storm over the course of the next few days. The bigger threat is PTC 15, which is likely to become Hurricane Maria, heading towards the very areas that were devastated by Irma in the Leewards. I think it's far too early to debate the impacts on the US or the intensity, but we could very well have a major hurricane.

 

@ProtoJeb21 Seems unlikely... The NHC forecast for a Category 1 storm that gradually weakens is far more likely in my opinion.

I hope nature won't be that cruel and let the devastated islands like Sint Maarten and Barbuda get hit by another hurricane. The models I'm looking at suggest a much more southern track, taking it into the Dominican Republic and Haiti. 

Meanwhile, with Jose...I'll need to check some more models later. As of this morning Ventusky still suggests the possibility of a Category 3 or 4 storm off the Carolina coast. 

[SaturnianBlue]

1 minute ago, ProtoJeb21 said:

I hope nature won't be that cruel and let the devastated islands like Sint Maarten and Barbuda get hit by another hurricane. The models I'm looking at suggest a much more southern track, taking it into the Dominican Republic and Haiti. 

Meanwhile, with Jose...I'll need to check some more models later. As of this morning Ventusky still suggests the possibility of a Category 3 or 4 storm off the Carolina coast. 

It's happened before with Hurricane Luis and Marilyn in 1995—the two storms struck the Leewards within 2 weeks of each other.

I'm not sure how Jose would intensify like that.

Edited September 16, 2017 by SaturnianBlue

[LordFerret]

On 9/15/2017 at 11:13 AM, XLjedi said:

Try taking a map of the US and circling all the areas that should be uninhabitable due to possible disaster. 

You can start by circling - snip -

 

Yes, of course, but I'm not proposing an extremist view. A bit of common sense is in order when dealing with these things.

For example..... v

 

On 9/15/2017 at 11:27 AM, tater said:

Below sea level (NOLA) is a no-brainer place to start. Insurance should be ridiculous, and the taxpayers should be on the hook for nothing there.

I think the question is not if a disaster is possible, but the chance of such a disaster, combined with zoning to mitigate it.

- snip -

Common sense.

I have my own example to stare at here at the Jersey shore. How many times must we go through this before common sense prevails? In my lifetime alone there's been thousands of homes and businesses and beaches washed away and obliterated... even an entire segment of an island (Long Beach Island, Nor'easter of 1962), which I remember quite well... see links below.

Some of the reporting in this link I disagree with; The comment from the 'state climatologist' about sea level rise. Our tide marks are exactly the same since I was a boy age 5.
http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2012/03/50_years_later_nj_remembers_wh.html

Bunch of pictures here...
http://www.pressofatlanticcity.com/features/f6/storm-of-long-beach-island/collection_3abe0c84-64b1-11e1-9b6c-0019bb2963f4.html#1

 

@Just Jim
Good to hear that you didn't lose much. Hope you stowed all those nice orchids before the storm hit!

[Just Jim]

31 minutes ago, LordFerret said:

@Just Jim
Good to hear that you didn't lose much. Hope you stowed all those nice orchids before the storm hit!

They're fine, thanks.   

They were one of the last things I brought in, because of needing what sunlight they could get.

In fact, interesting side story, they spent almost 3 days in my garage, which was fairly dark, and it stressed one into popping off a bloom!
FYI, this species normally blooms in early spring, and never, ever in September.

 

 

 

[ProtoJeb21]

@SaturnianBlue A new aircraft recon flight is in Hurricane Jose, and has noticed significant intensification. Pressure down to 974 mbar with winds up to 80-85 knots.