Weather Chat Megathread

[tater]

Yikes, then right over the Cape. Let's hope it clobbers Cuba, instead, and slows down.

[Green Baron]

5 minutes ago, tater said:

Let's hope it clobbers Cuba,

Not nice .

[tater]

Anywhere with mountains would help.

I'd prefer for it to turn north and stay at sea, but if it's going to make landfall, the least impact possible to the US would be the best outcome to me. Crawling straight up FL would do vastly more damage, since there's more to damage. 

If it was to hit the US, and I had to pick where, I'd probably have to head for Houston, which is already wrecked, for example. That would make rebuilding easier, rather than wrecking two locations. 

But I don't control the weather, lol.  

[SaturnianBlue]

Aircraft reconnaissance is showing category 4 level winds, so Irma is going to be upgraded, probably. The pressure is around 944 millibars, which isn't far from that of Harvey's minimum. A hit on Cuba or Hispaniola's becoming increasingly likely, and a turn towards Florida. 

Irma's ACE is already at 17.3—taking the season, which was mostly below average in terms of ACE, several days ahead of average in the most active phase of the season.

Edit: The tropical wave behind Irma is becoming consistently more likely to form (40 % in the next 2 days, 70% in the next 5), and the system in the Bay of Campeche is being given 40/50% chances for formation in the next 2 or 5 days.

Edit 2: Irma is officially a Category 4 hurricane, and in the next few days it is expected to reach 150 MPH winds... Florida is officially in the 5 day cone of error.

Edited September 4, 2017 by SaturnianBlue

[ProtoJeb21]

@SaturnianBlue The Ventusky models have also been updated with Irma's upgrading to a Cat 4. They suggest that as soon at the 7th, Irma will reach Category 5 intensity with 165 to 170 mph winds. By the 8th, it could be at 185 to 190 mph - as powerful as Hurricanes Allen and Wilma. Thankfully, Irma is expected to (slightly) weaken by the following day. However, Ventusky suggest that Irma will not hit Cuba at all...rather, it will be pulled up and make a Miami landfall on the 10th, with winds possibly up to 190 mph!!!!!

@Just Jim @Spaceception I have some good advice for you guys: RUUUUUUUUUUUUN!

[tater]

6 minutes ago, ProtoJeb21 said:

@SaturnianBlue The Ventusky models have also been updated with Irma's upgrading to a Cat 4. They suggest that as soon at the 7th, Irma will reach Category 5 intensity with 165 to 170 mph winds. By the 8th, it could be at 185 to 190 mph - as powerful as Hurricanes Allen and Wilma. Thankfully, Irma is expected to (slightly) weaken by the following day. However, Ventusky suggest that Irma will not hit Cuba at all...rather, it will be pulled up and make a Miami landfall on the 10th, with winds possibly up to 190 mph!!!!!

@Just Jim @Spaceception I have some good advice for you guys: RUUUUUUUUUUUUN!

As I'm safe from weather (volcanos like the Valles Caldera up by Los Alamos are another issue  ), I never got much into tropical storms, but I've been perusing discussions the last couple weeks. Anyway, what's the deal with he different models? Many guys (PhD meteorologists) seems to be laughing at GFS, and preferring the Euro models. Anyone really grok what's what?

[ProtoJeb21]

Oh, and even more bad news: The Ventrusky models suggest that Irma will double or TRIPLE in size after a Florida and Georgia landfall, with hurricane-force winds lasting until September 12th.

Meanwhile, from the 11th to 13th, Hurricane Jose (as a Category 3) will do something weird: after moving northwest before taking a sharp northeast turn, it will actually move SOUTHeast.

[tater]

 

[ProtoJeb21]

1 minute ago, tater said:

Many guys (PhD meteorologists) seems to be laughing at GFS, and preferring the Euro models.

The European models have a good reputation for being quite accurate. Take Sandy, for example. The Euro models managed to predict its odd westward turn into New Jersey a whole WEEK before it even got to the Mid-Atlantic coast.

[tater]

It's certainly a fascinating discipline, and one I never paid much attention to---likely a situation exacerbated by the draught of large hurricanes posing a threat to the US over the last 10+ years.

Hope KSC battens down the hatches, particularly the SpaceX hangers. I'm always surprised that structures are not bermed more in FL (or OK). If I lived in tornado/hurricane country, I'd try and be well above flood level, and I'd make my house bermed, too (my current house is, actually, you can step onto the roof from the back yard).

Edited September 4, 2017 by tater

[Ultimate Steve]

Okay, uh, this may sound a bit weird, but our sky was yellow. Then it was dark-ish green... then it turned light yellow-green... and now it's orange... I think it's turning pink.

I'm not lying, I promise. This is so weird... I'm sort of creeped out by it.

[Just Jim]

51 minutes ago, ProtoJeb21 said:

@Just Jim @Spaceception I have some good advice for you guys: RUUUUUUUUUUUUN!

There isn't much we can do, except wait and see what happens. We've been through several of these, and are about as stocked as we can be. Biggest problem is usually the power, so I might be off-line for a couple days, depending on how it goes.

But honestly, I don't really watch spaghetti models until about 3 days out... from my experience, any further back than that and they're just guessing... 

30 minutes ago, Ultimate Steve said:

Okay, uh, this may sound a bit weird, but our sky was yellow. Then it was dark-ish green... then it turned light yellow-green... and now it's orange... I think it's turning pink.

I'm not lying, I promise. This is so weird... I'm sort of creeped out by it.

Green? Only time I've seen the sky turn green is if there's a tornado close by... 

[SaturnianBlue]

41 minutes ago, Ultimate Steve said:

Okay, uh, this may sound a bit weird, but our sky was yellow. Then it was dark-ish green... then it turned light yellow-green... and now it's orange... I think it's turning pink.

I'm not lying, I promise. This is so weird... I'm sort of creeped out by it.

For me the sunlight was a little reddish today, I think it's being caused by the wildfires in Canada.

 

58 minutes ago, tater said:

As I'm safe from weather (volcanos like the Valles Caldera up by Los Alamos are another issue  ), I never got much into tropical storms, but I've been perusing discussions the last couple weeks. Anyway, what's the deal with he different models? Many guys (PhD meteorologists) seems to be laughing at GFS, and preferring the Euro models. Anyone really grok what's what?

I'm no meteorologist, but as far as I can tell, the GFS has gained quite the reputation recently for having a rather inconsistent record, developing a storm and then choosing not to in the next run. As for other models, if I recall correctly, the UKMET has a pretty good reputation, and while the HWRF is pretty bad for forecasting storms before they form, its apparently a good model for storm intensity once it develops.

State of Emergency has been declared for Florida. This is merely my opinion, but Irma is looking like a bit like Matthew for track, but it might actually strike Florida this time...

58 minutes ago, ProtoJeb21 said:

Oh, and even more bad news: The Ventrusky models suggest that Irma will double or TRIPLE in size after a Florida and Georgia landfall, with hurricane-force winds lasting until September 12th.

Meanwhile, from the 11th to 13th, Hurricane Jose (as a Category 3) will do something weird: after moving northwest before taking a sharp northeast turn, it will actually move SOUTHeast.

Jose better not pull a Jeanne...

Edited September 4, 2017 by SaturnianBlue

[ProtoJeb21]

7 minutes ago, SaturnianBlue said:

This is merely my opinion, but Irma is looking like a bit like Matthew for track, but it might actually strike Florida this time...

Yep, I'm also getting some Matthew deja-vu. Comparing any storm to Matthew means that things are going to get quite ugly. The good news for Haiti is that while Irma may be a Category 5 at closest approach, most of its strongest winds will be displaced to the north. Let's hope they get it lucky this time.

9 minutes ago, SaturnianBlue said:

Jose better not pull a Jeanne...

I doubt it. Future-Jose is likely going to stay FAR away from any landmasses, although like Jeanne it will probably have one VERY weird track.

[Spaceception]

2 hours ago, ProtoJeb21 said:

@SaturnianBlue The Ventusky models have also been updated with Irma's upgrading to a Cat 4. They suggest that as soon at the 7th, Irma will reach Category 5 intensity with 165 to 170 mph winds. By the 8th, it could be at 185 to 190 mph - as powerful as Hurricanes Allen and Wilma. Thankfully, Irma is expected to (slightly) weaken by the following day. However, Ventusky suggest that Irma will not hit Cuba at all...rather, it will be pulled up and make a Miami landfall on the 10th, with winds possibly up to 190 mph!!!!!

@Just Jim @Spaceception I have some good advice for you guys: RUUUUUUUUUUUUN!

I'm not in Florida anymore, I'm in Pennsylvania

But Just Jim, good luck.

[Benjamin Kerman]

5 hours ago, Ultimate Steve said:

Okay, uh, this may sound a bit weird, but our sky was yellow. Then it was dark-ish green... then it turned light yellow-green... and now it's orange... I think it's turning pink.

I'm not lying, I promise. This is so weird... I'm sort of creeped out by it.

Yeah, that sounds like a tornado...

[Nailed it!]

At least a summer thunderstorm every 2 years.

Many blizzards (once caught me while I was skiing)

9 months without rain of any sort some time ago (Depending on where you live, Spain can be really dry or really cold, or both)

I was outside and hail got me. Twice

I left from my grandma's house during a thunderstorm. Lightning struck at a tree right after I left.

No hurriacanes nor "true" tornados (we can have some dust devils and watersprouts that necer reach the ground)

Mud rains (Yeah, hot wind from the Sahara brings sand that falls with rain, literraly raining mud, a carwasher's dream)

Not experienced by me, but my father told me that in the mountains it rained frogs 0_0

Weeeird

 

Edited September 5, 2017 by Nailed it!
Adding the rain that dirties instead of cleaning

[Nailed it!]

On 19/7/2016 at 3:28 PM, T-Bouw said:

While we don't have such extreme weather conditions here in western Europe, I swear, it's getting more weird every year.

This summer's the coldest it's ever been.
So much so that some plants are already dropping their leaves, birds are still laying eggs, and I'm still forced to wear a jacked to work.

This week is much better though.
Sunday I took a nice stroll along the beach and today we BBQ!

I'm going to enjoy it to the fullest as it seems this nice weather is getting more and more rare.

I live in Europe too, but in the south, so I get the opposite.

Long droughs, thunderstorms, 3 digits in some areas in summer, high ultraviolet radiation, short sleeve T-shirts from April to November, not reaching 10 Celsius even in early January and, because of the heat, even jellyfish blooms, making beach time more annoying than fun. If we had deciduous trees they would keep leaves a long time.

But when winter strikes in the mountains, a meter of snow in just two days.

Spain is weird. We even have mud rain.

[Green Baron]

"We" don't have hurricanes because the conditions for forming aren't given here. Westerly winds prevail, higher temperature differences, typical cyclones pass in a row that stick to the standard and sometimes the northern Atlantic high stretches out to the western fringes. Our weather is mostly defined by smaller scale occurrences and a highly subdivided landscape.

Depending on where you live in Spain, you can have whole families of dustdevils, some 200m in diameter. I saw those in the area around Piedrahíta in August. Very intense thermals there, cloud base 5000m, very nice to paraglide for the experienced, frozen fingers included (in August) ;-) Heavy rain events in winter on the southern coast, when the Mediterranean is still warm, can still cause considerable damage.

We rarely have tornados in Europe because the polar front and subtropic air rarely mix together. But as overall energy and moisture in the atmosphere rises due to warming and more and more of the landmass becomes inhabited we observe ever more of these things because we tend to only observe things that concern our little selves or property (As we have seen above threats to the lives of others are sometimes ignored.). European tornados usually don't have the strength of the big funnels we know of the American chaser videos and overall houses in Europe are rather built of stone than wood, so they are damaged but usually not that easily levelled. And you were right, even without swearing but statistics of the weather services these events are becoming much more frequent.

25 minutes ago, Nailed it! said:

But when winter strikes in the mountains, a meter of snow in just two days.

One can sail in quiet conditions of the coast of Almería in 25°C and have a view of the snow-covered peaks of the "Snowy Mountains" ...

Edited September 5, 2017 by Green Baron

[Nailed it!]

23 minutes ago, Green Baron said:

"We" don't have hurricanes because the conditions for forming aren't given here. Westerly winds prevail, higher temperature differences, typical cyclones pass in a row that stick to the standard and sometimes the northern Atlantic high stretches out to the western fringes. Our weather is mostly defined by smaller scale occurrences and a highly subdivided landscape

Especially in Catalunya, were we have swampland (Ebro delta) , low mountains (Litoral Range), cliffside (Costa Brava), calm beaches (Costa Daurada), desert (Plana de Lleida) Flatland and rolling hills (Central Depression) and high mountains (Pyrynees), with wild temperature, weather and humidity difference depending on the location. And for some reason anticyclones and African wind seem to like Catalunya, contributing to a hot, sunny and dry weather, but bringing mud when it rains.

23 minutes ago, Green Baron said:

One can sail in quiet conditions of the coast of Almería in 25°C and have a view of the snow-covered peaks of the "Snowy Mountains" ...

Sierra Nevada? The mountains are quite high and Andalucía in general is really hot so it may happen from time to time. You can see this phenomenom in the Cantabrian Range in the Northern Coast, which is like a warmer and steppy France; but not at 25 ºC in the North

Edited September 5, 2017 by Nailed it!

[SaturnianBlue]

Irma is officially the strongest storm of the season with 938 mb and 150 MPH winds... Category 5 looks almost certain, and I think the storm might even be annular now.

[ProtoJeb21]

8 minutes ago, SaturnianBlue said:

Irma is officially the strongest storm of the season with 938 mb and 150 MPH winds... Category 5 looks almost certain, and I think the storm might even be annular now.

I wouldn't be shocked at all if Irma reaches Cat 5 by today. I mean, LOOK at its satellite image! It's incredibly well organized with very powerful convection surrounding a small, deep eye. The only reason I would be shocked is if it DOESN'T become a Category 5 at all.

[ProtoJeb21]

IRMA IS A CAT 5!!!

[The Space Dino]

I do not know too much about weather, but I can say that those upcoming hurricanes do not look good at all, Houston has been hit pretty hard already, let's just hope nothing too bad happens.

For those who live in areas where the hurricane might hit, well, as @Just Jim said, just prepare the best you can, hope you guys can get through things without losing too much...

6 minutes ago, ProtoJeb21 said:

IRMA IS A CAT 5!!!

 

EDIT: Florida, BRACE YOURSELVES!!!! Poor Cuba, too.

Really, I'm EXTREMELY lucky to live in a pretty disaster free area (Malaysia)

Edited September 5, 2017 by The Space Dino

[ProtoJeb21]

Okay, now that I've kinda calmed down from the shock, let's get into the facts: as of right now, Hurricane Hunters have found that Irma has rapidly intensified into a Category 5 with 175 mph winds and a pressure of 929 mbar. This is the SAME intensity as Hurricane Felix a decade earlier. It's heading straight for the Leeward Islands, and will likely be the strongest storm to ever hit these tiny land masses. Unfortunately for Florida, it looks like Irma will continue to strengthen. This storm is likely to become one of the Top 10 strongest in Atlantic history, and might - just might - get to Hurricane Wilma intensity, in terms of pressure. It also has a chance to reach wind speeds of 190-200 mph.