Weather Chat Megathread

[razark]

Just had an impressive line of storms move through.  Lots of cloud-to-ground lightning.

And it's supposed to keep storming until late afternoon tomorrow.  Hopefully, it'll clear up in time for grilling.

 

At least it's supposed to keep the temperature down.

[SaturnianBlue]

@ProtoJeb21 Hurricane Fabio is about to hit cooler waters though, the NHC seems to think that Fabio has reached peak intensity, just sort of major hurricane status. 

In news closer to home, the heat is BAD! At least I spend most of my time indoors, though I guess that's not a good thing either...

[ProtoJeb21]

Well...the tropics are getting interesting. 

In the West Pacific, Tropical Storm Maria (another one already?!) has formed and appears to be quickly intensifying. The current forecast model predicts it reaching Super Typhoon status with 155 mph winds, but based on the GFS models it could easily reach Category 5 status. It would be quite interesting if there happened to be TWO Cat 5 Marias within just a year. 

Meanwhile in the Atlantic, two areas of low pressure have been given medium chances of development. The first, near Bermuda, has a 60% chance of becoming a depression during the next five days. However, its organization has yet to improve. Invest-95L, the second area of interest, is continuing to become better organized and has a 50% chance of developing this week, but it could easily become this year’s second tropical depression in just a few days. Neither of these are going to impact land. 

Also, the re-analysis of the 2017 Typhoon season determines that Super Typhoon Noru did not reach Category 5 strength at all, but instead had 155 mph winds at peak intensity. I thought that was something interesting to share. 

[cubinator]

Today it rained a bunch in the morning and there was lots of lightning, but it cleared up in the afternoon.

[ProtoJeb21]

Tropical Depression Two has formed in the Atlantic’s main development region. 

*5 seconds later*

Now it’s Tropical Storm Beryl. It shouldn’t get more powerful than a 40-45 mph tropical storm. 

*another quick period of time later*

Apprently Beryl is already at 50 mph, and a few models on Tropical Tidbits forecast it getting stronger, maybe even becoming a Category 1 hurricane. Odd. 

 

Meanwhile, according to Tropical Tidbits, Typhoon Maria has begun rapid or even explosive intensification, going from 90 mph to 120 mph during the last six hours with a central pressure of 953 mbar. It looks very likely that Maria could become a powerful Category 5, like its Atlantic counterpart from last year. 

EDIT: Make that 125 mph and 949 mbar now. 

Edited July 5, 2018 by ProtoJeb21

[Just Jim]

21 minutes ago, ProtoJeb21 said:

Now it’s Tropical Storm Beryl. It shouldn’t get more powerful than a 40-45 mph tropical storm. 

*another quick period of time later*

Apprently Beryl is already at 50 mph, and a few models on Tropical Tidbits forecast it getting stronger, maybe even becoming a Category 1 hurricane. Odd

And heading towards the Gulf... Let the hurricane season begin... 

Oh, and FYI, it's already rainy season here... been getting afternoon T-storms every day for a week or so now. My garden is loving it.

Edited July 5, 2018 by Just Jim

[SaturnianBlue]

The resemblance to last year's Maria is rather eerie—both hit a U.S. Territory (though at very different intensities), and formed a pinhole eye during explosive intensification. Wouldn't be surprised if it officially hits super typhoon status in a few hours.

Beryl is a tiny storm. If Beryl somehow intensifies more than expected (which is already quite a shocking amount), it might be like a July version of Hurricane Danny from 2015—a small, but relatively powerful hurricane in the MDR, which gets ripped apart by wind shear and dry air as it approaches the Leeward islands.

[TheKSPBeginner]

i want a thunderstorm

[ProtoJeb21]

2 hours ago, Just Jim said:

And heading towards the Gulf... Let the hurricane season begin... 

Oh, and FYI, it's already rainy season here... been getting afternoon T-storms every day for a week or so now. My garden is loving it.

Don’t worry, Beryl will be completely harmless. Given how this season is forecast to be relatively inactive, you likely don’t have to be concerned until it peaks in September. 

1 hour ago, SaturnianBlue said:

The resemblance to last year's Maria is rather eerie—both hit a U.S. Territory (though at very different intensities), and formed a pinhole eye during explosive intensification. Wouldn't be surprised if it officially hits super typhoon status in a few hours.

Beryl is a tiny storm. If Beryl somehow intensifies more than expected (which is already quite a shocking amount), it might be like a July version of Hurricane Danny from 2015—a small, but relatively powerful hurricane in the MDR, which gets ripped apart by wind shear and dry air as it approaches the Leeward islands.

The spirit of Hurricane Maria has returned for its revenge!  

All jokes aside, if this Maria continues to intensify at the rate it has been today (jumping from 90 mph to 125 mph in six hours), I expect it to become a Category 5 Super Typhoon by tomorrow, easily. It could reach or even surpass the intensity of Hurricane Maria from last year. Regarding Beryl, I’m not too sure it’ll get as strong as Danny, and the GFS models are not looking too good for it. I don’t expect anything stronger than a 70-80 mph tropical storm or hurricane at max. 

1 hour ago, TheKSPBeginner said:

i want a thunderstorm

No you don’t. You’re going to jinx yourself and end up losing power or getting struck by a Derecho or something like that. Plus, any thunderstorm is dangerous, and they’re something no one should wish for. 

[Just Jim]

20 minutes ago, ProtoJeb21 said:

Don’t worry, Beryl will be completely harmless. Given how this season is forecast to be relatively inactive, you likely don’t have to be concerned until it peaks in September. 

Oh, I'm not worried. I don't start to worry until they're a couple days out. Irma taught us all that. I was just saying it's got a name, and it's heading in this general direction, so it's now "officially" hurricane season.

I am, however, a little concerned about the batch of rain about to hit... it's rumbling pretty good, so I think i'll shut down the computer for a bit, just in case. 

 

1 hour ago, TheKSPBeginner said:

i want a thunderstorm

Come spend a summer down here... You'll quickly learn what a real thunderstorm can do.   

[ProtoJeb21]

Maria is now a Category 5 Super Typhoon with 160 mph winds and a pressure of 918 mbar. It shows no signs of slowing down and could easily reach Irma-level wind speeds (180 mph or above).

[SaturnianBlue]

@ProtoJeb21 With pretty much nothing stopping it aside from eyeball replacement cycles, the storm might be the first sub-900 mb storm since Meranti in 2016.

[ProtoJeb21]

18 minutes ago, SaturnianBlue said:

@ProtoJeb21 With pretty much nothing stopping it aside from eyeball replacement cycles, the storm might be the first sub-900 mb storm since Meranti in 2016.

The GFS model seems to think so as well - some of its runs over the last day or so have predicted Maria bottoming out at 900 to 890 mbar, but it could become even more powerful. 

[ProtoJeb21]

Umm...somehow Beryl is a hurricane, and could get stronger. Maybe it will end up being like Danny or Lee after all. As the latter showed, tiny systems can become surprisingly strong. 

Meanwhile, just like Hurricane Maria, Super Typhoon Maria has briefly dropped from 160 mph to 155 mph and will likely become a Category 5 again. I’m not entirely sure why this happened - maybe an eyewall replacement cycle, but current satellite images of Maria show no signs of that. At least, no signs that I can tell. The GFS models are suggesting it will once again intensify, reaching Hurricane Maria’s strength or surpassing it a tiny bit between later today and early Sunday. 

[SaturnianBlue]

Invest 96L, off the east coast, is becoming more and more likely to form. The computer models are quite divided—the ECMWF predicts a relatively weak storm forming before moving into Canada. GFS... Is rather wild, showing a storm that intensifies into a category 3 hurricane that strikes Maine as a category 1. A scenario vaguely like a stronger version of Arthur in 2014. Hopefully that's not the scenario that plays out.

Edited July 6, 2018 by SaturnianBlue

[ProtoJeb21]

28 minutes ago, SaturnianBlue said:

Invest 96L, off the east coast, is becoming more and more likely to form. The computer models are quite divided—the ECMWF predicts a relatively weak storm forming before moving into Canada. GFS... Is rather wild, showing a storm that intensifies into a category 3 hurricane that strikes Maine as a category 1. A scenario vaguely like a stronger version of Arthur in 2014. Hopefully that's not the scenario that plays out.

I ran through all the different models (ECMWF, GFS, etc) for the Western Atlantic, and the results are concerning. The ECMWF, GFS, FV3-GFS, CMC, NAVGEM, and WW3 models all predict Invest-96L becoming a named storm, and all but one suggest it will peak as a Category 1 hurricane at the least. All of those six models show “Future Chris” meandering off the coast of the Carolinas early next week, which is a cause for concern, especially if this thing manages to become a hurricane. 

@Just Jim I take back what I said about having to wait until September to be worried about this year’s hurricane season. 

[ProtoJeb21]

@SaturnianBlue Super Typhoon Maria has maintained its intensity at 155 mph, but is now undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle. I have no idea what’s going to happen next with it. 

[ProtoJeb21]

BREAKING: Tropical Depression Three has formed off of the North Carolina coast, Typhoon Maria appears to be on a weakening trend, and Beryl...has not changed, although there are now Hurricane advisories for parts of the Lesser Antilles. 

TD3 is expected to meander off the SE coast for the next several days and by mid-week be steered away by a high pressure system. Around this time, the NHC expects it to reach hurricane strength (two July hurricanes in a row!) although it could reach this intensity sooner. 

[ProtoJeb21]

Well, Maria sure took its time to undergo its eyewall replacement cycle. It took the storm at least a day and a half to do so, keeping itself at 145 mph, but finally a new eye has formed. Maria is also back up to Super Typhoon status with winds of 150 mph and may become a Category 5 again, due to the enormous thunderstorms surrounding the new eye. It looks like Maria has entered another burst of intensification before it succumbs to less favorable conditions.

[ProtoJeb21]

UPDATE: Super Typhoon Maria is once again a Category 5, with winds of 160 mph and a new minimum pressure of 915 mbar. It is the second-strongest storm of 2018 so far, just barely behind Cyclone Marcus (160 mph; 914 mbar). However, both are significantly less powerful than Hurricanes Irma or Maria, due to their lower wind speeds. A few months ago I mentioned a formula I made to calculate the strength of a tropical cyclone using both its minimum pressure and highest wind speeds. Using the Wind-Pressure Tropical Cyclone Strength (to be renamed “Cyclone Intensity Index”) formula, I was able to get intensity indexes of 156.8 units and 152 units for this year’s Marcus and Maria. For comparison, Hurricane Irma has an index of 172.8 units, and Hurricane Maria is even stronger at 178.5 units. Based on current satellite imagery, it seems like Super Typhoon Maria could be strengthening further, but we’ll just have to wait and see. For now, though, I doubt it will surpass the intentisity of Hurricane Maria. 

[tater]

Yippee! Monsoon season is here in NM. Warm days, pretty storms cooling things off for a few minutes in the afternoon.

[ProtoJeb21]

Maria is still a Category 5 Super Typhoon but could strengthen a tiny bit more before heading into cooler, dryer conditions later tomorrow. 

Beryl is essentially nonexistent now. Its remnants could bring tropical storm conditions to Dominica. 

Chris continues to get better organized, fighting against a weakening cold front that’s creating some wind shear. Its large clump of thunderstorms - which are now glaring up some more - are starting to wrap all the way around the center. Once the front dissipates, Chris will be allowed to organize fully and intensify even further, almost certainly becoming a hurricane. Most models are suggesting its peak intensity to be between 980 and 965 mbar, or a strong Cat 1 to a Cat 2 storm.

[ProtoJeb21]

Chris is now a hurricane, with sustained winds of 85 mph (although the Hurricane Hunters aircraft currently inside the storm has found winds as high as 105 mph). It seems to be rapidly intensifying and seems likely to become a Category 2 or more before weakening and becoming post-tropical. Meanwhile, Taiwan and China are getting clobbered by Category 3 Typhoon Maria, which is likely to cause significant flooding and landslides. 

[0111narwhalz]

It's cloudy and about 95°F. Oh, and things are on fire. Great times for all!

[SaturnianBlue]

For a Category 1 storm, this sure looks more powerful...