tater Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Dunno if this got posted up the thread or not: It's kind of amazing how well they characterized the descent and landing ops over a year ago. It tells us something about their behind the scenes work, and their understanding of the system as a whole. We see stuff like SN9 tipping, or some dumb GSE issue at Boca Chica and it's easy to think they are doing this "seat of the pants," but they are more careful/precise than people often imagine. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RealKerbal3x Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, tater said: Dunno if this got posted up the thread or not: It's kind of amazing how well they characterized the descent and landing ops over a year ago. It tells us something about their behind the scenes work, and their understanding of the system as a whole. Actually, it seems they've further refined descent and landing since that simulation was made. In that we see the flaps moving around quite significantly and the body of the vehicle pitching and yawing slightly, but with SN8 only tiny flutters from the flaps were required to keep it almost perfectly stable. 6 minutes ago, tater said: We see stuff like SN9 tipping, or some dumb GSE issue at Boca Chica and it's easy to think they are doing this "seat of the pants," but they are more careful/precise than people often imagine. Yeah, screw-ups and dumb mistakes will always happen from time to time, no matter how well-oiled the system is. They're not indicative of a deeply flawed operation, despite what anti-SpaceX people will have you believe. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExtremeSquared Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 (edited) Pictures of the failed sn9 stand with weights attached make me think that they knew the ground anchors could fail and had no better option, which in turn makes me think the foundation is fundamentally inadequate and will require a full reconstruction of the high bay. It's really not that heavy when empty though... Anyway, this is all speculation. Edited December 14, 2020 by ExtremeSquared Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nightside Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 34 minutes ago, ExtremeSquared said: Pictures of the failed sn9 stand with weights attached make me think that they knew the ground anchors could fail and had no better option, which in turn makes me think the foundation is fundamentally inadequate and will require a full reconstruction of the high bay. It's really not that heavy when empty though... Anyway, this is all speculation. Th failed stand seems like a dumb mistake. Then you realize this is the same way they are designing the rocket. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RealKerbal3x Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, Nightside said: Th failed stand seems like a dumb mistake. Then you realize this is the same way they are designing the rocket. What do you mean? They're designing the rocket in a dumb way? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nightside Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 hour ago, RealKerbal3x said: What do you mean? They're designing the rocket in a dumb way? Not exactly. But it seems to me that if you can build an orbital rocket, you should be able to design a stand for it that doesn't break. Super fast development has much higher risk of failure. If you are willing to accept the risk, you can go really fast, but you might make some dumb mistakes along the way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tater Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 hour ago, Nightside said: Th failed stand seems like a dumb mistake. Then you realize this is the same way they are designing the rocket. The rocket that just flew and completely validated the skydiver and flip approach? Also, did the stand fail? I have yet to see evidence that this happened. My personal guess is that the floor failed. I think if the stand were to fail, the results would have been more catastrophic, because it would be more likely to cascade as remaining stand components take not just more static load, but dynamic load. It would not take much of a settling of the floor to create a problem with something that heavy/tall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nightside Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 6 minutes ago, tater said: The rocket that just flew and completely validated the skydiver and flip approach? Also, did the stand fail? I have yet to see evidence that this happened. My personal guess is that the floor failed. I think if the stand were to fail, the results would have been more catastrophic, because it would be more likely to cascade as remaining stand components take not just more static load, but dynamic load. It would not take much of a settling of the floor to create a problem with something that heavy/tall. Yes, the progress of the rocket is a clear example of the advantages. Ultimately the floor is part of the stand and they built them both. It's not a simple design challenge, in that terrain, it should probable be built on piles. But a stand should be way easier to build than a rocket! Any Texas oil refinery would have structures with similar requirements. So yeah. If the rocket is a failure because the stand failed, I say that makes them look dumb. BUT, that doesn't matter as long as they don't mind looking dumb. (Elon's twitter output clearly shows he doesn't mind looking dumb.) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tater Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 (edited) 23 minutes ago, Nightside said: So yeah. If the rocket is a failure because the stand failed, I say that makes them look dumb. BUT, that doesn't matter as long as they don't mind looking dumb. (Elon's twitter output clearly shows he doesn't mind looking dumb.) Do you look dumb if you put your rocket assembly area in a hurricane zone, and facility damage sets finishing back by long time periods every time a hurricane happens? Obviously companies look dumb if they don't test stuff in the right way, say integrated software tests. What if they design something in such a way that if an important part breaks they cannot easily get to it to fix it, and it delays the program by many months, or they go ahead and fly without redundancy, instead? Cause now we have NASA, Boeing, and LockMart respectively all also looking pretty dumb. Maybe they're all dumb sometimes in different ways? Edited December 14, 2020 by tater Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RealKerbal3x Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 24 minutes ago, Nightside said: But it seems to me that if you can build an orbital rocket, you should be able to design a stand for it that doesn't break. I'd guess that the stand isn't built on site by SpaceX but rather contracted out to some other company. We see them get trucked in. Though it looks as if they made some modifications to SN9's stand on site so that they could install Raptors, and that may have contributed to the failure. 24 minutes ago, tater said: Also, did the stand fail? I have yet to see evidence that this happened. My personal guess is that the floor failed. I think if the stand were to fail, the results would have been more catastrophic, because it would be more likely to cascade as remaining stand components take not just more static load, but dynamic load. We don't have any information but some are speculating that it was the pipe stands that the stand sits on that failed or fell over. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tater Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 It's also interesting to look at mistakes made that cost the company itself time/money, vs mistakes that cost the company... nothing at all, indeed, they end up making MORE money, because they get paid to do it again, paid to fix it, continue to get annual payments, or even get rewarded for being a great contractor. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCgothic Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Wow, ok: SpaceX is to significantly expand at Vandenberg. Just a month or so ago we thought they were winding down over there! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RealKerbal3x Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, RCgothic said: SpaceX is to significantly expand at Vandenberg. Just a month or so ago we thought they were winding down over there! Wow! Falcon Heavy launches from the West Coast maybe? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tater Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 17 minutes ago, RCgothic said: SpaceX is to significantly expand at Vandenberg. Just a month or so ago we thought they were winding down over there! Well, they have to make the larger fairing, and vertical integration stuff for their AF contract—most launches for the AF are polar anyway, right, or at least high inclination. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vanamonde Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Hey guys, the Starlink discussion has been moved to the Starlink thread. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCgothic Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 SN9 structure is sound enough it can be lifted by the nose cone lift points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCgothic Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Carried out attached to the stand, carried back in without it: i saw somewhere someone claiming it was the pillars that the stands sit on that collapsed, but I haven't seen photos yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExtremeSquared Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 I just assumed anchors pulled out based on the fact there are pictures floating around with rolls of stainless steel chained to it "holding it down". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tater Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 10 minutes ago, ExtremeSquared said: I just assumed anchors pulled out based on the fact there are pictures floating around with rolls of stainless steel chained to it "holding it down". yeah, I saw those pics, too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Delta dart Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 I've looked at it for a while now and the only damage I can see is on the fins so I think Snine will fly. Also I am looking for a diagram of Starship with all the vents marked as I would use it for a detailed model of SN8 that includes functioning vents so I can hook it up to a smoke machine. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tater Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 If they took it out, and put it right back in, then the floor was not the issue. If they didn't redesign the stand, the stand was probably not the issue. They obviously know things we don't, maybe there was an accident (like someone banged into the stand with a lift or something?) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tater Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flavio hc16 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 13 minutes ago, tater said: the speed at which they work get more and more absurd everyday Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YNM Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 21 hours ago, Nightside said: But it seems to me that if you can build an orbital rocket, you should be able to design a stand for it that doesn't break. If you build civil structures with the safety factors of an aircraft or rocket you'd be laughed out. If that's what they did I'd be more surprised it only failed now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RealKerbal3x Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 (edited) Seems like SN9 got a new aft flap after the tipping incident: Disregard this, I can still see damage higher up the flap on other pics. A potential replacement flap did arrive though. Edited December 15, 2020 by RealKerbal3x Don't misinform folks! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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