Chinese Space Program (CNSA) & Ch. commercial launch and discussion

[kerbiloid]

3 hours ago, SunlitZelkova said:

But does it really make a difference if they do *a thing* in 2024 vs. 2029?

But what if earlier the NASA base discovers that there are no lantanoids on the Moon.

Then why make China spend its money on this aimless base?

[SunlitZelkova]

4 hours ago, kerbiloid said:

But what if earlier the NASA base discovers that there are no lantanoids on the Moon.

Then why make China spend its money on this aimless base?

They are probably going to go there anyways. I recall you mentioning that Project Horizon PDFs are gone, I looked at them a long time ago before Artemis and it mentioned a number of military applications for the Moon lol.

[DDE]

@SunlitZelkova et al

 

[wumpus]

8 hours ago, DDE said:

@SunlitZelkova et al

 

Can we have a full blown Sputnik (and Vostok) style American reaction?  Now would be a particularly good time to push science and the rest of STEM in school and industry.

[kerbiloid]

Is it reqular or irregular?

[SunlitZelkova]

8 hours ago, wumpus said:

Can we have a full blown Sputnik (and Vostok) style American reaction?  Now would be a particularly good time to push science and the rest of STEM in school and industry.

I don't think so. The mainstream political narrative is that America is under threat of losing its position as number one in the world, but has not yet lost it. The Sputnik Crisis and the reaction was brought about by the perception the US was behind, so I don't think the US will ever see such a series of events again.

Also, that tweet is in reference to China's nuclear arsenal. Not their space program, which American observers like to describe as being behind the US.

That said, at least in Oregon and Washington there is already a decent campaign to push STEM. And it was already there before "great power competition" became a thing. Not sure about how the rest of the US is doing though.

[SOXBLOX]

9 hours ago, kerbiloid said:

Is it reqular or irregular?

Irregular! Bring back the ablaut!

Plarf, plurf, plorf!

[DDE]

 

11 hours ago, SunlitZelkova said:

I don't think so. The mainstream political narrative is that America is under threat of losing its position as number one in the world, but has not yet lost it. The Sputnik Crisis and the reaction was brought about by the perception the US was behind, so I don't think the US will ever see such a series of events again.

And, more importantly, it's going to take a much greater effort to achieve a broad consensus on the need for confrontation than it did in the 1950s.

The American public spent the last two decades or so flagellating itself for what it does with its dominant position. Being tough on China was seen as a marginal and bigoted view in 2016. Heck, claiming China was somehow responsible for COVID was a deviant position in mid-2020. (None of this contradicts Pivot to Asia beginning under Obama) Granted, right now all of the big agitprop guns are blasting at full power (this is not a discussion of whether the narratives are true, don't even try), but the US is still not Airstrip One, or 1930s Soviet Union - you can't engineer an instant public opinion U-turn.

Spoiler

To elaborate on the Soviet example: within the space of said decade, the Party line at various points was the following (pardon any auto-replacements):

• that non-Bolshevik socialists are servants of the bourgeoisie, e.g. that FDR is a Fascist and the New Deal is meant to rip workers off, and that only Leninism is true emancipation;
• that non-Bolshevik socialists and even all democracies and general are the Soviet Union's faithful allies in the fight against Fascism and pedantsm (the "Popular Front" thesis);
• that the democracies (and non-Bolshevik socialists) have been actively plotting to sic their Fascist and pedant puppets against the Soviet Union, and that Uncle Joe has outfoxed them with the Non-Aggression Pact, preventing a massive war.

So I don't expect this sort of public mobilization to be terribly successful.

Edited August 29, 2021 by DDE

[JoeSchmuckatelli]

23 hours ago, wumpus said:

Can we have a full blown Sputnik (and Vostok) style American reaction?  Now would be a particularly good time to push science and the rest of STEM in school and industry.

We don't need a cold-war-esque response, as that would make a certain segment of the population demand more government involvement and a military styling. 

I'd rather see more visibility and success with the commercial startups - that would showcase 'hey, here's a whole new industry with lots of job prospects' that gets kids excited for going to school for engineering and science degrees - rather than just trying to see what sorority they can get into at Alabama 

[SunlitZelkova]

https://castic.cyscc.org/35/lectures/lecture1.html

Long Lehao, basically modern China's Glushko in terms of position in the space industry (but without the economic trouble and infighting with Chelomei to slow him down), has given a lecture at the 35th National Youth Science and Technology Innovation Competition.

Interesting takeaways-

1. The first prototypes of the YF-130, YF-135, and YF-90 engines for the Long March 9 have been fabricated.

2. First crewed lunar landing date has "officially" been decided as 2030 by CNSA. That is, this is the target date they are working with in development. It should be noted a crewed lunar landing has not yet appeared in any approved economic plans.

[050644zf]

 

[Beccab]

The CCP has officially wiped all Chinese space forums from the internet

This will make tracking their stuff an order of magnitude harder, quoting the manager of Nextspaceflight.com:

"This is going to be a huge problem at Next Spaceflight. 99% of our data on Chinese launches (especially military and commercial) come from Chinese forums and social media. We can still go off of NOTAMs and tracked items in orbit but that doesn't give us reliable dates or tell us when failures occur."

[kerbiloid]

Happily, all this will change when the international crews start flying to the Chinese orbital station and the international Russian-Chinese lunar station is implemented!

This will significantly improve the trust and faith in the Chinese space program achievements!

Edited September 4, 2021 by kerbiloid

[Codraroll]

4 hours ago, kerbiloid said:

Happily, all this will change when the international crews start flying to the Chinese orbital station and the international Russian-Chinese lunar station is implemented!

This will significantly improve the trust and faith in the Chinese space program achievements!

That will be a week to look forward to. I've heard that on the third Tuesday of that week, a certain E. Aaron Presley will appear to demonstrate the newest developments in porcine aerial propulsion as well. I hope I won't be so preoccupied playing Half Life 3 that I miss that press conference.

[JoeSchmuckatelli]

4 hours ago, Codraroll said:

porcine aerial propulsion

You win one internet. 

Well played, sir

[DDE]

On 9/4/2021 at 8:34 AM, Beccab said:

The CCP has officially wiped all Chinese space forums from the internet

Wonder what their official justification was (and the likelihood of there being one is a lot higher than some might think). I remember a fun FSB document along similar lines.

Edited September 5, 2021 by DDE

[JoeSchmuckatelli]

The CCP is currently reining in any industry /tech / media billionaire / expert / superstar who thinks they are special.  

Once re-education and conformity have occurred we will be at the new / old business as usual 

[DDE]

3 hours ago, JoeSchmuckatelli said:

The CCP is currently reining in any industry /tech / media billionaire / expert / superstar who thinks they are special.  

More on point, I have heard of an official program to rein in/eliminate independent commentary on economics and finance.

[JoeSchmuckatelli]

@SunlitZelkova wrote about this a while back - but here is an article about the kilometer + long ship proposed in China

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.livescience.com/amp/mega-spaceship-china-proposal.html

Article also addresses the giant solar array to beam power to the ground. 

 

Sidebar - does CN have its own version of Popular Science? 

[kerbiloid]

4 hours ago, JoeSchmuckatelli said:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.livescience.com/amp/mega-spaceship-china-proposal.html

Quote

If funded, the feasibility study would run for five years and have a budget of 15 million yuan ($2.3 million).

I find this rather realistic.

A Star Destroyer design usually costs two or three millions.

Also, Blender and Gimp can save a little.

[SunlitZelkova]

On 9/5/2021 at 4:11 AM, DDE said:

Wonder what their official justification was (and the likelihood of there being one is a lot higher than some might think). I remember a fun FSB document along similar lines.

It seems to be unknown, but it is possible that some key person related to each of the forums happened to have ties with someone who has been arrested on charges of corruption and thus the forums got deleted. They seem to be being very thorough in this round of the anti-corruption campaign, an actress was arrested for connections to a party official in Hangzhou and they decided to erase every single one of her movies from streaming service providers- regardless of whether there was anything “ideologically unacceptable” in the films or not.

[insert_name]

apparently there was a commsat launch out of Xichang last Saturday, wonder if we will get to see what the booster hit with the aforementioned space forum purge

https://spacenews.com/china-launches-chinasat-9b-broadcast-satellite/

[SunlitZelkova]

On 9/12/2021 at 1:29 PM, insert_name said:

apparently there was a commsat launch out of Xichang last Saturday, wonder if we will get to see what the booster hit with the aforementioned space forum purge

https://spacenews.com/china-launches-chinasat-9b-broadcast-satellite/

It might be available. I'm not sure what "space forums" referred to, assuming it meant only the Chinese equivalents of NASASpaceFlight and so on, there is still Weibo.

Also, thanks to the parafoils attached to the boosters, they don't explode and spew hypergolics to the extent they make the air orange, they do this-

By the way, this is not from Shenzhou 12, it is from a Long March 3B that launched a weathersat awhile back.

[DDE]

55 minutes ago, SunlitZelkova said:

Also, thanks to the parafoils attached to the boosters, they don't explode and spew hypergolics to the extent they make the air orange, they do this-

OK, the Soyuz procedure of "blow it up before it can blow us up" still seems prudent...

[kerbiloid]

How to make the stage reusable.

Spoiler

 

 

Edited September 14, 2021 by kerbiloid