Where will Orion end up going?

[Panel]

NASA has been directionless since Constellation was canceled. This, combined with their low budget, seems to make picking an actual destination for Orion hard to figure out. It doesn't seem like EM-1 is going to be for at least 6 years, so we definitely have time to make a decision.

I think that it will be long behind schedule, and it will eventually be used to service a space station at Earth-Moon L1/2. If (and that's a big if) it does get off the ground on time, it might be used to transfer crew to Mars transfer vehicles. What do you think?

Edited May 25, 2016 by Panel

[Spaceception]

It will go to the Moon, possibly with crew, but congress, and money will guarantee that it never gets to Mars.

[Frozen_Heart]

I suspect that it will slingshot round or maybe orbit the Moon. Then never be used manned again.

[PB666]

Thats a real vote of confidence. 

[Glaran K'erman]

My bet is that by the time we end up going to Mars we will use something entirely different. Orion essentially got it's start back in 2004, just 12 years ago. Most current estimates put boots on Mars around 2030-2035, that is plenty of time to design, propose, build, test, and certify a new program. Not to say they couldn't design it into some sort of Mars mission, I just think we might see something else by the time Mars rolls around. 

[PB666]

If Orion to a future in obscurity then why? took to long to develope, 8 years, or because its too colaborative and not enough focus put on completion and use. 

[Superfluous J]

It'll get cut right as it's about to take form. All the wasted money will be used as an example as to why NASA is inefficient, and they'll lose funding.

Or did you mean what do I want to happen? It'll take people to Mars, of course.

[wumpus]

How about, around the Moon, unmanned?  I expect that it will launch (unmanned) with the first SLS launch.  I'm much less certain about any later launches.  Of course, if something happens with Dragon and the US is stuck with Soyuz launches, I should hope that more effort is taken.  But I suspect Orion is becoming "plan B" and part of the great SLS boondogle for now.

[Bill Phil]

Canceled. It just got farther than every other proposal before it. 

There isn't a strong incentive for future administrations to keep it going. Unlike Apollo.

[kerbiloid]

Unmanned practical demonstrator.

[Nibb31]

Pessimistically, I think it will fly 1 or 2 missions manned. Cancelling it before that would be politically unacceptable.

Optimistically, somebody in the next administration realizes that the only thing SLS/Orion can really be used for is to return to the Moon, and they kick off a new Apollo 2.0.

Orion is a dead weight for Mars.

[Darnok]

Probably will be cancelled and replaced by private intentions or by foreign services.

There is small chance that Orion will be used to resupply Moon space station if this station gets funding and won't be cancelled.

[G'th]

Theres no doubt its going to go the Moon at least twice. Unless NASA ends up being dissolved, it IS going to happen. The incoming administration isn't going to mothball a project like SLS/Orion before it flies. No amount of pessimism is going to change that. Constellation did, sure, but SLS/Orion has made more progress in a shorter amount of time (Partly by cannibalizing Constellation, but even so. If Constellation was run better and the money flowed more readily Orion would already be flying. Manned), so thats not really evidence of what may happen. 

As to where its going to go after that, thats up for debate. It'll likely fly to the ISS several times before its de-orbited. (A bit over the top to use Orion/SLS for ISS purposes, but it'd be great for ringing out any kinks without committing to deep space just yet)

If the Journey to Mars finally gets going, it likely won't ever actually go to Mars unless the ERV ends up not being capable of rendezvous with Orion, as it would indeed be dead weight and ultimately would be better served as a pure taxi to the actual Mars ship. IIRC, Orion was designed to withstand a direct return from Mars so its not like it couldn't go to Mars.

Beyond that it just depends. We've all been waiting for NASA to finally go to Mars, but what comes after that?  Thats the ultimate question.  

[todofwar]

HAVOC, but that's because I'm a little too obsessed with Venus. I think the problem is we have no direction except Mars, and there are many more hurdles than just the ship to Mars to solve. To me HAVOC looks more likely to happen sooner and backers of the project have said it could be a test run for Mars in terms of long distance manned flight. 

[p1t1o]

Putting atomic warheads in space is a political minefield, will space exploration ever have the momentum needed to overcome it [before a better solution is found]? My gut feeling is no.

Edited May 26, 2016 by p1t1o
Apparently I am blind

[Nibb31]

3 minutes ago, todofwar said:

HAVOC, but that's because I'm a little too obsessed with Venus. I think the problem is we have no direction except Mars, and there are many more hurdles than just the ship to Mars to solve. To me HAVOC looks more likely to happen sooner and backers of the project have said it could be a test run for Mars in terms of long distance manned flight. 

What does that have to do with Orion ?

[todofwar]

3 minutes ago, Nibb31 said:

What does that have to do with Orion ?

Service module for HAVOC, same principal as the Mars mission, at least according to wiki orion is meant to work with a habitat unit and possibly other modules such as a lander.

Orion on its own isn't meant for deep space exploration

[Delfinus]

18 minutes ago, p1t1o said:

Putting atomic warheads in space is a political minefield, will space exploration ever have the momentum needed to overcome it [before a better solution is found]? My gut feeling is no.

We're talking about this Orion:

Not this one:

 

 

Anyway, I hope the Orion will be used to basically do "Apollo 2.0", and there's a small chance it might be used on a Duna spacecraft as the Earth re-entry vehicle, but if we are unlucky it'll just do a few unmanned orbital trips around the Mun and be used to service LEO.

[p1t1o]

@DolphinDude3

OOF! Right in the competence...

[11of10]

50 minutes ago, DolphinDude3 said:

Anyway, I hope the Orion will be used to basically do "Apollo 2.0", and there's a small chance it might be used on a Duna spacecraft as the Earth re-entry vehicle, but if we are unlucky it'll just do a few unmanned orbital trips around the Mun and be used to service LEO.

Duna huh? :-D

Anyway, I think it'll fly, maybe unmanned to the Mun, for a test flight, sort of a publicity stunt to say "There, see, we did something!" 

BTW, imagine if they called that space station "Minmus" :-D

[todofwar]

6 minutes ago, 11of10 said:

Duna huh? :-D

Anyway, I think it'll fly, maybe unmanned to the Mun, for a test flight, sort of a publicity stunt to say "There, see, we did something!" 

BTW, imagine if they called that space station "Minmus" :-D

Imagine the forum war if NASA names an EML2 station Minmus. Those excited about the KSP nod against those nitpicking that Minmus isn't at KML2.

[fredinno]

16 hours ago, Panel said:

NASA has been directionless since Constellation was canceled. This, combined with their low budget, seems to make picking an actual destination for Orion hard to figure out. It doesn't seem like EM-1 is going to be for at least 6 years, so we definitely have time to make a decision.

I think that it will be long behind schedule, and it will eventually be used to service a space station at Earth-Moon L1/2. If (and that's a big if) it does get off the ground on time, it might be used to transfer crew to Mars transfer vehicles. What do you think?

Fun Fact: Orion is already long behind schedule. The first flight has been canned from 2016 to 2018, and EM-2 (no longer the 2nd flight) has been moved from 2021 to 2023.

However, Falcon Heavy has had a worse schedule, first intended to launch in 2012, delayed to 2016.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_Heavy#History

A 2 year delay in aerospace is not really that bad. You always have to assume delays.

Also, Congress has HUGE amounts of faith in Orion, about as much faith the media seems to try to POUR into Ghostbusters '16.

I wouldn't consider cancellation a possibilty, after all, even though the Shuttle was pretty much pointless after the Commercial Launch Act, they still kept it up for the vague hope of "Space Station Freedom".

The Shuttle was killed by Columbia. The Shuttles were originally to fly to 2030, and die with the ISS.

 

Fun Fact: Under a "Flexible Path" Scenario, NASA would only get to Mars in the 2060s, or later, (and even that assumes the budget increases at 2.5% inflation, or about average inflation.

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/nrc-says-mars-missions-achievable-but-at-what-cost/

Fun Fact: It'll also probably take SpaceX similar amounts of time to gather the $30 Billion or so that might be needed needed for a MCT Mars Mission (Mars direct would be cheaper, but that isn't on SpaceX's list, apparently.

The same graph also shows L2 Stations are the fastest and cheapest option for the future.

Asteroids are also cheap, but my concern is that they will be able to can it just like they did with Apollo. ("We went there, now what?")

A Lunar Sortie is more expensive, but that way, you need a justification for it beyond "Apollo 2.0 with steroids" ie. A Lunar Base. (likely on the poles, and international in nature.)

 

Thus, my choice would be a Lunar Station + Lunar Sortie, followed by a Lunar Base.

Zubrin would criticize me for the program ending in itself, but unless NASA wanted to go back to the pre-Challenger culture of heavy risk-taking, and jeapordizing the entire program when a mission does go boom, Mars isn't on my NASA Laundry list.

Also, this is relevant.

http://www.thespacereview.com/article/2569/1

15 hours ago, Glaran K'erman said:

My bet is that by the time we end up going to Mars we will use something entirely different. Orion essentially got it's start back in 2004, just 12 years ago. Most current estimates put boots on Mars around 2030-2035, that is plenty of time to design, propose, build, test, and certify a new program. Not to say they couldn't design it into some sort of Mars mission, I just think we might see something else by the time Mars rolls around. 

Really? What makes you think NASA will have the money to design something new to replace Orion?

12 hours ago, Bill Phil said:

Canceled. It just got farther than every other proposal before it. 

There isn't a strong incentive for future administrations to keep it going. Unlike Apollo.

People don't seem to realize Orion is more like the Shuttle 2.0, than anything. Hell, it uses the same hardware!

That being said, the Shuttle was killed by the 7 astronauts that burned up in reentry, and Shuttle Criticisms went up to the nth degree. After all, there is a strong incentive to keep it (and pretty much the majority of manned space) going.

It's called pork. Oh, and national pride. Despite being practically useless, the Shuttle WAS a point of national pride. Thus, why Obama got so much flak when it finally died.

8 hours ago, G'th said:

Theres no doubt its going to go the Moon at least twice. Unless NASA ends up being dissolved, it IS going to happen. The incoming administration isn't going to mothball a project like SLS/Orion before it flies. No amount of pessimism is going to change that. Constellation did, sure, but SLS/Orion has made more progress in a shorter amount of time (Partly by cannibalizing Constellation, but even so. If Constellation was run better and the money flowed more readily Orion would already be flying. Manned), so thats not really evidence of what may happen. 

As to where its going to go after that, thats up for debate. It'll likely fly to the ISS several times before its de-orbited. (A bit over the top to use Orion/SLS for ISS purposes, but it'd be great for ringing out any kinks without committing to deep space just yet)

If the Journey to Mars finally gets going, it likely won't ever actually go to Mars unless the ERV ends up not being capable of rendezvous with Orion, as it would indeed be dead weight and ultimately would be better served as a pure taxi to the actual Mars ship. IIRC, Orion was designed to withstand a direct return from Mars so its not like it couldn't go to Mars.

Beyond that it just depends. We've all been waiting for NASA to finally go to Mars, but what comes after that?  Thats the ultimate question.  

Orion will ONLY fly to the ISS, if

1. They add a LOT of new modules, probably to take them apart later and attach for a new LEO station (unlikely)

2. Commercial Crew is cancelled (Very unlikely)

3. As a test run, after a SLS  Block IB test flight, and before a Manned SLS Lunar Orbital Flight (plausible, but is it necessary?)

3 hours ago, todofwar said:

HAVOC, but that's because I'm a little too obsessed with Venus. I think the problem is we have no direction except Mars, and there are many more hurdles than just the ship to Mars to solve. To me HAVOC looks more likely to happen sooner and backers of the project have said it could be a test run for Mars in terms of long distance manned flight. 

Why would it be a test run to Mars any more than Phobos + Mars Orbit/Flyby + Asteroid ("Flexible Path") or "Moon First"?

Would you ever use a giant airship on Mars? Is that even possible?

3 hours ago, todofwar said:

Service module for HAVOC, same principal as the Mars mission, at least according to wiki orion is meant to work with a habitat unit and possibly other modules such as a lander.

Orion on its own isn't meant for deep space exploration

Still a Dead weight. HAVOC had heat sheilds, which were used to aerobrake at Venus and Earth.

Thus, Orion is pointless on HAVOC, and you can theoretically reuse the HAB module.

 

It's also pointless for a Mars or other interplanetary mission (especially once you have a lunar station). Orion will go to the Moon, because that's what it was intended to do, and that's the only thing it's really great for.

1 hour ago, todofwar said:

Imagine the forum war if NASA names an EML2 station Minmus. Those excited about the KSP nod against those nitpicking that Minmus isn't at KML2.

It's going to be called "Gateway", or at least that's what Boeing wants it to be called. I wouldn't be surprised if something similar happens.

[Glaran K'erman]

@fredinno The Illuminati of course.

Surely I am optimistic, very well aware.

[ValleyTwo]

At best it will be used to go to the Mun..er..Moon.  Maybe.  Right now, as is, from what I understand, a delivery system for orbit.  And that's it.  Now, I understand they planning to add to it but even if they do we have to see who is in charge of the White House in the next four years and what plans they have.

[todofwar]

@fredinno It would be shorter than the Mars trip, but still longer than any other manned mission. I think going to a planet is easier than going to an asteroid just because we already did multiple planets and landed multiple rovers on Mars, but only got to orbit around a smaller body once and didn't manage to stick the landing (not hating on that mission, I thought it was great, just pointing out asteroids aren't necessarily the easy targets people so often think they are). Also, HAVOC involves getting onto a planet (can someone please come up with a name for "landing an airship from orbit"?) and getting back, a complication you can't test run with phobos. 

Not that you would, but yes an airship would work just fine on Mars since the atmosphere is all CO2. The fact that it's so near vacuum isn't so bad, I think weather balloons go to parts of our atmosphere that are thinner but I may be wrong. Still, not a great idea unless it solves the whole landing issue, since you can't use parachutes. 

Full disclosure, Mars gets so much attention that it seems easier to sell Venus missions as somehow helpful for Mars missions. Even if it's something of a stretch.

Edited May 26, 2016 by todofwar