Blue Origin thread.

[tater]

I really, really want to be a Blue Origin fanboy... but they make it so very, very...

 

 

very...

 

 

 

hard.

[CatastrophicFailure]

34 minutes ago, tater said:

really, really want to be a Blue Origin fanboy... but they make it so very, very...

 

A bit too gradatim in the ol’ ferociter, eh? 

[tater]

 

[Treveli]

43 minutes ago, tater said:

 

I was not aware that was going on in my figurative backyard. I'll have to go take a peak.

[StrandedonEarth]

As a buddy of mine liked to say, “Lower it,, paint it black, flames down the side.” But he’s usually talking cars or trucks...

 

[Scotius]

It's sad that biggest piece of news about space company... is a bit about them modifying a bluewater ship. Yes, it implies that BO actually does have ( will have) a rocket to land on said ship - but a photo or two of the spaceship would be much better to see

[SuperFastJellyfish]

2 hours ago, Scotius said:

It's sad that biggest piece of news about space company... is a bit about them modifying a bluewater ship. Yes, it implies that BO actually does have ( will have) a rocket to land on said ship - but a photo or two of the spaceship would be much better to see

I kinda like that it's veiled in secrecy.  When it finally comes to light, it's going to blow all of our nips off just like Christmas morning used to. 

[Guest]

So far I'm not very impressed by Bezos' goal/dream/mission statement of taking all industry off earth and making the planet residentially zoned. I mean sure it would be nice, but as far as it ever in a million years having even the slightest chance of being even remotely likely.... err... I highly doubt it. IMO it's pretty geopolitically & socioeconomically naive/impractical. And his ideas of creating huge rotating orbital habitats is kinda similarly unlikely to become a reality at least in our lifetime. So I can really only focus on the immediate stuff where BlueOrigin is concerned... That being New Glen and possibly providing some lunar surface capability which should be really interesting! That lander though in the background of his presentation... Did it look like flight hardware? It totally looked like a mock-up to me but I duno O_O.

@SuperFastJellyfishIt better! >_<

Edited July 27, 2019 by Guest

[StrandedonEarth]

59 minutes ago, Dale Christopher said:

So far I'm not very impressed by Bezos' goal/dream/mission statement of taking all industry off earth and making the planet residentially zoned.

It could happen eventually. It gets harder and harder to get a new mine started these days due to resistance from environmental groups. At some point the cost of making a mine environmentally friendly enough to get built will likely cost more than mining it robotically from asteroids. And with the current effort to shift towards renewable energy sources (with the requisite battery storage), a large, steady supply of rare earths and platinum group metals would help immensely.

But it requires some entity willing and able to make the necessary and risky very-long-term investment

[Scotius]

2 hours ago, StrandedonEarth said:

It could happen eventually. It gets harder and harder to get a new mine started these days due to resistance from environmental groups. At some point the cost of making a mine environmentally friendly enough to get built will likely cost more than mining it robotically from asteroids. And with the current effort to shift towards renewable energy sources (with the requisite battery storage), a large, steady supply of rare earths and platinum group metals would help immensely.

But it requires some entity willing and able to make the necessary and risky very-long-term investment

This. And for good reason. Every mine is a huge strain on local ecosystem. So is almost any factory - because no matter how good filters are, somethings going to spill outside. If we could take the worst offenders away without losing their industrial capacity, it would pay back well in long run. Maybe not financially - but not chocking on the air we're trying to breathe would be huge in itself

[tater]

Step one is lowering cost of access substantially. Until that happens, we launch satellites, space probes, and typical NASA type missions, nothing more.

[mikegarrison]

On 7/27/2019 at 7:58 AM, tater said:

Step one is lowering cost of access substantially. Until that happens, we launch satellites, space probes, and typical NASA type missions, nothing more.

We have become accustomed to thinking that everything can be made super cheap. Meals for a couple bucks, computers for a few hundred, airplane flights across the ocean for under $1000, etc.

But the energy required to launch 100 kg into orbit is about 5.5 billion Joules at the bare minimum, with perfect efficiency (assuming I didn't mess up on the back of my envelope).

1/2 m v^2 + m g h

v=10,000 m/s, g = 10 m/s^2, h = 500,000 m, m = 100 kg

Now that's only about 1/100 of the total energy used by a US citizen in a year (according to some random source off the Internet), so it's not beyond fathoming that it could eventually become affordable. But it's a big stretch to think it's going to be nearly free.

[tater]

1 hour ago, mikegarrison said:

We have become accustomed to thinking that everything can be made super cheap. Meals for a couple bucks, computers for a few hundred, airplane flights across the ocean for under $1000, etc.

But the energy required to launch 100 kg into orbit is about 5.5 billion Joules at the bare minimum, with perfect efficiency (assuming I didn't mess up on the back of my envelope).

1/2 m v^2 + m g h

v=10,000 m/s, g = 10 m/s^2, h = 500,000 m, m = 100 kg

Now that's only about 1/100 of the total energy used by a US citizen in a year (according to some random source off the Internet), so it's not beyond fathoming that it could eventually become affordable. But it's a big stretch to think it's going to be nearly free.

I never said it had to be nearly free, I said that step 1 is lowering the cost to LEO "substantially."

It's entirely possible to get the price per kg below $100, if the second stage can be easily reused (like aircraft easily, albeit really complex aircraft).

So take 5.5 gigawatts, and look at the cost of electricity. that 5.5 million kW, and electricity is about $0.10/kWh, so we're talking about a $152 worth of energy for that 100kg (assuming my math is similarly not fubar, lol).

No, I don't think we'll get anything like that cheap, but I think that $100/kg or even less is certainly on the table at some point, and I think costs in that regime start to change, well, everything.

[mikegarrison]

15 minutes ago, tater said:

So take 5.5 gigawatts

Watts are power while Joules and kWh are energy. 5.5 billion Joules are about 1500 kWh. So yeah, assuming perfect efficiency and a price of $0.10 per kWh, that would be about $150 of energy.

Edited July 29, 2019 by mikegarrison

[Guest]

One launch system I found pretty cool was one you saw briefly in Ender’s Game (the recent movie. No idea if it’s in the book.) 

it was a launch pad that was surrounded by an array of solar panels located in an area that snowed a lot. The sun provided the energy to convert the snow into fuel for the (I’m assuming reusable) launch vehicle and the cold temps (I also assume) is to make refrigeration of the fuel easier/ and create a situation where the waste heat from the cryo storage is a usable resource to melt the harvested snow etc... 

(that’s what I took from it anyway. It was only on screen for a couple seconds)

a system like that would provide free launches only requiring time to regenerate from natural snowfall and sunlight :3

Edited July 29, 2019 by Guest

[mikegarrison]

3 minutes ago, Dale Christopher said:

One launch system I found pretty cool was one you saw briefly in Ender’s Game (the recent movie. No idea if it’s in the book.) 

it was a launch pad that was surrounded by an array of solar panels located in an area that snowed a lot. The sun provided the energy to convert the snow into fuel for the (I’m assuming reusable) launch vehicle and the cold temps (I also assume) is to make refrigeration of the fuel easier/ and create a situation where the waste heat from the cryo storage is a usable resource to melt the harvested snow etc... 

(that’s what I took from it anyway. It was only on screen for a couple seconds)

a system like that would provide free launches only requiring time to regenerate from natural snowfall and sunlight :3

Solar energy is about 1000 W/m^2. In winter at higher latitudes, it's lower than that. (That's what makes it winter, after all.)

In the winter, at 50 deg latitude, this works out to something like 4 kWh/day/m^2. So with perfect energy conversion and perfect efficiency at reaching orbit, that means to launch 100 kg per day you would need 375 m^2 of solar panels. Once you start adding in inefficiencies and non-massless spacecraft, etc., the area of solar panels needed will grow very, very large.

[Guest]

@mikegarrison

you need to be patient >,> you aren’t going to get a tank full of fuel overnight... (the launcher regenerates over time)

Edited July 29, 2019 by Guest

[mikegarrison]

6 minutes ago, Dale Christopher said:

you aren’t going to get a tank full of fuel overnight

Of course you aren't. There isn't much solar radiation hitting the panels during the nighttime.

[Guest]

>_<

[sh1pman]

15 hours ago, tater said:

I never said it had to be nearly free, I said that step 1 is lowering the cost to LEO "substantially."

It's entirely possible to get the price per kg below $100, if the second stage can be easily reused (like aircraft easily, albeit really complex aircraft).

So take 5.5 gigawatts, and look at the cost of electricity. that 5.5 million kW, and electricity is about $0.10/kWh, so we're talking about a $152 worth of energy for that 100kg (assuming my math is similarly not fubar, lol).

No, I don't think we'll get anything like that cheap, but I think that $100/kg or even less is certainly on the table at some point, and I think costs in that regime start to change, well, everything.

 

15 hours ago, mikegarrison said:

Watts are power while Joules and kWh are energy. 5.5 billion Joules are about 1500 kWh. So yeah, assuming perfect efficiency and a price of $0.10 per kWh, that would be about $150 of energy.

 

It's even better than that. Standard enthalpy (heat) of combustion of methane is -890 kJ/mol. In order to produce 5.5 GJ of thermal energy you need to burn 6200 moles or 138.5 m³ of methane gas. Combined Cycle Gas Turbines (CCGTs) have up to ~60% thermal efficiency, so that volume goes up to 230 m³. Last time I checked, natural gas was about $0.08/m³, so the total cost would be around $18.5 per 100kg to orbit. You just need to figure out how to efficiently convert that electrical energy into orbital velocity. Mass driver maybe?

[kerbiloid]

A remotely laser-powered platform with thermal air nozzles to reach 40 km, then a laser powered spaceplane with hydrogen jet.

Spoiler

And the power of moderators' rage to heat this, unless Bezos is searching advices in this thread.

 

Edited July 30, 2019 by kerbiloid

[magnemoe]

17 hours ago, Dale Christopher said:

One launch system I found pretty cool was one you saw briefly in Ender’s Game (the recent movie. No idea if it’s in the book.) 

it was a launch pad that was surrounded by an array of solar panels located in an area that snowed a lot. The sun provided the energy to convert the snow into fuel for the (I’m assuming reusable) launch vehicle and the cold temps (I also assume) is to make refrigeration of the fuel easier/ and create a situation where the waste heat from the cryo storage is a usable resource to melt the harvested snow etc... 

(that’s what I took from it anyway. It was only on screen for a couple seconds)

a system like that would provide free launches only requiring time to regenerate from natural snowfall and sunlight :3

Using solar to make hydrogen makes sense, however it would be smarter to make the hydrogen during overload time on the grind then power is very cheap. 
However this probably is an military installation there cost is less relevant, that its independent might well be worth more. 
One liter of diesel at an forward fire base in Afghanistan is way higher than at your pump, you need an convoy with air cover to get it trough. 
 

[tater]

https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-announces-us-industry-partnerships-to-advance-moon-mars-technology

Quote

Blue Origin of Kent, Washington, will collaborate with NASA’s Johnson Space Center in Houston and Goddard to mature a navigation and guidance system for safe and precise landing at a range of locations on the Moon.

 

Quote

Blue Origin will partner with Glenn and Johnson to mature a fuel cell power system for the company’s Blue Moon lander. The system could provide uninterrupted power during the lunar night, which lasts for about two weeks in most locations.

 

Quote

Blue Origin, Marshall and Langley will evaluate and mature high-temperature materials for liquid rocket engine nozzles that could be used on lunar landers.

 

[Scotius]

Fuel cells able to generate current for two weeks straight? I predict a lot of problems with that - or with making them small\light enough.

[mikegarrison]

1 hour ago, Scotius said:

Fuel cells able to generate current for two weeks straight? I predict a lot of problems with that - or with making them small\light enough.

Why? STS-80 lasted for 17 days in orbit. The Space Shuttle got all its electricity from fuel cells, and those were fuel cells with technology from at least 40 years ago.