Blue Origin thread.

[GuessingEveryDay]

https://x.com/DJSnM/status/1878470474822480233

[tater]

LOL

[darthgently]

2 hours ago, tater said:

The coverage was annoying, I kept muting it. From what I have read this morning and what I saw on X last night they did not discuss what any of the issues actually were. Boo.

I’m not saying that showmanship is what space endeavor should be about but the hype along with timing in the middle of the night combined with poor PR comms and stringing ppl along with multiple opaque count down restarts on a night before a workday all combined to more disappointment than necessary for those who took time to try and watch live.  The timing may have been restricted for solid reasons but that makes the handling of messaging even more important.  And remember that investors definitely care about messaging and PR; I’m not just talking about general public opinion.  Putting on a good show does matter and SpaceX has a better grip on this, imo.

I’m a little confused how the icing didn’t show up in wet dress.  

Probably different dewpoint and humidity but I’d think the math for the icing wouldn’t be hard to project from the wet dress measurements if they monitored vent temps and ambient humidity and dewpoint etc at wet dress and did the math for conditions during countdown.

I’m assuming water ice at the vent opening as any other seems like it would have responded to multiple melting attempts.  I would think they wouldn’t be venting hydrogen or methane and oxygen from the same vent for flame control reasons, but I suppose if methane and hydrogen were vented from same lines or vent the gaseous hydrogen could freeze the methane I suppose.  But given those are used on different stages it doesn’t seem practical to share venting.  <shrug>

So I’m guessing water vapor at the outlet, or much less likely, water or other contamination in the liquid.  I’m just spinning my gears here I suppose because last night was not fun.

[tater]

Showmanship is not at all required—but if you are gong to do a livestream, have some attention to detail.

For one, as a buddy of mine texted me, "...the real problem is Ariane (Cornell), and the fact that they recruited her from the paint department at Home Depot."

I replied that I would in fact rather listen to paint dry than listen to her, hence me muting BO streams.

Like it or not, SpaceX has set the streaming standard at this point—in part because they fly so much it's minimalist. I never used to watch the "patter" SpaceX streams back in the day. They used to have 2 streams per launch as you may recall. One was 1-2 engineers, with the employees cheering in the background, the second was the bare min host call outs, and otherwise just the launch comms.

Other companies like ULA, Rocket Lab, etc also have decent streams, even if long/tedious in some cases. At the very least you hear the actual mission control comms at points, and they tend to communicate what issues they are actually working. If they want you to watch for 3 hours, they need to discuss the problems that caused you to be there for 3 hours vs 30 min.

[darthgently]

35 minutes ago, tater said:

 

Showmanship is not at all required—but if you are gong to do a livestream, have some attention to detail.

 

Let me specify what I meant by showmanship exactl.  Mostly the managing of expectations and not exhausting people’s dopamine and cortisol circuits by keeping them in the loop.

Musk does this naturally by saying the right things at the right times.  He clearly states the grand goals overall, the modest goals of the test, the typically harsh odds of success/failure, then in P T Barnham fashion declares, “Success possible, excitement guaranteed!”.  The SpaceX team follows this tone during the stream and it just works.

BO did a great job of communicating the grand goals, and an ok job of most everything else, but failed at managing expectations and keeping ppl in the loop and exhausted the “audience”.

It never hurts to put on a good reality-based show is my only point

[Pthigrivi]

1 hour ago, tater said:

Like it or not, SpaceX has set the streaming standard at this point—in part because they fly so much it's minimalist. I never used to watch the "patter" SpaceX streams back in the day. They used to have 2 streams per launch as you may recall. One was 1-2 engineers, with the employees cheering in the background, the second was the bare min host call outs, and otherwise just the launch comms.

I only watch the starship streams these days and they really are a blast. Even my wife loves them and she has very little interest in space or rocketry. 

[tater]

Until they do something novel, blue origin is going to be a little bit behind the eight ball on streaming viewership. People expect rocket boosters to land these days so it’s not as interesting. SpaceX has made it far too routine.

[Nuke]

6 hours ago, GuessingEveryDay said:

https://x.com/DJSnM/status/1878470474822480233

c'mon baby light my fire.

 

i feel like i used that doors reference before.

[darthgently]

Put on some coffee

It’s El Ka-BONG time 

 

To be fair, they may just be testing their fix

Edited yesterday at 10:11 PM by darthgently

[JoeSchmuckatelli]

2 hours ago, darthgently said:

may just be testing their fix

Well, the infographic on the stream says a window opens at 1am.

(that's just info, not necessarily a prediction of launch) 

Nothing about the sea state. 

Nothing for nothing, but the Atlantic in winter isn't exactly known for being as calm as, say, the Gulf of (Columbus?) 

[tater]

 

[JoeSchmuckatelli]

'This morning’s scrub was due to ice forming in a purge line on an auxiliary power unit that powers some of our hydraulic systems'

From @tater's post above. 

Is this an uncommon or predictable thing (unique to this rocket, something all rockets have to deal with)? 

Anyone know? 

[tater]

11 minutes ago, JoeSchmuckatelli said:

Is this an uncommon or predictable thing (unique to this rocket, something all rockets have to deal with)? 

This particular issue, I have no idea—but GSE problems get worked out by tanking up vehicles, so the more they WDR/static fire/fly, the more they will find.

[darthgently]

18 minutes ago, JoeSchmuckatelli said:

'This morning’s scrub was due to ice forming in a purge line on an auxiliary power unit that powers some of our hydraulic systems'

From @tater's post above. 

Is this an uncommon or predictable thing (unique to this rocket, something all rockets have to deal with)? 

Anyone know? 

Am I misremembering that SpaceX had a similar issue in hydraulic lines that delayed a launch before they went electric?  Not sure, it seems familiar

[JoeSchmuckatelli]

7 minutes ago, darthgently said:

Am I misremembering that SpaceX had a similar issue in hydraulic lines that delayed a launch before they went electric?  Not sure, it seems familiar

Kind of why I'm asking... Vague memory of ice / water etc problems related to Boeing or ULA or SX - but I don't remember any of it well enough to know if it's a similar issue or common. 

[tater]

 

[darthgently]

10 hours ago, JoeSchmuckatelli said:

Kind of why I'm asking... Vague memory of ice / water etc problems related to Boeing or ULA or SX - but I don't remember any of it well enough to know if it's a similar issue or common. 

I thought I remembered a Starship issue from more recently, like booster 8?  but this is from grok:

Spoiler

Yes, SpaceX did encounter issues with water ice in the hydraulic lines of their rocket engines before transitioning to electric gimbal control systems. The water ice formation was due to the condensation and freezing of moisture in the hydraulic fluid, particularly under the extreme cold conditions experienced during high-altitude flights. This issue was a significant factor in their decision to move towards electric systems, which eliminated the problems associated with hydraulic fluids.

This issue was primarily associated with the **Falcon 9**. The transition from hydraulic to electric gimbaling for the Falcon 9's Merlin engines happened around **2012-2013**.

 

[Deddly]

AI is great for finding things but only if you also double-check all the information it gives you. An AI quote with no reference has no value.

[GuessingEveryDay]

3 hours ago, darthgently said:

I thought I remembered a Starship issue from more recently, like booster 8?  but this is from grok:

  Reveal hidden contents

Yes, SpaceX did encounter issues with water ice in the hydraulic lines of their rocket engines before transitioning to electric gimbal control systems. The water ice formation was due to the condensation and freezing of moisture in the hydraulic fluid, particularly under the extreme cold conditions experienced during high-altitude flights. This issue was a significant factor in their decision to move towards electric systems, which eliminated the problems associated with hydraulic fluids.

This issue was primarily associated with the **Falcon 9**. The transition from hydraulic to electric gimbaling for the Falcon 9's Merlin engines happened around **2012-2013**.

 

Only thing I can remember was some water vapor freezing in Superheavy after hotstaging and then slamming into the bottom of the tank and shredding the fuel lines to the 13 middle engines.

Not the same thing that's happening with BONG though.

[darthgently]

21 minutes ago, Deddly said:

AI is great for finding things but only if you also double-check all the information it gives you. An AI quote with no reference has no value.

This.  LLMs are currently great as a sounding board, brainstorming, and woolgathering.  But are definitely not an authoritative source for unquestionable answers just as the raw notes from a human brainstorming session are not a good final product

[darthgently]

1 hour ago, Deddly said:

AI is great for finding things but only if you also double-check all the information it gives you. An AI quote with no reference has no value.

I am really trying to find some cites.  What I’m remembering is that the first flight of Starship + booster back in April ‘23 led to upgrading from hydraulic TVC to electric and one of the theories for the hydraulic failure was ice in the line but I can’t find a reference to that now.  It was probably a suggested theory I read somewhere

Edited 7 hours ago by darthgently

[GuessingEveryDay]

17 minutes ago, darthgently said:

I am really trying to find some cites.  What I’m remembering is that the first flight of Starship + booster back in April ‘23 led to upgrading from hydraulic TVC to electric and one of the theories for the hydraulic failure was ice in the line but I can’t find a reference to that now.  It was probably a suggested theory I read somewhere

I think that was for the gridfins though. A few grid fins got stuck, but the booster was slow enough by then, that there was no real impact. However, they already switched over to using electric motors by the next launch.

[Deddly]

One of the first Block 5 flights failed due to ice forming in the new extra-cold cryogenic O2 tank. That's all I remember about ice but I haven't watched all the launches.

[darthgently]

39 minutes ago, GuessingEveryDay said:

Only thing I can remember was some water vapor freezing in Superheavy after hotstaging and then slamming into the bottom of the tank and shredding the fuel lines to the 13 middle engines.

Not the same thing that's happening with BONG though.

That is not what I was thinking of.  Was definitely hydraulic system related.  Probably conflating with valve icing or stuck valve on some other rocket

[Deddly]

SES-8 mission?

Quote

on 29 September 2013, SpaceX was unsuccessful in reigniting the second stage Merlin 1D vacuum engine once the rocket had deployed its primary payload (CASSIOPE) and all of its nanosat secondary payloads.[12] The restart failure was determined to be frozen igniter fluid lines in the second-stage Merlin 1D engine. A minor redesign was done to address the problem by adding additional insulation to the lines.[2]

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/SES-8