Chinese Space Program (CNSA) & Ch. commercial launch and discussion

[kerbiloid]

3 hours ago, SunlitZelkova said:

A similar thing happened with Buran. There was no reason why they should have built MTKVP over the design with the same aerodynamic configuration as the Americans.

The reason was that the then-future Buran design was changed after 8 years of development.

[DDE]

3 hours ago, SunlitZelkova said:

A similar thing happened with Buran. There was no reason why they should have built MTKVP over the design with the same aerodynamic configuration as the Americans.

MTKVP was certainly a weird design, but it had the advantage of vertical stacking.

This even left open the possibility of an MTKVP-N-1.

[SunlitZelkova]

My thing with MTKVP was more about how the STS/Buran shape had already clearly been proven by the American decision to use the STS design that was built vs. the unknowns with the MTKVP.

If I am incorrect on that history though I retract that comparison. I still retain my view in regards to the copy/similar configuration of Hyperbola III.

[DDE]

2 hours ago, SunlitZelkova said:

My thing with MTKVP was more about how the STS/Buran shape had already clearly been proven by the American decision to use the STS design that was built vs. the unknowns with the MTKVP.

They also had Lozino-Lozinskyi's BOR airframe. Not sure why they dismissed that, but for a while in US imagination the Buran was a mega-BOR called Uragan.

I imagine a lot of people were disappointed when they saw the real Шаттл 

[050644zf]

New photos from Zhurong Mars Rover

Credit: CNSA

 

Last one is captured by a camera module dropped by Zhurong Rover

Edited June 11, 2021 by 050644zf

[Beccab]

That last pic is so cool!

[Scotius]

That area looks pretty flat. No big boulders, ravines or hills. Good place to land big rocket on

[JoeSchmuckatelli]

9 hours ago, 050644zf said:

New photos from Zhurong Mars Rover

 

Last one is captured by a camera module dropped by Zhurong Rover

Think the 'Jonny 5' / WALL-E' look is intentional? 

[SunlitZelkova]

Shenzhou 12 has rolled out-

Spoiler

Launch is on June 17th, with the astronauts staying for about three months.

Tianzhou-3 launch is planned for September, and Shenzhou-13 will be in October.

The commander of Shenzhou 12 is Nie Haisheng. He flew on Shenzhou 6 and Shenzhou 10, the latter of which was the second mission to Tiangong-1.

For the other two crew members, Deng Qingming and Ye Guangfu, it will be their first spaceflight.

[SunlitZelkova]

The celebratory cake for the successful deployment of Zhurong.

This is the operational profile for a space junk clearing spacecraft. It would catch it with a net, tow it to a higher orbit, release it in the net, and then continue. It would carry multiple nets, and of course could either deorbit it deposit itself into the junk orbit before running out of nets.

Spoiler

They are apparently testing the concept on the ground-

Spoiler

Meanwhile, several new space projects have been approved by the CPC and funded-

Note- This list includes comments by me, not found in the press release

1. Asteroid sample return + comet exploration probe will launch in 2025

2. The Mars sample return mission, referred to as Tianwen-2 by some Chinese space fans, will launch "about 2030". The Chinese language press release has the launch in 2028. Currently planning around the two launch profile on Long March 3 and Long March 5, but a single launch on Long March 9 is still on the table

3. A Jupiter exploration mission (from the known studied mission profiles, either Ganymede, Callisto, or Io orbiter) will launch in 2029 (according to the Chinese language press release, the English one says "about 2030")

4. Chang'e 6 will launch "within the next five years". It will be a sample return from the south pole of the Moon, exact location TBD. The spacecraft itself was the backup for Chang'e 5

5. Chang'e 7 will launch "within the next five years". It is a lunar south pole exploration mission akin to Chang'e 4, but is a completely new spacecraft. It will consist of an orbiter, lander, rover, and "mini-flying probe". How the flyer will work is unclear at the moment

6. Development of heavy lift launch vehicles has been announced. Approval for Long March 9 is known but this implies the "921 rocket" which is intended for use for launching the Next-Generation Crewed Spacecraft to the Moon has been approved

7. "Reusable space transportation systems" are under development. What this refers to is unclear. It is known that China has an X-37B equivalent, but that is a military project unrelated to CNSA. The Next Generation Crewed Spacecraft features limited reuse like Orion (in contrast to Shenzhou, which is completely single use), but as to what other systems are under development is unknown. A mission patch for an upcoming Long March 8R launch appeared in online China space watcher circles a couple of days ago showing a spaceplane, but it appears to be the same one already launched and not a civilian project

8. Satellite internet was mentioned.

English language article about the press release- http://en.people.cn/n3/2021/0613/c90000-9860639.html

This is very exciting, as the MSR mission is now confirmed!

The disturbing thing (for NASA) though is that the current architecture involves launching both the return spacecraft and lander/sample gatherer in the same launch window, and then leaving (a rather "fast" profile compared with the existing NASA-ESA architecture). That would potentially mean China could lay claim to the first sample returned from Mars just weeks ahead of NASA, depending on how the schedule works (both would/will return in 2031).

The approval of Long March 9 was known through a National People's Congress document, but the fact that state media is now indirectly mentioning it- and CNSA themselves, at least indirectly- is a very good sign.

Unfortunately, there is still no official word on the crewed lunar program apart from the joint lunar base agreement with Russia.

[JoeSchmuckatelli]

1 hour ago, SunlitZelkova said:

That would potentially mean China could lay claim to the first sample returned from Mars

That is the kind of 'coup' that would appeal to someone trying to establish themselves as a top-tier space exploration / exploitation nation.  To those who risk go the rewards.

What would be funny is if Elon does it before either.

[Scotius]

That's a very ambitious plan Sample return missions are always exciting.

Unfortunately, long experience tells me to expect numerous delays

[kerbiloid]

A good plan is a half of success.

A half.

[YNM]

11 hours ago, SunlitZelkova said:

The disturbing thing (for NASA) though is that the current architecture involves launching both the return spacecraft and lander/sample gatherer in the same launch window, and then leaving (a rather "fast" profile compared with the existing NASA-ESA architecture). That would potentially mean China could lay claim to the first sample returned from Mars just weeks ahead of NASA, depending on how the schedule works (both would/will return in 2031).

Interestingly something similar happened with Mariner 9 and Mars 2/3... albeit wrt reaching Mars.

That's why it's best to take a look at the stuff no one is looking at yet.

In any case, the more samples the merrier. If you want to terraform stuff you better have soil samples.

[SunlitZelkova]

13 hours ago, Scotius said:

That's a very ambitious plan Sample return missions are always exciting.

Unfortunately, long experience tells me to expect numerous delays

The new missions are challenging, but going off of China's previous record it shouldn't be too bad.

Tianwen-1 began in 2011 and was approved by the government in 2016, and launched in 2020. That was all to the original schedule.

On the other hand, Chang'e 5 was late by three years for launch, but that was because of a problem with the Long March 5, unrelated to the spacecraft. Chang'e 4 was delayed due to design changes, but these were inherent to the lunar program (related to changing mission objectives). Delays could be expected for Chang'e 7 depending on how the lunar program changes in response to Artemis. The lunar program is being carried out in support of the goal of a lunar base, and therefore each mission's objective is subject to that goal. But the other robotic missions are pretty straight forward. I.e., they are collecting samples to collect samples, not collecting samples to aid in a Mars base. So there shouldn't be such delays with changing mission objectives.

The crewed program doesn't have a good history though. The original goal was a crewed launch in 1999, but that slipped to 2003. But that was in the 90s, when China was a rather undeveloped country. In addition as tensions with the West rise over the decade, China will need some form of counter to Artemis- not for international relations, but for the domestic audience, especially in the event of economic trouble in China. This could place higher priority on the crewed space program, and unlike the 90s China now has the advanced industry required to meet ambitious timelines for space projects.

We will have to wait and see what happens.

10 hours ago, YNM said:

Interestingly something similar happened with Mariner 9 and Mars 2/3... albeit wrt reaching Mars.

That's why it's best to take a look at the stuff no one is looking at yet.

In any case, the more samples the merrier. If you want to terraform stuff you better have soil samples.

The issue with the stuff that no one is looking at is probably that the general public (the target audience for the propaganda aspect of space programs) likely don't care about them.

I think rather than pure soft power, MSR in China is probably going to turn into an object of nationalism. "First sample return from Phobos" sounds cool to decent people, but for the hard headed types who drape flags over their backs and walk through the street screaming "Zhongguo" or "USA"- who the government intends to target with the propaganda aspect of the mission- it is, in their view, probably lame.

IMO, all of that is incredibly depressing. But if gets spacecraft funded, I personally don't think it matters.

[050644zf]

 

[DDE]

 

Edited June 16, 2021 by DDE

[tater]

They actually have live coverage in English.

Launch is in a little over 3 hours:

 

[qq983978247]

On 6/14/2021 at 8:27 AM, SunlitZelkova said:

7. "Reusable space transportation systems" are under development. What this refers to is unclear. It is known that China has an X-37B equivalent, but that is a military project unrelated to CNSA. The Next Generation Crewed Spacecraft features limited reuse like Orion (in contrast to Shenzhou, which is completely single use), but as to what other systems are under development is unknown. A mission patch for an upcoming Long March 8R launch appeared in online China space watcher circles a couple of days ago showing a spaceplane, but it appears to be the same one already launched and not a civilian project

“腾云工程”

https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1PA411T7Bm?from=search&seid=7790617445327492710

[SunlitZelkova]

4 hours ago, qq983978247 said:

“腾云工程”

https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1PA411T7Bm?from=search&seid=7790617445327492710

Thanks!

So one of the reusable spacecraft projects is Tengyun, a two-stage to orbit spaceplane being developed by CASIC (China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation).

Some info on it and other Chinese spaceplane projects in English here- https://china-aerospace.blog/2020/05/11/chinas-spaceplane-projects-past-present-and-future/

A few photos from the launch. It is China's first crewed launch in five years-

Spoiler

Images and video of the crew during training was released. In it, the training mockup for the space station has been revealed, which features both Wentian and Mengtian modules-

[tater]

Not a great place to stand:

 

[kerbiloid]

Is he aware that UDMH is more toxic than NTO?

[southernplain]

Big yikes to be that close to UDMH/NTO hypergols. Very embarrassing to drop spent hypergolic stages over populated areas.

[JoeSchmuckatelli]

There is no PR problem. 

Everything is fine. 

Everything is always fine. 

 

 

 

Right? 

[magnemoe]

On 5/31/2021 at 4:08 PM, kerbiloid said:

Happily, they understand the problem.

https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=&sl=zh-CN&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.xinhuanet.com%2Fpolitics%2F2021-05%2F31%2Fc_1127513067.htm

The real issue is that if you do pre modern century agriculture more kids  is more field hands. 
If you are middle class and live in an city they are very expensive as you need an larger apartment and support the kids in an social acceptable fashion to remain middle class. 
Or how keeping up with the Joneses resolved the population boom but cause more problems down the line. 
More wealth just move it into the keeping up with the Kardashians range but yes if you are very wealthy kids is less of an burden. 
I recommend radical life extension as an solution as I'm getting old