Dissolving the fermi paradoxon

[hendrack]

According to a recently published paper it is probable we are alone in our Milky Way (39%) and even alone in the observable universe (58%).  To get this numbers they used probability mathematics with the parameters of the Drake equasion.

They acknowledge this isn't the ultimate answer though, just the probability with the current state of what we know and see in the universe.

 

https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.02404

PDF https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404

[Nibb31]

The values entered into the Drake equation are based on guesswork. Therefore any calculations using those values are about as useful as rolling a dice.

[p1t1o]

1 hour ago, hendrack said:

...the current state of what we know and see in the universe.

This is the kicker - what we *know* about the prevalence of extraterrestrial beings can be written down on a very small piece of paper.

Edited August 7, 2018 by p1t1o

[YNM]

3 hours ago, hendrack said:

they used probability mathematics with the parameters of the Drake equation.

About as useful as being ordered to design a spacecraft without knowing what will actually be put in.

[Scotius]

We know that number of intelligent species in Universe is 0 < 1. Where is the upper limit? In infinite Universe it might be infinite too

[magnemoe]

4 hours ago, Nibb31 said:

The values entered into the Drake equation are based on guesswork. Therefore any calculations using those values are about as useful as rolling a dice.

This, we know the numbers of stars pretty well, we know that its plenty of planets, earth like ones in habitable zones are pretty rare but we found some, its likely to be observational bias as they are harder to spot than smaller ones, mars sized ones are even rarer. 
Now we get into the total randomness, we have no idea how hard it is to get life, advanced life or intelligence. 
 

[Shpaget]

7 hours ago, hendrack said:

probable we are alone in our Milky Way (39%) and even alone in the observable universe (58%).

This doesn't make sense. Probability of being alone in the observable universe can not be lower than being alone in our galaxy.

 

[Bill Phil]

The Fermi Paradox is more of a question than a paradox. "Where are all the aliens?" The answer to that is impossible to know with current evidence and understanding. We've only been observing the skies with radio telescopes for a short while on galactic timescales. We've only been broadcasting for less than a century, maybe a century if you want to push it. So there's a good chance there's nothing within 50 lightyears, assuming they could detect our signals and then responded, assuming we could detect their signals. Anything beyond that distance we have no evidence or reason to believe anything but "we have no idea."

Of course, there are some who believe we've already been visited by aliens, and/or are currently being visited by aliens. 

[cubinator]

1 hour ago, Bill Phil said:

Of course, there are some who believe we've already been visited by aliens, and/or are currently being visited by aliens. 

Preposterous! We would never waste our time visiting Earth!

[kerbiloid]

Why not?

An alien civilization can use humans as a very cheap ready-to-use highly adaptive hi-end element of fauna on other planets.
From time to time visiting Earth and taking a required amount, like Earth is an incubator.

Like we do this in Spore. "To stabilize the biosphere, bring 3 species."
Then we fly to a custom planet, kidnap several things with a ray and bring them to the planet. 

If presume the life is rare but there's at least one superciv except ours, maybe some planets in galaxy are seeded by the alien civ with humans. Just because of no choice.
Since paleokidnapping till modern days.
Unlikely hi-tech, as they are by design a part of fauna, so tribal-medieval.

Thus, maybe space-opera fantasy is the most realistic genre of sci-fi.

 

Spore is a rather great game, it taught me a lot...

Edited August 8, 2018 by kerbiloid

[Gargamel]

11 hours ago, cubinator said:

Preposterous! We would never waste our time visiting Earth!

Ahh but they would.    The relationship between the Earth, Moon, and Sun is pretty unique, at least within our solar system. 

We have total solar eclipses, but of the type that the Moon perfectly covers the sun, not more.    Other planet/moon combinations have eclipses, but I don't believe any have this near perfect arrangement.  We're also in a time frame where this occurs, a long time ago the moon was too close, in the future it will be too far away. 

This presents a reason for aliens to visit earth.   Tourism.   We might have one of the few places in the galaxy where you can observe an eclipse as such.  So aliens would come to Earth to watch the solar eclipses from a planets surface. 

And what do drunk college kids do on vacation?  They torment the locals.    Hence all these pointless unexplainable abduction stories we hear about. 

[magnemoe]

8 minutes ago, Gargamel said:

Ahh but they would.    The relationship between the Earth, Moon, and Sun is pretty unique, at least within our solar system. 

We have total solar eclipses, but of the type that the Moon perfectly covers the sun, not more.    Other planet/moon combinations have eclipses, but I don't believe any have this near perfect arrangement.  We're also in a time frame where this occurs, a long time ago the moon was too close, in the future it will be too far away. 

This presents a reason for aliens to visit earth.   Tourism.   We might have one of the few places in the galaxy where you can observe an eclipse as such.  So aliens would come to Earth to watch the solar eclipses from a planets surface. 

And what do drunk college kids do on vacation?  They torment the locals.    Hence all these pointless unexplainable abduction stories we hear about. 

Yes the total solar eclipses is cool, but its an decent chance you can get it other places too and more often, how equal in size Moon and sun look is the best part. 
Still humans would be the most interesting thing about earth. We are probably the only civilization who are less than 100 year after first spaceflight. Even less than 1000 after start of industrialization. 

[kerbiloid]

So, to dissolve the Fermi paradoxon we should first ask ourselves: how far are we visible?

[Shpaget]

21 minutes ago, kerbiloid said:

So, to dissolve the Fermi paradoxon we should first ask ourselves: how far are we visible?

To answer that question first we need the answer to: "How big is their telescope?".

In any case, first radio transmissions were done in 1880's, so best case scenario <140 ly. Which is pretty much equal to bupkis.

[p1t1o]

It is my opinion that civilisations, technological ones at least, are like sparks on any timescale relevant to galactic distances. There might be millions of them over time, in any given region, but because they go POOF! and are gone in an instant, the liklihood of two sparks bursting to life at the exact right moment AND within reasonable comms range is negligible.

[James Kerman]

9 minutes ago, p1t1o said:

There might be millions of them over time, in any given region, but because they go POOF! and are gone in an instant, the liklihood of two sparks bursting to life at the exact right moment AND within reasonable comms range is negligible.

Hopefully they will leave evidence of their existence (as hopefully will we) so that whichever species spreads out into the universe can get a better approximation than the Fermi paradox.

[kerbiloid]

59 minutes ago, Shpaget said:

To answer that question first we need the answer to: "How big is their telescope?".

I mean, from what distance can we discover the Earth as an exoplanet if using existing or planned exoplanet research tools.

(Sun, orbit, Moon, etc are the same)

40 minutes ago, James Kerman said:

leave evidence of their existence (as hopefully will we)

We try the best.

Spoiler

 

 

Edited August 8, 2018 by kerbiloid

[magnemoe]

20 minutes ago, p1t1o said:

It is my opinion that civilisations, technological ones at least, are like sparks on any timescale relevant to galactic distances. There might be millions of them over time, in any given region, but because they go POOF! and are gone in an instant, the liklihood of two sparks bursting to life at the exact right moment AND within reasonable comms range is negligible.

Why should they be gone in an instant? Forget the scare of the decade stuff who is also very humans focused anyway. 
Aliens might well have other issues, Moth in the gods eye is one. 
Musk is correct in that we need to become an multi planet species. This can easy be easier for some with two planets with life. 

It might be some late great filter, something we don't know about. But if its something who kills of an planet the ones who manages to set up an colony will be very interested in spreading out hard. Yes radio was the original outdated version, an more modern version who the entire galaxy is not colonized. 
 

[Xd the great]

What if most life forms are 4D?

Undetectable by us?

[p1t1o]

21 minutes ago, magnemoe said:

Why should they be gone in an instant? Forget the scare of the decade stuff who is also very humans focused anyway. 
Aliens might well have other issues, Moth in the gods eye is one. 
Musk is correct in that we need to become an multi planet species. This can easy be easier for some with two planets with life. 

It might be some late great filter, something we don't know about. But if its something who kills of an planet the ones who manages to set up an colony will be very interested in spreading out hard. Yes radio was the original outdated version, an more modern version who the entire galaxy is not colonized. 
 

What I mean is, even 100k years is but a moment on these scales of distance+time. And we've only been technological for what? 5000years? Depending on your definition it could be as low as 2-500years.

Theres no reason to assume that the natural state of a civilisation is eternal existence, we only know of one technological civ so far and we are already losing control of our environment, can we keep this up for another ten thousand years? A hundred?

If a civ on one planet can die, a civ on two or more can as well, it just might take longer. The idea that humanity will last forever and conquer the universe is laughably arrogant if you ask me, but there is time enough for a lot of stuff.

Edited August 8, 2018 by p1t1o

[kerbiloid]

Why so pessimistically.

While a civilization lives on a planet, nobody cares about them unless this place gets required for, say, a galactic highway.
A monkey more, a monkey less...
Go there for safari _Predator, build there your warehouses or beacons _{Great Pyramids}, take them as pets to your mansion, use their brains as chip controllers, they are for free.

Preliminary 4 mln years the future sapients species jumps from branch to branch, eats bananas and throws the skins and other caca into each other.
Until something drops them on ground. (Or extracts from water if they are fishes)

First 200 000 years of its existence, the civilization just eats and (vice versa). 
From time to time makes funny pictures.

Then something happens, they start crafting. Their skills raise, their settlements grow, their social relations become more and more complex.
Role of intelliect raises, a smart person can now get money for calculating, writing letters, making contracts, snitching, so on.
Role of knowledge and experience keeps drastically increasing.
This lasts for 10 000 years more.

Then they overpopulate the existing land, events get faster, wars get blooder, and the charming realm of feudal fantasy gets replaced with dull and angry world of money.
Honour, courage, dignity, and nobility give way to the greed and cold calculations. (See Bro&Bro Grimm for details).
Personal relations give way to business. Oaths, dynasties, and traditions at last mean nothing.

Lifespan grows, population grows faster and faster, plowland stays the same or decreases.
The civilization gets depending on technologies more than on natural resources and population size.
Say, 500 years more.

(A funny thing 4000000:200000:10000:500 = 20 times less every time.  Coincidence? Maybe.)

At last their knowledge and industrial abilities reach some critical point, and things get becoming more complex and interconnected in geometrical progression.
This requires computers, computers appear, and immediately make the things even more complicated and unmanageable.

This requires energy, they get as much energy as they can from chemistry, then discover the physics. Nuclear age begins and unites with computers.
Meanwhile something flies to space and back.

^{> (U R here)}

The planet gets overpopulated at all, new technologies make workers useless, food cheap, salaries low, former social models broken.
In several decades the civilisation collapses and bursts like a puffy red giant star.

Becoming like a white dwarf: dense, mean, and focused.
With no illusions, but knowing the price of everything, forgetting the old tales, but constructing the new tale to live in.
Totally urban and overtechnological. Because most of lo-tech lovers got lost together with former biosphere, and survivors were adopted into urban conditions.

(Of course some of them become "black holes" instead of "white dwarves". Poor things. Forget them.)

They rebuild their planet, restore the biosphere (very different from the one which had gone, because 100 elephants = no elephants, as well as lions, tigers, whales, etc).

They begin utilizing/colonizing their planet system.
They research their planets and other star systems more and more intensively, plan getting to other stars.

And at this point they tresspass the border of federal property.

The farther they get, the more they touch something outside of their native planet, the more often they disturb peaceful owners of that staff.
The more problems they cause, even if not realizing.

At the same time they are getting more and more merged with their technologies, depending on them, technologically augmenting their minds and bodies.
Their body lifespan grows, their minds and personalities get more and more shared and unified, they are getting to the limits of their biological basis.
The more and more they are feeling themselves not as a former monkeys with keyboard, but like abstract personalities associated with this biological prototype.

This gets them closer and closer to personal immortality, though this "personal" is no more a human person, it's a hivemind network.

At some point the universe federal authorities (a hivemind of former civilizations and their candidates) decide that it's enough and it's a time to eliminate the new danger.
They probably assault and try to destroy the young supercivilization. Like a tribal initiation.
(Because any system likes inertia the best. Any new member of society requires a lot of actions to do.)
If the civilization survives, so passes the initiation, the space federal authorities invite the civilization to merge, to merg their eternal hivemind.

If the civilization rejects, they destroy it.
If the civilization agrees and successfully performs the candidate tasks, its hivemind network dissolves in the federal hivemind becoming a part of it.

This is the last point of a civilization, an eternal amber crystal with bulbs of former civilizations frozen inside.
At this point time and distance means nothing.

So, civilizations are not just sparkles above a fire. They are grains of sand bcoming compressed into a sedimental layer.

[DAL59]

3 hours ago, Gargamel said:

Ahh but they would.    The relationship between the Earth, Moon, and Sun is pretty unique, at least within our solar system. 

We have total solar eclipses, but of the type that the Moon perfectly covers the sun, not more.    Other planet/moon combinations have eclipses, but I don't believe any have this near perfect arrangement.  We're also in a time frame where this occurs, a long time ago the moon was too close, in the future it will be too far away. 

This presents a reason for aliens to visit earth.   Tourism.   We might have one of the few places in the galaxy where you can observe an eclipse as such.  So aliens would come to Earth to watch the solar eclipses from a planets surface. 

 And what do drunk college kids do on vacation?  They torment the locals.    Hence all these pointless unexplainable abduction stories we hear about. 

Quote

Tips!for!aliens!in!New!York:! Land!anywhere,!Central!Park,!anywhere.!No!one!will!care,!or! indeed!even!notice.! Surviving:!get!a!job!as!cab!driver!immediately.!A!cab!driver's!job!is! to!drive!people!anywhere!they!want!to!go!in!big!yellow machines! called!taxis.!Don't!worry!if!you!don't!know!how!the!machine!works! and!you!can't!speak!the!language,!don't!understand!the!geography!or! indeed!the!basic!physics!of!the!area,!and!have!large!green!antennae! growing!out!of!your!head.!Believe!me,!this!is!the!best!way!of!staying! inconspicuous.! If!your!body!is!really!weird!try!showing!it!to!people!in!the!streets! for!money.! Amphibious!life!forms!from!any!of!the!worlds!in!the!Swulling,! Noxios!or!Nausalia!systems!will!particularly!enjoy!the!East!River,! which!is!said!to!be!richer!in!those!lovely!life`giving!nutrients!then!the! finest!and!most!virulent!laboratory!slime!yet!achieved.! Having!fun:!This!is!the!big!section.!It!is!impossible!to!have!more!fun! without!electrocuting!your!pleasure!centres...!

 

On 8/7/2018 at 5:27 PM, hendrack said:

According to a recently published paper it is probable we are alone in our Milky Way (39%) and even alone in the observable universe (58%).  To get this numbers they used probability mathematics with the parameters of the Drake equasion.

They acknowledge this isn't the ultimate answer though, just the probability with the current state of what we know and see in the universe.

 

https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.02404

PDF https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404

Shouldn't the numbers be the other way around?  If the probability of their being aliens in the Milky Way was 39%, there would be a 99.99999% of aliens in the observable universe of billions of galaxies.  

[Wjolcz]

It's silly to assume we're alone. Especially since we haven't searched hard enough for any evidence of extraterrestrial life.

Life is crazy good at surviving harsh conditions. And there's evidence that it doesn't have much problems emerging. I bet there are at least 2 more worlds with life in the Solar system alone. Now, whether that life is eukaryotic and multicellular is another question, but since endosymbiosis happened on Earth a couple of times then why not on other worlds too?

We need more and better telescopes that can detect unusual elements in atmospheres of exoplanets. Once JWST and ELT is online I bet we will see a lot of planets with their atmospheres out of equilibrium.

Besides, the Fermi paradox isn't really a paradox and Drake's equation is pretty useless (for now). The equation's purpose was to make people think of the odds of life out there, not to calculate actual odds.

Edited August 8, 2018 by Wjolcz

[Racescort666]

11 hours ago, kerbiloid said:

Why not?

An alien civilization can use humans as a very cheap ready-to-use highly adaptive hi-end element of fauna on other planets.
From time to time visiting Earth and taking a required amount, like Earth is an incubator.

Like we do this in Spore. "To stabilize the biosphere, bring 3 species."
Then we fly to a custom planet, kidnap several things with a ray and bring them to the planet. 

If presume the life is rare but there's at least one superciv except ours, maybe some planets in galaxy are seeded by the alien civ with humans. Just because of no choice.
Since paleokidnapping till modern days.
Unlikely hi-tech, as they are by design a part of fauna, so tribal-medieval.

Thus, maybe space-opera fantasy is the most realistic genre of sci-fi.

 

Spore is a rather great game, it taught me a lot...

Spoiler

This is basically part of the premise behind Stargate SG-1 except the Goa'uld are parasites (sort of) and they're not really a superciv. 

 

[Wjolcz]

11 hours ago, kerbiloid said:

Why not?

An alien civilization can use humans as a very cheap ready-to-use highly adaptive hi-end element of fauna on other planets.
From time to time visiting Earth and taking a required amount, like Earth is an incubator.

Like we do this in Spore. "To stabilize the biosphere, bring 3 species."
Then we fly to a custom planet, kidnap several things with a ray and bring them to the planet. 

That is very unlikely IMO. I always thought these missions were more of a joke. This kind of behaviour wouldn't make much sense. Seeding intelligent life all around the galaxy is kind of dangerous for you. Eventually these seeded civilizations would rise to your level and there's a very high chance they would want to take your place. The more of them there are the higher the likelihood of this happening.

This is why I hope Mars is dead (with the recent findings it's probably not). If it is then it's free real estate and we can move in without hurting anybody.

11 hours ago, kerbiloid said:

Spore is a rather great game, it taught me a lot...

Try Cell Lab. It's free and it shows that with a couple of simple rules complex organisms can emerge and thrive and all they need is time and random mutations.

 

7 hours ago, p1t1o said:

The idea that humanity will last forever and conquer the universe is laughably arrogant if you ask me, but there is time enough for a lot of stuff.

We won't because of two things: evolution and the inability to maintain integrity on the larger scales. You would have to send cultural and technological updates all the time. It might not be a problem if we're talking about star systems relatively close (Proxima Cen) but maintaining culture and tech and minimizing differences of a colony on the other side of the galaxy is impossible.

7 hours ago, p1t1o said:

The idea that humanity will last forever and conquer the universe is laughably arrogant if you ask me, but there is time enough for a lot of stuff.

-the post bugged out here and i cant delete this quote please ignore-

Check out Isaac Arthur's series and PBS Spacetime host's (his name is Matt something) presentation on galactic civilizations.

Edited August 8, 2018 by Wjolcz