totm april 2020 Coronavirus

[tater]

Really infectious, not very deadly? Only serology will tell. First study for US out Friday on that front, apparently from a guy at Stanford.

[DDE]

Quote

We report here that Ivermectin, an FDA-approved anti-parasitic previously shown to have broad-spectrum anti-viral activity in vitro, is an inhibitor of the causative virus (SARS-CoV-2), with a single addition to Vero-hSLAM cells 2 hours post infection with SARS-CoV-2 able to effect ∼5000-fold reduction in viral RNA at 48 h. Ivermectin therefore warrants further investigation for possible benefits in humans.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0166354220302011

[kerbiloid]

In the Chinese city at the border with Russia the "sitting at home" mode is started, due to the "Chinese citizens arriving from the Russian territory", as 25 of them are infected.

https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=ru&sl=ru&tl=en&u=https://www.interfax.ru/world/703284

P.S.
Why do I hardly _{actually, don't at all} believe that in China the epidemy is over?..

Maybe just from comparing the population density and the amount of infected ones from both sides of the border?

Edited April 9, 2020 by kerbiloid

[DDE]

 

[tater]

These guys think the US detection rate (Ascertainment rate) might be 1.59% (for March, might have improved). This is their summary, the paper is supposedly in the Lancet, didn't find it when I looked:

http://www.uni-goettingen.de/de/document/download/ff656163edb6e674fdbf1642416a3fa1.pdf/Bommer & Vollmer (2020) COVID-19 detection April 2nd.pdf

They estimate 11M cases were in the US by the end of March (3.58% of pop). Now consider it doubles every X days... they work backwards from deaths, BTW, so this just increase the number of cases, doesn't change deaths (so IFR would drop, but number impacted would be far higher).

This is as uncertain as anything else, clearly, but it shows there are legitimate, alternate viewpoints on the way this is spreading.

This is why we need serological tests.

If the % ever infected in the US is a couple % at the end of April, fighting COVID-19 is the new normal for a long time. Mass testing, contact tracing, isolating any new cases and quarantining the contacts, some distancing, all that stuff will have to happen until a vaccine or reliable treatment (years). If OTOH, the percentage who were ever infected is much larger, like 40% or more (number depends on what R₀ actually is), then the strategy is entirely different as there is no possible way to do contact tracing, etc, we're in the "hit herd immunity" scenario (because the number of low level infected people is far, far too large for contact tracing, there are simply not enough people who can do that work fast enough).

Edited April 9, 2020 by tater

[tater]

Most virus tested in the US came from Europe, apparently (small mutations let them track this).

Looks like air travel restrictions could have helped earlier (since the one early one apparently helped).

That Nov 2019 MIT paper about washing hands in hub airports being able to knock down pandemics by 67%...

 

[sevenperforce]

25 minutes ago, tater said:

If the % ever infected in the US is a couple % at the end of April, fighting COVID-19 is the new normal for a long time. Mass testing, contact tracing, isolating any new cases and quarantining the contacts, some distancing, all that stuff will have to happen until a vaccine or reliable treatment (years). If OTOH, the percentage who were ever infected is much larger, like 40% or more (number depends on what R₀ actually is), then the strategy is entirely different as there is no possible way to do contact tracing, etc, we're in the "hit herd immunity" scenario (because the number of low level infected people is far, far too large for contact tracing, there are simply not enough people who can do that work fast enough).

I don't think hitting isolation and contact tracing is ever going to be sufficient to beat it. It is contagious enough, and infection is broadspread enough, that we are going to need to hit herd immunity, period. Ultimately, either everyone gets it or we dev a vaccine, whichever comes first.

I know you panned the earlier comparison to  the flu R₀, but a comparative analysis is really our best bet here. Once we have serological testing, we can start to take seriously the question of how many people need to have immunity in order to bring the average person's chances of catching it down to seasonal flu levels.

3 minutes ago, tater said:

Most virus tested in the US came from Europe, apparently (small mutations let them track this).

I saw this in the nextstrain data a few days ago, before it was reported. The WA outbreak came from China and then triggered CA; the NYC outbreak came from France and then triggered NJ and other areas along the eastern seaboard.

10 minutes ago, tater said:

Looks like air travel restrictions could have helped earlier (since the one early one apparently helped).

The "early" one decidedly did not help. By the time travel from China was restricted, new domestic case rate in the US was growing faster than the rate of new cases coming in from China. It was just too late.

If they had completely shut down travel from Europe at the same time they half-restricted flights from China, it might have been early enough to prevent the catastrophe in NY.

[tater]

Serological data is coming finally.

That German paper about detection rate is likely right.

First paper said ~11M March 31 in the US, give a IFR of 0.4% (serological data from Germany just posted), then the US should have had ~3.5M cases 18 days ago (using total deaths, and the fact that mean time to death is apparently ~18 days, so 3 doubling periods ago). So ~28M today.

Edited April 9, 2020 by tater

[tater]

29 minutes ago, sevenperforce said:

I saw this in the nextstrain data a few days ago, before it was reported. The WA outbreak came from China and then triggered CA; the NYC outbreak came from France and then triggered NJ and other areas along the eastern seaboard.

Yeah, this makes sense given the west coast communities, loads of Asia travel. The WA cases must have come over pretty early, too, it was already community spread, and family or workers must have brought it to the nursing home.

I still want a more physics like R₀, lol. Something you could test, and always get the same answer within some small error and uncertainty. Like healthy person 1m from infected person, what is the duration of exposure required for 50% of the healthy to become infected at that range . Obviously ethics would have to not be a thing for that.

 

[StrandedonEarth]

BC appears to be doing okay. The number of new confirmed cases per day is roughly flat, but that means nothin here with the limited testing going on. More telling is that hospitalizations and ICU numbers are also flat or falling slightly, apparently as people die (also roughly flat) but the beds are not refilled by new critical cases. 

So things are looking up! It’s getting worse at a slower rate. 

[DDE]

5 hours ago, sevenperforce said:

I don't think hitting isolation and contact tracing is ever going to be sufficient to beat it.

Its time has passed, yeah - the floodgates are open now.

[tater]

10 minutes ago, DDE said:

Its time has passed, yeah - the floodgates are open now.

Yeah, if 15% (or more) have had it, then contact tracing would be impossible, the number of cases at large is huge.

That said, the Germans ended up with an IFR of 0.37%, so while really bad, it's substantially better than other numbers being thrown around. Not just deaths, BTW. The numbers that actually "work" (are useful) are the % of people who need hospitalization who don't improve, and move to intensive care, then the % of those who die. So while the numbers hospitalized are large (~4X flu), you don't have a 20% chance of going to the hospital if you catch this, you might have a 5% average chance, instead (in reality much lower if younger, higher if older).

[tater]

 

[tater]

 

[Superfluous J]

1 hour ago, tater said:

 

This is our Wrath Of Kahn moment.

"It's thinking in one dimension!"

[DDE]

22 minutes ago, Superfluous J said:

This is our Wrath Of Kahn moment.

"It's thinking in one dimension!"

More like the Wrath of Gräf moment. They (Auchan) could have shuttered the Sberbank ATM in the middle to more or less maintain the distance, but then they'd lose about half of all clients.

 

1 hour ago, tater said:

To be fair, the primary direction of breathing is straight ahead.

Anyway,

 

Edited April 10, 2020 by DDE

[Superfluous J]

6 minutes ago, DDE said:

To be fair, the primary direction of breathing is straight ahead.

I was thinking more, to be fair you generally won't have multiple people waiting in line for multiple ATMs at the same time, those X's are more for if you show up as the fairly rare 2nd person, and there's already someone at the ATM in front of you.

Best would be to have one line that goes to all 3, but without a security guard / bouncer there is no way you'll convince the average person to abide that. You've got about a 50/50 shot of them standing on those squares as it is.

[DDE]

5 hours ago, Superfluous J said:

but without a security guard / bouncer

Do you see the guy in a suit with a nametag to the right of the ATMs?

[Arugela]

One thing bothers me about all this. India namely. [snip] But given their open completely exposed populous they should all be dead by now. So, what is happening?! How has india not dropped in population by at least 50% yet?! It's one of if not the most bizarre thing so far out of the entire, "pandemic."

 

On 4/9/2020 at 10:22 PM, DDE said:

More like the Wrath of Gräf moment. They (Auchan) could have shuttered the Sberbank ATM in the middle to more or less maintain the distance, but then they'd lose about half of all clients.

https://https://twitter.com/CrazyinRussia/status/1247837348664049665?s=20https://twitter.com/CrazyinRussia/status/1247837348664049665?s=20https://twitter.com/CrazyinRussia/status/1247837348664049665?s=20twitter.com/CrazyinRussia/status/1247837348664049665?s=20

To be fair, the primary direction of breathing is straight ahead.

Anyway,

To be fair, the employee with the name tag on the side guarding it is standing 6 feet away for his own safety while the people in line aren't. Little details make big differences.

Edited April 11, 2020 by Vanamonde

[DDE]

On 4/10/2020 at 4:37 AM, Arugela said:

One thing bothers me about all this. India namely. 

Well, the first, not entirely serious response is that they definitely have a strong immune system as a result.

7600-something infections vs 230 deaths does suggest an inadequate testing regimen. Plus they have serious issues enforcing the national lockdown - in fact, about a third of their infections originated from a single public event defying the lockdown. And giving people lip about that might get you shot.

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/up-man-shot-dead-at-tea-shop-for-blaming-tablighi-jamaat-for-coronavirus-spread-1663552-2020-04-05

Edited April 11, 2020 by Vanamonde

[Arugela]

I don't get how it's not possible their lifestyles(which they can't avoid) has not made it spread like a wildfire through their poor populations and literally dropped the human population by many percentages. It's statistically impossible given their situation. It should have been the biggest part of the pandemic. There is no logical reason for it not happening. It should be defining the entire pandemic. And it should have already happened. Their line about them being hard on the pandemic is repurposed bovine waste. It's not possible and it hasn't happened. They have no way as a country to avoid the pandemic. They are the biggest sitting duck on the planet. Something is very wrong with this whole thing. As in massively conspiratorially wrong.

 

They could not hide a large percentage of the human population dieing at once. The body piles would be too high(and viewable from satelites.). Or the smell of corpses would reach other nations. It's too much too fast. It would outdo the entire black death of Europe and be the biggest tragedy in human history on it's own. There is no way to hide that. Or that it hasn't happened. And it hasn't. Something fishy this way comes. This should be the biggest shock of human history at this point. But nobody is noticing it. And governments will be lieing through their teeth when/if the public notices it(And everyone is too stupid at this point by the looks of it. Sadly proving public education has done it's job.). Assuming they don't bite the efficient lockdown nonsense. [snip]

 

With the info we have been given this is the only logical outcome. And it doesn't matter which point you argue from. The rest of the points won't make sense because of this alone.

Edited April 11, 2020 by Vanamonde

[Guest]

Take a look at where India is. To the north, mountains. To all the other sides, ocean. The virus takes a while to start spreading. They were not hit yet. They will be. All things you describe, Black Death-style piles of corpses included, are a very real possibility. India might well become the hardest hit place in the entire world, by the end of it all. It just hasn't kicked off yet. They didn't avoid anything, they were just late to start. If they don't get their act together, it'll end quickly, too, in a devastated mess.

[snip]

Edited April 11, 2020 by Guest

[DDE]

15 minutes ago, Arugela said:

and literally dropped the human population by many percentages.

The youth bulge. India isn't the Global North, it's not full of old people. Ghoulish as that sounds, the developing world can shrug unmitigated COVID casualties off with ease.

The real answer as to why it hasn't devastated India is because it hasn't hit India yet.

[Arugela]

They are right next to china. They were also one of the first places it spread too. It should have hit their poor like a ton of bricks.

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/30/india-confirms-first-case-of-the-coronavirus.html

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_India

 

January of 2020!

 

They were already hit.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poverty_in_India

 

Quote

about 276 million people

 

In 2012, the Indian government stated that 22% of its population is below its official poverty limit. Based on 2005's PPPs International Comparison Program, in 2011, the World Bank estimated that 23.6% of Indian population, or about 276 million people, lived below $1.25 per day on purchasing power parity.

The population of the US basically. This should have been pandemic central. There is no way it was avoided. It wasn't avoided. India is the perfect test for what the pandemic does. It is completely open to spreading there.

 

https://www.soschildrensvillages.ca/news/poverty-in-india-602

Quote

How many people in India are poor?

800 million people

 

More than 800 million people in India are considered poor. Most of them live in the countryside and keep afloat with odd jobs. The lack of employment which provides a livable wage in rural areas is driving many Indians into rapidly growing metropolitan areas such as Bombay, Delhi, Bangalore or Calcutta.

This estimates even more.

 

India is literally the perfect storm.

 

Most of their population doesn't even have TV or radio potentially to get the info. How can they quarantine anyone without it spreading?! The poor population is the most likely to ignore it also as it risks their lives the most because of lack of food or other resources. Look at china for examples. let alone I bet most of them don't have plumbing. So, when they all congregate at the river to wash clothes and bathe what should happen. [smip] they should be massive carriers and the problem starts back up again potentially with any population movements. India's population should be mostly dead at this point. We should have seen a biblical end of times, death of the firstborns population drop in India by now. the congregation of flies should be visible from orbit and they should be spreading to surrounding nations like the plague of flies in egypt spreading it even more.[snip]

 

https://abcnews.go.com/International/toxic-foam-pollutes-indias-sacred-yamuna-river/story?id=57995346

 

There is nothing logical about this whole pandemic. If it's too good to be true IT IS.

 

The only other answer is the pollution killed corona. At which point why aren't we studying it to death for a cure?! Nothing is adding up. One person in india sick should have basically doomed their entire poor as it went up like mount st. helens.

 

https://www.britannica.com/video/82384/awe-geologists-explosion-Mount-Saint-Helens-May-18-1980

 

On 4/10/2020 at 5:04 AM, Dragon01 said:

Take a look at where India is. To the north, mountains. To all the other sides, ocean. The virus takes a while to start spreading. They were not hit yet. They will be. All things you describe, Black Death-style piles of corpses included, are a very real possibility. India might well become the hardest hit place in the entire world, by the end of it all. It just hasn't kicked off yet. They didn't avoid anything, they were just late to start. If they don't get their act together, it'll end quickly, too, in a devastated mess.

 

As I said, they were some of the first hit. They started this back in January. How did they not bloom like everyone else on the planet?! [snip] Why do you think they are late to the party. Why not actually look up the info first... Two seconds of googling will solve this. Mountains mean nothing with modern transportation. Even with ancient transportation transport across those mountains was common. The ancient native populations were very adept at it. And still are.

 

Add this to the mix. Where is the food for the poor coming from(since January). If they are isolated how do they eat. Maybe they have dried food(maybe), but what about water?! They cannot isolate. Only live. And they have every level of poor. Mud hut poor, Ramshackle massive village poor like in brazil, low in come house poor, etc. They have poor from every type and should be reflective of it just like the rest of the planet. Please, somebody, explain this to me.

Edited April 11, 2020 by Vanamonde

[Guest]

On 4/10/2020 at 5:08 AM, Arugela said:

As I said, they were some of the first hit. They started this back in January. How did they not bloom like everyone else on the planet?! [snip] Why do you think they are late to the party. Why not actually look up the info first... Two seconds of googling will solve this. Mountains mean nothing with modern transportation. Even with ancient transportation transport across those mountains was common. The ancient native populations were very adept at it. And still are.

Maybe because it had only now reached the population centers? And no, mountains do not "mean nothing", they are a significant challenge to both transportation and habitation. Yes, even today. We can do it, and could for a long time, but that doesn't mean it's efficient, especially since it's much easier to get from China to India by sea. These mountains, in particular, are very poorly developed, hardly anyone lives there, which makes it difficult for the virus to spread. 

On 4/10/2020 at 5:08 AM, Arugela said:

They are right next to china. They were also one of the first places it spread too. It should have hit their poor like a ton of bricks.

No it shouldn't. Wuhan is in eastern China. India's border with China is in western China. That's, like, an entire country, one of the largest on Earth, between them. And China was good at containing the disease and locking things down. Northwestern China is rather sparsely populated, too, most people are concentrated in the eastern part. There is no conspiracy, just elementary epidemiology. That's exactly how we'd expect it to behave. India has not really heeded the warnings, and it will catch up to them. They do have more young people than we do, by percentages, so they will have more mild cases, but they'll have their share of tragedy soon enough.

Edited April 11, 2020 by Guest