tater Posted May 3, 2020 Share Posted May 3, 2020 (edited) 2 hours ago, kerbiloid said: Sounds ambiguously when Didn't seem to impact mortality 1. Shortened duration for the hospitalized people (vs the much larger number who are not hospitalized) reduces impact on healthcare delivery. 2. They have not tested dosing non-hospitalized patients. It should be at least as effective, potentially preventing mortality because a % don't get as sick. Most antivirals are given right away to be effective at all, like Tamiflu (within 48 hours of onset). Used in a similar way, this could really help. 3. They can now test in combination with other treatments, maybe it helps. Bottom line is that any improvement in disease course due to treatment is a good thing. The study shows a small improvement in mortality, actually, but the number was so small they can't say for certain the drug had an impact. Making it standard of care will increase the data points, and maybe that small change in mortality is actually there, and not buried in the uncertainty. Edited May 3, 2020 by tater Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lisias Posted May 3, 2020 Share Posted May 3, 2020 The worst part for me is not this disease - at least, yet. It's the others diseases. I had to go to a hospital near home at last Monday. Details are not needed, but it's enough to say that I decided going to the hospital would be safer than not going. That thing was almost empty. Almost no doctors, almost not patients. The most crowded that place got was me and two more patients - and half a dozen doctors and attendants to handle us. The ambulance driver included. Problem? People are not seeking medical help. Hospitals are not getting money from sick people, so hospitals are under-staffed. Heavily understaffed - so after paying some good money for the exams they had staff to provide me, I was told that i need to seek a specialist for further diagnosis. The guys were very attentive and helpful, they did the most they could with the money I had and the staff available, so they ruled out a lot of things that would need immediate attention. So at least, whatever I have is not urgent. But I still need to consult a specialist. That are not available anywhere near me. So, now, I need to find a specialist that is working (as all the ones my friends had recommended to me are attending the lockdown), and then take my risks using public transport to there - on the city where the COVID19 had hit harder on this country, that are being hit hard on the overall. Sounds great, uh? Things are way more complicated than it appears. I'm not the only one with this problem, and I can say I'm lucky as my problem is not urgent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tater Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 (edited) https://www.ukbonn.de/C12582D3002FD21D/vwLookupDownloads/Streeck_et_al_Infection_fatality_rate_of_SARS_CoV_2_infection2.pdf/$FILE/Streeck_et_al_Infection_fatality_rate_of_SARS_CoV_2_infection2.pdf The actual German paper about their serological study. They got 15.5% positive, but there is an estimate of ~19% in there as a correction for underrepresented cases (fig3). Secondary attack rate is consistent with China and SK (surprisingly unlikely within households). In fact, it mirrors flu in this regard. (fig5). Fewer than 20% of household members get it on average. The people who attended carnival had noticeably more symptoms. The superspreader event resulted in higher viral loads, presumably. They also found high antibodies even in people who had asymptomatic disease courses. Edited May 4, 2020 by tater Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tater Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 (edited) Was stated a long time ago, but don't be so sick you ever need to live in a nursing home: https://ltccovid.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Mortality-associated-with-COVID-12-April-3.pdf ~50% of all COVID-19 deaths are nursing home patients/residents. Edited May 4, 2020 by tater Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tater Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 T2D is Type 2 Diabetes. Stats are related to those sick enough to be admitted to the hospital. 10 fold increase in mortality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tater Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDE Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 Chief designer of NPO Energiya and a major backer of Oryol has died of COVID. https://tass.ru/obschestvo/8398075 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AHHans Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 1 hour ago, DDE said: Chief designer of NPO Energiya and a major backer of Oryol has died of COVID. Sic transit gloria mundi. Somewhat OT: These articles show me how far Google Translate still has to go. The German translation of the article you linked to starts with something that translates to: "The scientist [...] dedicated his whole life to the development of the household space program." . o O (A Soyuz in every backyard. ) The word Google used there also translates to "domestic" but only in the sense like "domestic violence" not in the sense of "domestic policy". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tater Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tater Posted May 6, 2020 Share Posted May 6, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tater Posted May 6, 2020 Share Posted May 6, 2020 Interesting graphs, but the age range versions are bizarre. https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/04/16/tracking-covid-19-excess-deaths-across-countries 0-14 years old, 15-64, then 65+ The scales are zoomed in since so few die below 65, and of course most of those deaths are likely 50+. Better at the same scale, and more useful age cohorts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tater Posted May 6, 2020 Share Posted May 6, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tater Posted May 7, 2020 Share Posted May 7, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tater Posted May 7, 2020 Share Posted May 7, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tater Posted May 7, 2020 Share Posted May 7, 2020 More on the "don't be fat" wagon: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.28.20083295v1.full.pdf Close and prolonged contact: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magnemoe Posted May 8, 2020 Share Posted May 8, 2020 On 5/3/2020 at 2:18 AM, tater said: This is a good thread, though I am posting the moneyshot of it: Didn't seem to impact mortality, but a 30% reduction in hospitalization also means an instant 30% increase in hospital capacity for these patients form faster turn over. it makes some sense that the virus get weaker, people who get sick go to into quarantine or hospital if bad. If its mild and they might not have much symptoms they continue their everyday life and infect others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDE Posted May 8, 2020 Share Posted May 8, 2020 Moscow to start fining people without mask and gloves as plato fails to materialize. https://ria.ru/20200508/1571163103.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerbiloid Posted May 8, 2020 Share Posted May 8, 2020 (edited) (upd.) "To fine people without mask and gloves" = "To make them fine with mask and gloves" Also Rospotrebnadzor recommended to stop separating garbage and treat all citizens' garbage as medical. Edited May 8, 2020 by kerbiloid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tater Posted May 8, 2020 Share Posted May 8, 2020 Another paper talking about variability in outbreak models, such that herd immunity can be at substantially lower thresholds than 1-1/R0. Paper still assumes R0 2.5 - 3 (and I still think that the R numbers are not terribly robust). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tater Posted May 8, 2020 Share Posted May 8, 2020 That superspreader event in Boston (the biotech conference) was sort of like this. Either buffet, or just one of those sponsored cocktail parties with a poster session (so people attend the poster session), or cocktail parties in the exhibit hall (so the exhibitors get more traffic). Serve food to your plate, stand around shaking hands and eating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superfluous J Posted May 8, 2020 Share Posted May 8, 2020 Buffets are disgusting anyway. Salad bars too. Which is sad because I used to love salad bars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tater Posted May 9, 2020 Share Posted May 9, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, Superfluous J said: Buffets are disgusting anyway. Salad bars too. Which is sad because I used to love salad bars. Some are OK. We have an Indian place that had a nice one. Some functions have heavy hors d'oeuvres, which I guess I think of as a buffet of sorts. Oddest lack of COVID news to me? Where are the serological surveys from China? You'd think they would have had them first. Edited May 9, 2020 by tater Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superfluous J Posted May 9, 2020 Share Posted May 9, 2020 1 hour ago, tater said: Where are the serological surveys from China? I can't answer that without breaking the forum rules on politics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikegarrison Posted May 9, 2020 Share Posted May 9, 2020 (edited) https://erinbromage.wixsite.com/covid19/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them An interesting writeup by an infectious disease immunology professor covering some information about the physical mechanisms of how the virus spreads. Not population math models and such, but rather stuff like this: In this case from China, A1 was an asymptomatic person who had been infected. The diagram shows which other people in the restaurant became infected. 50% of those at his table, but 75% of those at the table downwind of him, and two at the other table (due to air recirculation patterns). Edited May 9, 2020 by mikegarrison Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSaint Posted May 9, 2020 Share Posted May 9, 2020 4 hours ago, Superfluous J said: Buffets are disgusting anyway. Salad bars too. Which is sad because I used to love salad bars. They closed Souplantation in Southern California, permanently. Which is one of my wife's favorite restaurants, we go there at least once every trip back. She's extremely bummed now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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