Tu-141 crashes in Zagreb

[Shpaget]

Last night, apparently, a Tu-141 reconnaissance drone crashed in Zagreb. It's a fairly big, rocket launched, turbojet powered, fixed wing drone from the 80's, currently operated only by Ukrainian military, but potentially still in storage of other former Soviet countries. It is still not clear where it was launched from, but it certainly went off course and well beyond specified operational range.

The damned thing fell about 1,5 km from my location. I heard it coming down. At first, it sounded like a low flying military jet, but soon the sound changed to a weird mix of something I can only explain as a jet engine being dragged across railroad tracks, in reverse. I did not hear an explosion of it lithobraking. Reports mention no fire, so it likely ran out of fuel. Reports do mention red stars painted on it.

An article in English:
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/44697/ukrainian-tu-141-strizh-missile-like-drone-appears-to-have-crashed-in-croatia

Croatian article with videos and photos:
https://www.24sata.hr/news/je-li-letjelica-koja-je-pala-na-zagreb-dron-tupoljev-tu-141-821380

[kerbiloid]

Just btw. I can't see a red star on the photo, but there is a clearly seen yellow trident on the fin.

P.S.
Maybe was returning to the UA base when the control failed, and it was keeping flying West unyil got empty.

P.P.S.
So, nobody had intercepted a 1970s old cruise-missile-like non-stealth noisy drone heading to a big Croatian city, when there was a lot of anti-aicraft on its way.

Edited March 11, 2022 by kerbiloid

[Shpaget]

Regarding the red star, I only relay what I've read.

As for why and how it crossed about 1000 km (assuming it came from north east) without being intercepted, that's a good question, and one a few neighboring countries, in addition to Croatia, will have to answer. Investigations are already happening.

We're also waiting for Ukrainian statement whether it's one of theirs.

Croatian department of defense "can not confirm nor deny" anything so far, so we still don't have positive ID on the object.

It seems there were no casualties, even though it fell in urban environment. Some damage to nearby parked cars.

[kerbiloid]

Oops, the photo is not of the fallen one, but of a launchpad.  It's a random photo.

[DDE]

This forum does like to walk a fine line, does it not?

Basically, I wouldn't immediately discount old Russian stocks being used as SAM bait. After all, there seems to be an emulation of Azerbaijani expendable drones going on:

Edited March 11, 2022 by DDE

[Codraroll]

To quote somebody from another forum:

Quote

The first working theory in Croatia is that the drone was set to travel to Jarun near Zhytomir but that someone set the coordinates for Jarun, Zagreb where the UAV crashed

Plausible? I don't know.

[DDE]

Add another Tu-141 to the mix. This one fell out of the sky in pieces over Crimea. Note the red star with something rectangular and blue seemingly painted over it:

As in, perhaps?

I mean, it's not exactly a flight-critical element... Here's an unrelated operational Tu-143 where the lack of care for sandblasting is particularly apparent:

[JoeSchmuckatelli]

10 hours ago, Shpaget said:

in Zagreb. 

U svakom selu izgradi kucu!

So - totally non sequitur and off topic...

 I spent a fantastic week in Croatia back in '94.  Went there as a backpacker hoping to find a way to do humanitarian aid work, and along the way met a local guy who told me not to stay in Zagreb because all the hotel prices were jacked up because of Western press and diplomats.  He managed to talk a hotelier down to a reasonable price, but it didn't matter because they had no rooms available anyway.  So he took me to his aunt's place in Kozice.  Fell in love with Croatian beer and local food.  And the coffee!

I did get to spend a day poking around in Zagreb, seeing some beautiful churches and other stuff as a tourist... but it was a mixed-reality time.  Really, really want to go back sometime and see it now.

Edited March 11, 2022 by JoeSchmuckatelli

[Shpaget]

9 hours ago, Codraroll said:

To quote somebody from another forum:

Plausible? I don't know.

I know nothing about how these things are programmed, but if it has original avionics (not likely) it certainly doesn't use Google maps. I'd say somebody on the forums was joking and somebody else didn't quite catch it.

In any case
"The drone that crashed in the capital of Croatia does not belong to Ukraine, adviser to the Minister of Defense Markiyan Lubkivsky said."
Can't link due to 2.2b .

Hungary and Romania confirm they had it on their radars and that the drone entered Romania from Ukrainian airspace.

3 hours ago, JoeSchmuckatelli said:

-snip

Hey, we still have food and beer and coffee! Come back!

[kerbiloid]

7 hours ago, Shpaget said:

I know nothing about how these things are programmed, but if it has original avionics (not likely) it certainly doesn't use Google maps.

A combo-box in the geographic software suddenly slided by one position, or the mouse was unwashed, or the finger was thick.

Though, Google Maps should take care of providing "Aim the missile" functionality, like they have "Plane Flight" mode in Google Earth.

7 hours ago, Shpaget said:

Hungary and Romania confirm they had it on their radars

and were watching with interest, where it will fall.

That's why they forgot to make a phone call.

[JoeSchmuckatelli]

50 minutes ago, kerbiloid said:

Google Maps should take care of providing "Aim the missile" functionality,

Wasn't that built before Google Maps was a thing?  I suspect it still uses dials.

 

(grin)

[kerbiloid]

8 minutes ago, JoeSchmuckatelli said:

1 hour ago, kerbiloid said:

Google Maps should take care of providing "Aim the missile" functionality,

Wasn't that built before Google Maps was a thing?  I suspect it still uses dials.

Probably it's a available only for premium users.

[Codraroll]

22 hours ago, Shpaget said:

I know nothing about how these things are programmed, but if it has original avionics (not likely) it certainly doesn't use Google maps. I'd say somebody on the forums was joking and somebody else didn't quite catch it.

The theory was that the drone is pre-programmed with waypoint coordinates. Whoever input the coordinates didn't want to spend several minutes looking it up on paper maps, but pulled out their phone and simply googled "coordinates of _____", and didn't notice they had looked up the wrong Jarun by mistake.

[magnemoe]

3 minutes ago, Codraroll said:

The theory was that the drone is pre-programmed with waypoint coordinates. Whoever input the coordinates didn't want to spend several minutes looking it up on paper maps, but pulled out their phone and simply googled "coordinates of _____", and didn't notice they had looked up the wrong Jarun by mistake.

Or it simply malfunctioned somehow. One US drone ended up in Iran and its was an much more modern system using remote control by satellite and gps. 
And unclear if it was an Ukraine or Russian launch. They would work well as SAM baits being fighter jet sized, pretty obsolete, unmanned and reusable. 
Pretty sure Ukraine getting tactical UAV from the west now. 

[DDE]

1 hour ago, magnemoe said:

Pretty sure Ukraine getting tactical UAV from the west now. 

Word is the Bayraktars keep rolling in, although they had to switch the delivery channel.

 

[kerbiloid]

9 hours ago, Codraroll said:

The theory was that the drone is pre-programmed with waypoint coordinates. Whoever input the coordinates didn't want to spend several minutes looking it up on paper maps, but pulled out their phone and simply googled "coordinates of _____", and didn't notice they had looked up the wrong Jarun by mistake.

Some US places are named after the East-European/Russian counterparts...

[Shpaget]

They are digging it up.

There are two conflicting statements from DOD. One said that a debris fragment indicated a possibility that the drone carried explosives, the other one that since it's a reconnaissance drone, that it is highly unlikely.
In any case, they're taking it slowly.

They've found the black box (it's orange, BTW) which seems to have suffered only minor damage, so it should give us some info.

[Shpaget]

Minister of defense confirmed it was a bomb. Detonator and unspecified other bomb fragments have been found. Identification of the type of explosive is underway.

[DDE]

3 hours ago, Shpaget said:

One said that a debris fragment indicated a possibility that the drone carried explosives, the other one that since it's a reconnaissance drone, that it is highly unlikely.

 

2 hours ago, Shpaget said:

Minister of defense confirmed it was a bomb. Detonator and unspecified other bomb fragments have been found. Identification of the type of explosive is underway.

A working UCAV conversion is highly unlikely, so... cruise missile? Combined with a shootdown over Crimea (Krasnoperekopsk, specifically), this does sound like an attempt at attacks deep within the Russian rear. There was one successful Tochka-U ballistic strike against the airfield in Millerovo, and a failed one at the airport in Taganrog; Tu-141s would have several times that range. Heck, if 1000 km is their operational range, they'd have slightly more range 'one-way range' than a conventionally-armed Kalibr.

 

Edited March 13, 2022 by DDE

[K^2]

Seems like a very haphazard attempt for a very questionable gain. [snip]

I hope we get good flight recorder data at any rate, since that has been apparently recovered. That will tell us precisely where it was launched from.

Edited March 13, 2022 by Vanamonde

[kerbiloid]

3 hours ago, DDE said:

A working UCAV conversion is highly unlikely, so... cruise missile?

Tu-141 is derived from the cruise missile (Tu-121 → Tu-123 → Tu-141).

[Shpaget]

[snip]

I suppose investigation is considering it too, but I'd expect that to be officially mentioned only after they're sure, one way or the other. So far NATO said they were monitoring it "entire time" (I'm not exactly sure what that means) so there may be more to this than we're told.

Edited March 13, 2022 by Vanamonde

[wumpus]

12 hours ago, kerbiloid said:

Some US places are named after the East-European/Russian counterparts...

Quick note: East Berlin, Pennsylvania predates the division (and later unification) of Berlin.  I didn't see a "Berlin" nearby that would otherwise justify the name.

Tiny place (small enough that  an assumed "Berlin" might have disappeared without a trace).  Had a job interview there.  It didn't go well (suspect I was disqualified for age on sight.  Or something.  Don't think I had a chance from the start).

[Admiral Fluffy]

9 hours ago, Shpaget said:

They've found the black box (it's orange, BTW) which seems to have suffered only minor damage, so it should give us some info.

I wonder why you would have a orange black box on something that is meant to explode.

[kerbiloid]

Isn't the explosive charge just a self-destruction device of a recon drone.