Far Future Spaceflight Predictions

[Spacescifi]

Far Future Spaceflight Predictions

1. So long we cannot defy gravity by outright negating it's effects, two stage to orbt or more will always be in style.

2. The more advanced spaceflight becomes, the more energy will be required for it.

3. Advanced spaceflight will never, ever be not potentially be very dangerous to all involved in it.

4. If heavy SSTO's ever do become a reality using their own power, if they are using either rocketry or bombs for thrust then they will wreck the launch site and maybe even radiate several kilometers. One more reason why two staging is preferred even if you can do better. Launch boosters can be optimized for launch,while uber space engines are best used... in space.

 

You may share your predictions too...

[cubinator]

I think two-stage rapidly reusable lifters will be popular on Earth, single stage ones almost everywhere else. Unless maybe some really huge single-stage rockets get made for Earth.

Moon and other smallish bodies will have a rail system built that sends cargo into orbit. 

High-energy propulsion such as nuclear saltwater can be explored and developed away from Earth, such as at Mars or the Asteroid Belt. Explosions here will not disrupt the delicate biosphere.

Someone will probably attempt to terraform Mars, and maybe Venus too. This is a long-term (~1000 years) effort and would only succeed if humanity achieves very sound footing socially. 

By the point humanity has either stopped aging, invented adequate hibernation, or created/integrated with sentient AI the first trips to the Stars will begin.

[wumpus]

SSTO (from Earth) more or less requires air breathers.  With three-digit Isp (or similar "magic"), Earth SSTO becomes a possibility.  Of course,  it might still be more effective to use TSTO even with an airbreather, moreso with something like a SABER, less so if you get something like a X-43 engine taking you to mach 10.  Of course, X-43 only really made it to mach 6.8 under its own power and only barely maintained mach 10 (positive acceleration was in the center of the error bars, not outside them).

And "either rocketry or bombs for thrust then they will wreck the launch site"?  You really need to try this game called "Kerbal Space Program" (I heard they finally finished development): it will teach you about the difference between thrust and delta-v.  You need "magic" Isp for SSTO.  Thrust really doesn't enter into the rocket equation (while it helps use a bit less fuel at first as your effective thrust is 1-TWR, big engines are the enemy of SSTO).

[JoeSchmuckatelli]

Realistically - we're not getting out of the local system unless/until we discover some relevant exceptions to Einstein/Newton.

It's why Warp/Hyper is all the rage in Sci-Fi.  (I actually liked what Lucas did in StarWars - which he subsequently screwed up in the later shows... as did Disney).

The interesting one is what Pournelle did with the Moties... but that's unlikely too.

We need to UnDark DarkEnergy

[Spacescifi]

 

 

One more prediction:

5. Higher energy propulsion would allow for things that would not be practical or possible now.

Imagine a 2 stage spaceship with a booster that flies straight up, wihout even curving for a suborbital trajectory.

It detaches and fires upper rockets atop it downward from the second stage.... which is a project Orion vessel.

 

The orion flips over with RCS and engages the bomb propulsion via the plate and pistons for orbiting.

 

Disregarding all the reasons why it is a no no today... what if we found a way to make sufficiently powerful bombs that were also small enough so the Orion did not have to be any heavier or bigger than say... Spacex Starship?

 

Just because nukes and antimatter are all the rage does not mean other forms of condensed energy storage could be found in the future that may either be easier for storage or more higher energy still.

It does not have to be a nuke bomb or an AM bomb per se.

If we ever manage to make metastable metallic hydrogen we could use that for SSTO's... at the expense of leaving a crater at launch or landing.

 

People say the engine would melt, but honestly why not just scale up the combustion chamber and engine enough so that it won't melt?

I guess because the extra weight negates the the high TWR and high ISP.

And lightweight materials that are strong enough are expensive.

Alternately MH bombs could sub for nukes or AM in atmosphere.

Hopefully alternative to nukes and AM is found in the future that either stores energy more efficiently or is easier to handle.

 

Edited August 23, 2021 by Spacescifi

[JoeSchmuckatelli]

@Spacescifi - look into what people are trying to do with Fusion.  The magnetic control of plasma gets around your 'melt the engines' problem.

Figure that out and we're off to the races!

[kerbiloid]

KSP 4: Quantum Edition.

[Spacescifi]

1 hour ago, JoeSchmuckatelli said:

@Spacescifi - look into what people are trying to do with Fusion.  The magnetic control of plasma gets around your 'melt the engines' problem.

Figure that out and we're off to the races!

Magnetic fields slip stuff through, great for nozzles..... absolute containment? Not yet Who knows when or ever.  And hot radiation will not care about magnetic fields and still heat stuff, which is fusion more or less.

Merely amping the power on solid electromagnets has limits (they will break apart eventually, coils).

 

Perhaps the future electrosupermagnets will be fluid or flexible materials that won't break when amping the magnetic force beyond 500 Tesla?

[MKI]

I have 2 guesses:

1. Humanity destroys itself before becoming an interstellar civilization.

2. Humanity will build a quantum computer AI system that is used to solve most complex engineering problems, giving us fusion and advanced space flight within current physics understanding. There's only a few theoretical walls to a lot of problems that are hard to break, from agriculture to energy. Even brute force production of existing technology can get us to multiplanetary (hello Elon). Quantum Computers can be the gateway to a ton of solutions through brute computational power. If its theoretically possible, it might be only a matter of time and energy before engineering a solution through advance quantum computers. 

 

Its possible both can happen, but 1 is always on the table until we go interstellar and then get into a giant AI war

 

 

[JoeSchmuckatelli]

29 minutes ago, MKI said:

have 2 guesses:

1. Humanity destroys itself before becoming an interstellar civilization.

2. Humanity will build a quantum computer AI system that enslaves us

FTFY 

(I've seen both shows) 

Edited August 23, 2021 by JoeSchmuckatelli

[SunlitZelkova]

Some near future stuff is integral to the far future predictions, so here it is-

2022-2027: *Artemis stuff*

2026: Chinese crewed lunar flyby

2027: All aerospace related sites in China and the US are destroyed in a nuclear war.

2031: JAXA, more or less non-functioning for four years, is shut down as what little money there is is re-directed to recovery from the war

2052: Humans return to the Moon for the third time via an ESA-*Russian space organization* crewed program

2080: By this year, the population has dropped drastically around the world due to the economic disruption from the 2027 nuclear war, aftermath effects of the war, and ensuing degeneration of technological development that followed

2095: Environmental collapse starts to have serious effects on humanity in the Northern Hemisphere. Famine ensues, and another nuclear war occurs.

2111: 100th anniversary of KSP is honored across South America

2194: Environmental collapse catches up to the rest of the world. Human civilization collapses after a mass famine, with humanity being reduced to a few relic populations.

*Ultra far future*: Cavia porcellus, once the unwilling test subjects of man, evolve to become the second intelligent species to walk the Earth

*Ultra far(therer) future*: Cavia porcellus successfully does what humanity fails to do- build an Alcubierre drive

*Ultra far(thererer) future*: Cavia porcellus builds an empire across the universe, enslaving other intelligent species around the galaxy

*Ultra far(therererer) future*: Universe ends in one hypothesis way or another. Cavia porcellus successfully figures out inter-universal travel and while their slaves are abandoned, the guinea pigs all board an ark to travel to another universe where the solar system never formed.

On a more serious note, while I understand this is a casual discussion more so for entertainment than serious predictions, I think that predicting the far future is a futile exercise, not to be taken seriously at all. I can't help but think that when the far future actually comes around, the 2021 predictions of the "far future" will be treated much the same as 1950s predictions of the 21st century- with laughter, and the "predicters" will be seen as "having known nothing".

[MKI]

59 minutes ago, JoeSchmuckatelli said:

2. Humanity will build a quantum computer AI system that enslaves us

FTFY 

(I've seen both shows) 

Its a fun idea, but first I don't think a quantum computer AI system would be the "skynet" type system I'm talking about before you see benefits. I was originally thinking an advanced Alexa/Google-Home/Seri, except it is used to manage quantum computer infrastructure that is then used to solve difficult problems. Its still just as dumb as our current tech, but magnitudes more powerful and just used to solve specific difficult problems.

Second I don't see why even a sentient AI system would enslave us. Mainly because there is little overlap between an silicon based system needs and humans. Because of that an AI system could just build its own workers to accomplish its own needs, rather than cater to humans and then have them work. The idea of an AI enslaving humanity means we are useful to such an intelligent entity, except I can't see how that is the case. Its possible AI would just more or less ignore us. Something as simple as the AI moving all its facilities to Mercury to gather more energy as it builds its own capabilities to expand, would be totally sensible for it and be totally fine for humans and the AI.

It will probably be benevolent and just does its own thing, and yes the worse case of it destroying all of us is on the table... but then it doesn't get any benefits from doing that since again its needs are different than our needs. It seems much more sensible that a super advanced intelligent AI just works with us and keeps us around for the sake of it because you never know when humans might be useful, or at least a novelty. 

Regardless, the AI systems I'm talking about would be incredible powerful... but still too stupid beyond its given use-case to "enslave everyone". I'm thinking more super power computers that can run simulations way beyond our current computation capabilities. The computers might be crazy more powerful, but they are still just as dumb.

 

Our current understanding of AI isn't anywhere near "skynet" intelligence, and doesn't need to be to really reap the benefits of our current understanding of AI and advancements in quantum computing to get the ultimate computational power boost. 

 

 

[SOXBLOX]

3 hours ago, SunlitZelkova said:

*Ultra far(therererer) future*

Hilarious post; questionable tense construction. 

My predictions? Earth devolves into chaos as stagnant real wages and the increasing balkanization of culture catch up with us, while Elon and a select few move to orbital stations around Mars.

Or America catches Manifest Destiny Syndrome and forms an empire; starts adding stars to the flag by force, fueling a massive expansion into space.

Hey, that last one actually sounds cool...

[SpaceFace545]

21 minutes ago, SOXBLOX said:

Or America catches Manifest Destiny Syndrome and forms an empire; starts adding stars to the flag by force, fueling a massive expansion into space.

The Great American Empire Part II: Electric Boogaloo

 

Now with extra democracy!!!

[Spaceman.Spiff]

I think near future exploration will be enabled by Nuclear-electric and nuclear thermal

Far future exploration and expansion will be centered around fusion based torch propulsion 

[SpaceFace545]

I feel that far future tech will mostly centered around torch drives as previously stated but I think 200 - 500 years from now we will start tinkering with magic like warp drives and the like. 

[kerbiloid]

2040. The Matrix buys KSP license and installs it. Now humans are twice shorter and can fly to Eeloo.

[wumpus]

18 hours ago, JoeSchmuckatelli said:

[2. Humanity will build a quantum computer AI system that enslaves us] FTFY 

(I've seen both shows) 

You don't need a quantum computer AI to run a corporation.  People (preferably psychopaths, but that is more a feature than a requirement) do it fine already.  Although perhaps the AI will be able to put more effort into maximizing control of the workforce and market and be less concerned with board level politics.