totm nov 2023 SpaceX Discussion Thread

[sevenperforce]

Just now, Xd the great said:

Well, if space tourism costs can be lowered to USD 10000 per 1 week/2 week stay, loads of people will pay for it.

Cha-ching.

Also, mining the Moon. For resources.

I am not sure there is enough money in space tourism to make space tourism experience significant growth, even at those prices.

There is nothing on the Moon we cannot find on Earth, other than the fact that it is on the moon, which is useful if you need propellant in space, which only works if you already have a use for it.

[Terwin]

16 hours ago, Codraroll said:

For all this, Starship would mostly be used to tug modules and materials into orbit, with the crew launched on other launch vehicles (including SLS, because Congress gotta Congress), but now it takes the role as supply ship as well. Between the various stations, a three-digit number of people are in orbit at the same time, and hotel chains are beginning to contract modules as well. The launch cadence capability of the spaceports might be the limiting factors for how often they can launch at this point. Operating these stations is hellishly more expensive than the ISS ever was, but more value is added per dollar spent than before as well. A whole ecosystem of space companies join in on the fun as well. The mission control operations would quickly outgrow the capacity of Houston Space Center, for instance, so maybe another private company starts offering its services. For every astronaut in space one needs a large group of people on the ground, so this could be a sizable sector of the economy before long. Yet other companies may contract a Starship launch or two to send prospecting probes to promising asteroids. Probes not built at JPL or KSC, but at Harry's Spacecraft Shack in Smalltown, America.

The ISS is a one-off government funded research station that is more of an international partnership than a research station.

If someone wanted to make a much more cost-efficient space station, it should not be too hard to do so.

The cost per person in space is also a factor of tradition over need.  With an easier to resupply station, built and resupplied by starship, it need not be overly expensive, and much of the monitoring done right now could cover additional stations with little or no extra cost.(monitoring and emergency readiness for one station is not really cheaper than emergency readiness for half a dozen stations)

The ore people we get into space, the more experience we have working there, the lower the cost per person, and the safer/more reliable things will get.

 

in short, if you have the only car in the county, you need to retain your own mechanic, but if you live in a city with 10,000 cars, you just hire a mechanic when you need one.

[tater]

 

[RCgothic]

So Starship/Superheavy can launch 150t to LEO with RTLS.

What could it do landing downrange on one of the super-platforms being considered? Over 200t?

[tater]

6 minutes ago, RCgothic said:

So Starship/Superheavy can launch 150t to LEO with RTLS.

What could it do landing downrange on one of the super-platforms being considered? Over 200t?

I want to say that Musk said that the F9 payload hit for downrange was 18% vs expended, and 40% for RTLS.

The vehicle mass in this case needs to be included, as well as reserve props for EDL.

Edited June 23, 2020 by tater

[tater]

SN7 totally white now.

 

 

[tater]

 

BOOM

 

 

[Nightside]

2 hours ago, Xd the great said:

Well, if space tourism costs can be lowered to USD 10000 per 1 week/2 week stay, loads of people will pay for it.

Cha-ching.

Also, mining the Moon. For resources.

I'm surprised no one has proposed some sort of zero-g MMA battle. Seems like the sort of bad idea Elon would love.

[tater]

 

Robodog to the scene:

 

[RealKerbal3x]

RIP SN7! I wonder how much pressure it survived.

[sevenperforce]

8 minutes ago, tater said:

That was spectacular.

[kerbiloid]

Too much stress at the job.

[SOXBLOX]

5 hours ago, Xd the great said:

Well, if space tourism costs can be lowered to USD 10000 per 1 week/2 week stay, loads of people will pay for it.

Cha-ching.

Also, mining the Moon. For resources.

Mining the Moon for what? Have you ever heard the phrase "selling coal to Newcastle" ?

No one on Earth wants anything the Moon has to offer, with the exception of the odd planetary geologist.

 "Loads of people". Like "the average American" , the only place they exist is on paper.

3 hours ago, Nightside said:

I'm surprised no one has proposed some sort of zero-g MMA battle. Seems like the sort of bad idea Elon would love.

Quiet! Don't give him any ideas!

[Terwin]

3 hours ago, Nightside said:

I'm surprised no one has proposed some sort of zero-g MMA battle. Seems like the sort of bad idea Elon would love.

MMA would be an awful ting to try and convert to zero-g: effective striking would be almost impossible, and attempting to maneuver would be iffy at best.

Something like ballet or gymnastics might work much better.

A zero-g ballet or gymnastics exhibition would get people thinking about grace and artistry in relation to space, as opposed to thinking about blood and death in space.

Imagine a small troupe of acrobats performing in zero g similar to a group of trapeze artists but without all the swinging back and forth between stunts, using the wall/ceiling/floor along with some carefully placed poles or handles.

Could easily become part of the attractions at a space-hotel.('Like no show on earth!').

[CatastrophicFailure]

14 minutes ago, Terwin said:

MMA would be an awful ting to try and convert to zero-g: effective striking would be almost impossible, and attempting to maneuver would be iffy at best.

Something like ballet or gymnastics might work much better.

A zero-g ballet or gymnastics exhibition would get people thinking about grace and artistry in relation to space, as opposed to thinking about blood and death in space.

Imagine a small troupe of acrobats performing in zero g similar to a group of trapeze artists but without all the swinging back and forth between stunts, using the wall/ceiling/floor along with some carefully placed poles or handles.

Could easily become part of the attractions at a space-hotel.('Like no show on earth!').

I’m just gonna leave this here... 

...apparently this was actually studied...

[Shpaget]

So, was the failure successful? 

[CatastrophicFailure]

14 minutes ago, Shpaget said:

So, was the failure successful? 

well, it successfully failed. Also, there’s this:

 

So one way or the other they’re forging ahead.

And also, this:

 

[kerbiloid]

The pressure tests can be either dull, or spectacular...

[cubinator]

11 minutes ago, kerbiloid said:

The pressure tests can be either dull, or spectacular...

I'm happy that the only pressure tests I've been part of have been dull...except for one where the control box started smoking, but that wasn't related to pressure...

[tater]

 

[StrandedonEarth]

Zooming waaaaay in... Why yes, it does look like Zeus.

So did they not bolt the test stand down?

[zolotiyeruki]

4 hours ago, SOXBLOX said:

 "Loads of people". Like "the average American" , the only place they exist is on paper.

There are tens or hundreds of thousands of people who spend $10k+ on a week at Walt Disney World.  I have zero doubt they'll find plenty of customers.

[wumpus]

6 hours ago, SOXBLOX said:

Mining the Moon for what? Have you ever heard the phrase "selling coal to Newcastle" ?

No one on Earth wants anything the Moon has to offer, with the exception of the odd planetary geologist.

 "Loads of people". Like "the average American" , the only place they exist is on paper.

Quiet! Don't give him any ideas!

It costs $25k just for the permit to climb Everest.  Don't forget the cost to travel to one of the most remote parts of the world, and stay until you at least acclimate to base camp.

It looks like only 700 to 1,000 cough up the money (and take the risk) to climb (although 35,000 visit base camp) each year.  About half make it to the top.  And about four are left dead on the mountain each year.

I doubt they will have much trouble selling tickets.  Of course,  a lot depends on how impressive it is on the cocktail party circuit.

[SOXBLOX]

Even if orbital tourism did work economically (I think that it does not), it would still not encourage large-scale economic growth in the spaceflight sector. SpaceX loves to do everything in house. Even if it did, it would not be growth in the right way, that is, it would not promote long-term colonization of space. Naturally, I'm assuming this is what you want it to do.I

Also, Disneyworld and Everest do not equal picnics to LEO. 

It's not that I have a problem with orbital tourism, I just see it as an attempt by spaceflight fans to find an economic justification for spaceflight efforts; something of which there is precious little. And don't you dare mention asteroid mining, I've heard all that before!

Edited June 24, 2020 by SOXBLOX

[tater]

1 hour ago, zolotiyeruki said:

There are tens or hundreds of thousands of people who spend $10k+ on a week at Walt Disney World.  I have zero doubt they'll find plenty of customers.

We spent something like that, but it was for 2 adults and 2 kids.

20 minutes ago, wumpus said:

It costs $25k just for the permit to climb Everest.  Don't forget the cost to travel to one of the most remote parts of the world, and stay until you at least acclimate to base camp.

It looks like only 700 to 1,000 cough up the money (and take the risk) to climb (although 35,000 visit base camp) each year.  About half make it to the top.  And about four are left dead on the mountain each year.

I doubt they will have much trouble selling tickets.  Of course,  a lot depends on how impressive it is on the cocktail party circuit.

Visiting Nepal is actually not that bad money wise, but yeah, the climbing permit is expensive (I've spent almost 5 months in Nepal over the years).

There is certainly a subset of people willing to do extreme travel (climbing Everest is past "adventure travel").

7 minutes ago, SOXBLOX said:

Even if orbital tourism did work economically (I think that it does not), it would still not encourage large-scale economic growth in the spaceflight sector. SpaceX loves to do everything in house. Even if it did, it would not be growth in the right way, that is, it would not promote long-term colonization of space. Naturally, I'm assuming this is what you want it to do.I

Also, Disneyworld and Everest do not equal picnics to LEO. 

Yeah, while I'm not sanguine about super safe orbital travel, if that could be a thing, then orbital tourism is the "killer app" for spaceflight, IMO.

The hurdles to get to what I would consider the minimal point for that are incredibly high, however.

They'd need airline safety levels for any mass travel. So if they could make P2P work (again, very, very hard, IMO), orbital comes along for the ride. Build a destination—because all destinations for humans in space need to be built first—then send people. This is with their P2P aspirational price goals, mind you. I'd love it to happen, but won't be holding my breath.

At some safety level below that you get various levels of "adventure" travel for people willing to accept more risk. That's probably a market, but it still requires a price point well below current Virgin pricing for their 11 minute joy ride.