Chinese Space Program (CNSA) & Ch. commercial launch and discussion

[kerbiloid]

51 minutes ago, Beccab said:

I'm not completely sure since I didn't follow the CNSA back then, but didn't they already have a smaller, single launch space station before this one?

They called so a Soyuz with cylindric habitat instead of spherical.

[SunlitZelkova]

2 hours ago, Beccab said:

I'm not completely sure since I didn't follow the CNSA back then, but didn't they already have a smaller, single launch space station before this one?

Yes. Tiangong-1 completely disappeared from my head when I was writing the post lol.

[SunlitZelkova]

Amidst the news of the GAO report on NASA's lunar lander, more info regarding China's crewed lunar lander-

https://spacenews.com/china-is-working-on-a-lander-for-human-moon-missions/

It's not clear what exactly the design is still, but this the main proposed design-

The currently studied architecture is LOR, with the lander and crew vehicle launching separately, rendezvousing in lunar orbit, the crew then landing, then ascending and docking to the crew vehicle, then return to Earth.

[JoeSchmuckatelli]

Having built a bunch of rovers that look just like that (far right) - they're in for nothing but frustration. No grip, wheels that inexplicably turn the wrong way, steering like a spastic fawn... It's like they never played KSP. 

[SunlitZelkova]

So there are a number of Falcon 9 analogs in China (that look superficially identical to the Falcon 9), and now here is a Chinese New Shepard analog, but more sophisticated-

It will be interesting to see how this works out. There has been discouragement of "bourgeois" activities in recent years by the CPC, so this is a little weird of a proposal to make now for one thing. China is also likely on the verge of abandoning its minimum deterrence policy and instead going full-MAD, and considering the main state-owned space companies in China are also ballistic missile manufacturers, they may have to devote time and resources to building missiles over the coming decade, which will force some cuts to their space projects. I think scientific probes and the next generation of crewed spaceflight vehicles, including the ILRS, will take precedence over space tourism and exotic LEO projects.

The 2020s  for China could end up like the 1960s in the USSR for space, simultaneously building up the nuclear arsenal and "distracting" from space. Except China has the money, manpower, will, and management skills to actually go to space at the same time, so while at least the primary projects will succeed like the continuation of the CSS and the lunar program, I think we may see cancellation of some of the "other" projects, namely the numerous spaceplanes under development (some of which are redundant and run counter to the reusable rocket programs). It is just hard to see the Chinese state-owned and private space companies having enough money to realize all of the grand power point slides seen recently in metal, and simultaneously build some 500-600 ICBMs.

[kerbiloid]

1 hour ago, SunlitZelkova said:

So there are a number of Falcon 9 analogs in China (that look superficially identical to the Falcon 9)

OMG... SpX bought Falcon on AliExpress???!!!...

Edited August 17, 2021 by kerbiloid

[Codraroll]

1 hour ago, kerbiloid said:

OMG... SpX bought Falcon on AliExpress???!!!...

Alternate title: China is actively developing new rockets, Russia isn't.

[kerbiloid]

5 minutes ago, Codraroll said:

China is actively developing new rockets, Russia isn't.

Russia has tested it several times, and it's the time to wait until the lunar program gets required (i.e. by 2030).

[DDE]

2 hours ago, SunlitZelkova said:

and simultaneously build some 500-600 ICBMs.

 

[JoeSchmuckatelli]

13 minutes ago, DDE said:

 

I'm missing the context to understand these. 

I'm aware that CN is building ICBM fields - but can you break this down 'Barney' - style for the Jarhead? 

 

 

 

 

*International explanation of Barney-Style:

= 'So this audience can understand' 

 

Edited August 17, 2021 by JoeSchmuckatelli

[DDE]

1 minute ago, JoeSchmuckatelli said:

I'm aware that CN is building ICBM fields - but can you break this down 'Barney' - style for the Jarhead? 

There are two theses here.

One is that it's far from certain these are ICBM fields - hence maligning that Twitter OSINT may be jumping the gun, and especially that everyone around Twitter OSINT is hyping it up.

The second one refers to the "shell game" concept explored for the M-X Peacekeeper: not all of those silos may be intended to have missiles in them. Strategists value silos for their ability to attract and absorb a lot of enemy MIRVs to guarantee destruction, compared with fragile truck-mobile missiles and invulnerable SLBMs. An empty silo would do the job just as well so long as the enemy is made to believe it may be full.

[kerbiloid]

And sometimes silos are just silos.

[DDE]

3 hours ago, kerbiloid said:

And sometimes silos are just silos.

Beware the peaceful tractor

Spoiler

 

[JoeSchmuckatelli]

Those are pretty good at churning the dirt 

Edited August 17, 2021 by JoeSchmuckatelli

[SOXBLOX]

12 hours ago, kerbiloid said:

Russia has tested it several times, and it's the time to wait until the lunar program gets required (i.e. by 2030).

By 2030? Well, if it takes 13 years for Russia to build and launch a module mostly complete...you'd better get started yesterday! 

12 hours ago, DDE said:

The second one refers to the "shell game" concept explored for the M-X Peacekeeper: not all of those silos may be intended to have missiles in them. Strategists value silos for their ability to attract and absorb a lot of enemy MIRVs to guarantee destruction, compared with fragile truck-mobile missiles and invulnerable SLBMs. An empty silo would do the job just as well so long as the enemy is made to believe it may be full.

I'm absolutely not anything close to an expert, but I think it's the shell game. I don't think they can churn out 500+ new nuclear weapons and RVs. 

[kerbiloid]

4 hours ago, SOXBLOX said:

By 2030? Well, if it takes 13 years for Russia to build and launch a module mostly complete...you'd better get started yesterday!

You have seen the ROSS modules under construction, and there were several launches of Angara.
Different variants of Angara consist of different number of the same booster block which has been tested.

And I even can't remember when the US built bought from Italians the last heavy orbital module they launched.

Of course, there are Bigelow and Axiom. Nice pictures. As the Starship is.

In fact, only Russia and China have delivered a new module this year sevensome-year.

Edited August 18, 2021 by kerbiloid

[SunlitZelkova]

20 hours ago, DDE said:

 

Yes, but there still will be new ICBMs even if most of those siloes are decoys. Assuming the best case scenario of 10 MIRVs (last time I checked the exact number isn't known), and China goes from whatever their exact stockpile is now (assuming the "worst" case scenario where it is 200) to the DOD estimate of 600, that's... oh... 40 new ICBMs... never mind.

8 hours ago, SOXBLOX said:

By 2030? Well, if it takes 13 years for Russia to build and launch a module mostly complete...you'd better get started yesterday! 

I'm absolutely not anything close to an expert, but I think it's the shell game. I don't think they can churn out 500+ new nuclear weapons and RVs. 

I know the first sentence is a joke, but it is important to note that Nauka's development will not equate with the ROSS and Russian portion of the ILRS. Nauka began at the absolutely darkest period of the Russian space program in terms of funding (and maybe morale too, although I am not sure) and thus it ended up taking that long. Russia of today is not Russia of the 90s, so development will hopefully be more smooth.

China's stockpile is 350 ish as of 2020. The DOD says they "will" increase it to 600. I forgot when I wrote the post, but the DF-41 is supposed to be MIRVed. So regardless of the number of ICBMs, they "will" build a fair number of new weapons. China of today is not China of say, the 80s, and their nuclear industry is very developed (not that that necessarily has anything to do with weapons manufacturing). I think they certainly could if the want to (although I did indeed make a mistake. It "is" not 500 but actually more like 200-300ish or so).

And RVs (regardless of the warhead) are presumably easy as they have been building large numbers of conventional ballistic missiles. HGVs may steal the show though soon.

[magnemoe]

On 8/12/2021 at 12:21 AM, SunlitZelkova said:

Amidst the news of the GAO report on NASA's lunar lander, more info regarding China's crewed lunar lander-

https://spacenews.com/china-is-working-on-a-lander-for-human-moon-missions/

It's not clear what exactly the design is still, but this the main proposed design-

The currently studied architecture is LOR, with the lander and crew vehicle launching separately, rendezvousing in lunar orbit, the crew then landing, then ascending and docking to the crew vehicle, then return to Earth.

The rocket is an heavy like falcon and delta but the side tanks are a bit shorter. 
Looks like stage 2 uses hydrolox while first stage and boosters probably uses RP1. The 3rd stage is different again and I guess hypergolic. This makes sense if they carry the stage to Mun orbit but the capsule also has an good sized service module who looks like it should be capable of getting into and out of moon orbit and the 3rd stage too large.
in short the 3rd stage is weird. 

Lunar lander decent stage with an crash stage, looks like you can dock an reusable accent module to it. 

Something I guess is their lunar gateway station and an good sized pressurized rover 

[DDE]

1 hour ago, SunlitZelkova said:

China's stockpile is 350 ish as of 2020. The DOD says they "will" increase it to 600.

DoD (DIA) projections are like fusion.

[CFYL]

news link text in Chinese (from a somehow official platform)

news link text in English (from a slightly less official platform)

After 92 Earth days the rover has moved 889m and transmitted 10GB of data back to ground stations. This is said to be the end of planned mission and the rover will still carry out other scientific tasks as everything on it still works fine.

Spoiler

(It can be inferred that any breakdowns after this announcement will be "unplanned" and therefore "highly possible", so the media will not question CASC about quality control.) Usually the rover can work fine long after the announcement, but even as a Chinese I believe it cannot outlive the Curiosity.

 

[JoeSchmuckatelli]

Even if only a prestige project - the simple fact of accomplishment is noteworthy. Any scientific knowledge obtained is icing on the cake.  But sometimes you have to do a thing to learn how to do it better the next time. 

The US flying a drone is similar - proof that something can be done and learning how to make it more capable for the next time. 

[CFYL]

One of China's major aerospace institutes (CAST, others include CASC, CNSA, etc.) released a feature video ~3 days ago. I've got some interesting pictures about potential future missions from the video. (most of it is about what it has done) All these are just from the video itself and may or may not be carried out in recent years due to reasons discussed above.

This one is the CSS. (OK old thing, but its construction will certainly be finished in a few years using LM-5.)

 

This is China's next-gen lunar exploration vehicle?  (said to be 4th gen in the vid. It seems to contain a lander and a permanent orbiter, but it is unknown where the (promised) sample returen module is. In the video the smallest cubesat in prograde direction of the ship is decoupled in moon orbit and extends its solar panel after separation, so it can't be sample return.)

 

This may be the future moon base at the south pole that China plans to build with Russia. Although this is an official video, it may have been made by people who are better at graphics than aerospace so a rocket with spaceplane&fairing&SRBs appeared in the back of the scene. (It looks exactly like the Americal space shuttle lol.) The buildings exposed to space and therefore potential micro-meteorolites are probably not part of the actual plan. The glass cage shown is presumably China's second moon rover Yutu-2, which currently operates in South Pole-Aitken basin. In the video it is "caught" back as an artifact in a micro-museum. The facilities between the rover and the lauchpad are possibly related to fuel or energy production. I see no solar panels so it may be a mining scene extracting water or Helium3? (This part is only video with no information-rich audio or even a subtitle.)

 

This part also has no subtitle. It is evident that the vehicle contains a nuclear reactor and (high-power?) hall thrusters, so it may be used in manned deep-space missions since there appears to be windows on the last 2 modules. Planet Saturn. Mars (and Jupiter, not included in this picture) are shown in the background.

This is the vid link if you would like to see it

https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1pq4y1M7N1

[DDE]

1 hour ago, AllenLi said:

This part also has no subtitle. It is evident that the vehicle contains a nuclear reactor and (high-power?) hall thrusters, so it may be used in manned deep-space missions since there appears to be windows on the last 2 modules. Planet Saturn. Mars (and Jupiter, not included in this picture) are shown in the background.

This is the vid link if you would like to see it

The curved panels looks awfully familiar.

And I don't mean this:

Spoiler

 

[JoeSchmuckatelli]

Was gonna say - looks like the ship that WOT guy built 

[DDE]

22 minutes ago, DDE said:

The curved panels looks awfully familiar

@AllenLi, I shouldn't browse Atomic Rockets at work this much, so I'll stop at having identified a similar configuration among NASA HOPE spacecraft design studies.

http://www.projectrho.com/public_html/rocket/images/realdesigns/hopebntr02.jpg

http://www.projectrho.com/public_html/rocket/images/realdesigns/hopebntr11.jpg