Kilauea erupting 2018

[1101]

I daresay many people here are aware of Kilauea currently erupting, but for anyone who doesn't know, here was a livestream (not sure when it ended):

 

Current Status of the whole situation here, courtesy of USGS.

Map as of about mdnight (UTC) 19th May:

Thermal map, base image is not current, but Thermal was as of about 0100UTC 19/5:

Lighter colours are hotter.  On the right where it is labeled as stalled it would seem to be poking through again - will be interesting to see the next image. 

Edited May 19, 2018 by 1101

[YNM]

I'm actually surprised they were allowed to build houses close to areas of possible fissures.

[1101]

2 hours ago, YNM said:

I'm actually surprised they were allowed to build houses close to areas of possible fissures.

I was surprised too, but this explains it:

Quote

While the USGS prepared and made available the Lava-Flow Hazard Zone Map for general information and planning by land-use managers, there is no legislation requiring its use. The USGS provides hazard information but cannot advocate for, or require, its usage for a specific purpose. Thus, this question is best directed to the County of Hawai&3699; Planning Department.

from https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/faq_lava.html

Hazard map available here.

The main argument I've seen is that people build in floodplains, earthquake zones, tornado areas, hurricane areas etc too, but that feels more like a lack of geohazard planning being a species wide thing.

[YNM]

39 minutes ago, 1101 said:

but that feels more like a lack of geohazard planning being a species wide thing.

Yeah.

But you could plan for floods. You could prepare for the wind. You could ameliorate the earthquakes. Not much to do for molten rocks.

The estates aren't a relic of distant past aren't they ? If they are, I wouldn't be too surprised (though I'd be surprised if the entire thing caught by surprise), but if it isn't, seems like a ridiculous oversight.

I also live in a place where people can't escape natural disasters (the lands are only here thanks to volcanoes, and the volcanoes are only here thanks to plate subduction), and we care freak-all about planning for such events, because most people can't even be sure whether they could eat in the next few month. We only care that our crops can grow, the livestock can graze and they aren't getting stolen. Even if that means going close to an active volcano, or living in floodbanks.

But I thought, this being the US, suurely they have raised their bars a bit ?

Edited May 19, 2018 by YNM

[kerbiloid]

Reminds me of From Dust

Spoiler

 

 

[XB-70A]

Maybe the lesson will be learned one day.

Despite what happened more than a century ago, Saint-Pierre has been rebuilt and re-inhabited and the Montagne Pelée is only sleeping. Hopefully, the peoples from Plymouth definitely left their area for a safer sector since 97, the Soufrière still being active.

[NSEP]

1 hour ago, kerbiloid said:

Reminds me of From Dust

  Hide contents

 

 

Oooh that was my favourite game.

sorry

[1101]

4 hours ago, YNM said:

Yeah.

But you could plan for floods. You could prepare for the wind. You could ameliorate the earthquakes. Not much to do for molten rocks.

The estates aren't a relic of distant past aren't they ? If they are, I wouldn't be too surprised (though I'd be surprised if the entire thing caught by surprise), but if it isn't, seems like a ridiculous oversight.

I also live in a place where people can't escape natural disasters (the lands are only here thanks to volcanoes, and the volcanoes are only here thanks to plate subduction), and we care freak-all about planning for such events, because most people can't even be sure whether they could eat in the next few month. We only care that our crops can grow, the livestock can graze and they aren't getting stolen. Even if that means going close to an active volcano, or living in floodbanks.

But I thought, this being the US, suurely they have raised their bars a bit ?

Well, they have raised their bars a bit in the on the spot hazard mitigation - no casualties from this event.  The USGS have an absurd number of volcanoes to watch, including KIlauea, and have a good understanding of what is going on.  To be fair that has been learned the hard way, for example with Mt St Helens (38 years ago to Yesterday!).

As for other countries, I can't overly say because I don't follow those as much, but the impression I get is that it really is a cultural thing.  Places like Merapi for example seem to have a lot of people who are unwilling to move or can't move for a long period of time if a lengthy evacuation notice is placed.  The reasons for that probably stray too close to politics for this forum.

Planning for floods, I can relate to that as I live near places that flood from tides or rain - and ultimately it does come down to prediction as much as anything else.  If you can evacuate prior to the event, things can be rebuilt afterward.  Evacs and resupplying for people who can't immediately ultimately comes down to relatively low cost, low risk approaches like wading with a boat and a team of first responders.  Yeah, you need a helicopter for Hawaii.

And I believe some of the affected area in Hawaii is actually on a 1955 lava flow, so yes it has been affected before.

[YNM]

10 minutes ago, 1101 said:

Places like Merapi for example seem to have a lot of people who are unwilling to move or can't move for a long period of time if a lengthy evacuation notice is placed.

... Because it is a freakishly fertile land. Nowhere else on Earth you can grow staple crops 4 times a year naturally. And when they got loads of sand, it was probably the largest sand mine ever.

Other cases, they just didn't knew it. They have now mostly moved away.

The same goes to places where landslides are going common.

But these all are only happening in the last decade or so.

10 minutes ago, 1101 said:

And I believe some of the affected area in Hawaii is actually on a 1955 lava flow, so yes it has been affected before.

Yep.

 

Edited May 19, 2018 by YNM

[LordFerret]

5 hours ago, XB-70A said:

Maybe the lesson will be learned one day.

The lesson will not be learned until someone in government comes along and says there will be no taxpayer funding for your rebuilding... and actually sees to it that it's so.

[Lisias]

22 minutes ago, LordFerret said:

The lesson will not be learned until someone in government comes along and says there will be no taxpayer funding for your rebuilding... and actually sees to it that it's so.

What will not happen, as the unhappy politician that dire to do that will not only lose elections for the rest of his life, but will be replaced by another one that will not only undo the act, but also increase the funding. =P

Keep in mind that the money spent on this appears to be much for us, poor taxpayers. But for the government it's cheaper to funding the rebuilding (as it will grease the economic engine, generating taxes) than to try to relocate the people to God know where there's space available, unbalancing the local economy (as labour force will be relocated) and... impairing the tax revenue.

Macro-economics: don't try to understand it, just accept it and move on. =P

[LordFerret]

2 minutes ago, Lisias said:

What will not happen, as the unhappy politician that dire to do that will not only lose elections for the rest of his life, but will be replaced by another one that will not only undo the act, but also increase the funding. =P

Keep in mind that the money spent on this appears to be much for us, poor taxpayers. But for the government it's cheaper to funding the rebuilding (as it will grease the economic engine, generating taxes) than to try to relocate the people to God know where there's space available, unbalancing the local economy (as labour force will be relocated) and... impairing the tax revenue.

Macro-economics: don't try to understand it, just accept it and move on. =P

You might think that, but it's definitely not the case. Considering all past similar episodes in Hawaii, the rebuilding was accomplished by individual home owners and the local economy, I see no change - although these days there are some who think the Gov is coming to their rescue. They aren't. Keep watching. =P

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/17/it-will-be-months-before-lava-from-hawaii-volcano-can-be-removed-from-neighborhoods.html

[StrandedonEarth]

While it is hard to build for volcano resistance, hurricane resistance is just a matter of building codes, and building on a potential floodplain is a matter of planning. I've noticed that recent (farmhouse) buildings in the Fraser Valley are built on mounds, to put them above potential floodwaters. Now that floods are becoming more common due to climate change, people will soon learn to build on mounds or stilts, and not have sunken basements. Just as hurricane areas have learned to add "hurricane clips" to keep the roofs on, and seismic zones have learned how to built to withstand quakes (no more un-reinforced brick!). It's probably tougher to build to withstand a direct hit by a tornado, but some things can be done. As for volcanoes, well, try to build out of the way of potential lava flows, but that's only one of the hazards. The land around volcanoes is usually incredibly productive, so it seems the benefits outweigh the risks.

If we didn't build anywhere where there is risk, well, we wouldn't be building anything anywhere! Although I wouldn't want to build on top of or at the base of a cliff, because that slope is going to fail eventually, in less than geological time scales!

[Gargamel]

11 hours ago, YNM said:

But you could plan for floods.

About 15 years ago we had a series of storms here, a lot of people I know lost their homes due to floods.  They had built in areas that had never been flooded before, and there was no thought that these areas would even been possible to flood.  We got that much water.  We had major highway bridges submerged for days.   So while you can usually plan for flooding, sometimes it sneaks up on you. 

 

But building a home on an active volcano is a different matter altogether.   You pay higher insurance premiums because of it. 

 

3 hours ago, StrandedonEarth said:

, hurricane resistance is just a matter of building codes,

I used to work for a millhosue that would do home interiors for billionaires.  If you weren't worth at least 10 figures, we wouldn't even consider you as a client.  We usually charged around $250,000 per room, depending on the size and complexity.   One of our clients last year was building on Fisher Island in Miami harbor (supposedly the richest per capita per area in the US), and this client had chosen to buy weaker windows that what we recommended.  Now the windows they bought were good, but they were only hurricane resistant, the ones we were recommending were hurricane "Proof".   3/4 of the way through the project, that big hurricane hit Miami last year (I forget the name).  Ruined the the place.  So of course we got to charge them full rate for a complete rebuild. 

[YNM]

2 hours ago, Gargamel said:

So while you can usually plan for flooding, sometimes it sneaks up on you. 

Just because you've planned for the 100-year flood doesn't mean the 200-year won't sneak up on you.

It's a matter of statistics and probability - and the fact that probability sometimes have no effect on what happened.

5 hours ago, StrandedonEarth said:

Although I wouldn't want to build on top of or at the base of a cliff, because that slope is going to fail eventually, in less than geological time scales!

That depends. Some natural slopes, despite "technically" and seemingly unstable, could have existed for a very long time (well above 1000 years, that's a lot for any buildings).

EDIT : After all, if what you want is only "infinitely" stable slopes (the same slope that you get from pouring the granular material), there won't be any slope steeper than 45 degrees.

Edited May 20, 2018 by YNM