DDE Posted April 15, 2020 Share Posted April 15, 2020 Remember this field back from March? This is it now. Feeling old yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superfluous J Posted April 15, 2020 Share Posted April 15, 2020 12 minutes ago, DDE said: Feeling old yet? Yes. But only because I don't remember something that it seems from your post I should, from only a month ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDE Posted April 15, 2020 Share Posted April 15, 2020 1 hour ago, Superfluous J said: Yes. But only because I don't remember something that it seems from your post I should, from only a month ago. Moscow's busy emulating Wuhan's instant hospital. Not exactly as fast, but should provide another 500 ICU-capable beds by late April. Considering we've recorded 3000+ new cases yesterday, it'd be not a moment too soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sh1pman Posted April 15, 2020 Share Posted April 15, 2020 Amazing. The geniuses in Moscow city administration have put security checkpoints at every Metro station to verify lockdown passes. Results: Great job, truly marvelous planning, now every passenger is likely infected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDE Posted April 15, 2020 Share Posted April 15, 2020 Man tries to ram ship with train. Now I've seen everything. 46 minutes ago, sh1pman said: Great job, truly marvelous planning, now every passenger is likely infected. That's one way to ensure no-one uses the subway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerbiloid Posted April 15, 2020 Share Posted April 15, 2020 (edited) (About the tram/train ramming) Reminds the "Speed" with Sandra Bullock, the very end. Edited April 15, 2020 by kerbiloid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tater Posted April 15, 2020 Share Posted April 15, 2020 (edited) 36% positive with PCR testing. Small sample, but still, wide community spread, it's not like air travelers from Europe to Boston spend a lot of close quality time with bums in Boston. That false negatives a lot, too. Maybe the pregnant women at only 15% were because they are extra careful (my wife certainly was). Late March, BTW. Those were active infections. Doubles every 4 days or so... The curve could be bending because of herd immunity, even if that level is really high. "Surge" could be because 60, 80, whatever % of people have this, so a tiny % of bad outcomes is still a large number. Edited April 15, 2020 by tater Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tater Posted April 15, 2020 Share Posted April 15, 2020 This guy has fit other countries age demos to the Iceland data (which tests more and hence knows more). https://medium.com/@ali_razavian/covid-19-from-a-data-scientists-perspective-95bd4e84843b CFR according to this analysis is 0.06%. Lower than flu—but it's much more infectious. This fits the Los Alamos idea that the R0 is really high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sevenperforce Posted April 15, 2020 Share Posted April 15, 2020 39 minutes ago, tater said: This guy has fit other countries age demos to the Iceland data (which tests more and hence knows more). https://medium.com/@ali_razavian/covid-19-from-a-data-scientists-perspective-95bd4e84843b CFR according to this analysis is 0.06%. Lower than flu—but it's much more infectious. This fits the Los Alamos idea that the R0 is really high. I thought this was very good: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-comic-strip-tour-of-the-wild-world-of-pandemic-modeling/ Using the data from the Princess ship may have skewed CFR because the demographic likely skews older. 300x more likely to catch than the flu.....wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sevenperforce Posted April 15, 2020 Share Posted April 15, 2020 49 minutes ago, tater said: This guy has fit other countries age demos to the Iceland data (which tests more and hence knows more). The one thing about this that he doesn't seem to be accounting for is the impact of hospital overload. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tater Posted April 15, 2020 Share Posted April 15, 2020 (edited) 6 minutes ago, sevenperforce said: The one thing about this that he doesn't seem to be accounting for is the impact of hospital overload. True. Also doesn't do herd immunity explicitly, but given the curve fit to a logistical curve it's baked in I guess. The question will be the number of actual cases places like NY had. What if it effectively ran its course in NY? The 36% of bums, 15% of mothers (likely more careful about hygiene than homeless), suggests that if that was the case in late March, doubling every X days... BTW, the current standard of care is leaning heavily away from vents, so the chances of overload decrease a great deal. Sounds like many ICU docs think vents might be harmful. Looks like it was a homeless shelter, not entirely random. But still late March for testing. Edited April 15, 2020 by tater Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tater Posted April 15, 2020 Share Posted April 15, 2020 Didn't notice his note at the bottom: The CFR is lower than initially estimated, around 0.045% rather than 0.06%. I think he's wrong on the CFR, though. I think it will be much closer to 0.1%. The mortality of flu has less to do with flu than the patient population most likely to die from flu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sevenperforce Posted April 15, 2020 Share Posted April 15, 2020 1 minute ago, tater said: BTW, the current standard of care is leaning heavily away from vents, so the chances of overload decrease a great deal. Sounds like many ICU docs think vents might be harmful. Ventilators are already known to be pretty harmful, generally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tater Posted April 15, 2020 Share Posted April 15, 2020 14 minutes ago, sevenperforce said: Ventilators are already known to be pretty harmful, generally. Yeah, but some people were suggesting venting people early, vs emergently. Of course you have to then try and wean them off every single day (which they normally would do, anyway). It's particularly hard to work on proned, vented people as well (according to my wife), since they are pointed the wrong way. Also, it's hard to prone fat people, period. If the best treatment is lying on your stomach, and you are built like the Baron Harkonnen, not so good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tater Posted April 15, 2020 Share Posted April 15, 2020 https://www.nhs.uk/news/medical-practice/three-quarters-of-people-with-flu-have-no-symptoms/ Interesting that 3/4 of flu cases don't have symptoms. So it's not far fetched that many people can have a virus and not even know it. Also: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tater Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tater Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/04/15/coronavirus-vaccine-prospects Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDE Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 McDonalds offers free junk food to ambulance crews. Moscow Department of Transport threatens to fine any ambulance crew that grabs chow while on the clock ...then backpedals rapidly once it finds itself in the headlines. https://www.osnmedia.ru/obshhestvo/depzdrav-prigrozil-medikam-shtrafami-za-besplatnyj-obed-v-makdonalds/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerbiloid Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 (edited) 8 hours ago, DDE said: McDonalds offers free junk food to ambulance crews. Who wins: chemistry vs microbiology. At least, this probably kills bacteria. In area. Edited April 16, 2020 by kerbiloid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 Fast food has one advantage in this situation, namely that it's fast. The less time they spend waiting for their chow, the more time they spend in action. European McDonald's is actually pretty good for a quick dinner on the go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDE Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 A major literary authority on the Chernobyl disaster and its impact. Note that she's being platformed at US taxpayer's expense, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 That's the problem with literary authorities. Last time I checked, Chernobyl was a nuclear disaster, not a literary one, unless you count some works written about it. A few doctors made great writers, but I haven't heard of a writer making a good doctor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerbiloid Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 Even where there is still no 5G? (We know about the competition for 5G frequencies). Spoiler 32 minutes ago, DDE said: A major literary authority on the Chernobyl disaster and its impact. She wrote the plot of S.T.A.L.K.E.R. ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shpaget Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 Why are such crackpots given such publicity and opportunity to spread their nonsense? As for the Nobel Prize for Literature... That one is in serious competition with the Nobel Peace Prize for the top position in the chart of the least credible and worthy of mentioning prizes of them all. They're on par with the prizes given out by Frost & Sullivan and similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superfluous J Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 6 minutes ago, Shpaget said: Why are such crackpots given such publicity and opportunity to spread their nonsense? Clicks = $ People click headlines with crazy assertions. Q.E.D. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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