tater Posted March 17, 2020 Share Posted March 17, 2020 I bet these tests drive the CFR lower than the 0.6% SK figures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sh1pman Posted March 17, 2020 Share Posted March 17, 2020 17 minutes ago, tater said: It's worth considering. It’s also possible for the virus to become seasonal and/or mutate into more severe strains. And the rate of mutation scales with the amount of people infected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lisias Posted March 17, 2020 Share Posted March 17, 2020 (edited) 56 minutes ago, tater said: Seems like the entire world is engaging in a cytokine storm. Ie: the response is worse than the disease. Destroy the world economy, and harm hundreds of millions or billions to save a few years of life from a subset of elderly people in poor health. Makes little sense to me. It's the price we pay for inheriting their work. You know, someone had to work and earn money and pay taxes before you had born. Just Imagine how it would be your life if they had choose to burn all that money with iPhones and travels instead of applying on investment funds and paying taxes... Wonder what would be your country if every elderly man and woman just leave to live somewhere else, taking all their money with them... We live on a Consumerist Society. We need consumers to be alive, otherwise we would not have an Economy to be rebuilt. Living People are the reason we need an Economy at first place. It's hard to understand when we are young (been there, done that). But as we grow older and start to understand how things really work, we change our minds. Be patient. Be wise. Your generation will have to cope with things that my own generation just knew from history books. Edited March 17, 2020 by Lisias Kraken damned Autocompletes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tater Posted March 17, 2020 Share Posted March 17, 2020 3 minutes ago, sh1pman said: It’s also possible for the virus to become seasonal and/or mutate into more severe strains. And the rate of mutation scales with the amount of people infected. It's already endemic, so this is happening regardless. I'm not suggesting no intervention, I'm suggesting rational intervention that results in less collateral damage. The response from the science/medical community has been amazing. I fully expect better antiviral treatments (there are already drugs that are showing promise for treating this) in addition to possible vaccines. The latter would be amazing since there have not been coronavirus vaccines yet, and maybe they even end a % of colds as a result (~30% are from a coronavirus). Way up the thread I posed a paper that showed that substantially increasing bathroom hand washing at just 10-20 major airports in the world could reduce pandemics by ~67%. A change in bahavior alone from this will have positive downstream impacts. Next year's flu season could be far lower from hand washing and people staying home when sick, saving hundreds of thousands of lives (offsetting the death from COVID-19 to some extent). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikegarrison Posted March 17, 2020 Share Posted March 17, 2020 2 hours ago, tater said: reading papers our friend the molecular biologist sent her on SARS-CoV-2 nuts and bolts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tater Posted March 17, 2020 Share Posted March 17, 2020 (my wife got her biomedical PhD before she even went to med school, so her geeking out is to be expected) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sh1pman Posted March 17, 2020 Share Posted March 17, 2020 (edited) I was about to schedule my own PhD thesis defense (bioorganic chemistry), but yesterday they effectively shut down the university... Edited March 17, 2020 by sh1pman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YNM Posted March 17, 2020 Share Posted March 17, 2020 1 hour ago, tater said: Money is the usual metric here, but think about people who live paycheck to paycheck. This is something I really worry myself. The US is a first-world country and might have enough resources to feed everyone - China practically did that to nearly all the populace during lockdowns - but in a 3rd-world country it's a stark difference. As for how much human lives those lost money means... idk... but it's surely a thing we need to consider, as always. But I think either way we'd have to lose some money - South Korea, one of the countries to have finally levelled the sigmoid, do a lot of free tests, and that has to be funded from somewhere, after all... though it may prove cheaper than lockdowns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tater Posted March 17, 2020 Share Posted March 17, 2020 That podcast I posted just up the thread is a great one to listen to. He basically says it's worse than the 2009 flu pandemic, maybe more like the 1968 flu pandemic. Concerning, particularly for the elderly and their families, but hardly apocalyptic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cavscout74 Posted March 17, 2020 Share Posted March 17, 2020 21 hours ago, Cavscout74 said: In other news, my workplace is trying to be proactive - we are a regional cargo airline, and need to keep required personnel well. So for those of us working in company headquarters, they changed things so only essential personnel come to work, everyone else is to work from home. Obviously most of today was spent with people coming in to get their computers & whatever office stuff they will need, but from now on we will have just 3 of us working at any given time that are essential personnel (flight dispatchers & maintenance control - we're required to be able to work face to face). Considering my workplace is halfway to the closest confirmed cases and at least half the employees live further in that direction, I'm all for it. Now I'm just hoping all the managers & executives don't decide they are essential and come in. I can confirm they are perfectly capable of micromanaging from home just as well as they can in person, and almost all of them are closer to the confirmed cases as well. There's still the risk of someone catching it at home & spreading it before showing symptoms, but it at least keeps contact to a bare minimum. So much for that - apparently half the office workers are "essential personnel." Sorta kills the plan of only 3 people working face to face at any time. I shoulda known that wouldn't happen. Ironically, most of the mangers did stay home, but half of everyone else that wasn't supposed to be in is working. The really funny part is our flight dispatchers are working 12 hour shifts supposedly to reduce the frequency of face to face interactions. It wasn't a great plan to begin with - they are still interacting with the same people twice a day, they just work fewer days and another group takes over the other days, plus they have no one to cover if anyone gets sick/injured for any reason. With dozens of people are still here during the day, it becomes totally pointless - the company might as well have done nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerbiloid Posted March 17, 2020 Share Posted March 17, 2020 Will now the plans of the disposable tableware and packages elimination get back to the dull reality? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StrandedonEarth Posted March 17, 2020 Share Posted March 17, 2020 The economic damage from social/physical distancing is probably too great. Probably cheaper, easier if everyone just went somewhere between Sheldon Cooper and full biohazard suits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDE Posted March 17, 2020 Share Posted March 17, 2020 Iran finally takes action against shrine-lickers. https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/blogs-trending-51706021?__twitter_impression=true Things that will age like milk: Spoiler Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YNM Posted March 17, 2020 Share Posted March 17, 2020 2 hours ago, DDE said: Things that will age like milk: Yeah, this epidemic is not as clear as it seems. At least one of them is definitely correct... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDE Posted March 17, 2020 Share Posted March 17, 2020 Apparently, Georgian and then Russian netizens enthusiastically spread rumours about nighttime citywide disinfections via helicopter, killing anyone caught outside. https://1tv.ge/ru/news/informacija-chto-kak-budto-segodnja-s-2300-do-0500-utra-vertolety-budut-opryskivat-vozdukh-v-tbilisi-ne-sootvetstvuet-dejstvitelnosti/ Lukashenko's reaction to the closed border was downright erratic, a flurry of contradictory statements - from appeals to Bruderschaft to dismissal of Russia as a coronavirus-infested state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scotius Posted March 17, 2020 Share Posted March 17, 2020 Vodka and sauna? Hmm... Belarusians will get sick like everyone else... but at least they will have fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cavscout74 Posted March 17, 2020 Share Posted March 17, 2020 15 minutes ago, Scotius said: Vodka and sauna? Hmm... Belarusians will get sick like everyone else... but at least they will have fun They'll certainly be more relaxed than the folks here panicing & scampering around trying to find toilet paper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XB-70A Posted March 17, 2020 Share Posted March 17, 2020 (edited) Because everything is doing good is this world, let's add some sparkles to the story. First emergence of this year was declared in early February. https://www.physiciansweekly.com/china-reports-first-h5n6/ Right now, the Filipino's authorities are trying to contain it: https://www.philstar.com/business/2020/03/16/2001314/philippines-reports-cases-h5n6-bird-flu-nueva-ecija-quails Edited March 17, 2020 by XB-70A Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tater Posted March 17, 2020 Share Posted March 17, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StrandedonEarth Posted March 18, 2020 Share Posted March 18, 2020 1 hour ago, tater said: It’s stuff like this that makes the increasing shutdowns seem unnecessarily expensive. Would we be better off making everyone wear surgical masks, on the premise you could be unknowingly contagious and it’s therefore best to do as much as possible to prevent it being spread? A mask would also help discourage touching one’s own face (a bad habit of mine). Follow that up with hand sanitizer and latex/nitrile gloves to try to prevent picking a virus up Would that keep transmission rates down close to the current isolation plan? Getting used to this protocol should also slow the spread of the flu and the common cold. Although I am leery of weakening immune systems by preventing contact with everyday bugs How long until someone develops a glove (disposable or not) with an antiviral surface ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tater Posted March 18, 2020 Share Posted March 18, 2020 (edited) 24 minutes ago, StrandedonEarth said: It’s stuff like this that makes the increasing shutdowns seem unnecessarily expensive. Would we be better off making everyone wear surgical masks, on the premise you could be unknowingly contagious and it’s therefore best to do as much as possible to prevent it being spread? A mask would also help discourage touching one’s own face (a bad habit of mine). Follow that up with hand sanitizer and latex/nitrile gloves to try to prevent picking a virus up Would that keep transmission rates down close to the current isolation plan? Getting used to this protocol should also slow the spread of the flu and the common cold. Although I am leery of weakening immune systems by preventing contact with everyday bugs How long until someone develops a glove (disposable or not) with an antiviral surface ? This seems to mean it's going to progress like flu, and a decent % of the population will get it. It also means that until we get far broader testing, the CFR will still be over high. I'm more and more thinking that infectious disease guy on Sam Harris (up thread video) is right, and the upper limit of CFR is 0.6. I think the % of cases requiring hospitalization is likely higher than flu, then a higher % of those need the ICU (10% is typical, vs what, 30% in Italy?). Also, median ICU stays seem to be on the order of 5 days, vs maybe 2 weeks for COVID-19. The slamming of ICUs need not be because there are vastly more patients (no one has really hit that level yet), but simply because there are 2-3X as many, and they stay 2-3X as long. That would give a range of 4-9X the impact on the medical system with only 2-3 the total number of cases in the ICU, and hospitalizations roughly the same as flu (very slightly higher, still under 2% of all cases). As for gloves, soap is great against coronaviruses, anyway. Edited March 18, 2020 by tater Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tater Posted March 18, 2020 Share Posted March 18, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tater Posted March 18, 2020 Share Posted March 18, 2020 Offit helped make the Rotovirus vaccine. He's a smart guy. He points out that you cannot stop respiratory spread, flu will not stop from these methods, if the Chinese, et al, have stopped this, it's fecal-oral as a primary mode of transmission. Way up the thread is some tweet about them detecting virus in stool without nasal swabs detecting it. He thinks there is a respiratory component, to be sure, but that's a close contact thing vs surface spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerbiloid Posted March 18, 2020 Share Posted March 18, 2020 4 hours ago, StrandedonEarth said: Would we be better off making everyone wear surgical masks, on the premise you could be unknowingly contagious and it’s therefore best to do as much as possible to prevent it being spread? A mask would also help discourage touching one’s own face (a bad habit of mine). Spoiler Fashion'2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tater Posted March 18, 2020 Share Posted March 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, kerbiloid said: Hide contents Fashion'2020 This year's Halloween costume, to be sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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