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Coronavirus

Xd the great

By Xd the great
in Science & Spaceflight

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DDE

DDE

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, kerbiloid said:

When a fever helps against something, usually it means just a usage of hyperthermia.
And now we may return to the 200°C bath talk.

There's always disinfecting yourself with UV.

Spoiler

From the inside

 

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted

They've already got it. "Corona-holidays" was all over the place soon after lockdowns started. :) Kids loved the whole thing from the start.

TBH, given how inadequate the modern "education" system is, the whole deal with reopening schools isn't for the kids, it's for the adults, so they don't have to take care of their kids all day.

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DDE

DDE

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, kerbiloid said:
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Because they are clever.

 

IQ does correlate to lifespan, yes... But there are so many things that need conteolling here.

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StrandedonEarth

StrandedonEarth

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 11/1/2020 at 2:56 AM, DDE said:

https://rg.ru/2020/10/30/reg-sibfo/uchenye-podtverdili-chto-liudi-v-ochkah-rezhe-zarazhaiutsia-covid-19.html

Unspecified Chinese research - sadly, the information arrives from the equivalent of a friend of a friend of an acquaintance - shows people with glasses are five times less likely to get infected.

Quite plausible, as even regular eyeglasses help  protect the eyes from droplets from people “speaking moistly”. Safety glasses would be even better, protecting most angles. 

In other news, when schools are separating kids into cohorts to limit spread, whose the moron who thought it would be a good idea to run dance classes involving kids from many different schools? 30 cases from that dance studio, involving kids at twelve different schools.... 

ivWGmS4.png
As a result, the kids’ ice hockey season has been paused 

Edited by StrandedonEarth
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magnemoe

magnemoe

Posted
Posted
On 11/4/2020 at 4:39 PM, StrandedonEarth said:

Quite plausible, as even regular eyeglasses help  protect the eyes from droplets from people “speaking moistly”. Safety glasses would be even better, protecting most angles. 

In other news, when schools are separating kids into cohorts to limit spread, whose the moron who thought it would be a good idea to run dance classes involving kids from many different schools? 30 cases from that dance studio, involving kids at twelve different schools.... 

ivWGmS4.png
As a result, the kids’ ice hockey season has been paused 

LOL, and got an mask at the mall, problem is that it made my glasses fog over so I had to remove the glasses. 

And canceling contact sport between teams makes sense. Training inside team would be pretty OK. 

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magnemoe

magnemoe

Posted
Posted
On 2/2/2020 at 6:29 PM, Scotius said:

True. But still... it was a massive outbreak. It wiped out a significant portion of population of Europe, after sweeping through Asia and Northern Africa. It took centuries to recover from long-term aftereffects on demographics, economy and culture. To this day Black Death is a yardstick we apply to similar disasters... and for good reason.

I say the Spanish flue is more realistic here, now WW1 might have boosted it, soldiers at the front with mild symptoms was kept near the front as they will recover soon. The hard cases was sent to the hospitals and it went after the immune system.
Now you can get worse but counters are also better even if travel is much faster. 
On the upside rapid vaccine development will get serious money. 
 

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tater

tater

Posted
Posted
15 hours ago, sevenperforce said:

It was as much info as I could fit into the medium -- I didn't have time to go into the impact of Ct and doubling via amplification.

True FP for COVID PCR is roughly 0.01% based on the Ontario guidelines.

Anything under Ct 25 means you're contagious. From 25-35 you're looking at a low risk of contagiousness; it's more probable that you've recovered. At 35-38 you're definitely not contagious but you still definitely had the virus recently. Above 38-40 cycles you get into the possibility of amplifying incomplete viral material.

They shouldn't stop cycling at 30; that's a bad idea. But they should report cycle threshold on positives so that physicians can make recommendations.

 

I have seen different numbers for the true FP rate. Again, there is "perfect world" clean lab rate, then there is "Tricore in ABQ swamped with 10,000 PCR tests to do by tomorrow" world. Contamination is a non-trivial issue with amplification. During a substantial outbreak, no big deal, testing changes nothing anyway, if you don't have symptoms, you don't need treatment, if you are sick, they treat you presumptively. Literally nothing has changed since March (except they are managing to save more people, treatment has improved).

https://covidtestdb.com/performance/page_results?company=Abbott+Molecular+Inc.&test=Alinity+m+SARS-CoV-2+assay

(lots of different tests, would be useful for the page to allow 0% prevalence)

But yeah, Ct <25 should be the critical one. Even by 35, sans symptoms you're almost certainly not a concern, there is probably a lower cutoff for asymptomatic people closer to a Ct of 30. It would be nice if they knew what the min inoculum was in the real world (minus doing stuff to people like intubating them). They test everyone admitted to the hospital here, and the Ct is 38-40 in NM I think (they are not transparent). So the vast majority of positives without Ct reported are in fact people who are already done with COVID-19.

Hospitalizations here are way up, it's finally looking like a real peak, but the driver is actually Las Cruces which is 30 minutes from El Paso, and El Paso is surging because it is steps away from Mexico (when AZ was surging in summer, the worst areas were the Navajo Nation, then the border counties. Odd that the virus knows where the border is ;) .

ABQ hospitals have a bunch of patients transferred from Cruces, but there are also some more locally. The Governor has kicked the can, apparently she didn;t get the memo that a flattened curve has the same area under it. By the beginning of the week, my state will have equaled Sweden in mortality per capita, under harsh, incredibly destructive restrictions since March. Sweden was right, had the mitigations here resulted in lower mortality, I could disagree with them, but still see the benefit. There is none, targeted interventions and low hanging fruit would have been superior. If you're gonna mitigate for most of a year, it needs to be endlessly sustainable. My family is fine, indeed our finances have improved due to nothing to spend money on (even getting takeout super often and tipping well to keep favorite places afloat). Others are far worse off here, a huge chunk of the economy is hospitality. Balloon Fiesta cancelled is like cancelling Christmas for retail here.

We were at a party the other day (yeah, we ignore the governor and have/attend parties just like normal (largely populated with doctors, lol)), and a friend who runs an elder LTC facility told us that their mortality is up 50% since March—not from COVID-19, they test everyone often, staff, residents, etc. She thinks they are simply giving up, and feel imprisoned (the average stay in a nursing home is only 13.7 months in the US (discharge via death), so nursing homes are in effect long term hospice). A pediatrician at the party has been seeing a gross uptick in depression and suicidal ideation in children, nothign she's ever seen in 20 years. Like 12 year old children. She was livid, never seen her that way, she's a typical peds doc, personality like a preschool teacher, super nice. She thinks the schools should be opened fully normally immediately.

 

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YNM

YNM

Posted
Posted

This came up on the news, so I presume it is...

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-54948005

Spoiler

 

In any case, does sound to me slightly on the coronavirus infection. Coughs and sneezes are barely a thing at the start really, even from when it started; fever, anosmia and aching/fatigue are more prevalent.

I hope the astronaut don't catch it through some distant route (which should be unlikely given both clean rooms and the person haven't met directly either), but honestly if the vaccines aren't really coming either (the first 'successful' vaccine had a similar problem with the briefly-declared-problematic vaccine from a different major country) then maybe we should accept that you gotta live with it on the ISS as well. I mean problems obviously will happen but it's a bit less comforting than an unflawed one (and the way how things have been worded almost made me thought it was flawless spotless).

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sevenperforce

sevenperforce

Posted
Posted
On 11/14/2020 at 11:16 AM, tater said:

Ct <25 should be the critical one. Even by 35, sans symptoms you're almost certainly not a concern, there is probably a lower cutoff for asymptomatic people closer to a Ct of 30. It would be nice if they knew what the min inoculum was in the real world.

According to official sources out of Ontario, the CDC has been able to culture live SARS-CoV-2 from Ct over 35, but only very rarely. One issue is the variability between tests. Each manufacturer tests its assays against negative controls so one assay’s positivity cutoff could be 37 while another could be 42.

On 11/14/2020 at 11:16 AM, tater said:

So the vast majority of positives without Ct reported are in fact people who are already done with COVID-19.

This may be where we are going to disagree strongly. I have seen no evidence beyond speculation that tests at Ct > 32 constitute a majority of positive tests, let alone a vast majority.

12 hours ago, YNM said:
On 11/14/2020 at 11:16 AM, tater said:

Sweden was right, had the mitigations here resulted in lower mortality, I could disagree with them, but still see the benefit. There is none, targeted interventions and low hanging fruit would have been superior. If you're gonna mitigate for most of a year, it needs to be endlessly sustainable. My family is fine, indeed our finances have improved due to nothing to spend money on (even getting takeout super often and tipping well to keep favorite places afloat). Others are far worse off here, a huge chunk of the economy is hospitality.

Are you in NM then?

Sweden’s mortality has skyrocketed in comparison to most of Europe.

I agree that the United States did a terrible job. Blue states had restrictive lockdowns that didn’t do much good because red states refused to follow suit and conservatives in blue states kept protesting. There was no national leadership and so we have had draconian restrictions for little or no reason. If we had done the right thing and gone to a national lockdown early, we could have brought transmission low enough at the beginning. 

12 hours ago, YNM said:

In any case, does sound to me slightly on the coronavirus infection. Coughs and sneezes are barely a thing at the start really, even from when it started; fever, anosmia and aching/fatigue are more prevalent.

I’m glad Elon has a mild case.

The problem is that the variance in case severity is ridiculously high. Some people are contagious and asymptomatic. Some people are contagious but their symptoms are so mild that they think it’s just allergies and they’re spreading it like crazy. Some people are dead in under a week with no pre-existing conditions.

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Serenity

Serenity

Posted
Posted

Do you guys think vaccines will be mandatory?

i work in mass transit and i am horrified in the idea of being forced to vaccinate or loose my job.

I am not against vaccines i am just extra scared of these fast track ones and all the mixed signals we get from various countries.

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