The Finances of Space

[magnemoe]

20 hours ago, DDE said:

That wasn't entirely my point. In a lot of places, a steady, noticeable level of inflation is the norm, to the point where the entire monetary policy is contructed around inflation targeting. Countries with prominent, internationally used currencies are usually reasonably protected against these same effects, and the current burst is at least partly a product of various QE schemes, yes, as well as energy prices.

This non-negligable inflation massively affects investment habits, making the Anglosphere venture capitalist market - and hence the Soace Bubble - hard to replicate.

This is true but in the US, EU and most advanced economies inflation has been low for an generation. Its been a couple of % because deflation is worse. 
And I think this will continue, COVID was an exception. 
Yes its places with high inflation but it tend to be dysfunctional economics or you walk from crisis to crisis. 
 

[farmerben]

Another potential money maker is to open the first lunar graveyard.   Instead of a headstone, loved ones look at the moon.  Charge six figures per pop paid in advance.

[kerbiloid]

With Luna park for the visitor kids.

[SunlitZelkova]

How are Starlink profits connected to Starship funding?

It may not necessarily be a big thing, but Musk’s comments have me curious.

[DDE]

3 hours ago, SunlitZelkova said:

How are Starlink profits connected to Starship funding?

It may not necessarily be a big thing, but Musk’s comments have me curious.

SpaceX isn't public, so its four sources of funds are Musk's savings from past and current projects (probably not much), profits from Falcon launches (potentially not much, save for ULA-priced national defence launches), profits from Starlink, and investor capital from Alphabet et al. This latter category may be earmarked as "do not use for Starship". So, speaking in guesstimates because SpaceX financials aren't public easier, this may leave not a whole lot for a megaproject of this size.

[JoeSchmuckatelli]

Well, and to be fair - while giving Starlinks was cool and good PR - you can guarantee that places like Raytheon, BAE and etc. are not missing out on the wave of money flowing around the US/EU's support for Ukraine.  Why shouldn't SX ask for a slice of the pie? 

[DDE]

14 hours ago, JoeSchmuckatelli said:

Well, and to be fair - while giving Starlinks was cool and good PR - you can guarantee that places like Raytheon, BAE and etc. are not missing out on the wave of money flowing around the US/EU's support for Ukraine.  Why shouldn't SX ask for a slice of the pie? 

And, more importantly, those are public. So even if they were doing it at a loss, their shareholders would be happy.

Now would you look at thay peak on February 28!

[DDE]

@JoeSchmuckatelli The guy behind Spydell_Finance on TG just posted an interesting thread in Russian. TL;DR deppsits on US banks exceed lending by 6 trillion (7.3 trillion as of December 2021), which is why deposit rates are in the gutter. The money market and the credit rates are non-responsive to FRS rate hikes because the banks are swimming in virtually free cash... and plus, the disappointed lenders taking the money out of the banks may then spend it and drive inflation up.

[JoeSchmuckatelli]

9 hours ago, DDE said:

@JoeSchmuckatelli The guy behind Spydell_Finance on TG just posted an interesting thread in Russian. TL;DR deppsits on US banks exceed lending by 6 trillion (7.3 trillion as of December 2021), which is why deposit rates are in the gutter. The money market and the credit rates are non-responsive to FRS rate hikes because the banks are swimming in virtually free cash... and plus, the disappointed lenders taking the money out of the banks may then spend it and drive inflation up.

Definitely one of the problems of too much cash in circulation.  Rate hikes are certainly a tool - but there's also some interesting things going on that don't necessarily relate to too liquid of a lending environment.

The jobs slice is quite interesting: from pharmacy workers to electricians (both non college-degree-requiring jobs)*  America has a real need to revolutionize our work-force participation... and a big problem is the Educational Bias toward college degrees over solid vocational training.**   Traditionally, employers have been willing to assist college-educated workers relocate - providing a good amount of liquidity in the highly-educated worker market, but vocational or trades workers were largely left to fend for themselves; if they could not find a good job locally, there was little being done to incentivize the skilled vocational worker to move to where the work was... which can result in industries stagnating or struggling due to a lack of qualified employees, and communities floundering with underpaid, overskilled workers with talents that lie outside of the local demand.  In other words - we have a messed up supply and demand situation in our labor market on top of too much money lying around.

In addition, Covid provided a shock that exposed just how precariously we were all hanging on to the wild ride of logistics these last few years.  It was a completely ad-hoc 'system' that managed to work, but wasn't really designed and certainly lacked resiliency.  (Just in Time is profitable so long as everything is cooking right along... but once there's a hiccup, all of a sudden Just in Case makes sense!).

These issues are, of course, broader than just the U.S.  Russia and Europe also report issues of trying to find talented vocational workers and yet very few people are talking about how to improve the situation by looking at the liquidity of labor piece: no one wants to pay 'low skilled' or 'low educated' workers to move... even if that worker is exactly what they need right now.

Growing pains.

 

 * 

 

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"workload and stress had increased to unsustainable levels, while staffing and pay failed to keep up."

 

The latest worker shortage may affect your health: Pharmacies don't have enough staff to keep up with prescriptions (nbcnews.com)

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• "the electrician shortage is the result of a mismatch between supply and demand.

On the supply side, not enough younger electricians are entering the industry as experienced electricians are retiring. On the demand side, more electricians will be needed to meet the ever-increasing electricity needs of our nation."

 

 

The State of the Electrician Shortage in 2022: New Data on the Impact of COVID-19 (borderstates.com)

 

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People who leave school at 16 can’t access a clear, well-designed training system as exists in many European countries. And if they are lucky enough to get a job, they don’t have access to continuing education: Whereas you could once be promoted from the shop floor to, eventually, the executive suite, almost all the top jobs now go to people with college degrees. The result is a frustrating mess. More than 50 million Americans are stuck in low-wage jobs without much prospect of acquiring the skills that they need to climb out of poverty; at the same time, three-quarters of employers say that they can’t hire people with the requisite skills. 

**

US Jobs Day: America Faces a Great Labor Shortage in 2022 - Bloomberg

 

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• Many jobs now require specialized training in technology that bachelor’s programs are usually too broad to address, leading to more “last mile”–type vocational-education programs after the completion of a degree. Programs such as Galvanize aim to teach specific software and coding skills; Always Hired offers a “tech-sales bootcamp” to graduates. The manufacturing, infrastructure, and transportation fields are all expected to grow in the coming years—and many of those jobs likely won’t require a four-year degree.

  This shift in the job and education markets can leave parents feeling unsure about the career path their children choose to pursue. Lack of knowledge and misconceptions about the trades can lead parents to steer their kids away from these programs, when vocational training might be a surer path to a stable job.

...

Negative attitudes and misconceptions persist even in the face of the positive statistical outlook for the job market for these middle-skill careers. “It is considered a second choice, second-class. We really need to change how people see vocational and technical education,” Patricia Hsieh, the president of a community college in the San Diego area, said in a speech at the 2017 conference for the American Association of Community Colleges. European nations prioritize vocational training for many students, with half of secondary students (the equivalent of U.S. high-school students) participating in vocational programs. In the United States, since the passage of the 1944 GI Bill, college has been pushed over vocational education. This college-for-all narrative has been emphasized for decades as the pathway to success and stability; parents might worry about the future of their children who choose a different path.

 

The Stigma of Choosing Trade School Over College | Department of Human Resources (sfdhr.org)