SunlitZelkova Posted October 31, 2022 Share Posted October 31, 2022 This is a thread to share updates on the status of the core stage of the Long March 5B LV that launched the Mengtian module on October 31st, 2022. This has been created because sharing of news has picked up quite a bit on the CNSA thread compared to when Tianhe was launched, and therefore the core stage merits a separate thread to avoid losing Mengtian and other CNSA related news in the flood of core stage updates- it took 10~ days or so for the core stage to reenter the first time and attracted quite a bit of discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gargamel Posted October 31, 2022 Share Posted October 31, 2022 What’s the inclination? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SunlitZelkova Posted October 31, 2022 Author Share Posted October 31, 2022 20 minutes ago, Gargamel said: What’s the inclination? At separation from Mengtian, about 42 degrees. But I’m not finding any orbital updates. It seems we have fallen into a slight malaise since Wentian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gargamel Posted October 31, 2022 Share Posted October 31, 2022 Woo, I’m at 41…. So you’re saying there’s a chance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sevenperforce Posted October 31, 2022 Share Posted October 31, 2022 Not this again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SunlitZelkova Posted October 31, 2022 Author Share Posted October 31, 2022 1 hour ago, Gargamel said: Woo, I’m at 41…. So you’re saying there’s a chance? If you wish upon a shooting star falling core stage! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve9728 Posted October 31, 2022 Share Posted October 31, 2022 (edited) According to the previous one, Wentian Module's launching, the first Announcement of Orbital Parameters of the Rocket Upper Stage Debris, issued by the CMS official website, was published two days after the launch. it then went on to publish one each day, four in total. Until the fifth one, "CZ-5B Y3 rocket upper stage wreckage has re-entered the atmosphere", four days later. These reports can tell you the perigee and apogee, as well as orbital inclination. But visually draw the lines on the map, you may have to do it yourself. Edited October 31, 2022 by steve9728 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SunlitZelkova Posted November 1, 2022 Author Share Posted November 1, 2022 So we really did get a Halloween surprise from CNSA. A spooky dead core stage hangs over the Earth, and no mortal knows when it will fall! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Codraroll Posted November 1, 2022 Share Posted November 1, 2022 Where did the previous ones fall again? Côte d'Ivoire, Sea, Borneo? On 10/28/2022 at 1:33 PM, Minmus Taster said: Time to place our bets Of course, it's futile to bet on what's essentially a dice roll, but I count 64 squares above, of which 38 mostly feature empty ocean. Splashdown somewhere wet and/or uninhabited seems to be overwhelmingly likely. Still, the chance of it hitting somewhere people are pointing weapons at each other and itching for any excuse to pull the trigger seems to be at least a few percent, which should be grounds for major concern and lead any decent space agency to take actions to lower the risk. There are also a string of pretty major metropolitan areas over most of row 1. Still, though ... the Earth is mostly covered in water. If I had to make a guess, that's where I'd place it. Water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SunlitZelkova Posted November 1, 2022 Author Share Posted November 1, 2022 One of the worlds I made for space what-ifs has Mengtian’s core stage slamming into the uninhabited Saudi desert. Many voices are raised over what happened but nothing really comes of it beyond harsh statements back and forth. It will be interesting to see if my fiction becomes reality! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerbiloid Posted November 1, 2022 Share Posted November 1, 2022 "If I was a core stage of the Long March 5B LV . where would I fall?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sevenperforce Posted November 1, 2022 Share Posted November 1, 2022 USSF's predictions for the last two re-entries have been shockingly good. Once they say where it's coming down, it's a pretty safe bet that they're right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoeSchmuckatelli Posted November 1, 2022 Share Posted November 1, 2022 I'd be disappointed if they weren't. Kind of the job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve9728 Posted November 1, 2022 Share Posted November 1, 2022 CMS's official Weibo: The orbital parameters of the wreckage of the CZ-5B Y4 rocket are: perigee 170.8km, apogee 301.4km, inclination 41.6°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sevenperforce Posted November 2, 2022 Share Posted November 2, 2022 23 hours ago, steve9728 said: CMS's official Weibo: The orbital parameters of the wreckage of the CZ-5B Y4 rocket are: perigee 170.8km, apogee 301.4km, inclination 41.6°. Interesting that this is a significantly lower perigee than in prior launches. With the last one, the initial orbital parameters were a perigee of 182.5 km and an apogee of 299.3 km. By the time the perigee had dropped to ~170 km, the apogee was already down to ~232 km and it was very close to re-entry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sevenperforce Posted November 3, 2022 Share Posted November 3, 2022 Definitely coming down much more rapidly this time, likely thanks to the low perigee. Looks like it will come down over DC (where I am) if it is just 27 minutes later than the current estimated splashdown point. In a 6-hour window. Lovely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikegarrison Posted November 3, 2022 Share Posted November 3, 2022 6 minutes ago, sevenperforce said: Definitely coming down much more rapidly this time, likely thanks to the low perigee. Looks like it will come down over DC (where I am) if it is just 27 minutes later than the current estimated splashdown point. In a 6-hour window. Lovely. That would be really wild if a Chinese rocket crashed into Washington DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerbiloid Posted November 4, 2022 Share Posted November 4, 2022 7 hours ago, mikegarrison said: That would be really wild if a Chinese rocket crashed into Washington DC. The whole Fallout series is about this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve9728 Posted November 4, 2022 Share Posted November 4, 2022 CMS's official Weibo: The orbital parameters of the wreckage of the CZ-5B Y4 rocket are: perigee 144.5km, apogee 190.5km, inclination 41.6°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magnemoe Posted November 4, 2022 Share Posted November 4, 2022 Norwegian news is that airspace in part of Spain was closed because of this rocket but is opening again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerbiloid Posted November 4, 2022 Share Posted November 4, 2022 2 hours ago, magnemoe said: Norwegian news is that airspace in part of Spain was closed because of this rocket but is opening again. What a good excuse for someone's fail-up. "The flight is delayed to let the Chinese rocket pass by." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve9728 Posted November 4, 2022 Share Posted November 4, 2022 (edited) CMS's official Weibo/CMS's official website: According to the results of the monitoring analysis, the wreckage of the CZ-5B Y4 rocket has re-entered the atmosphere on 4 Nov 2022 18:08 CST. The landing zone is in the sea around 101.9° W, 9.9° N. The vast majority of the devices were destroyed by ablation during re-entry. I search this location on the google earth: Altitude at this point -3675m. The nearest cities in Mexico are around 770~800km away. The place here is ok but just a bit scary. Edited November 4, 2022 by steve9728 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoeSchmuckatelli Posted November 4, 2022 Share Posted November 4, 2022 (edited) On 10/31/2022 at 3:52 AM, SunlitZelkova said: core stage of the Long March 5B LV https://www.space.com/china-long-march-5b-rocket-falls-into-pacific-ocean "U.S. Space Command confirmed the uneventful reentry on Friday (Nov. 4)" Edited November 4, 2022 by JoeSchmuckatelli Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darthgently Posted November 4, 2022 Share Posted November 4, 2022 This reoccurring huge booster random reentry thing is a bit mind boggling given the CCP's normal hypersensitivity to how they are perceived with regards to technical advancement. They have to know how this, and dropping lower boosters on their villages, looks to the rest of the world. They focus on the omelette, not the eggs, I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCgothic Posted November 4, 2022 Share Posted November 4, 2022 Reports are the stage broke into 2 early in the re-entry and that's why it came down quite far short of the predicted centre. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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