Don't tell me correlation isn't causation!

[JoeSchmuckatelli]

 Summer Solstice, heat-wave, Full Strawberry moon

https://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/2024/06/20/summer-solstice-june-2024-followed-by-full-moon-during-heat-wave/74155767007/

Massive heat wave this week - and it's a full moon?

Coincidence?  I think not! 

 

 

 

 

 

Wear your SPF tonight! 

(Have a little fun with this - bring on the correlation = causation fun!) 

[kerbiloid]

Маленький мальчик на кухне играл.
Сзади бульдозер к нему подъезжал.
Бульдозер? На кухне? Ха-ха! Это бред!
Смеётесь? Ну, смейтесь. А мальчика нет.

A teen boy was playing in kitchen like blind.
Bulldozer was crawling to him from behind.
"Bulldozer? In kitchen? Haha! Tell us more!"
You're laughing? Keep laughing. No boy anymore.

2 hours ago, JoeSchmuckatelli said:

Massive heat wave this week - and it's a full moon?

Coincidence?  I think not! 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Diana

Moon is a reflector.

Just add moar microwaves.

[Nuke]

news is like "its freaking hot". looks at calendar its summer. yep that checks out.

sometimes its easier to get an idea of what the weather is doing if you look at the sky rather than the tv.

 

my sister used to have this weather forcasting system at her place in the bush, it was in the form of a peice of rope with googley eyes and a little hat. it had a little sign that read:

weather forcasting worm

if im moving its windy
if im wet its rainy
if im dry its sunny
if im stiff its really cold
if im missing, ive been stolen

photo ommited because i dont trust cloud services

i trust that worm more than any hot and well dressed weather girl.

Edited June 21, 2024 by Nuke

[K^2]

24 minutes ago, Nuke said:

i trust that worm more than any hot and well dressed weather girl.

Thanks for saving me the trouble of getting dressed up, I guess.

_{And because this is 90% meme thread, apparently....}

24 minutes ago, Nuke said:

news is like "its freaking hot". looks at calendar its summer. yep that checks out.

Ok, sure, but also to be fair, there's this data.

https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Screenshot_2024-04-23_at_13.33.12.png

 

Edited June 21, 2024 by K^2

[Lisias]

Correlation isn't causation!

You see, every single day in which I read about a heat wave on somewhere in the World, I had taken a shower in that day. Should I stop bathing to prevent heat waves?

[JoeSchmuckatelli]

Well - to be fair, I visited Disney World 20 some odd years ago with this hot chick I knew (lawyer, not a weather girl) and now we have kids.  From this I can deduce that Disney isn't just family oriented but it may in fact be a leading cause of Families.  

Edited June 21, 2024 by JoeSchmuckatelli

[TheSaint]

Weather guessers....

When I went to boot camp (in Orlando, Florida, back when there was actually a Navy boot camp there) one of my drill instructors was an Aerographer's Mate, i.e. a weather guesser. My other DI was always giving her crap about it. Practically every morning. "Hey, weather guesser, what's the day gonna be like?" "Sunny all day chief." "Okay, boys, you heard her, pack your raincoats...."

[K^2]

A thing a lot of people in analytics and machine learning know is that somebody reliably giving you guesses that are notably less than 50% correct, it's just as good as being correct more often than not. Because, as is easy to guess, you can always flip their predictions in the analysis.

So reliably incorrect weather guessers can still give you a good prediction after correction.

[JoeSchmuckatelli]

38 minutes ago, K^2 said:

reliably giving you guesses... 

38 minutes ago, K^2 said:

just as good as being correct

 

This reminds me of an Officer friend who hated my reliance on intuition.  Exactly because I was more often than not 'right' in what he called "guessing".  For some reason that annoyed him. 

He kept trying to pin me down on how I knew the answer - especially when the answer was predictive of something that hadn't happened yet - and (when it did) I was still right. 

He wasn't satisfied with the fact that solid intuition is based on a lot of study and observation and simply paying attention.  We were both Jarheads, so the word 'heuristics' never came up... 

But he was a guy who had to have objective facts laid out before him to make a decision - when I was a guy who spotted trends and predicted outcomes.  To him, trends were not facts. 

Ultimately an unsatisfying conversation - we effectively were speaking different languages. 

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/can-we-rely-on-our-intuition/

https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/abs/intelligence-of-intuition/heuristics-the-tools-of-intuition/8D68CFA2E526EF5FFA296FBA1A6D8B45

... And, for some reason, we are no longer friends. 

[K^2]

14 minutes ago, JoeSchmuckatelli said:

This reminds me of an Officer friend who hated my reliance on intuition.

Intuition paired with critical thinking can be a very powerful tool. After all, checking if you got the correct answer is usually a lot easier than finding it in the first place. And even if after checking your answer you realized that your intuition was wrong, it probably gave you some insight in the process.

The only real problem is when people go with their "gut" against the evidence. But you don't seem like the type to do that.

Confirmation bias is also a thing, but that bites people in the rear regardless of whether they think they're following intuition or evidence, and in fact, the tunnel vision tends to get a lot narrower with the latter, due to misplaced confidence. Hence it's the critical thought that counts. Focusing on, "How can I be wrong about this?"

[JoeSchmuckatelli]

3 minutes ago, K^2 said:

only real problem is when people go with their "gut" against the evidence. But you don't seem like the type to do that

To be fair - I only trust intuition in the rare few fields where I have some experience based expertise.   Thus it's really 'using the currently available evidence combined with experience' to make a decision. 

It consistently fails elsewhere - like anticipating the Market - something I only have passing familiarity with. 

7 minutes ago, K^2 said:

Confirmation bias

Is actually dealt with quite well if you are the kind of person who is OK with admitting you were wrong.  That is apparently hard for some people 

[darthgently]

15 minutes ago, K^2 said:

And even if after checking your answer you realized that your intuition was wrong, it probably gave you some insight in the process.

This.  Testing a strong intuition has value in either leveraging experience or in better characterizing one's bias.  A win either way

 

[Nuke]

as someone with a questionable past and uncertain future, i like to live in the present. sometimes im alarmed when my predictions are true, until i think of all the other predictions that were not. then i realize they are in proper proportion and that i focus on now and forget about later.

Edited June 21, 2024 by Nuke

[kerbiloid]

9 hours ago, JoeSchmuckatelli said:

Well - to be fair, I visited Disney World 20 some odd years ago with this hot chick I knew (lawyer, not a weather girl) and now we have kids.  From this I can deduce that Disney isn't just family oriented but it may in fact be a leading cause of Families.  

Disney.

Mice are one of the symbols of fertility. So, it worx.

[sevenperforce]

This is the hottest summer of my life.

It is the coolest summer of the rest of my life.

[JoeSchmuckatelli]

39 minutes ago, sevenperforce said:

This is the hottest summer of my life.

It is the coolest summer of the rest of my life.

Possible but unlikely.  Even if the trend remains upward over the next decade... It will still only be a trend. 

[kerbiloid]

Either he means global warming, or some hot things in his life, making this summer for him the coolest evah.

[JoeSchmuckatelli]

2 hours ago, kerbiloid said:

Either he means global warming, or some hot things in his life, making this summer for him the coolest evah.

A better read.

[Nuke]

i would be complaining about the heat like everyone else. but then we got a week of rain on the forcast (the worm is in agreement). so carry on.

i know if it hit 90 here id put on my swim trunks jump off the dock and swim with the sea lions. keep in mind thats only like 2 blocks away.

Edited June 24, 2024 by Nuke

[K^2]

27 minutes ago, Nuke said:

i know if it hit 90 here id put on my swim trunks jump off the dock and swim with the sea lions. keep in mind thats only like 2 blocks away.

Our water never gets warm enough for a swim without a wetsuit. Otherwise, I'd probably be doing a lot of the same. There are a few bays not far from here that do heat up by end of July-August, but they all involve a bit of driving. And when the weather's good, also lots of standing in traffic to get to them.

For anyone who doesn't mind a wetsuit and into surfing, though, these are some of the best locations. (Though, I suspect, same can be said about your area.)

[JoeSchmuckatelli]

Like a deadbeat dad, sperm were thought to give eggs little more than the initial bang that gets things started. 

Possibly the most humorous start to a Science News article I've seen in a while

Sperm Spills Its RNA Secret | Science | AAAS

For context:  Researchers have shown for the first time that sperm also carry RNA, some of which may provide important signals to the developing embryo.

 

 

 

Wrong thread

 

... whatever - my access to this sub is so wonky I'm just glad it posted

 

[Nuke]

5 hours ago, K^2 said:

Our water never gets warm enough for a swim without a wetsuit. Otherwise, I'd probably be doing a lot of the same. There are a few bays not far from here that do heat up by end of July-August, but they all involve a bit of driving. And when the weather's good, also lots of standing in traffic to get to them.

For anyone who doesn't mind a wetsuit and into surfing, though, these are some of the best locations. (Though, I suspect, same can be said about your area.)

there are a couple places in alaska you can surf, but im not exactly sure where or why anyone would want to. i got in the water once, and probably got out again a half a second later. nope.  then there are the lunatics who do it in winter.

[Superfluous J]

On 6/21/2024 at 8:07 AM, JoeSchmuckatelli said:

(Have a little fun with this - bring on the correlation = causation fun!) 

[Nuke]

1 hour ago, Superfluous J said:

im not too sure about that. it is a cat after all.

[K^2]

We all know that cats can survive a fall from an arbitrary height. Things they land on, however, aren't as lucky. This cat, evidently, fell from pretty high up. Possibly an airplane.