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KSP2 Hype Train Thread


GregroxMun
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24 minutes ago, Catto said:

I think april, march, or very late february

I feel like we can rule out April because of the T2 earnings call a few months ago still showing KSP2 as being in Q4 FY23, which would end March 31: https://forum.kerbalspaceprogram.com/index.php?/topic/208136-t2s-upcoming-earnings-call-may-16/page/3/#comment-4133124

Edited by whatsEJstandfor
Got the FY wrong
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4 hours ago, Ahres said:

No shadows implemented (in this image) - neither Kerbal on terrain nor terrain on terrain.

Terrain on terrain shadows are implemented - you can see them in the background where part of a hill is in shadow and another part is in sunlight

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19 minutes ago, Catto said:

I think april, march, or very late february

If you add the time it takes for the pitch drop to drop then measured from when KSP original was released March or so would be about right.  I don't think the pitch drop hint was chaff.  It had real information packed in it.  I'm sticking with that theory as it fits with other statements made like Q4 FY22

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1 minute ago, whatsEJstandfor said:

Until someone from Intercept says otherwise, I will never be convinced that the pitch drop thing was anything other than a goof

It would be an incredible coincidence given the pitch drop frequency, the Q4 FY22 statement, and elapsed time since KSP original left beta for release.  Time will tell.  Of course I hope it is sooner

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12 hours ago, t_v said:

Terrain on terrain shadows are implemented - you can see them in the background where part of a hill is in shadow and another part is in sunlight

I looked hard at that far-off hill and decided terrain shadow isn't implemented in that image. I went back and looked again this morning... and I still think it isn't. Sure, there are unlit faces. But there's a difference between being unlit and actually having higher terrain casting shadow on lower terrain. Maybe you're in the same boat as I was: I didn't realize there was a difference until one of KSP's updates added it in as an optional setting. 

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2 hours ago, Rutabaga22 said:

What is the pitch drop hint?

I don't have a link handy but one of the devs posted a cryptic photo of the ongoing pitch drop experiment in the UK, iirc.  The experiment has been running a few hundred years or something like that with a drop of pitch dropping every 7.x to 8 years or so.  I'm not googling anything so all from memory; no warranties implied

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4 hours ago, Rutabaga22 said:

What is the pitch drop hint?

Its not really a thing. On April 1st the official April fools joke about cutting Dres from development came later in the day and one of the forum moderators made a joke post about the pitch experiment. Its all fun I suppose but some folks decided to read way too much into it. 

Edited by Pthigrivi
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On 9/12/2022 at 5:09 PM, Thundy said:

Another KSP2 screenshot, what! Are they hinting for something?

For those trying to see the scatter effects: this is the higher-fidelity image than the one posted directly into the forum.

Once the tweet is opened... click the picture again.

@Superfluous J - I'm with you... I did not realize until today that the squiggle was supposed to be a spoon.  Thought it was a goof!

Edited by JoeSchmuckatelli
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On 9/14/2022 at 10:02 PM, Pthigrivi said:

Its not really a thing. On April 1st the official April fools joke about cutting Dres from development came later in the day and one of the forum moderators made a joke post about the pitch experiment. Its all fun I suppose but some folks decided to read way too much into it. 

So far the timing is fitting within  15% if we are to see KSP2 between now and Q4 FY22.  Even if meant as a joke, it could end up being very accurate.  I'd appreciate if you'd allow me to decide how seriously I'm taking it and how much I'm trolling

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5 hours ago, darthgently said:

So far the timing is fitting within  15% if we are to see KSP2 between now and Q4 FY22.  Even if meant as a joke, it could end up being very accurate.  I'd appreciate if you'd allow me to decide how seriously I'm taking it and how much I'm trolling

No have fun and speculate away! Thats all we do here. I guess just pencil me down as skeptical. 

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3 hours ago, Pthigrivi said:

No have fun and speculate away! Thats all we do here

Grin.  I just wanted to point out that National Churro Day, 2023 is not out of the question!

(/snark) 

That said - from the purely speculative standpoint, I don't think CY 2022 will be a thing.  Despite the (US) holiday season being incredibly lucrative - its also insanely competitive (least of which is the competition for review space).  Publishers know all this. 

Quote

 

Christmas is, of course, an important time to to release your game. The festive sales window is hugely lucrative and, for some companies, can account for up to 60% of their annual business.

But it's also a hugely competitive and expensive time to release games. In 2018 it was a bloodbath, and for every successful product there were two that didn't achieve the results that were expected.

Although most websites will try to write about interesting subjects regardless of the amount of eyeballs they attract, the success of these sites are still ultimately defined by the size of the readership. That means that journalists and editors will favour more popular games over smaller products.  ...game isn't exactly competing with these products, but when it came to getting press to cover it, the job proved impossible. Journalists were too busy writing guides for Red Dead and reviewing the next batch of big releases. 

... 

Marketing costs in the early parts of the year are cheaper and you're competing against fewer titles. If you have a small marketing budget consider these windows; it's where your money will travel the furthest.

 

 

https://www.gamesindustry.biz/when-to-release-your-video-game

No one wants to compete with Reskinned Generic Wargame(Tag) 16 with anything quirky or intelligent. 

 

... 

For various reasons - I think our tea-leaf prognostication pointing to the March/April timeframe are the earliest, best-case scenario for the release... But... 

It can still be later 

Edited by JoeSchmuckatelli
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5 hours ago, Pthigrivi said:

No have fun and speculate away! Thats all we do here. I guess just pencil me down as skeptical. 

I think the Q4 FY22 is a fairly hard bright line as that is what investors were told in legally required communications. 

Even if they have pull all-nighters for a week at the end of March, they will try to get it out by end of March '23.

I truly hope it is sooner, but I can't help but notice if they did release at that last minute it would make the pitch drop theory very accurate.  I'm being amused not prophetic, if that isn't clear, lol

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22 minutes ago, JoeSchmuckatelli said:

That's a projection, not a legally binding promise, FYI 

Yeah - best course! 

I stated the communications were legally required, not binding.  Typically products release dates given to investors and shareholders are taken very seriously as no one wants bad press among brokers and such.  Having worked on more than a few projects I know the heat goes up a lot when a shareholder expected deadline approaches

Edited by darthgently
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Shareholder or not, I suppose the publisher would like to stop only pouring money into the product and start earning some. I would be VERY surprised if they agreed to extend development beyond Q4FY23. Especially since now all the prognosis is public (thanks to earnings reports).

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I went back (today) and looked at the Star Theory-released hype stuff from 2019.  To my chagrin I have to admit that MP is one of the planned core features.  Despite this - it was pretty obvious back then that solving the issues of time warp and trees (collidable) and pairing scatter between viewers was going to be a problem.  There is no proof supporting my inference for believing MP to be the source of delay... But no proof I'm wrong either. 

That said... We are awfully close to 'end of April' being 6 months away. 

(Know what rhymes with Hype?  Gripe.) 

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12 minutes ago, JoeSchmuckatelli said:

I went back (today) and looked at the Star Theory-released hype stuff from 2019.  To my chagrin I have to admit that MP is one of the planned core features.  Despite this - it was pretty obvious back then that solving the issues of time warp and trees (collidable) and pairing scatter between viewers was going to be a problem.  There is no proof supporting my inference for believing MP to be the source of delay... But no proof I'm wrong either. 

That said... We are awfully close to 'end of April' being 6 months away. 

(Know what rhymes with Hype?  Gripe.) 

What makes scatter and collidables such a problem? Couldn't they just share the same seed instead of using a random one?  I'm sure I'm probably oversimplifying, but at the same time don't see the game stopper 

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1 minute ago, darthgently said:

What makes scatter and collidables such a problem? Couldn't they just share the same seed instead of using a random one?  I'm sure I'm probably oversimplifying, but at the same time don't see the game stopper 

One of the things they talked about is with the collidable scatter is persistence.  Scatter generally isn't persistent.  Seed sharing wasn't discussed, IIRC.  But again - the folks invited to the showing mostly got "game in progress" type answers, and there was a LOT of speculation. 

 

You can ignore me... I'm just griping. 

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