totm nov 2023 SpaceX Discussion Thread

[Beccab]

 

[Beccab]

 

[tater]

5am the 28th.

[SunlitZelkova]

My following of space in elementary school (2009-2011~) was more about facts rather than news, and I didn’t pay much attention to it at all after that until 2020. So here is a question to veteran Space fans- how common were launches prior to SpaceX? At what point did streaming of launches become common?

I’m just amazed at how often it happens, and am trying to grasp the extent of such an extraordinary feat.

[cubinator]

40 minutes ago, SunlitZelkova said:

My following of space in elementary school (2009-2011~) was more about facts rather than news, and I didn’t pay much attention to it at all after that until 2020. So here is a question to veteran Space fans- how common were launches prior to SpaceX? At what point did streaming of launches become common?

I’m just amazed at how often it happens, and am trying to grasp the extent of such an extraordinary feat.

SpaceX launches what, half? Two-thirds? of all the orbital rockets of the world every year?

[JoeSchmuckatelli]

Streaming is also relatively new.  I mean I remember when e-mail was novel, disk drives were measured in mb, and if you wanted to download a patch for a game you started it just before you went to bed.  So the pace of change in computing and the internet has been insane. 

I don't remember ever seeing a rocket launch on the internet until just a few years ago.  I have watched televised launches (including the ill fated shuttle) - but what really caught my imagination was SX trying to land a rocket - that was pure insanity.  I'm pretty sure I watched all of that on the net. 

So I'd think that rocket videos and SX are likely connected (even if indirectly). 

Edited December 24, 2022 by JoeSchmuckatelli

[tater]

I used to watch launches on NASATV back when we had to have a dish for that (we put one up on top of one of the engineering buildings largely for that purpose—my buddy at MCC was also a ham, and we put a huge antenna on the roof as well for ham radio—we got it from salvage, and it even had a crow's nest).

[CatastrophicFailure]

19 hours ago, SunlitZelkova said:

My following of space in elementary school (2009-2011~) was more about facts rather than news, and I didn’t pay much attention to it at all after that until 2020. So here is a question to veteran Space fans- how common were launches prior to SpaceX? At what point did streaming of launches become common?

I’m just amazed at how often it happens, and am trying to grasp the extent of such an extraordinary feat.

It is extraordinary indeed. 2021 set a record for most rocket launches in a year, beating out previous records from decades ago, and I’m sure 2022 has already beaten that. Infographic below, there was a real dearth of launches around the turn of the century, picking up greatly once SpaceX came on the scene (not saying it was entirely their doing).  Things have greatly picked up in the last 5 years or so, and streaming makes it much more accessible. Other than the odd Shuttle launch, live rocket launches were rare during that dark age, at most there might be a quick blurb on the evening news. 
 

as the saying goes, what a time to be alive. 
 

[SOURCE]

 

[Deddly]

10 minutes ago, CatastrophicFailure said:

Nice, thanks for the graphic and the source. So these are the figures up to 2019. 

According to Wikipedia, the latest figures are:

2020: 104 successful orbital launches

2021: 135 successful orbital launches

2022: 174 successful orbital launches

[CatastrophicFailure]

1 hour ago, Deddly said:

Nice, thanks for the graphic and the source. So these are the figures up to 2019. 

According to Wikipedia, the latest figures are:

2020: 104 successful orbital launches

2021: 135 successful orbital launches

2022: 174 successful orbital launches

Dangit, those are the pages I was actually looking for! 

[Deddly]

I haven't been fully keeping up on Starship. Months and months ago, there was a lot of talk about Booster 4 and Starship 20 going for an "orbital" test. All that they were waiting for was regulatory approval. Didn't they get approval? Why haven't we seen any more test flights?

[RealKerbal3x]

2 minutes ago, Deddly said:

I haven't been fully keeping up on Starship. Months and months ago, there was a lot of talk about Booster 4 and Starship 20 going for an "orbital" test. All that they were waiting for was regulatory approval. Didn't they get approval? Why haven't we seen any more test flights?

They completed the environmental assessment for Starbase some months ago, but are still waiting on the launch license which would represent full regulatory approval to launch.

Booster 4 and Ship 20 were put out to pasture early this year and we're currently looking at Booster 7 and Ship 24 for the orbital launch. Both vehicles seem to be progressing into their final tests before launch, but any launch date prediction beyond Soon^TM probably won't age well.

[Beccab]

9 minutes ago, RealKerbal3x said:

They completed the environmental assessment for Starbase some months ago, but are still waiting on the launch license which would represent full regulatory approval to launch.

Booster 4 and Ship 20 were put out to pasture early this year and we're currently looking at Booster 7 and Ship 24 for the orbital launch. Both vehicles seem to be progressing into their final tests before launch, but any launch date prediction beyond Soon^TM probably won't age well.

Agreed - any prediction made before the 33-engine SF is completed (which should be next on B7's schedule) is going to be little more than a bet. We'll know a firmer schedule only once that one is done and B7 certified for flight

On the good side:

Soon, no more heat shield removal to lift Starship with the crane!

[Meecrob]

If Zach Golden is on the right track, it seems SpaceX removed too many features from the launch mount and are currently adding them back in (the best part is no part). If you like deep dives, I highly recommend his youtube channel.... search CSI_Starbase.

 

 

Edit, I forgot to mention the recent structural tests/modifications...I'm not sure anyone has an exact idea, but clearly there is concern over the structure...nothing major it seems...just added weight to a prototype that is already overweight....I doubt it will affect the production versions of Starship

 

 

Edit again, anyone have any news on the heatshield-less starships? What are people thinking? Expendable Starlink launchers or HLS? Logically, I'd say Starlink launchers, but NASA might have written in a timeframe into the HLS contract.

Edited December 25, 2022 by Meecrob

[Beccab]

32 minutes ago, Meecrob said:

Edit again, anyone have any news on the heatshield-less starships? What are people thinking? Expendable Starlink launchers or HLS? Logically, I'd say Starlink launchers, but NASA might have written in a timeframe into the HLS contract.

It's speculated to be the first depot/tanker test vehicle, and I agree honestly. Iirc, S27 or so is the next heatshielded starship in the series

[Meecrob]

That makes way more sense than what I was thinking!

 

 

So my follow up then is has anyone seen different tank sizes for the refueller? Or is it probably gonna be a standard Starship, just with recoverability removed?

Edited December 25, 2022 by Meecrob

[Beccab]

4 minutes ago, Meecrob said:

That makes way more sense than what I was thinking!

 

 

So my follow up then is has anyone seen different tank sizes for the refueller? Or is it probably gonna be a standard Starship, just with recoverability removed?

We know from NASA that between the launches they are tracking in particular after OFT the first one is a test of tank-to-tank orbital fuel transfer inside the same starship, so probably it's going to be a naked starship with additional internal components and perhaps additional tanks in order to make the first true orbital cryo prop transfer test. It could also be a longer term fuel storage test perhaps - they don't seem to have additional power systems they would need for a true long term test, but it doesn't take a lot to beat the 10 hours or so record that Centaur holds currently

[Meecrob]

Especially if they are not using hydrogen.  I don't want to be a downer on SLS, and the shuttle, but I can't imagine dealing with hydrogen leaks in space.

Edit: I meant to also say "with recent hydrogen leaks with SLS"  That took time to deal with on the pad. I don't know what they would do in space.

 

Obviously hydrogen has its advantages, but I suspect orbital refuelling was in the past considered too much of a cash sink to engineer it. Also certain senators, but I'm just joking on that last one

Edited December 25, 2022 by Meecrob

[mikegarrison]

11 hours ago, Meecrob said:

Especially if they are not using hydrogen.  I don't want to be a downer on SLS, and the shuttle, but I can't imagine dealing with hydrogen leaks in space.

Edit: I meant to also say "with recent hydrogen leaks with SLS"  That took time to deal with on the pad. I don't know what they would do in space.

 

Obviously hydrogen has its advantages, but I suspect orbital refuelling was in the past considered too much of a cash sink to engineer it. Also certain senators, but I'm just joking on that last one

The leaks were from the fueling/topping-off process. However, the only reason they are dangerous is because there is oxygen in the atmosphere. Leaking hydrogen is not combustible in space.

The main problem is temperature control. Space is a very good insulator, but you would need to build some sort of double-wall thing (like a Thermos) that kept the tank from receiving direct solar radiation. Hydrogen also does tend to permeate its way right through most other materials. And it embrittles many metals.

[tater]

 

[Brotoro]

Falcon 9 first stage landing successful!

[Beccab]

60th SpaceX launch of the year!

If Friday's launch schedule holds, we'll see the 60th falcon 9 of the year as well

[Beccab]

 

[tater]

Here's the replay:

 

 

[tater]

6 hours