totm nov 2023 SpaceX Discussion Thread

[sevenperforce]

Elon says it's a grid fin actuator.

Trying again on Saturday.

 

[Royalswissarmyknife]

13 minutes ago, Flavio hc16 said:

aaaaannnnd.....scrub

 

 

 

[Geonovast]

I thought they couldn't do anything that required closing the beach on the weekends?

Or is that just during summer?

[CBase]

The truth is, starship was sitting too long on the pad. Waiting is not a design requirement at spacex 

[tater]

 

14 minutes ago, Geonovast said:

I thought they couldn't do anything that required closing the beach on the weekends?

Or is that just during summer?

They are allowed, just a limited number. Any unused in November might as well get used as it resets beginning of the year.

[JoeSchmuckatelli]

Poop.  I had a plan to have my students watch this.

...

Guess I now have to teach something.

BTW - Etruscans had a non-IndoEuropean language, in case anyone needs to know that for the quiz scheduled for after Thanksgiving Break!

[Piscator]

6 minutes ago, JoeSchmuckateli said:

BTW - Etruscans had a non-IndoEuropean language, in case anyone needs to know that for the quiz scheduled for after Thanksgiving Break!

Would have got that right.

The rescheduling to Saturday fits my personal schedule perfectly but I hope they don't have to postpone it any further.

[tater]

 

 

[Pthigrivi]

I guess we’re also not gonna talk about it here but boy this would be a whole lot easier to get exited about if it wasn’t entangled with the Elons increasingly impossible to ignore moral and emotional implosion. Hard not to root for this thing blowing up on the pad at this point.

Edited November 17, 2023 by Pthigrivi

[SunlitZelkova]

29 minutes ago, Pthigrivi said:

I guess we’re also not gonna talk about it here but boy this would be a whole lot easier to get exited about if it wasn’t entangled with the Elons increasingly impossible to ignore moral and emotional implosion. Hard not to root for this thing blowing up on the pad at this point.

We are not going to talk about it because it is off topic.

If we can avoid talking about a certain conflict in the Russian thread, and politics in the Chinese thread, we can do it here.

I haven’t seen anyone wish for Soyuz and Shenzhou to explode just because of the politics in those two countries.

[Pthigrivi]

19 minutes ago, SunlitZelkova said:

We are not going to talk about it because it is off topic.

If we can avoid talking about a certain conflict in the Russian thread, and politics in the Chinese thread, we can do it here.

I haven’t seen anyone wish for Soyuz and Shenzhou to explode just because of the politics in those two countries.

This isn’t political. This is a commercial, private enterprise with, at this point, no lives at stake. If the self appointed owner, CEO, and chief technology officer has utterly lost his mind that seems apropos to the future and value of this enterprise. We’re all talking about “hey kids! Go watch the cool shiney rocket and don’t think too much about where the money is coming from or where its going!” Thats feeling increasingly irresponsible. At this point it might be better for the industry and humanity generally if this spruce goose was put to bed and let Stoke or any number of other companies take up the mantle. 

Edited November 17, 2023 by Pthigrivi

[Deddly]

19 minutes ago, Pthigrivi said:

...the self appointed owner, CEO, and chief technology officer has utterly lost his mind... 

If the subject you are referring to is a matter we are allowed to discuss freely on this forum, then go ahead because it is on topic for this thread. If, however, someone were to ask what you mean and you are not able to explain what you are referring to because it would break the rules, then we shouldn't be mentioning it at all.

[SunlitZelkova]

1 hour ago, Pthigrivi said:

This isn’t political. This is a commercial, private enterprise with, at this point, no lives at stake. If the self appointed owner, CEO, and chief technology officer has utterly lost his mind that seems apropos to the future and value of this enterprise. We’re all talking about “hey kids! Go watch the cool shiney rocket and don’t think too much about where the money is coming from or where its going!” Thats feeling increasingly irresponsible. At this point it might be better for the industry and humanity generally if this spruce goose was put to bed and let Stoke or any number of other companies take up the mantle. 

Can you explain what exactly makes Musk insane without referring to politics? I also dislike Musk, but I couldn’t say why on this forum without going wildly off topic. This isn’t the Musk thread or Twitter/X thread, or the “Musk’s tweets thread”, it’s the SpaceX thread.

I don’t think Starship is a Spruce Goose. It has numerous potential applications for spaceflight, unlike the Spruce Goose which wasn’t completed until after the situation that required it (Liberty ships falling like flies in the Atlantic) ended.

[Pthigrivi]

3 hours ago, Pthigrivi said:

This isn’t political. This is a commercial, private enterprise with, at this point, no lives at stake. If the self appointed owner, CEO, and chief technology officer has utterly lost his mind that seems apropos to the future and value of this enterprise. We’re all talking about “hey kids! Go watch the cool shiney rocket and don’t think too much about where the money is coming from or where its going!” Thats feeling increasingly irresponsible. At this point it might be better for the industry and humanity generally if this spruce goose was put to bed and let Stoke or any number of other companies take up the mantle. 

Point taken, I hear you. I’ll leave it alone in the interest of peace. Needless to say in the real world this is a problem and its really too bad for all the legit folks working on this thing. 

[KSK]

3 hours ago, Pthigrivi said:

This isn’t political. This is a commercial, private enterprise with, at this point, no lives at stake. If the self appointed owner, CEO, and chief technology officer has utterly lost his mind that seems apropos to the future and value of this enterprise. We’re all talking about “hey kids! Go watch the cool shiney rocket and don’t think too much about where the money is coming from or where its going!” Thats feeling increasingly irresponsible. At this point it might be better for the industry and humanity generally if this spruce goose was put to bed and let Stoke or any number of other companies take up the mantle. 

Tell that first part to the employees of that private enterprise.  Even, taking that article with a large pinch of salt, it's still pretty damning. And I suspect that passing the mantle to other companies isn't a long term solution to the problem.

I'm not going to rehash what I've already said on the 'A City on Mars' thread on these forums, and this is probably skirting too close to politics anyway but my answer to @SunlitZelkova's question is: Musk is insane because he's charging headlong towards a goal of dubious value without caring who gets chewed up and spat out in the process.

And now, I'll shut up in the interests of keeping this thread open.

 

Edited November 17, 2023 by KSK

[JoeSchmuckatelli]

1 hour ago, Pthigrivi said:

 all the legit folks working on this thing. 

... And they are doing something cool!

1 hour ago, KSK said:

a goal of dubious value 

Shrug.  Mars colony doesn't excite me. 

A truly innovative rocket of this scale that works?  Game changer. 

(Even if deep sea mining is likelier to be profitable in the near term than any industrialization of space... Eventually we do have to get off this rock or die. 

(Ask the dinosaurs) 

[KSK]

12 minutes ago, JoeSchmuckatelli said:

... And they are doing something cool!

Shrug.  Mars colony doesn't excite me. 

A truly innovative rocket of this scale that works?  Game changer. 

(Even if deep sea mining is likelier to be profitable in the near term than any industrialization of space... Eventually we do have to get off this rock or die. 

(Ask the dinosaurs) 

Couldn't ask the dinosaurs but I did ask a little birdie - is that close enough?

They thought that getting off this rock and going anywhere else in the solar system sounded like a terrible idea compared to staying put in this nice warm environment with breathable air and food for the taking. They did reckon that detecting and deflecting any space rocks that threatened to mess things up, would be a good plan, and conceded that a big rocket could probably help with that.

Maybe I just spoke to a particularly short-sighted birdie but I'm inclined to agree.

[Pthigrivi]

34 minutes ago, JoeSchmuckatelli said:

... And they are doing something cool!

They are and it really  is. Thats about all thats keeping me interested. 

[mikegarrison]

3 hours ago, KSK said:

Musk is insane because he's charging headlong towards a goal of dubious value without caring who gets chewed up and spat out in the process.

Not really a definition of "insane". I mean, I suppose it can be. We use the word quixotic to mean someone obsessed with a goal that is probably meaningless and may be impossible, and Don Quixote was, if possibly not "insane", clearly not thinking correctly.

I am not going to judge Musk's sanity, because a) I'm not qualified for that, and b) I don't know him. But certain aspects of his public behavior (and his fanbase) are extremely unappealing to me. I am reminded of Howard Hughes (who was before my time, FWIW). Or the fictional Citizen Kane. Sometimes giving people no limits (like fantastic personal wealth and power) has bad effects on them. Or possibly, if it is not a cause, it is at least an enabler.

I feel like I'm watching someone fall down a rabbit hole to a very specific kind of wonderland. And not a very nice wonderland either. The kind populated by Sad Puppies and Gamergate hashtaggers and Great Replacement believers.

But Musk != SpaceX, sort of. And yet, he has such a cult of personality (and so much ownership and control of the company) that Musk very certainly is entangled with the fortunes and future of SpaceX. Possibly, if it became necessary, SpaceX could end up independent from Elon Musk. But at the moment, it is hard to visualize a path to that.

1 hour ago, KSK said:

Couldn't ask the dinosaurs but I did ask a little birdie - is that close enough?

They thought that getting off this rock and going anywhere else in the solar system sounded like a terrible idea compared to staying put in this nice warm environment with breathable air and food for the taking. They did reckon that detecting and deflecting any space rocks that threatened to mess things up, would be a good plan, and conceded that a big rocket could probably help with that.

Maybe I just spoke to a particularly short-sighted birdie but I'm inclined to agree.

Dinosaurs were on the Earth for over 150 million years (not even counting the birds). That is roughly 1000 times longer than hominids have been here. I think that if we last as long as they did, we will have done better than I expect.

Edited November 17, 2023 by mikegarrison

[darthgently]

I'll just put in here that there are plenty of checks and balances operating at SpaceX, Gwynne Shotwell is a good example of a check that has kicked in effectively more than once.  Musk knows he can be wrong and states as much quite often, endlessly really, and puts people around him and in charge that know their jobs and give honest feedback that have provided valuable course corrections many times.  Regulatory agencies are included in the voices he overtly, repeatedly, and actively, depends on for guidance and correction.

His respect for regulations that make sense  is solid.  He is the salient voice calling for regulation of AI for example.  Like any most of us, he wants to understand the logical case behind a regulation.  This is not merely to possibly avoid pointless efficiency-draining compliance should it be illogical, but to be able to comply more effectively with the point of the regulation should it logically apply.   It is not crazy to seek logical  justification of requirements to comply in a sane world, and sane people will do so.  A partially non-sane regulatory system benefits from logic-based questioning if it is to become more sane.

SpaceX's results are a testament to the value of its approach to problems, just as lackluster results of some other outfits and agencies are a testament to their various approaches 

Edited November 17, 2023 by darthgently

[darthgently]

Mars surface has captured Musk's fervor, no doubt.  I lean more to orbital settlements with 1 g spin gravity and such around Earth, the Moon, Mars, and bigger asteroids as nearer-term terrestrial life redoubts.  But Musk has related that focusing on Mars is as much to give a focus of vision in the public mind as for developing off world settlement capability.  He doesn't like pessimism, which is frankly refreshing.  I'm not concerned about the specific target, but rather with enthusiastically growing capability in a life re-affirming direction

[darthgently]

3 hours ago, KSK said:

Tell that first part to the employees of that private enterprise

I don't see paragraphs of vitriol and outrage about boosters landing on villages.  Maybe an ironic joke or comment once in a while, but no real heat behind them.  Why do private corps get held to a higher standard?  It isn't like SpaceX is using troops to test the physiological effects of being near a nuclear detonation, or doing real world, Kessler debris creating, anti-satellite tests or repeatedly dropping boosters on villages.  And, to reiterate, the safety record of SpaceX is on par with similar industries.  No amount of FUD alters the basic facts

[mikegarrison]

1 hour ago, darthgently said:

His respect for regulations that make sense  is solid.

With Musk himself being the one who determines whether they make sense? That's not exactly "regulation".

1 hour ago, darthgently said:

SpaceX's results are a testament to the value of its approach to problems

Or maybe just of survivor bias. There are other companies that have tried the "go fast and break stuff" idea that have ended up ... broken.

In the great dot-com boom of the late 90s there were a lot of companies that burned through all their cash trying to buy market share for their great internet business idea. Some of them became Amazon and Google. Some of them became Pets.com and Webvan and eToys.com.

Edited November 17, 2023 by mikegarrison

[tater]

2 hours ago, JoeSchmuckatelli said:

Shrug.  Mars colony doesn't excite me. 

A truly innovative rocket of this scale that works?  Game changer. 

(Even if deep sea mining is likelier to be profitable in the near term than any industrialization of space... Eventually we do have to get off this rock or die. 

(Ask the dinosaurs) 

This has to happen eventually, or we as a species are dead. I'm not a Mars bro, but the capability existing to even seriously consider creating a self-sustaining colony offworld comes with existential risk mitigation.

[mikegarrison]

11 minutes ago, tater said:

This has to happen eventually, or we as a species are dead.

Got news for you, unfortunately. Eventually the whole universe will be dead.

The issue here is not whether humanity will survive infinitely far into the future, because it won't. The issue is whether leaving Earth might delay our species' inevitable extinction or whether it might, instead, hasten it. And if it does something like trigger wars, that might be a real issue.

If you can redirect an asteroid away from the Earth, that means you can redirect one toward the Earth, too....