tater Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 More from the "don't be fat" department: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/16/health/coronavirus-obesity-higher-risk.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tater Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 LANL model (what my wife's hospital is apparently using): https://covid-19.bsvgateway.org Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tater Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 That Los Alamos model seems pretty good, actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDE Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 9 hours ago, kerbiloid said: She wrote the plot of S.T.A.L.K.E.R. ??? Apparently the plot of the HBO series is a pastiche of her stories and Grigori Medvedev's vastly more reliable Chernobyl Notebook, with some klyukva added on top. 9 hours ago, Superfluous J said: Clicks = $ The outlet in question is not a for-profit enterprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDE Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 (edited) Anyway, back on topic. Spoiler "You were supposed to be the chosen one!" /s I think I'm going to have to draw that graph... while this would initially suggest a dip in Moscow's outbreak, a lot of the "outside the capital" cases are the Moscow Oblast, which is just outside the capital. Edited April 17, 2020 by DDE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superfluous J Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 30 minutes ago, DDE said: The outlet in question is not a for-profit enterprise. I can't read (or identify 100% so if I'm wrong my point merely stands more strongly) Cryllic so I have no way of knowing, but does that site normally post woo-woo garbage? If so, that's enough. If not, I assume wherever they got the story from was doing it for clicks. If not, I don't know. Maybe she donated to them in a totally non profit way, or they get more donations with more clicks. Not-for-profit doesn't mean not-for-money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDE Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 4 hours ago, Superfluous J said: I can't read (or identify 100% so if I'm wrong my point merely stands more strongly) Cryllic so I have no way of knowing 15 hours ago, DDE said: Note that she's being platformed at US taxpayer's expense, too. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radio_Free_Europe/Radio_Liberty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerbiloid Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 It's hard to say how many persons from the world were infected through just one statue. Spoiler U C what I mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDE Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 (edited) OK, we're down to the smart kids' Nobel prize winners now. https://www.cnews.fr/france/2020-04-17/le-coronavirus-est-un-virus-sorti-dun-laboratoire-chinois-avec-de-ladn-de-vih Luc Montagnier thinks it's a ...failed HIV vaccine? Quote They were published in a new journal of which he is chairman of the editorial board, allegedly detecting electromagnetic signals from bacterial DNA (M. pirum and E. coli) in water that had been prepared using agitation and high dilutions, and similar research on electromagnetic detection of HIV DNA in the blood of AIDS patients treated by antiretroviral therapy. Well, you can't blame him for lack of imagination, but apparently the evidence is rather... thin. Edited April 17, 2020 by DDE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tater Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 (edited) First Stanford antibody data: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1.full.pdf Their data implies that by April 1, there were likely 48,000 to 81,000 infected in Santa Clara which is 50-85 times the total number of cofirmed cases on that day (956). While nothing like herd immunity level (not even close), it does change all the resource/death numbers accordingly. Their county dashboard: https://www.sccgov.org/sites/covid19/Pages/dashboard.aspx Their county current CFR is 3.8%, divide by 50-85? That gives an IFR of 0.08% - 0.04% (interesting how close that is to what that Swedish guy has). (that's IFR was my simple division, the paper suggests an inferred IFR of 0.12-0.2%) This below is about the source of the virus, and it's the youtuber who broke the story. He makes a good case (he had lived in China for 10 years, speaks the language, and his wife is Chinese) for a possible accidental release. Spoiler Edited April 17, 2020 by tater Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tater Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 (edited) Wow, looking at the LANL forecast for NY State, they have a best guess deaths for NYS by the end of May as ~26,000 dead (best case ~17k, worst case ~55k). That is 0.16% of 82% of the population of the State (LANL study found R0 to be 5.7, which requires 82% for herd immunity). They are NOT modeling any mitigations, they are simply plotting trends on whatever is actually happening with the numbers in each State. Interesting stuff, and the fact it overlaps at all with the data scientist guy in Sweden is intriguing. The "plus" of that Swedish model is that it burns itself out in ~75 days. The huge minus is obviously that the fuel in that fire is humans. He assumes 100% infection, whereas the actual might be more like 80%, but 80% of the US suffering even seasonal flu level mortality would be a few hundred thousand dead people. If the NYC data is right on the pregnant women, at the same time as this antibody study in terms of infections, NYC had something on the order of 15% of the pop with active cases at the same time as the antibody testing study. Maybe the difference between NY and CA is not that CA is lucky, or did something better, but that CA is just a few doubling periods behind NY. Note that lockdowns could very well be helping here, but it seems like as soon as the brakes are off, we just get more, mostly unseen infections. Unrelated to the antibody testing, the CDC tracking data is not very well curated, the numbers keep changing after they are published, so the reduction in all-cause mortality has been cut a great deal by retroactively adding deaths to data (not the latest week, all the weeks) that was supposedly good, so that link can be safely ignored for a while until the numbers don't have deaths retroactively added to them. Edited April 17, 2020 by tater Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tater Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 IHME is now putting NYS deaths at 21k. This is starting to approximate the Swedish model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Delay Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 So... here's an 'interesting' thing, to put things to scale: If all infected people in the US alone were stacked on top of each other, they'd build a tower that's bigger than Kerbin. And the globally infected are about one third of Earth...Assumption: Body height of 1.80m And then you have people saying "it's just a flu". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tater Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 Don't live in a nursing home: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/17/us/coronavirus-nursing-homes.html?referringSource=articleShare Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StrandedonEarth Posted April 18, 2020 Share Posted April 18, 2020 1 hour ago, tater said: Don't live in a nursing home: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/17/us/coronavirus-nursing-homes.html?referringSource=articleShare And as they're learning here, don't work in multiple nursing homes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tater Posted April 18, 2020 Share Posted April 18, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tater Posted April 18, 2020 Share Posted April 18, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDE Posted April 18, 2020 Share Posted April 18, 2020 On 4/17/2020 at 9:00 AM, DDE said: I think I'm going to have to draw that graph... while this would initially suggest a dip in Moscow's outbreak, a lot of the "outside the capital" cases are the Moscow Oblast, which is just outside the capital. Did the graph. Then got two days' worth of data. That Thursday was an anomaly, I am still in the middle of the country's largest COVID hotspot. https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/04/07/2004999117 Quote The virus may have mutated into its final ‘human-efficient’ form months ago, but stayed inside a bat or other animal or even human for several months without infecting other individuals. Then, it started infecting and spreading among humans between September 13 and December 7, generating the network we present in [the study]. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AHHans Posted April 18, 2020 Share Posted April 18, 2020 It's just a flu they said: Taken from: "Nightshifts as a COVID Cardiologist" by Medlife Crisis (A youtube channel that I can only recommend!) I haven't found that plot on the web as such, but the data is publicly available on the pages of the British ONS: Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales. P.S. Completely unrelated: does anyone know why the forum editor in my browser sometimes detects a pasted link as a link and expands it, and sometimes doesn't? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sh1pman Posted April 18, 2020 Share Posted April 18, 2020 1 hour ago, DDE said: Did the graph. Then got two days' worth of data. That Thursday was an anomaly, I am still in the middle of the country's largest COVID hotspot. I think it’s safe to say that the “quarantine” is either not working at all or is vastly underperforming. The spread rate has been nearly constant for the last two weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerbiloid Posted April 18, 2020 Share Posted April 18, 2020 1 hour ago, DDE said: The virus may have mutated into its final ‘human-efficient’ form months ago, but stayed inside a bat or other animal or even human for several months without infecting other individuals. Then, it started infecting and spreading among humans Spoiler Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDE Posted April 18, 2020 Share Posted April 18, 2020 (edited) 32 minutes ago, kerbiloid said: Reveal hidden contents But is the GRU involved? Spoiler https://tass.ru/obschestvo/8277157 Moscow pulmonologist suggests exanthema (a rash) and livedo reticularis are dermal symptoms, albeit rare. Their frequency is reverse-proportionate with age, so another way to spot young asymptomatics? Edited April 18, 2020 by DDE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flavio hc16 Posted April 18, 2020 Share Posted April 18, 2020 1 hour ago, sh1pman said: I think it’s safe to say that the “quarantine” is either not working at all or is vastly underperforming. The spread rate has been nearly constant for the last two weeks. look at were i live ( Italy), you need a full month of quarantine to start seeeing real results Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDE Posted April 18, 2020 Share Posted April 18, 2020 12 nations, 1 team, and a huge red elephant in the room Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tater Posted April 18, 2020 Share Posted April 18, 2020 15 hours ago, tater said: Don't live in a nursing home: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/17/us/coronavirus-nursing-homes.html?referringSource=articleShare More: Incidence ratio for death vs living in the world out side is 87.3? I assume that means 87 times more likely to die in a nursing home of this. Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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