The Analysis of Sea Levels.

[Hotel26]

3) Earth is in the Goldilocks^[1] zone.

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[1] not the Greta zone

 

Edited November 21, 2023 by Hotel26

[GluttonyReaper]

  On 11/21/2023 at 11:12 AM, darthgently said:

Cloud formation and cover is a vastly chaotic process that is mathematically impossible to accurately model to any real accuracy beyond a few days into the future without perfect knowledge of all inputs and a perfect computer that can simulate faster than reality with no error. 

Weather prediction is a lucrative industry that attracts a lot of R&D. If you want to see current state of the art cloud formation and cloud cover prediction simply observe the accuracy of cloud  predictions hours, days, weeks into the future on weatherunderground.com or an app like Windy (my fave).  IPCC models looking decades into the future don't stand a chance of being remotely accurate.  Clouds are not the only inherently chaotic process that affects climate

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Tangential, but I do find it somewhat funny that we're at the point where we can reasonably simulate galaxy and dark matter web formation... but clouds are still something that totally eludes us. 

[darthgently]

  On 11/22/2023 at 7:28 AM, GluttonyReaper said:

Tangential, but I do find it somewhat funny that we're at the point where we can reasonably simulate galaxy and dark matter web formation... but clouds are still something that totally eludes us. 

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Yes, it seems funny.   The underlying math, timescales, complexity of coupling, and useful resolutions are quite different and difficult to really compare. 

 

[kerbiloid]

  On 11/22/2023 at 7:28 AM, GluttonyReaper said:

we're at the point where we can reasonably simulate galaxy and dark matter web formation

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Not less accurate than any cosmological modelling ever.

[JoeSchmuckatelli]

  On 11/22/2023 at 7:28 AM, GluttonyReaper said:

we can reasonably simulate galaxy and dark matter web

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Well...  There is the S8 tension.  I posted about it in the Science News thread recently.  Also, those models don't generally account for baryonic matter.  Adding baryonic matter to the sim apparently plays havoc with the results. 

Both modeling systems are trying to simulate what we see and avoid input bias - but that's apparently hard to do. 

Edited November 22, 2023 by JoeSchmuckatelli

[GluttonyReaper]

  On 11/22/2023 at 5:02 PM, JoeSchmuckatelli said:

Well...  There is the S8 tension.  I posted about it in the Science News thread recently.  Also, those models don't generally account for baryonic matter.  Adding baryonic matter to the sim apparently plays havoc with the results. 

Both modeling systems are trying to simulate what we see and avoid input bias - but that's apparently hard to do. 

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Bah, you can't toss a pizza in cosmology without hitting some new tension or another...

[kerbiloid]

And btw about both quantum entanglement and gluonic bounds...

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... and the matter-antimatter disparity.
 

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[kerbiloid]

Just to add some on-topic nightmare fuel to the thread.

Was thinking on it for a while, but still have no idea, if it's to be taken seriously.

The Creative Society channel looks rather conspiracy, but the told things look open-sourced, thus I have no opinion, so feel free to have yours.

In any case, the humans look innocent, if it consoles somebody.

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[JoeSchmuckatelli]

...but what about their farts?

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20231120-wildebeest-and-wolves-a-secret-weapon-against-climate-change

"As the science shows, the dynamics of carbon uptake and storage fundamentally changes with the presence or absence of animals,"

...

"...the story of this large antelope reveals the impact wildlife can have on the amount of carbon present in our planet's atmosphere. While it is tempting to look to technical solutions such as renewable energy as the solution to climate change, we may have other allies in the natural world too. Increasing populations of animals such as wildebeest is a largely overlooked, but valuable way of tackling climate change, according to scientists."

[Hotel26]

  On 11/22/2023 at 3:00 PM, kerbiloid said:

Not less accurate than any cosmological modelling ever.

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I'm in.  I'll take the blue pill, please.

Edited November 23, 2023 by Hotel26

[kerbiloid]

  On 11/22/2023 at 9:04 PM, JoeSchmuckatelli said:

...but what about their farts?

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20231120-wildebeest-and-wolves-a-secret-weapon-against-climate-change

"As the science shows, the dynamics of carbon uptake and storage fundamentally changes with the presence or absence of animals,"

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If remove all animals, the climate will be repaired.

The only question is, who will need that climate?

[darthgently]

  On 11/23/2023 at 10:18 AM, kerbiloid said:

If remove all animals, the climate will be repaired.

The only question is, who will need that climate?

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Or, taken to the extreme, the heat death of the universe grants equal peace to all.  Perhaps we can settle for a less "ideal" peace in the meantime.  And maybe even question the long-sought goal of living in non-interesting peaceful times. 

tl;dr -- embrace the suck.

[SunlitZelkova]

  On 11/23/2023 at 10:23 AM, darthgently said:

Or, taken to the extreme, the heat death of the universe grants equal peace to all.  Perhaps we can settle for a less "ideal" peace in the meantime.  And maybe even question the long-sought goal of living in non-interesting peaceful times. 

tl;dr -- embrace the suck.

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I’ve been thinking about this post for awhile, and I don’t think the answer is so black and white.

A lack of peace in the 1930s and 1940s propelled aviation and rocket research, but if things had been more peaceful in the 1960s, perhaps we could have gone to Mars in the 1980s.

I’m also skeptical military research actually benefits civilian society nowadays. Recent news talks about how a good civilian economy is necessary for military innovation, not the other way around.

[darthgently]

  On 11/28/2023 at 3:17 AM, SunlitZelkova said:

I’ve been thinking about this post for awhile, and I don’t think the answer is so black and white.

A lack of peace in the 1930s and 1940s propelled aviation and rocket research, but if things had been more peaceful in the 1960s, perhaps we could have gone to Mars in the 1980s.

I’m also skeptical military research actually benefits civilian society nowadays. Recent news talks about how a good civilian economy is necessary for military innovation, not the other way around.

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Not sure what was black and white about my post.  Seemed nuanced to me at least.  But I like your thoughts on the subject

[SunlitZelkova]

  On 11/28/2023 at 4:33 AM, darthgently said:

Not sure what was black and white about my post.  Seemed nuanced to me at least.  But I like your thoughts on the subject

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I guess what I meant was that peaceful times can be interesting too.

  On 11/28/2023 at 5:21 AM, Pthigrivi said:

 

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(snip)

No one is saying climate change isn’t happening. I’m not a guy who works the oil fields and denies CC’s existence. I still think we should try to achieve carbon neutrality even if it comes at the expense of offing a fair portion of the fossil fuel industry sooner or later.

But I don’t buy the doomerism. It was originally just skepticism at the alarmist views due to some philosophical positions and knowledge of how another scare tactic, that of nuclear winter, doesn’t have much ground to stand on. The recent articles @darthgently and @Hotel26 have raised some valid points about the accuracy of the models being used to predict future climate. Again, I’m not saying I don’t believe it will be warmer in the future, I am just skeptical of the apocalyptic effects it is supposedly going to have.

 

(snip)

 

Edited November 28, 2023 by Gargamel
Response to quoted material redacted.

[Gargamel]

Some content has been removed.     Keep personal and political comments out of the discussion.   

[JoeSchmuckatelli]

Here's a fun little bit of info - Mars affects ocean currents. 

Yes, that Mars. 

Resonance = churn 

https://www.science.org/content/article/mars-may-be-having-profound-impact-earth-s-deep-ocean-currents#:~:text=Every 2.4 million years%2C Mars's,currents and makes them stronger.

 

[farmerben]

I'm skeptical because the cycle they claim to have found is 2.4 million years.  If it was every 26 months, case closed.  But what changes between Earth and Mars on a 2.4 million year cycle?  

[darthgently]

  On 3/14/2024 at 9:03 AM, farmerben said:

I'm skeptical because the cycle they claim to have found is 2.4 million years.  If it was every 26 months, case closed.  But what changes between Earth and Mars on a 2.4 million year cycle?  

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Perhaps the different orbital inclinations, eccentricity, and LAN make the closest approach not every 26 months, but when relative anomalies sync together and occur when both are very near the relative ascending or descending node?  Idk.  2.4M yrs is a very long time.  Maybe the Moon also has to be in an arc that abets the influence also.  That said, I'm skeptical also

Edited March 14, 2024 by darthgently

[farmerben]

The article doesn't give any details of what they found and why they think it is a 2.4 million year cycle, let alone how Mars accounts for it.

And Venus exerts much more gravitational influence on Earth than Mars does, plus has greater inclination.

Edited March 14, 2024 by farmerben

[JoeSchmuckatelli]

  On 3/14/2024 at 12:19 PM, farmerben said:

The article doesn't give any details of what they found and why they think it is a 2.4 million year cycle, let alone how Mars accounts for it.

And Venus exerts much more gravitational influence on Earth than Mars does, plus has greater inclination.

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Did you look at the original? 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-46171-5

 

[kerbiloid]

It's horrible to imagine what the Earth is doing to Mars every 2.4My.

[kerbiloid]

https://www.ft.com/content/eb89cbc1-2cc3-48d4-9c8c-e2c10f2b2ce0

Nukromancy

https://www-rbc-ru.translate.goog/business/17/05/2024/6647482d9a7947e6bd6b8bbc?_x_tr_sl=ru&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=ru&_x_tr_pto=wapp

[JoeSchmuckatelli]

Looking for paleoclimate / archaeological assistance (articles or links) with effects of the Late Antique Little Ice Age (LALIA) (volcanic) on societies in the Americas / southern Africa.  (6th and 7th Centuries - coinciding with the "Dark Ages" of Europe) e.g.  Cooling and societal change during the Late Antique Little Ice Age from 536 to around 660 AD | Nature Geoscience - It's pretty clear that Justinian Plague and mass migrations happened in conjunction with the LALIA  in Eurasia due to cooling temperatures and changes in the weather patterns.  But I'm looking for archaeological or paleoclimate information for the Americas or Sub-Saharan Africa for that time period.

The closest I'm finding is the fall of Teotihuacan ~ 600ish  Teotihuacan - World History Encyclopedia

There is a pretty good correlation between the LIA (starting in the 1300s) with changes in Native American cultures A 600-Year-Old Blueprint for Weathering Climate Change - The Atlantic, including paleoclimate data showing intense droughts in the American Southwest during the LIA.  There is similar climatic variability during the Medieval Warm period impacting Mesoamerican cultures.

It's the earlier pulse I'm looking for; stories / data about the Dark Ages - outside of Europe.

 

Thanks for any help.

(Teaching the correlation between climate change and societal disruptions)

 

Edit - adding that Great Zimbabwe flourished just as Eurasia was going into the LIA.  These kinds of major changes in different parts of the world are fascinating. 

 

Edited May 31, 2024 by JoeSchmuckatelli

[kerbiloid]

Hi, Green Energy World!

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Massive-Oil-Find-in-Antarctica-Raises-Concerns.html

Bye, Green Energy World!

***

I believe, the UK must give an example of responsible attitude, and withdraw its claims on the oil region.

Let Antarctica stay white! For penguins! For Greta!

Edited June 9, 2024 by kerbiloid