Hotel26 Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 (edited) 3) Earth is in the Goldilocks[1] zone. Spoiler [1] not the Greta zone Edited November 21, 2023 by Hotel26 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GluttonyReaper Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 20 hours ago, darthgently said: Cloud formation and cover is a vastly chaotic process that is mathematically impossible to accurately model to any real accuracy beyond a few days into the future without perfect knowledge of all inputs and a perfect computer that can simulate faster than reality with no error. Weather prediction is a lucrative industry that attracts a lot of R&D. If you want to see current state of the art cloud formation and cloud cover prediction simply observe the accuracy of cloud predictions hours, days, weeks into the future on weatherunderground.com or an app like Windy (my fave). IPCC models looking decades into the future don't stand a chance of being remotely accurate. Clouds are not the only inherently chaotic process that affects climate Tangential, but I do find it somewhat funny that we're at the point where we can reasonably simulate galaxy and dark matter web formation... but clouds are still something that totally eludes us. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darthgently Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 1 hour ago, GluttonyReaper said: Tangential, but I do find it somewhat funny that we're at the point where we can reasonably simulate galaxy and dark matter web formation... but clouds are still something that totally eludes us. Yes, it seems funny. The underlying math, timescales, complexity of coupling, and useful resolutions are quite different and difficult to really compare. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerbiloid Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 7 hours ago, GluttonyReaper said: we're at the point where we can reasonably simulate galaxy and dark matter web formation Spoiler Not less accurate than any cosmological modelling ever. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoeSchmuckatelli Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 (edited) 9 hours ago, GluttonyReaper said: we can reasonably simulate galaxy and dark matter web Well... There is the S8 tension. I posted about it in the Science News thread recently. Also, those models don't generally account for baryonic matter. Adding baryonic matter to the sim apparently plays havoc with the results. Both modeling systems are trying to simulate what we see and avoid input bias - but that's apparently hard to do. Edited November 22, 2023 by JoeSchmuckatelli Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GluttonyReaper Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 24 minutes ago, JoeSchmuckatelli said: Well... There is the S8 tension. I posted about it in the Science News thread recently. Also, those models don't generally account for baryonic matter. Adding baryonic matter to the sim apparently plays havoc with the results. Both modeling systems are trying to simulate what we see and avoid input bias - but that's apparently hard to do. Bah, you can't toss a pizza in cosmology without hitting some new tension or another... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerbiloid Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 And btw about both quantum entanglement and gluonic bounds... Spoiler ... and the matter-antimatter disparity. Spoiler Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerbiloid Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 Just to add some on-topic nightmare fuel to the thread. Was thinking on it for a while, but still have no idea, if it's to be taken seriously. The Creative Society channel looks rather conspiracy, but the told things look open-sourced, thus I have no opinion, so feel free to have yours. In any case, the humans look innocent, if it consoles somebody. Spoiler Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoeSchmuckatelli Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 ...but what about their farts? https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20231120-wildebeest-and-wolves-a-secret-weapon-against-climate-change "As the science shows, the dynamics of carbon uptake and storage fundamentally changes with the presence or absence of animals," ... "...the story of this large antelope reveals the impact wildlife can have on the amount of carbon present in our planet's atmosphere. While it is tempting to look to technical solutions such as renewable energy as the solution to climate change, we may have other allies in the natural world too. Increasing populations of animals such as wildebeest is a largely overlooked, but valuable way of tackling climate change, according to scientists." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotel26 Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 (edited) 18 hours ago, kerbiloid said: Not less accurate than any cosmological modelling ever. I'm in. I'll take the blue pill, please. Edited November 23, 2023 by Hotel26 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerbiloid Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 13 hours ago, JoeSchmuckatelli said: ...but what about their farts? https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20231120-wildebeest-and-wolves-a-secret-weapon-against-climate-change "As the science shows, the dynamics of carbon uptake and storage fundamentally changes with the presence or absence of animals," If remove all animals, the climate will be repaired. The only question is, who will need that climate? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darthgently Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 Just now, kerbiloid said: If remove all animals, the climate will be repaired. The only question is, who will need that climate? Or, taken to the extreme, the heat death of the universe grants equal peace to all. Perhaps we can settle for a less "ideal" peace in the meantime. And maybe even question the long-sought goal of living in non-interesting peaceful times. tl;dr -- embrace the suck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SunlitZelkova Posted November 28, 2023 Share Posted November 28, 2023 On 11/23/2023 at 2:23 AM, darthgently said: Or, taken to the extreme, the heat death of the universe grants equal peace to all. Perhaps we can settle for a less "ideal" peace in the meantime. And maybe even question the long-sought goal of living in non-interesting peaceful times. tl;dr -- embrace the suck. I’ve been thinking about this post for awhile, and I don’t think the answer is so black and white. A lack of peace in the 1930s and 1940s propelled aviation and rocket research, but if things had been more peaceful in the 1960s, perhaps we could have gone to Mars in the 1980s. I’m also skeptical military research actually benefits civilian society nowadays. Recent news talks about how a good civilian economy is necessary for military innovation, not the other way around. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darthgently Posted November 28, 2023 Share Posted November 28, 2023 1 hour ago, SunlitZelkova said: I’ve been thinking about this post for awhile, and I don’t think the answer is so black and white. A lack of peace in the 1930s and 1940s propelled aviation and rocket research, but if things had been more peaceful in the 1960s, perhaps we could have gone to Mars in the 1980s. I’m also skeptical military research actually benefits civilian society nowadays. Recent news talks about how a good civilian economy is necessary for military innovation, not the other way around. Not sure what was black and white about my post. Seemed nuanced to me at least. But I like your thoughts on the subject Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SunlitZelkova Posted November 28, 2023 Share Posted November 28, 2023 (edited) 10 hours ago, darthgently said: Not sure what was black and white about my post. Seemed nuanced to me at least. But I like your thoughts on the subject I guess what I meant was that peaceful times can be interesting too. 9 hours ago, Pthigrivi said: (snip) No one is saying climate change isn’t happening. I’m not a guy who works the oil fields and denies CC’s existence. I still think we should try to achieve carbon neutrality even if it comes at the expense of offing a fair portion of the fossil fuel industry sooner or later. But I don’t buy the doomerism. It was originally just skepticism at the alarmist views due to some philosophical positions and knowledge of how another scare tactic, that of nuclear winter, doesn’t have much ground to stand on. The recent articles @darthgently and @Hotel26 have raised some valid points about the accuracy of the models being used to predict future climate. Again, I’m not saying I don’t believe it will be warmer in the future, I am just skeptical of the apocalyptic effects it is supposedly going to have. (snip) Edited November 28, 2023 by Gargamel Response to quoted material redacted. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gargamel Posted November 28, 2023 Share Posted November 28, 2023 Some content has been removed. Keep personal and political comments out of the discussion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoeSchmuckatelli Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 Here's a fun little bit of info - Mars affects ocean currents. Yes, that Mars. Resonance = churn https://www.science.org/content/article/mars-may-be-having-profound-impact-earth-s-deep-ocean-currents#:~:text=Every 2.4 million years%2C Mars's,currents and makes them stronger. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
farmerben Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 I'm skeptical because the cycle they claim to have found is 2.4 million years. If it was every 26 months, case closed. But what changes between Earth and Mars on a 2.4 million year cycle? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darthgently Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 (edited) 2 hours ago, farmerben said: I'm skeptical because the cycle they claim to have found is 2.4 million years. If it was every 26 months, case closed. But what changes between Earth and Mars on a 2.4 million year cycle? Perhaps the different orbital inclinations, eccentricity, and LAN make the closest approach not every 26 months, but when relative anomalies sync together and occur when both are very near the relative ascending or descending node? Idk. 2.4M yrs is a very long time. Maybe the Moon also has to be in an arc that abets the influence also. That said, I'm skeptical also Edited March 14 by darthgently Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
farmerben Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 (edited) The article doesn't give any details of what they found and why they think it is a 2.4 million year cycle, let alone how Mars accounts for it. And Venus exerts much more gravitational influence on Earth than Mars does, plus has greater inclination. Edited March 14 by farmerben Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoeSchmuckatelli Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 5 hours ago, farmerben said: The article doesn't give any details of what they found and why they think it is a 2.4 million year cycle, let alone how Mars accounts for it. And Venus exerts much more gravitational influence on Earth than Mars does, plus has greater inclination. Did you look at the original? https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-46171-5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerbiloid Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 It's horrible to imagine what the Earth is doing to Mars every 2.4My. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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