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Strong aurora forecast tonight May 10-11


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Posted (edited)

The K-index is already at 7.67 and likely to go higher. That generally indicates strong auroras. This storm is from a series of coronal mass ejections (CME) earlier in the week. It was originally forecast to arrive tomorrow but the first one traveled faster than expected. There's a good chance more will arrive tomorrow.

I've seen one photo taken from Australia but they are getting sunrise soon. People in northern Europe might soon be getting good views as the sun sets for them.

Me, I'm in USA with too many clouds. I'd have to drive 6+ hours to see clear skies. I hope the clouds break later but the forecast says slim chance.

For more info see https://spaceweather.com/

Edited by DeadJohn
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I have a high chance of clear skies in the northern US. This solar forecast is crazy, I'm definitely going out tonight! I saw a faint aurora from a park about an hour's drive away in December where I've been doing stargazing, I will be back there tonight!

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Posted (edited)

there is some blue patches in the sky, but it looks like clouds are rolling in. we will see.

but i see them all the time, being alaskan. helps if you can get out of the light pollution, then you see them all the time.

Edited by Nuke
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16 minutes ago, Nuke said:

helps if you can get out of the light pollution, then you see them all the time.

Also helps if you're at a high magnetic latitude. Much of Manitoba is at a higher magnetic latitude than even Alaska. Minnesota often sees them for that reason, too.

There's extremely strong activity as of this writing. Minnesota and the Dakotas would have a good view at the moment if there are clear skies.

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/aurora-30-minute-forecast

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25 minutes ago, JoeSchmuckatelli said:

FYI - some dude in KY is posting aurora pics 

People as far south as the Florida Keys are getting photos of Northern Lights. It's not naked eye for them but camera sensors can see it.

 

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Not naked eye for me just now (cleared). Course light pollution for something this faint in town, and with a mountain in the way is an issue.

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50 minutes ago, DeadJohn said:

People as far south as the Florida Keys are getting photos of Northern Lights. It's not naked eye for them but camera sensors can see it.

 

So I was unaware of this and ran back outside to try. 

Might have gotten something! 

Vaguely green / red tinge to the sky - I'll share tomorrow 

Thanks for the tip! 

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Clear skies here, but also light pollution. At best, after ten minutes outside as hidden from the plentiful ambient light as I could get, I could see a haze that could easily be mistaken for high, thin clouds, except it didn’t block the stars. But my iPhone 12 camera saw this ;  MpXDxoy.jpeg

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Posted (edited)

i can faintly see them but they are very pale. there is just too much damn light pollution in the area. i did get some binoculars to see if i could focus on them and get more light, but the shine on the lenses from the street lights just blacks them out. i  tried to find a star to adjust the focus on, but it turned out to be a planet. not sure if venus or jupiter. will check in another hour. i can still hope for a power outage.

Edited by Nuke
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Posted (edited)

Confirmed upgrade to G5, aurorae visible down to 23⁰S (Namibia)/28⁰N (Canaries) at the least.

Edited by DDE
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*one extremely late night later*

That was really impressive. They really filled the sky for long parts of the night. I was out of the city from sundown to 2:00, and even when I got back to the rather bright suburbs they were extremely clear and a bit green, alternating between flashing rapidly and flowing more smoothly. The flashes were almost like lightning. I didn't go to bed till 4:00 :0.0:

The most color I saw was right as it was getting dark, unfortunately, although we did get to see some reds and greens later at times. Just at nightfall there were purples and greens and reds, and I heard they were seen in the city at that time. There were really distinct pillars in the north around 1:00, and overall great aurora ever changing throughought the night.

10 hours ago, JoeSchmuckatelli said:

FYI - some dude in KY is posting aurora pics 

 

Cannot verify if believable - wife's insta.  Still - cool if true 

I believe it - they filled the -southern- half of the sky in Minnesota for many hours.

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Posted (edited)

the sun came up. but by that point they had faded. actually saw them closer to dusk but by the time the sky had darkened they had faded, and i really didn't get a good view. actually comparing to some of the other aurora i seen this is a 1 out of 10. best one i saw was up in anchorage (was 8 or 9 at the time), in the middle of winter. we had red dancing ones that just lasted for hours.

Edited by Nuke
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Posted (edited)

Word is that we might get round 2 this evening. 

https://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/2024/05/11/ohioans-saw-aurora-borealis-friday-may-10/73653302007/

... 

I got my kids up to bring their phones outside, the delay in response meant one kid got to see some green and the other light pollution illuminating an otherwise invisible cloud. 

Learned a lot about cell phone cameras! 

Edited by JoeSchmuckatelli
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i hope a little later, because things seemed to wrap up just as it was getting dark. no guarantee the skys will be clear again.

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The images I got are... not great.  Hand-held cell phone images.  Remarkable that I got anything at all.  At the time I took the pics, I was super stoked to see the colors.  But having sent from phone to PC - they're not worth posting.

Cool for me - but also a mixed bag.  I could tell from the cell that there was something to see - but I couldn't actually see it for myself.  Too much light pollution, etc.

Still - the closest I've ever come to actually viewing the Northern Lights for myself.

(Fingers crossed for tonight)

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