Fossile Fuel Endgame... If We Run Out Is It Really So Bad?

[Spacescifi]

I mean I am not sure TV or movie scifi even addresses this but they SHOULD.

I mean somewhere between the spaceships and warp drives you would think they may run out of fossil fuels at some point.

But even if humanity does or did would it really be so bad?

I have read that cars can be designed to run on cleaner less enviromentally damaging fuels that are renewable but redesigning would be expensive.

My point is that even without fossil fuels there is a good chance we can go to the moon and do the other thing... whatever Kennedy meant by 'other thing' lol.

Methane and natural gas are not fossil fuels right? And so long cows and people have to poop we will always have a lot of both.

We are sitting upon virtually inexhaustible sources of fuel.

Edited November 9, 2022 by Spacescifi

[razark]

1 hour ago, Spacescifi said:

But even if humanity does or did would it really be so bad?

A large amount of our agricultural chemicals come from the petrochemical industry.   No fertilizers means a much lower crop yield.  Lower crop yield means cows and people don't get enough to eat.  Less food -> less people/cows.  Less people/cows -> less poop.  Less poop -> less poopgas for fuel.

 

1 hour ago, Spacescifi said:

We are sitting upon virtually inexhaustible sources of fuel.

Well, if we can't support the large population of either, than no, it's not inexhaustible.  You have to feed something into the front end of the production chain to get a yield.

Edited November 9, 2022 by razark

[Spacescifi]

32 minutes ago, razark said:

A large amount of our agricultural chemicals come from the petrochemical industry.   No fertilizers means a much lower crop yield.  Lower crop yield means cows and people don't get enough to eat.  Less food -> less people/cows.  Less people/cows -> less poop.  Less poop -> less poopgas for fuel.

 

Well, if we can't support the large population of either, than no, it's not inexhaustible.  You have to feed something into the front end of the production chain to get a yield.

 

Wow... so now I see why futurists are banging on about fusion being the hope for the future and why they keep pushing electric power.

[SunlitZelkova]

4 hours ago, Spacescifi said:

My point is that even without fossil fuels there is a good chance we can go to the moon and do the other thing... whatever Kennedy meant by 'other thing' lol.

He said other thingS. He was referring to how not only the Moon shot, but also the country’s efforts to improve the standard of living, implement civil rights, defend against communism and so on were among the other things the US was challenging because the US doesn’t back down when things get hard, but instead digs in and strives ever more valiantly*.

*Kennedy’s opinion and this is historical analysis, not a political statement

ANYWAYS

4 hours ago, Spacescifi said:

But even if humanity does or did would it really be so bad?

If fossil fuels were to run out, there would probably still be alternative sources for such materials, but the upheaval from their loss would cause immense damage.

An exhaustion of fossil fuels would likely be predictable, however. Providers would have an incentive to prepare alternatives so as to not lose their business, while the information would likely be public so other sectors of society could prepare too.

[mikegarrison]

The vast majority of commercially available methane is taken from the ground as a "fossil fuel". It can also be created from coal or oil (which are, of course, also fossil fuels).

Anyway, "running out of oil" appears to have been a misplaced concern. We keep coming up with things like fracking that let us get more and more of it.

However, that means the CO2 levels in our atmosphere just keep going up. It now appears as if the practical limit to fossil fuel consumption is not running out of the stuff but rather the climate choking on the exhaust from burning it.

[Meecrob]

Fracking is an endgame stopgap, not an unlimited new source...especially since we are...as the name suggests...hydraulically fracturing the Earth's crust. Honestly, who thought that was a good idea? Maybe if the US didn't screw up its real estate market in 2008, they wouldn't have had to deal with the oil price hike and thus come up with what is basically a cartoon supervillain's idea of oil extraction. "Lets break the planet to prove it to some Saudis!"

Edited November 9, 2022 by Meecrob

[farmerben]

We know exactly how much coal there is total, and we have used about 1/4 of it.  Recoverable gas could be multiple times the proven reserves.  There is a lot of undiscovered gas and marginally profitable gas.

[darthgently]

We can also make oil from algae and plastic waste, but it costs more.  But who knows, maybe some of the Starships to colonize Mars will be fueled from plastic mined from landfills after "oil runs out", ha.  There is a small contingent of educated scientists who are still holding out the possibility that fossil fuels are abiogenetic, that is they are from geological processes, not just biological remains. So oil will not necessarily run out.  Idk about that

[magnemoe]

57 minutes ago, Meecrob said:

Fracking is an endgame stopgap, not an unlimited new source...especially since we are...as the name suggests...hydraulically fracturing the Earth's crust. Honestly, who thought that was a good idea? Maybe if the US didn't screw up its real estate market in 2008, they wouldn't have had to deal with the oil price hike and thus come up with what is basically a cartoon supervillain's idea of oil extraction. "Lets break the planet to prove it to some Saudis!"

Extracting all that oil in the ground below is more of an issue as it sink. In Norway they had to raise platforms as the sea bottom was sinking. This is true everywhere and also apply to ground water who is often more of an problem, granted ground water is replaceable but refill rate is limited. 
An obvious issue with fracking is that the piping all the way down has to handle the high pressure. 

[magnemoe]

18 minutes ago, darthgently said:

We can also make oil from algae and plastic waste, but it costs more.  But who knows, maybe some of the Starships to colonize Mars will be fueled from plastic mined from landfills after "oil runs out", ha.  There is a small contingent of educated scientists who are still holding out the possibility that fossil fuels are abiogenetic, that is they are from geological processes, not just biological remains. So oil will not necessarily run out.  Idk about that

Not far from me they build lots of housing on top of an old landfill. They had an issue with methane buildup in the drains, they ended up building an tiny gas field, the gas is piped to container sized facility who preferably use it to help heat water for heating but flare it during summer. Not enough to collect I think but enough to heat water. 

CO2 for soda and beer on tap come from production of synthetic fertilizer as its an clean chemical byproduct fit for food items. But for the fertilizer producers its an waste they get paid for. 
So Europe experienced an CO2 shortage some years ago then most of the fertilizer plants shut down for maintenance during the summer after the main use of fertilizer was over. 

[darthgently]

1 hour ago, magnemoe said:

the gas is piped to container sized facility who preferably use it to help heat water for heating but flare it during summer. Not enough to collect I think but enough to heat water. 

Many sewage treatment stations in Topeka Kansas use the methane byproduct for heating the station and such.  I'm sure the same is done elsewhere, that is just an example I know of

[StrandedonEarth]

8 minutes ago, darthgently said:

Many sewage treatment stations in Topeka Kansas use the methane byproduct for heating the station and such.  I'm sure the same is done elsewhere, that is just an example I know of

So does the treatment plant for Greater Vancouver, on Annacis Island 

[wumpus]

First: if we burn *all* the fossil fuels, the Earth will probably be too hot for humans to survive.  Terraforming planets is presumably easier tech than "warp drives", so this might not be an issue.

Fertilyzers, plastics, and other chemical production (don't ask how many chemicals require methane feedstocks)  will all be willing to pay more for hydrocarbons than its use as an energy source, so presumably fuel usage will be disproportionately small when they are "all used up".

Finally, it doesn't take "natural magic" to generate hydrocarbons.  Photosynthesis is just means of solar production of hydrocarbons, and certain decay processes produce traditional fuel sources out of these hydrocarbons.  With enough power sources (presumably nuclear, but perhaps we'd have enough solar/wind/hydro) it isn't that hard to produce similar hydrocarbons from H₂O and CO₂.

[Gargamel]

13 hours ago, mikegarrison said:

Anyway, "running out of oil" appears to have been a misplaced concern. We keep coming up with things like fracking that let us get more and more of it.

There was a BP memo about 10 years ago, once hosted on their main website, since removed about 5 years ago (and Yes, I personally saw it), that estimated that there was about 40 years worth of easily obtainable (including fracking) petroleum still available to us.    Once that supply is gone, the cost of oil will skyrocket as the extraction costs also skyrocket.    So even if you don't believe in the anthropomorphic effect on the climate through the burning of fossil fuels, then at the very least let's try to get our infrastructure in place to avoid that price crunch.   There's a lot of stuff made from oil, just not fuel, and it'd be nice if we can keep oil cheap enough to not bring around the fall of civilization. 

7 hours ago, Meecrob said:

Maybe if the US didn't screw up its real estate market in 2008, they wouldn't have had to deal with the oil price hike and thus come up with what is basically a cartoon supervillain's idea of oil extraction.

The market crash in '08 caused oil futures to plummet, just about halving prices, and they continued on a downward trend until the pandemic hit, which caused a huge drop, then spike due to supply chain.  

https://www.macrotrends.net/1369/crude-oil-price-history-chart

[KSK]

7 hours ago, Gargamel said:

There was a BP memo about 10 years ago, once hosted on their main website, since removed about 5 years ago (and Yes, I personally saw it), that estimated that there was about 40 years worth of easily obtainable (including fracking) petroleum still available to us.    Once that supply is gone, the cost of oil will skyrocket as the extraction costs also skyrocket.    So even if you don't believe in the anthropomorphic effect on the climate through the burning of fossil fuels, then at the very least let's try to get our infrastructure in place to avoid that price crunch.   There's a lot of stuff made from oil, just not fuel, and it'd be nice if we can keep oil cheap enough to not bring around the fall of civilization. 

That would be nice but instead I fully expect BP and their ilk to carry on making a fat profit by selling the dwindling amounts of readily available oil at ever increasing prices and then demand subsidies (or just smile and pocket the offered subsidies when they're deemed politically necessary) to start extracting the harder to reach stuff.

Sources:  current economic circumstances in my country followed by an OPEC decision to reduce extraction to maintain profits, plus the general response to the recent pandemic, which was to make a fast buck from it if at all possible. 

I have zero faith that anything as abstract as the fall of civilization is going to get a look in over the next quarterly results.

[kerbiloid]

Whales. They can be saved and herded for blubber.

Dishonored 3: Back to retrofuture.

[SunlitZelkova]

8 hours ago, Gargamel said:

Once that supply is gone, the cost of oil will skyrocket as the extraction costs also skyrocket.

What with all of the current events that have happened over the past few years, tacking on future $8,000 per gallon gas prices makes it seem like Fallout is becoming real life.

1 hour ago, KSK said:

I have zero faith that anything as abstract as the fall of civilization is going to get a look in over the next quarterly results.

“The fall of civilization” is very different from comparably minor events like pandemics and wars. It is also bad for business.

I am not a “true believer” in corporate wisdom, but I am not pessimistic either.

Note that unlike climate change, the exhaustion of fossil fuels is something that can be “seen” and directly endangers the companies themselves.

[Gargamel]

5 hours ago, KSK said:

13 hours ago, Gargamel said:

That would be nice but instead I fully expect BP and their ilk to carry on making a fat profit

And that’s why they redacted the memo from their servers.   You can still find copies  of it floating around, but since it’s no longer hosted by them, the authenticity of it can be called into question.   

[KSK]

8 hours ago, SunlitZelkova said:

What with all of the current events that have happened over the past few years, tacking on future $8,000 per gallon gas prices makes it seem like Fallout is becoming real life.

“The fall of civilization” is very different from comparably minor events like pandemics and wars. It is also bad for business.

I am not a “true believer” in corporate wisdom, but I am not pessimistic either.

Note that unlike climate change, the exhaustion of fossil fuels is something that can be “seen” and directly endangers the companies themselves.

You would think that giving customers cancer would be bad for business too. Didn't stop the tobacco companies. 

With sufficient lobbying and FUD spreading, the status quo (and profits) can be maintained in the face of all evidence to the contrary. I expect the same to happen here.

Yes, I am a climate change pessimist.  Especially after seeing the utter farce that was humanity's attempt at a coordinated global response to the Covid pandemic.

Edited November 10, 2022 by KSK

[miklkit]

Many decades ago the science fiction authors got interested in our future.  They correctly predicted the population boom and global warming.  Then they split, with some predicting a transition to fusion power and some predicting Mad Max.   I am leaning towards our future being Mad Max.

[kerbiloid]

To be Mad Max they need petrol.

[magnemoe]

5 hours ago, Gargamel said:

And that’s why they redacted the memo from their servers.   You can still find copies  of it floating around, but since it’s no longer hosted by them, the authenticity of it can be called into question.   

And i strongly suspect it dates back before the effect of fracking was realized in the industry.  
Even water  injection took an long time to sink years after it was standard. 
Or look the space launch industry it had an long lag before understanding that first stage reuse worked and still most do not get that second stage reuse is the future.


 

[SunlitZelkova]

3 hours ago, KSK said:

You would think that giving customers cancer would be bad for business too. Didn't stop the tobacco companies.

Fair point.

3 hours ago, KSK said:

Yes, I am a climate change pessimist.  Especially after seeing the utter farce that was humanity's attempt at a coordinated global response to the Covid pandemic.

Agreed. I just think that will be humanity’s downfall, not resource exhaustion.

[darthgently]

22 minutes ago, SunlitZelkova said:

Fair point.

Agreed. I just think that will be humanity’s downfall, not resource exhaustion.

Not sure.  I have begun to wonder of late if the main great filter on intelligent life is surviving species-level existentialist self hatred.  Imagine one of the ecoterror groups that considers humanity a disease on the planet playing with viruses.  They discuss such things with a straight face.  They don't have to have millions of followers, just a few whacko virologists and/or molecular biologists, the ability to understand and acquire scientific papers, and a few million dollars in lab equipment

Then there are the groups that don't want to kill everyone, just the "excess", which never includes their enlightened selves, of course

Edited November 10, 2022 by darthgently

[Superluminal Gremlin]

On 11/9/2022 at 8:04 PM, mikegarrison said:

Anyway, "running out of oil" appears to have been a misplaced concern. We keep coming up with things like fracking that let us get more and more of it.

Can we please not get into heated conversations about peak oil because it won't end well

I mean mathematically it does work, but I must agree that new technologies can extended the peak, and have, but not postpone it indefinitely.

We are done talking about this. No more. It will just result in this peaceful thread being locked

If you want to, just DM on the forums.

 

3 hours ago, SunlitZelkova said:

humanity’s downfall

Humanity's downfall will be humanity itself. We have a natural hunger for self-depletion, violence and greediness. We may just be one of the only species to end up killing ourselves, not relying on some other event like a meteor, or the weather. Resource exploitation may be part of the reason. When the "cheap" oil goes, and the price of oil skyrockets, many extremely important industries will have a greatly reduced capacity, like mainly the automotive and transport. Then the world may slowly turn into a mess, and we may just end up all dying. However, this is extraordinarily unlikely, as maybe all the governments may just join forces to try and stop the madness. I'm holding out for the hero's who can do that.

Edited November 11, 2022 by Superluminal Gremlin