Predicting the near and far future of KSP 2

[Tazooka]

I'm interested to see what the community thinks the timeframe will be for the future of KSP 2 and its updates

There is no wrong answer! (unless you're a time traveller)

Edited March 20, 2023 by Tazooka
"within" changed to "~"

[regex]

I have a feeling they're on three week sprints so hopefully we'll be seeing a tri-weekly patch for the next few months until things are more stable. Then we'll get a delay in patches while we wait for the science. Past that, couldn't say.

[The Aziz]

If they're going for update per 3 weeks, and there's still 40 weeks left in 2023, there's a chance for 13 updates just this year.

Edited March 20, 2023 by The Aziz

[TLTay]

I think it'll get a couple more updates before the T2 yearly earnings are reported, then it will be cancelled since it'll be another 3-5 years until complete.  It's a complex, expensive title with a smaller customer base that has encountered significant setbacks and has massive technical debt. It'd be a poor business choice to continue to fund it. I think they're keeping it on a ventilator until yearly earnings, then the axe will fall.

Unpopular opinion warning. Oops, did I put that afterward?

Edited March 20, 2023 by TLTay

[Kerbart]

5 minutes ago, The Aziz said:

If they're going for update per 3 weeks, and there's still 40 weeks left in 2023, there's a chance for 13 updates just this year.

Once the patches have lifted the game out of the "broken/unplayable" bin (not my words but many consider it that way) the frequency will drop considerable, probably to 6-8 weeks if not longer. I'm also assuming that right now the team is working full throttle, you can only do that for a limited time before everyone burns out. I'd say half a dozen updates for the remainder of the year with Science rolled out in the second half of the year and a continued focus on bugs and QOL improvements before the next EA milestone is published.

Science will be Make Or Break for many, as it will give an indication what the previous three years was spent on. If it's merely a polished version of KSP1 science there's going to be a lot of (justified) disgruntlement. With the pressure slightly off, they probably want to make sure it's released in a much better state than what the game currently is in.

2 minutes ago, TLTay said:

Unpopular opinion warning. Oops, did I put that afterward?

I don't like it but you do have a point.

[TomKerbal]

1 hour ago, regex said:

I have a feeling they're on three week sprints so hopefully we'll be seeing a tri-weekly patch for the next few months until things are more stable. Then we'll get a delay in patches while we wait for the science. Past that, couldn't say.

And many developers getting a hearth attack or leaving the company. Not a good idea. And what we can see already in patch 1 : there a new bugs introduced, always an indicator for hasty working. So they should do it in 8 weeks intervalls, without sprints. Much better I think, for everyone.

[Stephensan]

with how big just one update fixed some issues, i dont doubt we will have a very playable game at the end of the year, if not had 1 if not close to 2 "segments" finished or about to be released.

 

once the major issues are out of the way, which is right now where we are at i can see that each segmeant will go way faster than what we are thinking.

 

so im expecting 

Super Long Fixing Bugs Segment before any stages are coming out, and i expect it to come quickly afterwards for each segment. unless each segment completely bricks it to day 1 launch day performance. 

[The Aziz]

12 minutes ago, TLTay said:

technical debt

I swear people are shoving this phrase everywhere these days, ever since some youtuber used it to describe KSP1 or whatever.

[JoeSchmuckatelli]

My opinion is that we moved from an Alpha state to a Beta state in one patch.   I have a weird feeling that we are playing essentially the version that they let the ESA players access (compare MN style and yellow scrolling warning bug that were presented in the pre launch ESA vids with what we had during the first 3 weeks).  We didn't have skinny, easy to use MNs, or the scrolling bug -but we have both now.  Why we got what we got is beyond me.

That said I think it will take more than one more patch to put us in the state I expected EA to be in when they described the Roadmap.  So I'm guessing by the end of April we will be EA and only waiting for the work on the roadmap stages.

Months ago I predicted Sandbox would only take 2-3 months and then Science would hit.  I don't see any reason to change that... with the caveat of 2-3 months after it's in the EA state.   I'd say 3-6 months later we get the next stage.

MP?  Waiting for Godot 

Edited March 20, 2023 by JoeSchmuckatelli

[zeekzeek22]

I think the initial bugcrushing period will last 3-6 months, then I think the major updates will each come ~2-3 months apart. In a lot of EAs, they haven't even started the roadmap content before each segment is released, whereas IG has commented that they have all the systems working buggily in internal builds, and just need to polish/wrangle them (most of which will be done by this initial bugcrushing). I can't intelligently disagree with the fears about TT axing it, because I'm not the person with the spreadsheet with the cost and projected sales. Those numbers could look great, or absolutely doomful.

As someone in the camp of belief that they didn't plan to do an EA, I think they expected to have 1.0 finished in the early fall, but got set back a few months putting the EA version together.

[regex]

40 minutes ago, TomKerbal said:

And many developers getting a hearth attack or leaving the company. Not a good idea. And what we can see already in patch 1 : there a new bugs introduced, always an indicator for hasty working. So they should do it in 8 weeks intervalls, without sprints. Much better I think, for everyone.

Sprints are part of a normal development cycle for Agile houses. I have no idea if they use Agile but it's not exactly uncommon in the business. With KSP2 that's two weeks of development followed by a week of QA. That's a pretty relaxed pace and all their tickets should reflect that, no need for crunch.

[regex]

55 minutes ago, Kerbart said:

If it's merely a polished version of KSP1 science there's going to be a lot of (justified) disgruntlement.

Indeed, that would be one of the few things that would immediately 180 my opinion of the game.

[JoeSchmuckatelli]

6 minutes ago, regex said:

Indeed, that would be one of the few things that would immediately 180 my opinion of the game.

I don't think they're going that route.  My reading of the progression system is that it's tied to the resource extraction mini game.  Science should help you identify the resources and anomalies, etc. But we are unlikely to get 'do a crew report on Minmus to unlock spaceplane landing gear'. 

[regex]

4 minutes ago, JoeSchmuckatelli said:

I don't think they're going that route.

I didn't really say they were, just that if they did I absolutely agree about the justified disgruntlement (or in my case, disgust).

[Tazooka]

4 minutes ago, JoeSchmuckatelli said:

I don't think they're going that route.  My reading of the progression system is that it's tied to the resource extraction mini game.  Science should help you identify the resources and anomalies, etc. But we are unlikely to get 'do a crew report on Minmus to unlock spaceplane landing gear'. 

Isn't science and resources going to be two seperate updates though, and quiet a while between them

[JoeSchmuckatelli]

6 minutes ago, regex said:

I didn't really say they were, just that if they did I absolutely agree about the justified disgruntlement (or in my case, disgust).

I hear you - a bunch of us spit balled the improvements we'd like to see last year.  Doubt any of it will be in the game - but we gave it a try. 

4 minutes ago, Tazooka said:

Isn't science and resources going to be two seperate updates though, and quiet a while between them

Yes. 

They have been particularly cagy about what Science will bring.  So many of us hope it is a real game changer. 

I'm just going off interviews where Nate referred to resource management and progression - and effectively the economy of the game isn't science points or money but building colonies and making fuel outposts and setting up automated resource runs.  (You have to manually do each once) 

The thing is - Science gives Kerbals something to do besides plant flags and waddle at 3x.

Edited March 20, 2023 by JoeSchmuckatelli

[VlonaldKerman]

2 hours ago, JoeSchmuckatelli said:

But we are unlikely to get 'do a crew report on Minmus to unlock spaceplane landing gear'

I think a system like Kerbalism science would work- automated experiments that run in the background and take time to complete. I do like having science points which I can use to unlock new parts. I think science should also help identify things like resources and anomalies, as well.

Basically, in my mind I'm picturing a merging of SCANsat and Kerbalism mods when it comes to science for KSP 2.

 

3 hours ago, TLTay said:

I think it'll get a couple more updates before the T2 yearly earnings are reported, then it will be cancelled since it'll be another 3-5 years until complete.  It's a complex, expensive title with a smaller customer base that has encountered significant setbacks and has massive technical debt. It'd be a poor business choice to continue to fund it. I think they're keeping it on a ventilator until yearly earnings, then the axe will fall.

Unpopular opinion warning. Oops, did I put that afterward?

I think this is an unfortunate possibility. I've been concerned about this since the preview event footage. To me, the price is what lends credence to this theory.

 

3 hours ago, TomKerbal said:

there a new bugs introduced, always an indicator for hasty working

This happens all the time, hasty working or not.

Edited March 20, 2023 by VlonaldKerman

[RocketRockington]

"1. When do you think the game will be at a similar level of KSP 1? (minimal bugs, science mode & stable"

Your parenthetical here does not seem like KSP1 equivalency.  Even KSP2 with the full road map could  still be missing many things that KSP1 has in terms of QOL and smaller features.

[TomKerbal]

2 hours ago, VlonaldKerman said:

I think a system like Kerbalism science would work- automated experiments that run in the background and take time to complete. I do like having science points which I can use to unlock new parts. I think science should also help identify things like resources and anomalies, as well.

Basically, in my mind I'm picturing a merging of SCANsat and Kerbalism mods when it comes to science for KSP 2.

 

I think this is an unfortunate possibility. I've been concerned about this since the preview event footage. To me, the price is what lends credence to this theory.

 

This happens all the time, hasty working or not.

Well, I did many bugfixes in my career, most of them did not gerate sideeffects. But this patch is very complex and the program is still very uncompleted, so you may be right in this case. But not remove the warp console when pressing the F2 key? This was clearly overlooked in the tests. Not a big deal and not a big problem. But there is of course a high pressure at the moment , that's what I was trying to say. And I don't like sprints ;-)

And to add to that, of course I had side effects with my bugfixes, some were even extremely creepy! Another reason not to rush I would say.

Edited March 20, 2023 by TomKerbal

[Stephensan]

5 hours ago, Tazooka said:

Isn't science and resources going to be two seperate updates though, and quiet a while between them

yeah still doesn't make sense and i question it every time i see it, why not have all the resources in one patch, but separate it by two entire segments. 

[cocoscacao]

16 minutes ago, Stephensan said:

yeah still doesn't make sense and i question it every time i see it, why not have all the resources in one patch, but separate it by two entire segments. 

Not just that... Interstellar travel will probably use some exotic fuel that has to be synthesized outside of Kerbin. So how do we first get interstellar stuff, then resource gathering? I wonder...

I'm assuming science, resource gathering and interstellar will somehow be connected. You grab surface sample of Vall, bring it to the lab, and realise that if you melt it, you get the exotic fuel for exotic engines or something...

Edited March 21, 2023 by cocoscacao

[RocketRockington]

7 minutes ago, cocoscacao said:

Not just that... Interstellar travel will probably use some exotic fuel that has to be synthesized outside of Kerbin. So how do we first get interstellar stuff, then resource gathering? I wonder...

Yeah I also don't get how the colony game will be present without resource gathering.  Is ISRU not the point of colonies?  

Well the roadmap is short on details, best not to read too much into it

Edited March 21, 2023 by RocketRockington

[cocoscacao]

Just now, RocketRockington said:

Wellz the roadmap is short on details

And looks incomplete, from what we can see. There's additional "card" after multiplayer. But what's on it?

[RocketRockington]

Just now, cocoscacao said:

And looks incomplete, from what we can see. There's additional "card" after multiplayer. But what's on it?

$40 DLC

[cocoscacao]

Just now, RocketRockington said:

$40 DLC

Still better and more worth than most of the live-service stream games these days. But what can be included? More parts? Story driven campaign?