Space Race 2(?) Discussion Thread

[TwoCalories]

Welp, this may have been predicted, but it's official: It's a new space race between United States and China! It's looking to have a lot of heat on it, with all the national security issues, protecting Lunar water, etc., etc.

Looks like Space Race 2.0 is on, everyone!

 

[SunlitZelkova]

I think the US will initially lead due to having Starship, but China will catch up by the end of the 2030s once Long March 9 becomes operational.

I think Artemis III will be delayed to as late as 2029, resulting in China landing only one or two years after the US.

So it will be a tie more or less.

The interesting thing about this time around is that there is no deadline for anything, like how whoever landed on the Moon first won. It's basically just two countries trying to do as much stuff as possible ahead of each other.

[kerbiloid]

Sailor Moon.

She'll keep watching the desperate attempts of the humans.

[tater]

There is no race to the Moon, humans already landed there. If there's any endpoint here it would have to be a permanently occupied base, or operational ISRU facilities, or something like that, IMO, not the first to go back.

 

 

[Spaceception]

Other: India surprises everyone with a crewed Lunar mission. 

Russia doesn't stand a chance, I'd be surprised if they get the pieces of their space station into orbit before 2030.

Spoiler

 

And ESA doesn't have any SHLV development, or crew transport (yet), or Lunar landing development. They're going to collaborate with NASA rather than go it alone.

I actually do think of this as a second race. The US are building back up the capability we abandoned decades ago, while China is trying to upstage us by getting there first. But I agree that the endpoint can't be another flags and footprints mission. It will be won by who can establish permanent surface operations first. And in that, I think the US has a stronger chance of succeeding, we have numerous public and private plans for Lunar missions, on top of a quickly expanding launch market that could support it once it gets going.

As for who lands "first" this time around? I think that's harder to say. The US has 2 landers in development, while China has 1. But the US also has to develop more complex technology first that would enable long-term missions, while China looks like they're just making a lander that can work for now, like we did during Apollo. So it likely depends on whether or not the US runs into significant roadblocks in development.

Edited October 30, 2023 by Spaceception

[tater]

1 hour ago, Spaceception said:

As for who lands "first" this time around? I think that's harder to say. The US has 2 landers in development, while China has 1. But the US also has to develop more complex technology first that would enable long-term missions, while China looks like they're just making a lander that can work for now, like we did during Apollo. So it likely depends on whether or not the US runs into significant roadblocks in development.

Landing (and returning safely) just like Apollo is merely winning second place from the 1960s vs the actual competition which didn't finish the race.

It's useful for the US to paint it as a race so NASA can get more sweet, sweet money.

 

[Codraroll]

59 minutes ago, Spaceception said:

So it likely depends on whether or not the US runs into significant roadblocks in development.

To be fair, China can also run into significant roadblocks in development. It's hard to tell what challenges they have yet to overcome, with their slightly more opaque PR strategy than virtually any other country out there.

But yeah, at the time scales involved, one cannot entirely rule out India either. The probability is very small, but they are learning and have put some impressive milestones behind them already. If they are lucky with the roadblock roulette while China and the US aren't, they might be able to cobble something together.

[magnemoe]

25 minutes ago, Codraroll said:

To be fair, China can also run into significant roadblocks in development. It's hard to tell what challenges they have yet to overcome, with their slightly more opaque PR strategy than virtually any other country out there.

But yeah, at the time scales involved, one cannot entirely rule out India either. The probability is very small, but they are learning and have put some impressive milestones behind them already. If they are lucky with the roadblock roulette while China and the US aren't, they might be able to cobble something together.

Long March 9 was changed from an 2.5 stage rocket to an 2 stage Starship copy. Wider but not much better performance but they might be cautious or don't have as good engines. 
Anyway I say it was an smart move for an heavy lift rocket, no reason why Starship should not work, yes reentry and landing will be an new challenge, an target and unlike the shuttle if the landing zone is safe or remote enough keep trying.
But 2030 for first launch of long march 9 sounds late. 

[Kerbalsaurus]

I feel that a space race really isn't something we shouldn't be getting into again. This could lead to another cold war, and the modern U.S. is much more violent than it was back then. And what would this Space Race even prove anyway? It's not like we're fighting over ideologies. At this point, we don't even hate China because they're communist. We hate them because they're Chinese. Also, what would the goal even be? China's nowhere near finishing the Long March 9, Elon Musk is too stuck up to fix anything with Starship, and congress has no faith in NASA anymore. And Russia's, well, Russia. I'm sure I'll be chewed out thoroughly for this, but I feel the future of space exploration should be based on collaboration, not competition.

[Royalswissarmyknife]

40 minutes ago, Kerbalsaurus said:

China's nowhere near finishing the Long March 9, 

I think they are using the Long March 7 for their first lunar missions.

[SunlitZelkova]

6 hours ago, Spaceception said:

I actually do think of this as a second race. The US are building back up the capability we abandoned decades ago, while China is trying to upstage us by getting there first.

China is actually not trying to get there first. They have explicitly stated they won’t land people there until 2030- five years later than the current American goal.

5 hours ago, tater said:

Landing (and returning safely) just like Apollo is merely winning second place from the 1960s vs the actual competition which didn't finish the race.

It's useful for the US to paint it as a race so NASA can get more sweet, sweet money.

 

It should be noted Bill Nelson has tried to paint the possibility of… someone else (you know who)… getting there first as risking a crisis if that certain someone tries to claim territory on the Moon.

Regardless of whether that’s a realistic scenario, officials have included getting there first as a major goal.

7 hours ago, Spaceception said:

Other: India surprises everyone with a crewed Lunar mission. 

6 hours ago, Codraroll said:

But yeah, at the time scales involved, one cannot entirely rule out India either. The probability is very small, but they are learning and have put some impressive milestones behind them already. If they are lucky with the roadblock roulette while China and the US aren't, they might be able to cobble something together.

I’d be highly skeptical. India has publicly stated they won’t land a person on the Moon until the 2040s. That’s basically a goal with the same level of commitment as NASA has stated it wants to send people to Mars in the 2030s.

5 hours ago, magnemoe said:

But 2030 for first launch of long march 9 sounds late.

I think it will be delayed to the 2030s. They are focusing on the Long March 10 now.

3 hours ago, Kerbalsaurus said:

I feel that a space race really isn't something we shouldn't be getting into again. This could lead to another cold war, and the modern U.S. is much more violent than it was back then. And what would this Space Race even prove anyway? It's not like we're fighting over ideologies. At this point, we don't even hate China because they're communist. We hate them because they're Chinese. Also, what would the goal even be? China's nowhere near finishing the Long March 9, Elon Musk is too stuck up to fix anything with Starship, and congress has no faith in NASA anymore. And Russia's, well, Russia. I'm sure I'll be chewed out thoroughly for this, but I feel the future of space exploration should be based on collaboration, not competition.

The reason there is a “Second Space Race”* is because there already are tensions in the world.

There isn’t a goal, it’s just a race to do as much as possible.

3 hours ago, Royalswissarmyknife said:

I think they are using the Long March 7 for their first lunar missions.

Long March 7 is a dinky LEO rocket like Falcon 9. They are using a new SHLV called Long March 10 for their lunar missions. It’s like SLS but actually useful to some extent, and reusable.

Long March 9 is a Starship equivalent, but with no reusable upper stage.

[Spaceception]

57 minutes ago, SunlitZelkova said:

China is actually not trying to get there first. They have explicitly stated they won’t land people there until 2030- five years later than the current American goal.

True, but 2025 wasn't going to happen in the first place, and I'm personally leaning towards 2027/28 for Artemis III's earliest landing date. All of SpaceX's testing will need time, reuse, building up Starship's flight rate, refueling in orbit reliably.  If anything is substantially delayed, it could be the early 2030s when we land, in which case China has a shot even if they're not making a push. Granted, that is dependent on not having delays themselves/overestimating their own schedule for the world, and it's more likely both will slip but the US still makes it first. 

57 minutes ago, SunlitZelkova said:

I’d be highly skeptical. India has publicly stated they won’t land a person on the Moon until the 2040s. That’s basically a goal with the same level of commitment as NASA has stated it wants to send people to Mars in the 2030s.

I know, I was kind of just joking there since there was an "other" option. Slightly off topic, I honestly feel there's a possibility that India gets humans to the Moon before Russia does, if they can't stop their space program from spiraling and riding on the work of the Soviets.

[TwoCalories]

I did a little research, and it seems that this new "Space Race" is to the Moon again, obviously. It's more than just going back, though. The rich deposits of water ice are a particularly high-value resource on the Moon, and only in certain places. There's all that stuff about national security and the fears that China will militarize space and blah blah. It's probably just all politics.

Either way, the US is most likely to win the so-called "Space Race 2". NASA already has a working Lunar crew vehicle, and they have a date for the first crewed flight. These are two things that (AFAIK) no other country can say about their space program.

[Nuke]

let india and china try to outdo eachother for firsts, meanwhile we work on the boring part of establishing the essential space infrastructure. specifically, cheap reusable launch capability. we will let the others prove their dominance, just to say "hold my beer" at a later date.

[kerbiloid]

I believe, the second space race will finish like the first one did, with lack of purpose. Actually, it's just a season 2 of the series.

Before the portable D+D or D+3He reactors get available, there is nothing to do about industry there.

The Moon is not just another continent on the Earth, where you can found a base camp, then undertake sorties into the wildlands.
No water, no food, only a desert of highly abrasive ash.
So, you can't even run by rovers far from the base. You need rocket shuttles, and a lot of fuel to be delivered. Nice for KSP, but as viable for irl, ats Jules Verne fantasies.
Thus, a big lunar base doesn't provide any additional capability to separated lunar flights, which can be more easily provided with robots, until your local industrial infrastructure allows to mine the surface for minerals.

A huge lunar telescope is not a problem of near future. Intelligence or military purposes are also highly doubtful now, compared to the 1950s.

So, the only real purpose of the base is to plant a flag and claim the territory is yours, but this can be easily disproven by a single nuke, or a lunar minefield, set by other race sides. Unlikely somebody will risk with WWIII (IV ?) just for eliminated lunar base.

Thus, I believe that the Moon campaign will be a thing by the end of the century, when the portable fusion reactors will be available, and the posthuman civilisation will send some of its elementary biological items to the Moon and the Mars.

[ItanMark]

On 10/30/2023 at 8:18 PM, Kerbalsaurus said:

I feel that a space race really isn't something we shouldn't be getting into again. This could lead to another cold war, and the modern U.S. is much more violent than it was back then. And what would this Space Race even prove anyway? It's not like we're fighting over ideologies. At this point, we don't even hate China because they're communist. We hate them because they're Chinese. Also, what would the goal even be? China's nowhere near finishing the Long March 9, Elon Musk is too stuck up to fix anything with Starship, and congress has no faith in NASA anymore. And Russia's, well, Russia. I'm sure I'll be chewed out thoroughly for this, but I feel the future of space exploration should be based on collaboration, not competition.

But competition is a catalyst for progress - look how much did the space industry develop during the USA vs soviets race. 

2 minutes ago, ItanMark said:

But competition is a catalyst for progress - look how much did the space race industry developed during the USA vs soviets race. 

Also, the tech, info and skills that we gained from the space race like rendezvous, general usage of solar panels, satellites etc. Is really valuable, so while the second space race will definitely be kinda threatening it will surely lead to fastened technology development.

Edited November 5, 2023 by ItanMark

[TwoCalories]

To be honest, I'm not completely sure what I think of Space Race 2.

Competition definitely has driven progress, as @ItanMark said. A second space race would give more drive for progression, but is it even really that much of a race? NASA has already shown that they can land on the Moon, and they're already way ahead in the race. China currently has no operational crewed Lunar vehicle, as far as I know.

Either way, China and Russia are planning an international research station on the Moon's south pole, not some military base. With an international base, China and Russia, as well as several more countries are putting together their technology to achieve things greater than what they can do by themselves.

Maybe there's something to be learned here.

[Codraroll]

2 hours ago, TwoCalories said:

Either way, China and Russia are planning an international research station on the Moon's south pole, not some military base. With an international base, China and Russia, as well as several more countries are putting together their technology to achieve things greater than what they can do by themselves.

Maybe there's something to be learned here.

Might as well say "just China" there, because they are the ones to do all the lifting. The Russian space program has become too fraught with budget cuts and corruption to produce anything but Powerpoint presentations and visionary brochures. What's left is essentially repurposed for the military (as there is a certain lack of other customers). Crewed spaceflight isn't likely to go anywhere after the ISS, certainly not to the Chinese space station, which orbits at a too low inclination for the Russians to reach it. The latest Chinese statements on a lunar program have dropped all mentions of Russian hardware. Anything Russia could feasibly assist with, China has the means to do alone. Expect Russia to keep issuing promises of a lunar program, however. Promises are inexpensive and can be produced in much greater quantities than hardware or flight-hours.